The Sunday Night Football game is a battle of AFC division leaders. One stud is a cut above the rest on the showdown slate, but there’s a vast pool of viable ancillary options. It’s a fun slate with many roster construction choices.
Game: Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: BAL -3.0
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Ravens Analysis: Lamar Jackson is the focal point of Baltimore's offense, and he could have a sizable workload as a passer in this matchup. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Ravens had a 54% situation-neutral pass rate in their previous four games, but that ticked up to 58% in their first game after their bye in Week 13. Jacksonville's defense is also a pass funnel, facing a 60% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 11.
Jackson has played well as a passer and rusher lately. In his past four games, he's passed for 980 yards (245.0 per game), seven touchdowns and three interceptions. He's also rushed for 204 yards (51.0 per game).
The dual-threat quarterback has a tasty matchup this week. According to The 33rd Team, the Jaguars have allowed 25.7 DraftKings points per game (tied for the second most), 18.7 FanDuel points per game (the third most), 281.8 passing yards per game, eight passing touchdowns, 18.8 rushing yards per game and two rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks since Week 11. Jackson is far and away the top selection on this showdown slate.
Zay Flowers is Baltimore's top wideout, narrowly followed by Odell Beckham. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Flowers has run the most routes (121), was tied for the most targets (21), had the most receptions (14), the second-most receiving yards (128) and led the Ravens in touchdown receptions (two) since Week 11. The rookie also had two rush attempts for 44 yards and a touchdown in those games.
In those four games, Beckham was fifth on the Ravens in routes (59). However, he made the most of them, tying for the team lead in targets (21), ranking second in receptions (11), pacing the team in receiving yards (247) and securing a touchdown reception. OBJ was also one of four players to run at least 30 routes for Baltimore in Week 14.
Isaiah Likely (48 routes) and Nelson Agholor (35) were the two other players to hit that threshold last week. Likely had seven targets, five receptions, 83 receiving yards and a touchdown out of the team's bye. Agholor had five receptions on five targets for 32 scoreless yards.
Flowers and Agholor have better matchups than OBJ this week. According to The 33rd Team, the Jaguars have allowed 16.1 DK and 11.6 FD points per game to perimeter wideouts versus 27.0 DK and 21.9 FD points per game to slots since Week 11. Meanwhile, according to The 33rd Team, Flowers and Agholor have had 52.5% and 68.1% slot rates compared to 20.7% for OBJ this season.
The matchup is also decent for Likely. Since Week 11, the Jags have permitted tight ends 11.7 DK points per game, 9.5 FD points per game, 4.3 receptions per game, 44 receiving yards per game and two touchdowns.
Keaton Mitchell is the most attractive running back on the Ravens. They have a three-player running-back-by-committee (RBBC) situation. Since Week 10, Gus Edwards has had the most rush attempts (37) in the RBBC, followed by Mitchell (29) and Justice Hill (eight). However, Mitchell averaged 6.4 yards per carry compared to only 3.4 for the Gus Bus, leading to 185 rushing yards for the former and 127 for the latter. Edwards was able to mask his inefficiency by scoring three rushing touchdowns.
Yet, Mitchell had nine rushes for 54 yards in Week 14, and Edwards had six for 15. So, there might be a change of guard at the top of the pecking order. Furthermore, Mitchell has added more to the passing game, running 29 routes and hauling in his four targets for 41 yards since Week 11. In those games, Edwards has run 27 routes and had just three receptions for 19 yards.
Since Week 11, Jacksonville has allowed 22.3 DK points per game, 18.7 FD points per game, 72 rushing yards per game, 3.8 yards per carry, three rushing touchdowns, 5.8 receptions per game and 40.0 receiving yards per game to running backs. Thus, Mitchell could succeed as a pass-catcher in this matchup, albeit with the risk of Hill soaking up most of the backfield's receiving work.
Jaguars Analysis: Trevor Lawrence gutted out his high-ankle sprain last week and had an up-and-down performance. Jacksonville has had a 61% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 11, and Lawrence should continue slinging it against a defense that's faced a 61% situation-neutral pass rate in its past four games.
Since Week 11, Lawrence has passed for 1,141 yards (285.3 per game), eight touchdowns and four interceptions. He's also rushed for 36 yards and four touchdowns. The matchup is slightly above average for Lawrence this week. Since Week 10, the Ravens have allowed the 12th-most DK (18.7) and the 11th-most FD (18.7) points per game to quarterbacks. Lawrence is an excellent pick on this slate.
Evan Engram is the most attractive pass-catching choice. Christian Kirk was injured on the first offensive play for the Jaguars in Week 13, and Engram has stepped up. In Jacksonville's past two games, the speedy tight end has had 21 targets, 20 receptions, 177 receiving yards and three touchdowns. He was tied for the team lead in targets and led the way in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown receptions.
The matchup is nice, too. Baltimore has coughed up 14.3 DK points per game, 11.6 FD points per game, 5.5 receptions per game, 57.0 receiving yards per game and two touchdowns to tight ends since Week 10.
Calvin Ridley was first on the club in routes (99) and had a DFS-friendly 19 targets in the last two games. Unfortunately, he had just eight receptions for 79 scoreless yards. Ridley has been volatile this year, posting some blow-up games, some duds and almost nothing in between.
In the same two-game stretch, Zay Jones was tied for the team lead in targets (21) and had 10 receptions for 107 scoreless yards, leaving something to be desired. Additionally, per PFF, the Ravens have played man coverage at the 11th-highest rate, and Jones's 25.0% target rate against man coverage was the highest among Jacksonville's healthy wide receivers. He had a pitiful 0.75 Y/RR against man coverage. Still, Jones's target volume was outstanding.
Parker Washington is an intriguing value option. He's stepped into the slot since Kirk was hurt, running the fourth-most routes (69) on the team and corralling all eight of his targets for 88 yards and two touchdowns. Baltimore has allowed 16.9 DK and 12.7 FD points per game to slots since Week 11 compared to 14.5 and 11.6 to perimeter wideouts. This season, Washington's 78.6% slot rate is the highest among Jacksonville's healthy wide receivers.
Travis Etienne has a DFS-friendly role, even if he hasn't made the most of it. He's had a 75% snap share this season, reached at least a 61% snap share in five games since Jacksonville's bye and spiked to 78% in Week 14. Since Week 11, Etienne has handled 64.8% of the backfield's rush share and run 95 routes versus 48 for D'Ernest Johnson.
In that timeframe, Etienne has had 188 rushing yards (47.0 per game), 3.2 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, 16 targets, 15 receptions (3.8 per game) and 108 receiving yards (27.0 per game). Etienne's yards per carry have been uninspiring, but 74.0 scrimmage yards per game, 3.8 receptions per game and three touchdowns were nothing to sneeze at.
Etienne is a volume-driven suggestion with a stellar matchup. Since Week 10, the Ravens have allowed 19.5 DK points per game, 16.0 FD points per game, 97.0 rushing yards per game, 4.5 yards per carry, one rushing touchdown, 4.0 receptions per game, 17.0 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown to running backs.
Final Thoughts: Jackson is alone as a tier-one Captain/MVP pick. Lawrence and Etienne are the other choices for Captain/MVP.
Balanced lineups to those leaning toward the Ravens are my favorite construction for this slate. However, mixing some Ravens onslaught or Jaguars-leaning lineups into multi-entry GPP portfolios is also appealing.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
