Jamie Calandro | Tue, Dec 5th 2023, 10:32am EST

NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 14 (2023 Fantasy Football)

The injury bug hit hard in Week 13, as we saw some significant players go down. Rookie sensation Tank Dell was lost for the season. Rhamondre Stevenson has a high ankle sprain. Plus, we saw both Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk fall in the Monday night game.

While this will have a huge effect on season-long players, we DFSers can use this to our advantage, particularly with the players who aren’t priced accordingly with the situation. Let’s see what we can come up with for the last regular-season week with teams on bye!

NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 13

QUARTERBACK

Gardner Minshew (QB – IND) | $5,400 @ CIN

Gardner Minshew’s unstable floor (6.66 DK points in Week 10) is what’s causing him to remain static in the low-$5k range of pricing. Honestly, though, it’s a bit overreactive. Minshew has thrown the ball 83 times over the last two games, and this week’s matchup with Cincinnati is a big one. The O/U of 40.5 strikes me as far too low, as this game profiles to shoot out very similarly to the Jaguars-Bengals Monday night tilt. Cincinnati has allowed the seventh-most FPPG to opposing QBs, and Minshew has rushing-TD upside in this Shane Steichen offense.

RUNNING BACK

Joe Mixon (RB – CIN) | $6,100 vs. IND

Joe Mixon is a classic case of “I played after the slate was released, so my price wasn’t properly updated.” Mixon was a critical part of the Bengals’ win last night, logging 25 touches and scoring two TDs. He also logged a 19% target share in the game, something that figures to continue with Jake Browning under center. This is one of the best matchups Mixon could ask for, as the Colts have allowed the fourth-most FPPG to RBs and just gave up two more rushing TDs to Derrick Henry. They’ll be getting NT Grover Stewart back, which helps, but Indianapolis was in the bottom 10 for rush defense prior to the injury.

Zack Moss (RB – IND) | $5,900 @ CIN

Apparently, I’m only interested in this game. Zack Moss was a chalk bust in Week 13, but hardly hurt anyone, as he was rostered in upwards of 95-97% of most cash contests. If you faded in GPP for the passing game, congrats. Moss’ price tag has now risen $1,300, but he’s still far too cheap and will be immensely popular. Despite an inefficient 2.7 YPC, Moss still logged a 100% carry share in this game. And don’t forget that he was the RB6 through the first five weeks of the season (one of which included Jonathan Taylor in the lineup). This matchup is also far friendlier than the one against Tennessee.

WIDE RECEIVER

Drake London (WR – ATL) | $4,600 vs. TB

It’s hard to trust any Falcons pass-catcher as long as Desmond Ridder is under center and they continue their run-heavy ways. London flashed his ultimate floor this past weekend, logging only one catch for eight yards. That said, we can throw this game out, as the Jets’ secondary is as stout as any in the league. This week, he gets the Buccaneers, who are the polar opposite and have allowed the second-highest YPC and the third-most FPPG to opposing WRs. London is still maintaining a respectable 23.1% target share and has run a route on over 97% of snaps.

Elijah Moore (WR – CLE) | $4,500 vs. JAX

Elijah Moore’s price tag rose $1,000, but he’s still likely to be a very popular play this week, particularly if Amari Cooper (concussion) misses the game. Moore was Joe Flacco‘s favorite target on Sunday, logging 12 targets and flashing the chemistry the two showed from their New York Jets days. Flacco figures to start again, but even if he doesn’t, Moore was being heavily featured in the offense anyway. He has 35 targets over the last four weeks and faces a Jacksonville defense that got carved up last night by Browning and company. In total, Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-most FPPG to opposing WRs this season.

TIGHT END

Tanner Hudson (TE – CIN) | $2,800 vs. IND

Who’s this week’s Brevin Jordan? It’s Tanner “I’m better than Irv Smith” Hudson! The Bengals’ TE does not have a TD yet this year but is slowly starting to outpace his fellow TEs in both snap share and route participation. Hudson has a respectable 25 targets over the past five weeks, including an elite 88% catch rate in that span. At $2,800, a 4-40-0 line will suit just fine, and there’s also a ceiling to be unlocked if positive TD regression comes his way. The Colts have allowed the 12th-most FPPG to opposing TEs this season.

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