The Eagles and Cowboys are closing Sunday’s action with a critical NFC East clash. The offenses should rule the roost, headlined by two MVP-candidate quarterbacks and a pair of alpha wideouts. Fortunately, there are a few intriguing punts to open up the requisite salary for the elite quarterbacks and wide receivers.
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: DAL -3.5
Over/Under: 51.5 Points
Eagles Analysis: Philadelphia's offensive game plan is challenging to pin down for this matchup. According to RotoViz's pace app, they've had a 58% situation-neutral pass rate in three games since their bye. However, they had a 56% situation-neutral rush rate against the Cowboys in Week 9.
The one-game sample is obviously small but a notable consideration. However, Dallas's opponents have had a 62% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 10. D'Andre Swift was woefully inefficient as Philadelphia's leading rusher against the Cowboys in the first matchup, amassing 43 scoreless yards and a long of eight yards on 18 attempts.
Thus, there's a compelling case for the Eagles to lean on Jalen Hurts as a passer. The dual-threat quarterback efficiently completed 17 of 23 pass attempts for 207 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions against Dallas a little over a month ago. The Cowboys were also just carved up by Geno Smith last week.
And, of course, Hurts is a DFS asset as a runner. In three games since Philadelphia's bye, he's rumbled for 169 yards, 5.3 yards per carry and a touchdown. Hurts is one of four elite picks on this slate.
His No. 1 weapon, A.J. Brown, is another elite choice. He had seven receptions for 66 yards and a touchdown the last time these teams played. The line was underwhelming by Brown's lofty standards. His ceiling is markedly higher.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Cowboys have played man coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL this season. Brown has earned PFF's highest receiving grade, the eighth-best yards per route run (3.69 Y/RR) and an eye-popping 37.4% target rate against man coverage this season.
The matchup is also mouthwatering for Brown when viewed through a different lens. According to The 33rd Team, Brown has aligned wide at a 62.6% clip this season. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed 19.4 DraftKings points per game and 16.0 FanDuel points per game to perimeter wide receivers versus 15.2 and 11.7 to slots.
Philadelphia's most physically imposing wide receiver can also benefit from the return of Dallas Goedert. Brown's performance had slipped significantly in the three contests the club's starting tight end was out. Unfortunately for DeVonta Smith, his numbers have suffered with Goedert in the lineup, making Philadelphia's No. 2 wideout someone to avoid for gamers entering 20 lineups or fewer into contests.
In Goedert's last four healthy contests (Week 6 through Week 9), he was third on the Eagles in routes (128), targets (24), receptions (17), receiving yards (205) and had a touchdown reception. Comparatively, Smith had 26 targets, 19 receptions, 243 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 159 routes. When considering the sizable salary discrepancy, Goedert is a much more appealing pick than Smith.
Quez Watkins is a defensible punt. In his second game back from injured reserve (IR) in Week 13, he was third on the team in routes (39) and had four targets, three receptions and 28 yards. Olamide Zaccheaus and Julio Jones ran 18 and nine routes, combining for zero targets.
A negative game script is Kenneth Gainwell's best path to helping DFS rosters. When the Eagles were smashed by the 49ers last week, he ran 31 routes versus only 17 for Swift. Gainwell had five targets, five receptions and 42 receiving yards.
He could also spell Swift as a runner. Furthermore, if Swift were injured, Gainwell could soak up vacated carries. He's a moderately attractive value choice.
Cowboys Analysis: Dak Prescott is cooking, and Mike McCarthy is letting him air it out. The Cowboys have had a 59% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 10, and that rate was a monstrous 73% against the Eagles in Week 9. Teams have also opted for a 59% situation-neutral pass rate against the Eagles since Week 11.
Therefore, Prescott should stay busy chucking the pigskin this week. Circling back to his recent excellence, Prescott is first in PFF's pass ranking, first in big-time-throw rate (8.8 BTT%), second in passing yards (1,223), tied for fourth in yards per pass attempt (8.4) and first in touchdown passes (13) since Week 10. He also carved up the Eagles for 374 passing yards and three touchdowns in November.
The Eagles haven't fixed their pass defense since Prescott shredded them. Instead, they've allowed 276.7 passing yards per game, eight passing touchdowns, 42.3 rushing yards per game, two rushing touchdowns and the most DK and FD points per game (29.3) to quarterbacks since Week 10, allowing nearly five more DK and FD points per game than the second-most giving defense. Prescott is the third of the quartet of elite options on this showdown slate.
CeeDee Lamb is the fourth member of the foursome. In his last four games, Lamb has had a 31.4% target share and averaged 131 air yards per game. He converted his elite underlying data into 33 receptions (8.3 per game), 358 receiving yards (89.5 per game) and four receiving touchdowns. He also memorably tortured the Eagles the first go around, securing 11 receptions for 191 yards on 16 targets.
Lamb's matchup is drool-inducing this week. He's had a 62.4% slot rate this season. Meanwhile, the Eagles have allowed the most DK (30.7) and FD (26.2) points per game to slots since Week 10. Lamb should run circles around the Eagles in the rematch.
Jake Ferguson is the second-most appealing pick in Dallas's passing attack. He had season-highs for targets (10) and receiving yards (91) and tied his season-highs for receptions (seven) and receiving touchdowns (one) against the Eagles. The second-year tight end is also coming off of a productive outing, flaming the Seahawks for six receptions, 77 receiving yards and one touchdown on eight targets.
Moreover, Prescott loves his trusty tight end in the red zone. Ferguson has had 11 targets inside the 10-yard line on Prescott's 38 pass attempts in that area of the field. The matchup isn't too shabby, either. Tight ends have had 5.3 receptions per game, 50.0 receiving yards per game and one touchdown against the Eagles since Week 11.
Jalen Tolbert is the next most appealing passing-game weapon, salary considered. The second-year wideout has drawn even with Michael Gallup in the passing-game hierarchy. Since Week 10, Tolbert has run 79 routes versus the same number for Gallup. The former also had a useful 14 targets for seven receptions and 80 receiving yards in those games. In addition, Tolbert had five targets, three receptions, 49 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Eagles in the last game.
KaVontae Turpin is a sweet punt, attached to Prescott as a stacking complement or without his quarterback. He has a 60.7% slot rate and is fed the ball when he's on the field, netting a target on 33.3% of his 21 routes since Week 10. Turpin parlayed his seven targets in those games into four receptions, 54 receiving yards and one touchdown.
The 2022 USFL MVP has also rushed eight times for 79 yards and a touchdown this season. And while he hasn't returned a kickoff or a punt for a touchdown in the regular season, he had one of each in the preseason in 2022.
Peyton Hendershot was included on the table for one specific DK lineup construction. Hendershot in one of the flexes will free up enough salary to use Brown as the Captain and jam Hurts, Prescott and Lamb into the lineup with one of the other suggested punts in this piece. Hendershot ran double-digit routes in the first three weeks before he was placed on IR, and he had two games with a touchdown and one exceeding 40 yards in 2022. Gamers must make sure Hendershot is active. Luke Schoonmaker, the team's second-round pick in this year's NFL Draft, might remain ahead of Hendershot.
Gamers shouldn't dismiss Tony Pollard from their usable player pool. The Eagles have coughed up 108.0 rushing yards per game, 4.3 yards per carry, one rushing touchdown, 5.0 receptions per game, 41.7 receiving yards per game, 22.0 DK points per game and 19.5 FD points per game to running backs since Week 11.
It's also notable that Pollard is rounding into form after a slow start to the season. In his last four games, he's had 60 rush attempts for 263 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, eight rushes of 10-plus yards and three touchdowns. Pollard wasn't silent in the receiving game, either. Instead, he had 15 targets, 13 receptions and 58 receiving yards in the past four weeks.
Final Thoughts: Hurts, Prescott, Brown and Lamb are the Captain/MVP options. Balanced lineups or unbalanced ones leaning toward the Cowboys are the most appealing. However, a Cowboys onslaught with only Hurts from the Eagles is also inviting since Hurts is a one-person-scoring machine, thanks to his passing prowess and the "Brotherly Shove."
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
