The penultimate week of the NFL regular season has a 13-game DFS main slate. There are many exciting selections and a variety of quality stacking choices on this massive slate. However, the most highly anticipated game of the week isn’t necessarily the best to stack.
Week 17 Matchups
Game: Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: BAL -3.5
Over/Under: 47.0 Points
Dolphins Analysis: The Dolphins are banged up, including Raheem Mostert. However, Mostert's practice reps have been capped in recent weeks before he ultimately suited up. The veteran speedster with a nose for the end zone is an enticing selection if he's active this week.
Mostert has had at least a dozen opportunities (rush attempts plus targets) in every game this season. Furthermore, the 31-year-old running back is tied among running backs for the most rush attempts inside the five-yard line (20), converting 12 into touchdowns and adding two more touchdown receptions inside the five-yard line.
The matchup isn't too imposing, either. According to The 33rd Team, running backs have gashed the Ravens for 4.7 yards per carry since their bye in Week 13. Mostert is best reserved for GPP usage in a game stack.
Ravens Analysis: The Ravens have leaned into the pass since their bye in Week 13. Per RotoViz's pace app, the Ravens have had a 60% situation-neutral pass rate in three subsequent contests. Conversely, Miami's opponents have had a 61% situation-neutral pass rate in their past four games.
Lamar Jackson sandwiched stellar passing efforts around a dud in the previous three weeks. However, he made up for his lackluster passing in the lousy showing by rushing for 97 yards. Jackson has a massive ceiling. The optimizer projects that he'll be the QB3 in DFS this week, with the QB1 value score (QB1V) at FanDuel.
Isaiah Likely has stepped up in the absence of Mark Andrews. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the second-year tight end has run the second-most routes (110) for the Ravens since Week 14, parlaying them into the second-most targets (17), the second-most receptions (13) and the most receiving yards (209) for the club. He also had two touchdown receptions. Likely is projected as the TE5 in DFS, with the TE4V at FD and the TE6V at DK.
Baltimore's defense had an impressive showing in San Francisco against the 49ers in Week 16. The 49ers looked like an unstoppable force entering that game. The Dolphins have a potent offense, but Baltimore's defense has demonstrated they can have a DFS-friendly showing in a challenging matchup. Furthermore, they're favored at home, making them a nifty contrarian pick in GPPs.
Game: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -13.0
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
Patriots Analysis: Demario Douglas has had at least seven targets and five receptions in five of his previous six games. Additionally, he had four receptions, 54 receiving yards and a 20-yard rush against the Bills earlier this season. The rookie wideout has the WR5V at DK in Week 17.
Bills Analysis: Buffalo's new offensive coordinator, Joe Brady, has dialed up the rushing attack since taking the reigns in Week 11. However, Brady might lean more heavily on the pass this week against New England's pass-funnel defense. Since Week 13, the Patriots have tied for the seventh-highest situation-neutral pass rate (64%) against them.
Josh Allen has been responsible for multiple touchdowns in all five games, with Brady as the team's play-caller, passing for eight and rushing for six. Brady has also cranked up Allen's rushing contributions, calling more designed runs than Ken Dorsey. The dual-threat quarterback is projected to be the QB2 in DFS in Week 17, with the QB4V at FD.
Stefon Diggs is in a funk. He's cleared 50 receiving yards just once in his past six games. Nevertheless, his target share was rock-solid. In Brady's five games as Buffalo's play-caller, Diggs has had a 29.1% target share.
Gamers who keep their faith in Diggs can be rewarded this week. It's a plus matchup for Buffalo's No. 1 wideout. According to The 33rd Team, Diggs has aligned wide 59.1% of the time this season. Since Week 13, the Patriots have allowed the ninth-most DK (19.8) and the eighth-most FD (15.8) points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Gabe Davis is a boom-or-bust player. In his past five games, Davis had three games without a reception and two with over 100 receiving yards, including a 4-130-1 effort in Week 16. Since he's aligned wide 55.7% of the time this season, he also has a sweet matchup.
Khalil Shakir mostly plays in the slot. However, he's aligned wide 28.5% of the time. The second-year wideout has run the fourth-most routes (60) for the Bills since their bye in Week 14 and is salary-friendly exposure to Buffalo's juicy implied total.
James Cook has excelled in Brady's offense, averaging 17.6 rush attempts per game, 84.6 rushing yards per game, 3.8 targets per game, 3.2 receptions per game, 42.2 receiving yards per game and scoring four touchdowns. The matchup is tricky for him on the ground, but the Patriots have allowed 7.5 receptions per game, 51 receiving yards per game and two touchdown receptions in their last four games. Cook is projected as the RB5 in DFS this week, with the RB6V at DK and tying for the RB4V at FD.
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears
Spread: CHI -3.0
Over/Under: 38.0 Points
Falcons Analysis: Arthur Smith is a dunce, and Atlanta's implied total of 17.5 points is gross. The Falcons can be faded in DFS this week.
Bears Analysis: Justin Fields is always a threat for a blow-up game, but Chicago's implied total isn't inviting, and spending more salary for one of the studs or saving money to use the cheaper featured signal-caller in this piece are better options.
Game: Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Spread: HOU -4.5
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Titans Analysis: Will Levis has fully practiced this week and flashed his potential in eight starts. Nevertheless, he led the Titans to only 16 points against the Texans in Week 15, and Tennessee has scored fewer than 20 points five times in the rookie's starts.
Texans Analysis: C.J. Stroud is trending toward clearing the NFL's concussion protocol, so he is set to start this week. After a two-week absence, he might have some rust to shake off. The offense hasn't clicked on all cylinders without Tank Dell, either. As a result, fading them is acceptable.
Game: Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: IND -3.5
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Raiders Analysis: Las Vegas's defense has allowed only 38 points and tallied 12 sacks with seven turnovers forced in three games since their bye. Their fierce pass rush should get after Gardner Minshew. Indy's starting quarterback has taken at least three sacks in four straight games, including taking six last week.
Colts Analysis: The Colts have an inconsistent offense, and the Raiders' defense is rolling. It's not an ideal spot to use Indy's players in DFS.
Game: Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: JAC -6.5
Over/Under: 38.0 Points
Panthers Analysis: The Panthers are having a forgettable season. Still, their defense is the cheapest useful DFS choice this week against an injured Trevor Lawrence or C.J. Beathard. Lawrence is dealing with a shoulder injury, and Beathard is a bum. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Beathard's 8.5% sack rate and 2.6% interception rate in his career would be eighth-highest and tied for the sixth-highest marks, respectively, among qualified quarterbacks this season.
Jaguars Analysis: Jacksonville's offense is broken. An injured Lawrence or Beathard isn't the answer for turning it around this week.
Game: Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants
Spread: LAR -5.5
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Rams Analysis: Matthew Stafford is white-hot. He's PFF's highest-graded passer since Week 13. In those four games, he averaged 289.8 passing yards per game and threw 10 touchdowns versus zero interceptions. He's clicking on all cylinders and has a studly collection of pass-catching weapons.
Stafford can stay hot against the G-Men's unimposing defense. They've allowed the 10th-most DK (19.2) and the 11th-most FD (18.2) points per game to quarterbacks since Week 13.
Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua should torch Big Blue's secondary. In LA's last four games, Kupp has led the team in target share (27.7%), but Nacua's 25.5% target share wasn't far behind. The rookie wideout also had the most air yards per game (96) on the team in those games. Both wideouts parlayed their excellent underlying stats into superb results. Kupp had 28 receptions (7.0 per game), 317 receiving yards (79.3 per game) and three touchdowns, and Nacua had 23 (5.8 per game), 403 (100.8 per game) and two receiving touchdowns.
Demarcus Robinson has emerged as a highly productive No. 3 wide receiver. In his last four games, he's had 15 receptions (3.8 per game), 227 receiving yards (56.8 per game) and a team-high four touchdown receptions. Kupp, Nacua and Robinson have had slot rates this year of 73.6%, 60.2% and 56.0%. Since Week 13, the G-Men have allowed the fifth-most DK (24.7) and the fourth-most FD (21.0) points per game to slots.
Kyren Williams is a bell-cow running back. The second-year pro has had at least 22 opportunities in all five games since he returned from injured reserve (IR). In those games, Williams had 111 rush attempts (22.2 per game), 601 rushing yards (120.2 per game), three rushing touchdowns, 22 targets (4.4 per game), 17 receptions (3.4 per game), 87 receiving yards (17.4 per game) and two receiving touchdowns. He's projected to be the RB2 in DFS this week.
Giants Analysis: Darius Slayton has run the most routes (103) for the Giants since their bye in Week 13, converting his route participation into nine receptions (3.0 per game), 167 receiving yards (55.7 per game) and one touchdown reception. Slayton should remain integral to New York's passing attack, even with Tyrod Taylor reprising the starting quarterback spot. In the only two games Taylor had over 20 pass attempts this season, Slayton had five receptions and 91 receiving yards.
Jalin Hyatt can benefit from the change at quarterback. He had nine targets, five receptions and 96 receiving yards in the two contests Taylor attempted at least 20 passes. The rookie speed merchant has run the third-most routes (83) for the Giants since Week 14. Hyatt is a big-play threat.
Slayton and Hyatt have a drool-inducing matchup when they align wide. Slayton and Hyatt have aligned wide 43.6% and 72.5% of the time this season. Since Week 13, the Rams have allowed the most DK (28.8) and FD (22.1) points per game to perimeter wide receivers. It's a middle-of-the-pack matchup when Slayton and Hyatt move into the slot. Slayton is a value at both DFS outlets and has the WR2V at DK.
Game: Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: PHI-10.5
Over/Under: 48.0 Points
Cardinals Analysis: Trey McBride had a dud last week, catching six passes for 31 scoreless yards. Thankfully, the lackluster showing was a rare occurrence for the blossoming tight end. The second-year pro has had at least five receptions in Kyler Murray's six starts, reaching at least 60 receiving yards five times. McBride is a volume hog and projects as the TE2 with the TE5V at DK and the TE3 with the TE2V at FD in Week 17.
Greg Dortch is an intriguing matchup-driven value option if Marquise Brown is out again. Despite Dortch's small stature, he's aligned wide 45.7% of the time this season. Perimeter wide receivers have scored the eighth-most DK (20.6) and the second-most FD (18.5) points per game against the Eagles since Week 13.
Eagles Analysis: Jalen Hurts is a dual-threat headache for opposing defenses. He's passed for 20 touchdowns and rushed for 15. Philadelphia's do-it-all quarterback has produced multiple touchdowns in 13 of his previous 14 games. Hurts's passing has been up and down this season. He's passed for fewer than 200 yards five times but exceeded 300 four times.
Hurts has a cathedral-high ceiling, but his rushing prowess also gives him a high floor. Hurts is projected as the QB1 this week, with the QB3V at FD. The Cardinals can coax a ceiling game out of Hurts. Arizona has allowed the eighth-most DK (20.7) and the fourth-most FD (20.7) points per game to quarterbacks since Week 13.
A.J. Brown has had double-digit targets in four straight contests. He's had at least five receptions in five straight games and reached at least 80 receiving yards or scored a touchdown in four of his past five games. Brown also demonstrated his massive ceiling early this season when he strung together six consecutive games north of 125 receiving yards from Week 3 through Week 8. He's projected to be the WR2 in DFS this week.
Dallas Goedert is the cheapest piece of useful exposure to Philadephia's sizable implied total. The pass-catching tight end has had precisely nine targets in back-to-back games and had seven receptions for 71 receiving yards in Week 16.
The Eagles fed D'Andre Swift 18 and 20 rush attempts in the previous two weeks, and he rewarded them with 74 and 92 rushing yards and a touchdown. The Eagles are double-digit favorites, and the Cardinals can't stop running backs. So, it behooves the Eagles to keep feeding Swift this week.
Arizona has coughed up the third-most DK (33.6) and FD (28.3) points per game to running backs since Week 13. As a result, Swift is the RB7 in DFS this week, with the RB3V at DK and the RB8V at FD.
Game: New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: TB -2.5
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Saints Analysis: According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Buccaneers have the third-highest blitz rate (39.3%) this season. Tampa Bay's aggressive, blitzing nature isn't ideal for Derek Carr's outlook. He's PFF's 17th-ranked passer out of 31 blitzed on at least 75 dropbacks this season. The Saints should be faded on this week's NFL DFS main slate.
Buccaneers Analysis: The Buccaneers are tied for the sixth-most turnovers forced (24) and tied for the ninth-most sacks (44) this season. They held the Saints to nine points in New Orleans in Week 4. The Bucs had three sacks and forced three turnovers in that contest.
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders
Spread: SF -13.0
Over/Under: 49.5 Points
49ers Analysis: Christian McCaffrey can turn the slate on its head this week. In San Francisco's 11 victories this season, CMC had 206 rush attempts (18.7 per game), 1,150 rushing yards (104.5 per game), 11 rushing touchdowns, 55 targets (5.0 per game), 45 receptions (4.5 per game), 385 receiving yards (35.0 per game) and four receiving touchdowns.
The 49ers are massive favorites, and the Commanders are literally the best matchup for running backs. The Commanders have allowed the most DK (40.6) and FD (33.9) points per game to running backs since Week 13. Thus, CMC is projected as the RB1 this week. He's also tied for the RB1V at DK and has the RB2V at FD.
McCaffrey isn't San Francisco's only stud with a cushy matchup. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk shouldn't face much resistance this week. Since Week 13, the Commanders have allowed the second-most DK (26.4) and FD (21.4) points per game to slots and the 13th-most DK (15.8) and FD (12.7) points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Samuel's aligned in the slot 68.2% of the time this year, and Aiyuk has aligned there at a 68.3% clip. Both players are entering this game in good form. In the last four weeks, Samuel has had 32 targets, 19 receptions (4.8 per game), 360 receiving yards (90.0 per game) and five receiving touchdowns, and Aiyuk has had 26, 20 (5.0 per game, 322 (80.5 per game) and one. Samuel also had seven rush attempts for 41 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. The 49ers have an implied total north of 30. So, there's plenty of room for CMC to have a huge game and Samuel or Aiyuk to get theirs.
Commanders Analysis: San Francisco's defense is talented, but they haven't held perimeter wide receivers or tight ends in check. Since Week 13, the 49ers have allowed the seventh-most DK (20.7) and the ninth-most FD (15.5) points per game to perimeter wide receivers and yielded the fourth-most DK (16.8) and tied for the fifth-most FD (13.8) points per game allowed to tight ends.
Terry McLaurin has aligned wide 68.6% of the time this season, positioning him to exploit San Francisco's secondary. McLaurin could benefit from Washington pulling the plug on Sam Howell and inserting Jacoby Brissett as the starting quarterback. The veteran quarterback has relieved Howell in back-to-back games. In Week 15, he completed three passes to McLaurin for 93 yards and a touchdown.
Logan Thomas can also benefit from the quarterback switch and make the most of his favorable matchup. He caught a touchdown pass from Brissett in Week 16.
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: SEA -3.5
Over/Under: 41.0 Points
Steelers Analysis: The Steelers scored 34 points last week, but that was an outlier. They'd scored 18 points or fewer in the five previous games. Pittsburgh's not a source of DFS choices.
Seahawks Analysis: Since Week 15, Kenneth Walker has toted the rock 35 times for 140 yards and a touchdown and added four receptions for 28 receiving yards. The second-year running back isn't a consistent grinder but has home-run ability. Walker has a fantastic matchup to tap into his big-play potential. The Steelers have allowed the sixth-most DK (26.3) and FD (22.7) points per game to running backs since Week 13. Walker is tied for the RB1V at DK and has the RB7V at FD on this week's main slate.
Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -7.0
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Bengals Analysis: The Bengals deserve a ton of credit for fighting to stay in the playoff hunt, but that doesn't make them an appealing team in DFS, evidenced by their sub-20-point implied total.
Chiefs Analysis: Justin Watson and Richie James are matchup-driven punts who also benefit from Patrick Mahomes throwing them passes. Watson has run the third-most routes (114) for the Chiefs since Week 13, and James ran a season-high 19 last week. Watson has had over 30 receiving yards in consecutive games and scored a touchdown in three of his past six.
James had season highs for receptions (three) and receiving yards (54) last week. The Chiefs are desperate for playmakers in the passing attack. So, maybe James can carve out a more significant role this week.
And, again, they have a DFS-friendly matchup this week. Watson has aligned in the slot at a 50.0% rate, and James has at a 51.9% clip this season. Since Week 13, the Bengals have ceded the seventh-most DK (24.3) and the ninth-most FD (18.9) points per game to slots. They won't have tough sledding on the outside, either. Cincinnati has allowed the fifth-most DK (21.1) and the seventh-most FD (17.5) points per game to perimeter wideouts since Week 13.
Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Spread: DEN -3.5
Over/Under: 37.5 Points
Chargers Analysis: Gerald Everett has had a 28.6% target per route rate in Easton Stick's two starts. The veteran tight end turned his passing-game involvement into 12 receptions (6.0 per game) and 83 receiving yards (41.5 per game).
Everett has a desirable matchup this week. Since Week 13, the Broncos have tied for the seventh-most DK (16.1) and tied for the fifth-most FD (13.8) points per game permitted to tight ends. Everett has the TE1V at DK and is tied for the TE5V at FD.
Broncos Analysis: Stick has taken eight sacks and committed three turnovers in two starts this season. Denver's defense is the next to tee off on him. They're projected as the DST5 in DFS this week, with the DST2V at both providers.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
