The Saints and Rams are motivated clubs fighting for a playoff berth. The favored hosts have a top-heavy offense, albeit with one intriguing ancillary piece. Thankfully, the Saints have a more vast group of viable DFS options, including some punts.
Game: New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: LAR -4.0
Over/Under: 46.0 Points
Saints Analysis: Derek Carr isn't an exciting quarterback, and he's not trusted with a massive workload. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Saints have had only a 52% situation-neutral pass rate in their previous four games. In those games, Carr completed 82 of 114 pass attempts for 867 yards (216.8 per game), six passing touchdowns and three interceptions.
However, Carr might be asked to do more this week. First, they're underdogs. Second, the Rams have faced a 64% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 12. Los Angeles has struggled against quarterbacks in that stretch. According to The 33rd Team, the Rams have allowed the third-most DraftKings (24.6) and FanDuel (23.8) points per game to quarterbacks since Week 12. Carr is a rock-solid pick despite not being a must-use player.
Alvin Kamara has a brutal matchup. The Rams have allowed the second-fewest DK (15.2) and FD (12.8) points per game since Week 12. Additionally, Kamara isn't a lock for work near the endzone, with Jamaal Williams and Taysom Hill looming as goal-line threats. Nevertheless, Kamara has had at least 20 opportunities (rush attempts plus targets) in three of his past four games, besting 100 scrimmage yards in each of those contests. In the outlier, he had 16 opportunities, 45 scrimmage yards, three receptions and a touchdown.
Chris Olave will return from a one-week absence with an ankle injury. However, there's less contrarian incentive to use him in his first game back from an injury on a showdown slate than on a full DFS slate. The second-year wideout is one of the best players in this contest. So, gamers will still roll the dice on him. Gamers entering 50-plus lineups should mix Olave into their portfolio, but those entering a smaller volume of lineups can fade him.
Juwan Johnson and A.T. Perry are intriguing selections. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Perry has run the most routes (86), and Johnson has run the second-most routes (79) for the Saints since Week 12. The former has had eight targets, five receptions and 115 receiving yards since Week 12. The latter has had 15 targets, eight receptions, 93 receiving yards and one touchdown in that four-game period.
Both have above-average matchups. According to The 33rd Team, Perry has aligned wide 59.6% of his snaps this season, and the Rams have coughed up the most DK (26.2) and FD (20.4) points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 12. Los Angeles has also allowed tight ends the ninth-most DK (14.7) and FD (12.0) points per game since Week 12.
Jimmy Graham is a touchdown-or-bust punt. The veteran tight end has had only five targets, five receptions and 31 receiving yards in his previous three games. Yet, Graham has scored a touchdown in each of those contests.
Rams Analysis: The Rams are a DFS treasure trove, and their skill-position studs are delivering because Matthew Stafford is balling. He's been dialed in, throwing multiple touchdowns in four consecutive games and going three straight without a turnover. Since Week 12, Stafford has passed for 1,060 yards (265.0 per game), 12 touchdowns and one interception.
Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have dominated the opportunities in the passing game, and that hasn't slowed lately. Since Week 12, Nacua has had a 23.5% target share, 77 air yards per game, 18 receptions (4.5 per game), 266 receiving yards (66.5 per game), one receiving touchdown, five rush attempts and 43 rushing yards (10.8 per game). Meanwhile, Kupp had a 22.8% target share, 77 air yards per game, 25 receptions (6.3 per game), 283 receiving yards (70.8 per game) and three touchdown receptions.
Tutu Atwell should return, but Demarcus Robinson has passed him in the pecking order. Robinson has parlayed a 14.7% target share and 71 air yards per game in the last four weeks into 11 receptions (2.8 per game), 158 receiving yards (39.5 per game) and three receiving touchdowns. He's the only appealing mid-salaried skill-position player from the Rams.
Kyren Williams is the most exciting selection from the Rams. He's a genuine workhorse. In four games since the second-year pro returned from the injured reserve, Williams has had 22, 26, 29, and 34 opportunities, piling up 497 rushing yards (124.3 per game), two rushing touchdowns, 17 receptions (4.3 per game), 87 receiving yards (21.8 per game) and two receiving touchdowns. Williams had over 110 rushing yards in three of those games.
He should feast against the Saints. In their past four games, they've coughed up 25.4 DK points per game (tied for the eighth-most), 21.2 FD points per game (the 13th-most), 125 rushing yards per game, 4.7 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, 4.0 receptions per game, 21 receiving yards per game and one rushing touchdown to running backs.
Final Thoughts: Williams is the top Captain/MVP pick. Stafford is in the second tier. Kupp, Nacua and Kamara are the third-tier Captain/MVP choices. The most appealing lineup constructions are balanced or lean toward the favored Rams.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
