The Browns are marching toward the postseason, and the Jets nearly gave away a win to the lowly Commanders last week. Cleveland is more than a touchdown favorite at home. However, both teams have intriguing fantasy options. Each squad also has top-end talent.
Game: New York Jets at Cleveland Browns
Spread: CLE -7.5
Over/Under: 34.5 Points
Jets Analysis: New York's quarterback carousel has been putrid this season. Nevertheless, per RotoViz's pace app, they've had a 64% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 13. Cleveland's opponents also had a 66% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 13, tied for the second-highest rate in the NFL. Toss in that the Jets are 7.5-point underdogs, and the passing attack should be busy this week.
Trevor Siemian is the trigger man. He's not a must-use player. Still, the passing volume is favorable. Garrett Wilson is the team's top passing-game weapon. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the second-year wide receiver was first on the team in routes (93), first in targets (20), second in receptions (12) and first in receiving yards (105) in the previous two weeks, when Siemian relieved an injured Zach Wilson and started once.
Wilson has an attractive matchup in this contest. According to The 33rd Team, Wilson has had a 49.9% slot rate this season and spiked as high as 61.5% against the Broncos. Meanwhile, the Browns were tied for the third-most DraftKings (25.6) points per game allowed to slots and ceded the third-most FanDuel (21.1) points per game to them since Week 13.
Jason Brownlee will also have opportunities from the slot, aligning there 48.1% of the time in his admittedly limited playing time this season. However, the rookie wide receiver ran the second-most routes (45) for the Jets in Week 16. Brownlee has primarily been a non-factor this season but scored his first professional touchdown on an eight-yard reception last week. Brownlee's floor is zero. Nonetheless, his route participation last week was excellent, making him a viable punt this week.
Tyler Conklin's a useful cog in Gang Green's passing game. Since Week 15, he has been second on the Jets in routes (71), third in targets (13), third in receptions (eight), and third in receiving yards (54). The veteran tight end had at least three receptions in the previous five games, reaching at least 33 receiving yards four times.
Conklin isn't a world-beater, but the Browns should bring the best out of him. Since Week 13, tight ends have scored the third-most DK (17.5) and FD (14.0) points per game against Cleveland.
Breece Hall likely won't have a favorable game script for toting the rock. Yet, he's the club's lead running back, handling at least a 60% snap share in eight of nine games since the club's bye. Furthermore, Hall has handled 65.0% of the backfield's rush share the past two weeks, toting the rock 26 times for 107 yards and two rushing touchdowns.
The speedy sophomore is also an asset in the passing game. He had 16 targets, 12 receptions and 96 receiving yards last week. Hall had a monstrous effort last week and is a high-ceiling, game-script-proof player. He's one of the top options on the slate.
Israel Abanikanda has bypassed Dalvin Cook on the team's depth chart. The rookie had snap shares of 38% and 18% in Week 15 and Week 16. Additionally, he had season highs for rush attempts (nine) and rushing yards (43) last week.
The rookie has a mouthwatering athletic profile.
Ibanikanda hasn't showcased his home-run ability in his limited chances as a pro. However, per PFF, he had 38 rushes that traveled 10-plus yards and 19 for 15-plus on 241 attempts and averaged 5.9 yards per carry in his final collegiate season in 2022.
Browns Analysis: Joe Flacco has provided a spark to Cleveland's offense, and Kevin Stefanski has called on the veteran quarterback to sling the ball all over the yard. The Browns have had a 64% situation-neutral pass rate since Flacco was inserted as the starter in Week 13.
Flacco has tossed multiple touchdowns in all four of his starts, cleared 250 passing yards in each and bested 300 in his three most recent games. The Jets have shut down superior passers this season. Still, Flacco is the quarterback on the favored team, and Cleveland's pass-heavy tendencies are ideal for his DFS outlook.
Amari Cooper went off last week, torching the Texans for 11 receptions, 265 receiving yards and two touchdowns. He had four receptions for 109 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 15 and tallied 7-77-0 in Week 14. During Cooper's three-game heater, he had a 28.5% target share and averaged 193 air yards per game. Cooper's upside is immense.
However, Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman are reasonable pivots in case Sauce Gardner gets the best of Cooper. Since Week 14, Moore was second on the team in routes (114), and Tillman was fourth (99). Moore had 13 targets, seven receptions and 78 scoreless receiving yards, and Tillman had 14, eight and 88. Neither is an exciting option, but their playing time puts them on the radar on this showdown slate.
David Njoku is arguably Cleveland's most exciting DFS selection. In his last three games, he's parlayed a 23.8% target share into 22 receptions (7.3 per game), 239 receiving yards (79.7 per game) and four receiving touchdowns. While the Jets are a brutal matchup for wide receivers, they're merely midpack against tight ends.
Final Thoughts: Flacco, Cooper, Njoku, Hall and Wilson are the MVP/Captain choices for this slate. Balanced lineups or those leaning toward the Browns are the most appealing constructions.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
