The Chiefs and Packers have intriguing offensive weapons. Kansas City is top-heavy with a few intriguing non-superstars. Conversely, Green Bay doesn’t have established superstars. Instead, they have a vast spread of young skill-position players jostling for the weekly top-dog honor. It’s an intriguing showdown slate, with enough skill-position talent to bypass using the kickers and defenses.
Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers
Spread: KC -6.0
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Chiefs Analysis: Patrick Mahomes isn't having a campaign up to his normal elite standard. Nevertheless, he's eighth in passing yards per game (265.2) and fourth in passing touchdowns (21). Mahomes is also Pro Football Focus's (PFF's) fifth-ranked passer among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this season.
The two-time NFL MVP was lights out last week, passing for 298 yards and two touchdowns. Kansas City might have turned a corner last week by leaning heavily on their two best pass-catching weapons, feeding them a 50% target share. Mahomes can also add value with his legs, averaging 27.7 rushing yards per game this season. He's an elite selection in all game types and a must-use option in cash games.
Travis Kelce is the No. 1 option in Kansas City's passing attack and the NFL's best tight end. He's averaging 7.0 receptions per game and 73.2 receiving yards per game with five touchdowns in 10 games in 2023. Kansas City has shuffled wide receivers in a deep rotation, but Kelce is a mainstay on the field.
The matchup isn't too shabby for him this week. According to The 33rd Team, Green Bay has allowed 3.8 receptions per game, 50.5 receiving yards per game and two receiving touchdowns to tight ends since Week 9. Kelce is among the best picks on this showdown slate.
Rashee Rice has flashed his potential this year. Yet, he had a breakout performance in Week 12, commanding a 29.4% target share and trouncing the Raiders for eight receptions, 107 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. In two games since Kansas City's bye in Week 10, Rice has been third on the Chiefs in routes (52), second in targets (15), second in receptions (12), first in receiving yards (149) and tied for second in receiving touchdowns (one). He's an ascending talent.
His usage is ideal for this matchup. Per The 33rd Team, Rice has had a 68.2% slot rate this year, albeit with a 41.0% slot rate in Week 12. Green Bay's held perimeter wideouts to only 10.1 DraftKings points per game and 8.3 FanDuel points per game since Week 9. Yet, they've coughed up 18.9 DK points per game and 14.9 FD points per game in those games.
Justin Watson is the third-most appealing pass-catching option from the Chiefs, even if he's a distant third. In the last two weeks, the field-stretching wideout was second on the Chiefs in routes (57), third in targets (13), tied for third in receptions (six), third in receiving yards (56) and first in touchdown receptions (two). Furthermore, Watson has had a 51.8% slot rate this season.
Skyy Moore hasn't stepped up in his sophomore campaign. Still, he's run the fourth-most routes (39) among Kansas City's wideouts since their bye. Moore parlayed the route participation into an underwhelming four targets, four receptions and 38 receiving yards. The second-year pro also has had a 50.3% slot rate this year, adding to the appeal of using him as a punt.
Isiah Pacheco is arguably the second-best selection from the Chiefs, behind only Mahomes. He has a cupcake matchup against Green Bay's lousy run defense. Since Week 9, the Packers have allowed running backs 109.0 rushing yards per game, 4.6 yards per carry, three rushing touchdowns, 3.3 receptions per game and 16.0 receiving yards per game. Teams have chosen to run at a high rate against the Packers. According to RotoViz's pace app, Green Bay's opponents have run on 49% of their plays in neutral game scripts.
The second-year pro doesn't have meaningful backfield competition for carries. Pacheco has handled 75.2% of Kansas City's backfield's rush share this season. The hard-charging running back had at least 13 rush attempts in eight of his previous nine games, carrying the ball at least 15 times in seven of those contests. Finally, he should be busy salting the game away if the betting line comes to fruition and the Chiefs lead late in the game.
Packers Analysis: Jordan Love is settling into a groove, and Matt LaFleur trusts his young quarterback. Love is PFF's fifth-ranked passer among quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks since Week 9. During those four games, he passed for 1,106 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions. Green Bay has passed on 57% of their plays in neutral game scripts since Week 9. Love is also a capable runner, averaging 20.1 rushing yards per game with two rushing touchdowns this season.
Jayden Reed, health permitting, Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks, also health permitting, are the best passing-game options for this matchup. Reed, Watson and Wicks have had slot rates this year of 76.1%, 63.9% and 59.2%, respectively. Kansas City has bottled up perimeter wideouts but struggled against slot. The Chiefs have allowed 22.7 DK points per game and 18.7 FD points per game to slots since Week 9.
Since Week 9, Watson has run a team-high 124 routes, tied for the most targets (20) on the Packers, and he tallied 10 receptions, 175 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Reed ran 97 routes and had 20 targets, 16 receptions, 183 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. The rookie slot wide receiver also had six rushes for 83 yards and a touchdown in those games.
Wicks was out last week. When he was healthy from Week 9 through Week 11, he was sixth on the Packers in routes (50). However, Wicks had 13 targets, 10 receptions and a team-high 190 receiving yards. The rookie wide receiver is a screaming value and lynchpin piece at DK if he can suit up. However, if Wicks's knee injury keeps him out, Malik Heath, Noah Gray and Kadarius Toney are viable but less appealing sub-$2,000 pivots.
AJ Dillon has inefficiently averaged a career-low 3.4 yards per carry this season. However, his volume is DFS-friendly. Aaron Jones is out this week, and Dillon had a commanding 82.4% backfield rush share last week. The bruising back has handled 81.1% of Green Bay's backfield rushes in four games without Jones this season, averaging 15.0 rush attempts per game, 51.8 rushing yards per game, 1.0 receptions per game and 11.5 receiving yards per game, scoring once on the ground.
Dillon has a tasty matchup this week if the Packers can keep it close enough to feed him. Since Week 9, the Chiefs have coughed up 100.3 rushing yards per game, 5.6 yards per carry, three rushing touchdowns, 5.0 receptions per game and 31.0 receiving yards per game to running backs. Finally, since the Packers are underdogs and Dillon is game-script dependent, he probably won't be highly rostered, adding to the appeal of using him in GPPs and hoping Green Bay exceeds expectations.
Final Thoughts: Mahomes, Kelce, Pacheco and Love are the first-tier Captain/MVP picks. However, Rice, Reed and Christian Watson are also viable choices. Finally, balanced lineups or ones tilting slightly toward either club are the most appealing constructions.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
