The Thursday Night Football game won’t elicit excitement from most NFL fans. However, it’s an opportunity to win money in showdown contests. The favored hosts are the more exciting source of picks, but the visitors also have a few viable choices.
Game: New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: PIT -6.0
Over/Under: 30.0 Points
Patriots Analysis: According to RotoViz's pace app, the Patriots have rushed on 48% of their plays in neutral game scripts since returning from their Week 11 bye. Unfortunately, Rhamondre Stevenson is injured, leaving Ezekiel Elliott to handle a workhorse role. Last week, he had a whopping 22 opportunities (17 rush attempts and five targets), converting the chances into four receptions and 92 scrimmage yards.
Elliott's workload should be robust against the Steelers, especially if it's a close contest. Yet, Elliott has had multiple receptions in four consecutive games. Therefore, he can provide value to DFS gamers even if the Patriots are in a negative game script.
DeVante Parker is the top option in New England's admittedly pathetic passing attack. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Parker has led the Patriots in routes (58), targets (14), receptions (seven) and receiving yards (106) since Week 12. He also had more than double the air yards (163 versus 73) of anyone else on the team. Parker is comfortably New England's top pass-catching option.
JuJu Smith-Schuster was second on the team in routes (54) in the previous two games. The veteran wideout had only seven targets, three receptions and 21 receiving yards. However, Smith-Schuster's 73 air yards were the second-most on the team.
Additionally, he has a better matchup than Parker has on the perimeter. According to The 33rd Team, Smith-Schuster has a 62.4% slot rate versus 19.3% for Parker this season. Meanwhile, since Week 10, the Steelers have allowed 14.5 DraftKings points per game and 11.7 FanDuel points per game to slots versus 8.8 and 7.2 to perimeter wideouts.
Ty Montgomery is a speculative choice as a potential complement to Elliott in the backfield and a part-time wide receiver. According to PFF, Montgomery had a season-high three snaps in the backfield last week. He has experience at running back and wide receiver and could get some schemed touches in an offense desperate for playmakers without Stevenson and Demario Douglas. JaMycal Hasty or Kevin Harris could be active as backup running backs. Yet, if neither is active, Montgomery's showdown value would substantially climb.
Steelers Analysis: The Steelers have been a run-first team since firing Matt Canada. In games without Canada, they've had a 51% rush rate in neutral game scripts. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren have been effective runners of late. Among running backs since Week 10, Warren was second in rushing yards (338), averaging a blistering 7.3 yards per attempt, and Harris was fifth (279), tallying a stellar 4.7 yards per attempt.
Since Canada's departure, Harris has had 31 rush attempts and run 28 routes compared to 22 and 24 for Warren. The matchup is brutal for Pittsburgh's two-headed backfield. Since Week 10, the Patriots have permitted the fewest DK (10.9) points per game and the fewest FD (9.7) points per game to running backs. Regardless, the game script should be ideal for both. Still, Warren is the more attractive option after Harris missed practice on Tuesday and Wednesday and is listed as questionable for this game. If Harris is ruled out, Warren's value would skyrocket.
Mitch Trubisky is filling in for an injured Kenny Pickett. He's nothing special, putting it kindly. Regardless, he's the starting quarterback on the favored club in this game. Furthermore, New England's opponents have had a 58% pass rate in neutral game scripts in their previous three games. The Steelers might opt to throw more than usual to avoid New England's stout run defense.
Diontae Johnson is the top wideout on the Steelers. In five games when Trubisky attempted over 20 passes in 2022, Johnson had team highs in targets (50), receptions (37) and receiving yards (376), trouncing the second-highest marks of 26, 14 and 196, respectively.
George Pickens has led the club in routes (59) in their last two games. He was third in targets (20), third in receptions (10) and second in receiving yards (196) in the five-game sample from 2022 cited above. The second-year wideout is a boom-or-bust vertical weapon.
Thankfully, Pickens has an above-average matchup on the perimeter. The Patriots have coughed up the eighth-most DK (18.2) points per game and the ninth-most FD (14.6) points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 10. The matchup is also stellar for Johnson since he primarily aligns wide.
Final Thoughts: There isn't a standout Captain/MVP pick. Instead, Trubisky, Harris (is he's active), Warren, Johnson, Pickens and Elliott are worthy options.
Pittsburgh-leaning lineups are the most appealing, but construction ranging from balanced to Steelers onslaughts are rock-solid, too. Gamers can use both defenses, both kickers or all four on the same lineup in what might be an ugly, low-scoring game. Still, I prefer to use no more than two from the defense and kicker pool on most rosters.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
