There are nine games on Sunday’s NFL DFS main slate. Two games have totals of at least 47.0 points, with one sporting a 50.0-point total. They’re the most exciting games to stack. There’s also a sneakier, intriguing contest to stack, and the other games have viable players.
Week 16 Matchups
Game: Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: ATL -2.5
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Colts Analysis: Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman are defensible selections from the Colts, assuming the latter can clear the NFL’s concussion protocol. Nevertheless, there are more appealing options in their salary range or cheaper.
Falcons Analysis: Arthur Smith pulled the rug out from gamers using Bijan Robinson last week. Smith’s inconsistent and baffling usage of Robinson and unwillingness to force-feed targets to Drake London and Kyle Pitts are reasons to avoid the Falcons this week.
Game: Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers
Spread: GB -4.5
Over/Under: 37.5 Points
Packers Analysis: Dontayvion Wicks is an efficient wide receiver and a compelling DFS choice if Christian Watson, Jayden Reed or both are inactive this week. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he's 16th out of 61 receivers targeted at least 15 times since Week 12 in yards per route run (2.19 Y/RR). Wicks was also targeted on a rock-solid 21.9% of his 73 routes, demonstrating an ability to earn targets.
Tucker Kraft is also a fun choice with an enhanced role in Green Bay's passing attack. The rookie has flourished lately. In the previous two weeks, Kraft has snatched eight receptions for 121 receiving yards and one touchdown. Kraft has had precisely four receptions in back-to-back contests and had at least 55 receiving yards or a touchdown in three of his past four.
Panthers Analysis: The Panthers have been a run-first team lately. According to RotoViz's pace app, Carolina's 54% situation-neutral rush rate has tied for the highest since Week 12. Conversely, the Packers have tied for the fifth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (47%) against them.
Chuba Hubbard can make the most of this matchup if the Panthers keep it relatively close. Since Week 12, he's sixth in rushing yards per game (80.8) among running backs who've played more than one game. The matchup on Sunday is tasty for him. According to The 33rd Team, running backs have scored the fifth-most DraftKings (27.3) points per game and tied for the fourth-most FanDuel (22.9) points per game against the Packers since Week 12. They've also gashed them for 111 rushing yards per game, 4.8 yards per carry, four rushing touchdowns, 3.3 receptions per game, 26 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown.
Hubbard's robust workload and cushy matchup make him one of the top values at his position on this slate. According to the optimizer, Hubbard is tied for the RB2 value score (RB2V) at DK and has the RB4V at FD.
Jonathan Mingo hasn't popped in the boxscore. Yet, his underlying usage lately is eye-catching. The rookie wide receiver has the 10th-highest target share (28.6%) among wideouts since Week 12. This might be the week his blistering target share leads to DFS-friendly results.
Mingo's matchup is tantalizing. Per The 33rd Team, he's had a 47.2% slot rate this season. Since Week 12, slots have torched the Packers for the most DK (36.0) and FD (28.0) points per game. Mingo is the most useful at DK, where he has the WR3V.
Game: Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans
Spread: CLE -3.0
Over/Under: 40.0 Points
Browns Analysis: David Njoku has thrived since Joe Flacco has taken the reigns as Cleveland's starting quarterback. Among tight ends since Week 12, he's had the third-highest target share (22.2%) and tallied the fifth-most air yards per game (59). Njoku has parlayed his robust role into 24 receptions (6.0 per game), 271 receiving yards (67.8 per game) and three touchdowns. He's projected at the TE4 in DFS, with the TE1V at both outlets.
C.J. Stroud is still in the NFL's concussion protocol. Case Keenum started for him last week and will do the same this week if Stroud can't pass through the protocol. Keenum was sacked three times and threw one interception against Tennessee's lackluster defense in Week 15. Cleveland's elite defense can terrorize him this week and rack up sacks and turnovers, making their DST a high-upside pick in GPPs.
Texans Analysis: Cleveland's defense is a nightmare matchup for the most potent offenses, and Houston's Keenum-led offense is closer to the bottom than the top.
Game: Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: DET -3.0
Over/Under: 47.0 Points
Lions Analysis: Jared Goff got back on track against the Broncos last week at home. He's on the road this week, but he's playing indoors again. Goff could be busy as a passer against a pass-funnel defense. Minnesota is tied for the third-highest situation-neutral pass rate (64%) against since Week 12.
If Detroit's offensive line can keep Goff clean against Minnesota's blitz-heavy defense, he can carve up the Vikings. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Goff has averaged 272.2 passing yards per game and tossed 45 touchdowns in 20 games that weren't played outdoors since last season. He's projected to be the QB4 in DFS.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is Detroit's top dog in the passing attack. The Sun God has bested 100 receiving yards seven times this season, caught a touchdown in seven contests and had at least six receptions in 10 games. Against another blitz-heavy defense in Week 6, ARSB barbecued the Buccaneers for 12 receptions, 124 receiving yards and one touchdown. St. Brown is an elite pick this week, projected as the WR4, with the WR4V at FD.
Jameson Williams is an exciting value pick against the Vikings. First, the second-year pro ran the second-most routes (26) among Detroit's wide receivers in Week 15. Second, he converted his route participation into season highs for targets (seven) and receptions (four), producing 47 receiving yards.
The young speedster has aligned wide on 55.8% of his snaps this season, giving him a sweet matchup this week. Perimeter wide receivers have had the ninth-most DK (17.1) and FD (12.8) points per game against the Vikings since Week 12. Furthermore, if Minnesota's blitz doesn't get home, Williams can get behind them, as he did on a 45-yard touchdown reception against the Bucs.
Sam LaPorta is a high-upside pick. He had a touchdown hat trick last week, catching five of his targets for 56 receiving yards and three touchdowns. It was a brilliant bounce-back showing. Additionally, the uber-productive rookie had an outburst against the Saints in Week 13, corralling all nine of his targets for 140 yards and a touchdown. LaPorta is projected as the TE1 at FD and the TE2 at DK.
Vikings Analysis: It's not often Justin Jefferson has the potential to be underutilized on a DFS slate, but that might be the case with two other elite wide receivers squaring off in the game with the highest total on the slate. Jefferson ran the most routes (38) for the Vikings last week and paced the team in targets (10) and receptions (seven), finishing second on the club in receiving yards (84).
Jefferson has had a 58.8% slot rate and 39.3% wide rate this season and can run circles around Detroit's secondary from either spot. The Lions have allowed the 11th-most DK (15.5) and tied for the 10th-most FD (12.6) points per game ceded to perimeter wide receivers since Week 12. However, they've allowed more DK (19.1) and FD (14.3) points per game to slots. Jefferson is projected as the WR3 but has the upside to lead the entire slate in scoring. Gamers should mix him into their GPP portfolio.
It's not often someone other than Jefferson is the most exciting DFS pick on the Vikings, but Ty Chandler fits the bill in Week 16. The second-year pro was a workhorse without Alexander Mattison last week, handling 23 of the backfield's 24 rushing opportunities. Chandler ran for 132 yards and a touchdown and sprinkled in three receptions for 25 yards. Mattison hasn't practiced through Thursday, paving the way for another bell-cow effort. Yet, Chandler will likely headline the backfield even if Mattison can suit up.
Chandler is an outstanding pick at either DFS provider. Still, he's tied for the RB2V at DK.
Game: Washington Commanders at New York Jets
Spread: NYJ -3.0
Over/Under: 37.0 Points
Commanders Analysis: Washington's offense is in a funk, and Sam Howell is unlikely to snap them out of it against Gang Green's talented defense, hence a putrid implied total of 17.0 points. Gamers can confidently avoid the Commanders in DFS this week.
Jets Analysis: The Jets are favored at home. They can tee off on the sack-prone and turnover-prone Howell if they lead. The second-year quarterback has taken 59 sacks and turned the ball over 17 times this season. New York's defense is the DST1 in DFS this week, with the DST1V at DK.
Game: Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans
Spread: SEA -3.0
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Seahawks Analysis: Geno Smith has fully practiced this week and is poised to reprise his role as Seattle's starting quarterback. The Seahawks have had a 61% situation-neutral pass rate in their last four games despite Drew Lock starting two contests.
In Smith's last healthy start, he pushed the Cowboys to the limit, passing for 334 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. He also ran for a touchdown. Smith hasn't been consistent this season. Nonetheless, he's passed for over 300 yards four times, tossing multiple touchdowns in three of those games. Smith's ceiling is tailor-made for tournaments. He's projected to be the QB7 at both DFS providers in Week 16, tying for the QB1V at FD and sporting the QB5V at DK.
Smith has a trio of DFS-friendly wideouts, headlined by DK Metcalf. He's 12th among wideouts in air yards per game (108) since Week 12. In addition, in Smith's most recent start, Metcalf had six receptions, 134 receiving yards and three touchdown receptions. Metcalf had over 90 receiving yards and at least five receptions in three of Smith's last four starts.
The matchup is favorable for Metcalf this week. The Titans have allowed the 10th-most DK (16.1) and have tied for the 10th-most FD (12.6) points per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers since Week 12. So, Metcalf is tied for the WR2V at FD, and he has the WR5V at DK.
Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba aren't slouches, either. In the previous four games, they've tied for the team lead in receptions (17). Lockett had 187 scoreless yards on his receptions, and JSN had 176 and one touchdown on his.
Interestingly, while the Titans have been a good matchup for perimeter wideouts in the previous four weeks, they've ceded more DK (17.8) and FD (14.1) points per game to slots. Conveniently for Lockett and JSN, they've had 46.2% and 74.5% slot rates this season. Metcalf has had only a 21.1% slot rate this year. Lockett likely has a higher ceiling than JSN, but the rookie has the WR2V at DK.
Titans Analysis: The Titans are eliminated from playoff contention, creating some risk they'll take a look at younger players such as Tyjae Spears. They're not an appealing source of one-offs, but Derrick Henry, DeAndre Hopkins and Chigoziem Okonkwo are stellar game-stacking picks as bringbacks from the Seahawks.
King Henry hasn't shown slate-breaking potential this season, but he's still a load to tackle. Since Week 12, Henry is tied for second in broken tackles (eight) on rushes. The bowling ball of butcher's knives has a good matchup on a team that loves to run the ball. Since Week 12, running backs have trucked the Seahawks for 124 rushing yards per game, 5.2 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns. If Henry still has a slate-breaking ceiling in his range of outcomes, this is precisely the matchup to coax it out of him.
Hopkins has shown a higher ceiling than King Henry this season and would benefit from a negative game script. Nuk has been fourth among wideouts in target share (31.1%) and first in air yards per game (156) since Week 12. Perhaps those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt since Will Levis hasn't practiced this week, and Ryan Tannehill will fill in if the rookie can't play.
Still, Nuk doesn't have much target competition. Moreover, the matchup is eye-catching. Hopkins has a 41.7% slot rate this year, and it has been over 55% in three of his past five games. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have coughed up the third-most DK (30.7) and FD (25.3) points per game to slots since Week 12.
Okonkwo is the cheapest useful tight end in DFS this week. Since Week 12, he's third on the Titans in routes (98) and second in targets (19), receptions (15) and receiving yards (189). The second-year tight end could soak up a few more opportunities since wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was placed on injured reserve (IR) this week. Westbrook-Ikhine was second on the Titans in routes (111), fourth in targets (13), tied for fourth in receptions (eight) and third in receiving yards (130) in the last four weeks. Okonkwo can provide DFS gamers with value if his role is unchanged but might have a pinch more upside without Westbrook-Ikhine.
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: TB -2.0
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Jaguars Analysis: The floor is low for Calvin Ridley and Parker Washington. Trevor Lawrence is in the NFL's concussion protocol and is projected to miss this week's game, leaving C.J. Beathard to step up in his absence. Beathard might wilt against Tampa Bay's high blitz rate.
Still, Ridley was fourth in air yards per game (144) among wideouts since Week 12. He's easily the best healthy wide receiver. Although, Evan Engram is arguably the top pass-catching option. Ridley's vertical usage is prone to volatility but gives him a high ceiling built for tournaments.
Tampa Bay elevates his ceiling as an above-average matchup. Since Week 12, they're tied for the 12th-most DK (14.4) and have allowed the 15th-most FD (10.7) points per game to perimeter wideouts. They've allowed more DK (20.4) and FD (15.7) points per game in that period. Ridley is an optimizer darling at FD, where he's tied for the WR2V.
Washington is basically a slot-only wide receiver. The rookie has an 80.0% slot rate and an 18.4% wide rate this season. Washington was pushed up the depth chart after Christian Kirk was injured on his first snap in Week 13. Since then, Washington has been fourth on the Jags in routes (95) and had 12 receptions for 99 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
Jacksonville might call Washington's number more frequently this year since Zay Jones hasn't practiced this week. Jones went into last week wearing a brace for a knee injury he's battled all year and suffered a hamstring injury. If he's out, Washington will have even less target competition.
Buccaneers Analysis: The Buccaneers have found a successful running game lately and leaned into it. Since Week 12, their 48% situation-neutral rush rate was tied for the sixth-highest mark. Rachaad White was the catalyst of the running game as the club's workhorse. Among running backs since Week 12, the second-year pro was third in rushing yards per game (93.8). In that stretch, he also had 2.3 receptions per game, 28.8 receiving yards per game and three touchdowns (one rushing and two receiving). White is the RB1 in DFS, with the RB1V at FD and the RB5V at DK.
Tampa Bay's defense is the cheapest helpful option at both DFS outlets. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Beathard has had an 8.6 sack% and 2.7 interception% in his career. Among qualified quarterbacks this season, those marks would be the seventh-highest and tied for the sixth-highest. The Bucs can pin their ears back and tee off on Beathard. They have the DST3V at both DFS providers.
Game: Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears
Spread: CHI -4.0
Over/Under: 43.0 Points
Cardinals Analysis: Trey McBride is balling out. He's led tight ends in target share (27.6%) since Week 12. The second-year tight end was also first in yards per route run (2.56 Y/RR) among those targeted at least eight times. In his past four games, McBride has had 30 receptions (7.5 per game), 294 receiving yards (73.5 per game) and one touchdown.
McBride is in an eruption spot against the Bears. Chicago has allowed the third-most DK (17.2) and the fourth-most FD (13.8) points per game since Week 12. McBride is the TE1 at DK and the TE2 at FD, with the TE2V at the former and the TE5V at the latter.
Bears Analysis: Chicago's defense has wreaked havoc lately, tallying 12 sacks and forcing 14 turnovers in their last four games. The Bears should shine again against Kyler Murray and Arizona's lousy offense. Murray has taken 14 sacks and committed four turnovers in five starts. Additionally, Murray hasn't lost any of his five fumbles. So, he could have had more turnovers with less good fortune on his fumbles. The Bears are the DST4 this week, with the DST2V at DK.
Game: Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins
Spread: MIA -1.0
Over/Under: 50.0 Points
Cowboys Analysis: The Cowboys are in a familiar position. They were on the road in the highest projected scoring game last week against a high-powered AFC East opponent. The Cowboys didn't show up, getting clowned by the Bills. Nevertheless, one bad game doesn't undo Dallas's previous work.
They've had a high-octane offense. Dak Prescott was playing at an MVP level before last week's stinker. And even with his lackluster showing last week, Prescott was fifth in passing yards per game (259) and passed for nine touchdowns and only one interception since Week 12. He can quiet the critics by rebounding this week and is projected as the QB2 in DFS in Week 16, with the QB4V at FD.
CeeDee Lamb is the most exciting pick on the Cowboys. Among wideouts since Week 12, he was second in target share (32.2%) and sixth in air yards per game (119). Dallas's No. 1 wideout had 29 receptions (7.3 per game), 293 receiving yards (73.3 per game), three touchdown receptions, four rushes, 33 rushing yards (8.3 per game) and one rushing touchdown in those contests. He's the WR1 in DFS, with a matching WR1V at both providers.
In Dallas's passing attack, Jake Ferguson and Brandin Cooks are the second and third weapons. Since Week 12, Cooks was second on the team in routes (144), fourth in targets (20), fourth in receptions (3.0 per game), third in receiving yards (41.0 per game) and second in touchdown receptions (two). Ferguson was third in routes (133), second in targets (25), tied for second in receptions (4.5 per game), second in receiving yards (57.0 per game) and had one touchdown reception. If this game is a shootout like the game's total suggests it will be, ancillary pieces can be critical for winning or finishing high in GPPs.
Tony Pollard could be an undervalued part of this game since many gamers will likely prefer to use Miami's explosive running backs instead after James Cook ran through the Cowboys a week ago. Pollard hasn't lived up to the lofty expectations many fantasy gamers had for him entering this season.
Still, Pollard has had at least 14 opportunities (rushes plus targets) in eight straight games. He's had at least 80 scrimmage yards and at least three receptions in four of his previous five games, scoring a touchdown in three of those contests. Pollard is projected as the RB4 in DFS this week, with the RB3V at FD and the RB9V at DK.
Dolphins Analysis: Tua Tagovailoa hasn't been a DFS monster lately. Yet, he's played exceptionally well. Among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks since Week 12, Tagovailoa is PFF's third-ranked passer and third in yards per attempt (8.9). He completed a blistering 74.8% of his passes in those four games.
The matchup is good for him this week. The Cowboys are tied for the 10th-most DK (20.0) and tied for the 11th-most FD (18.5) points per game allowed to quarterbacks since Week 12. Tagovailoa can light up the Cowboys, especially if they devote too many resources to attempt to stop the run. The lefty is the QB3 in DFS.
Of course, since the Cowboys couldn't slow Cook and Buffalo's running game last week, the Dolphins might make them prove they can slow their backfield down. After last week's pitiful showing, the Cowboys have yielded 120 rushing yards per game, 4.7 yards per carry, three rushing touchdowns, 2.3 receptions per game, 28 receiving yards per game, 12.4 yards per reception and one receiving touchdown to running backs since Week 12.
Raheem Mostert is Miami's lead running back. The 31-year-old speedster has had at least 12 opportunities in every game this year. He's averaged 14.1 rush attempts per game, 69.0 rushing yards per game, 1.7 receptions per game and 12.2 receiving yards per game this season. Mostert is also tied for first in rushing plus receiving touchdowns (20) this season. He's the RB2 in DFS this week.
De'Von Achane doesn't need a massive workload to break a slate. He's had over 100 scrimmage yards four times in eight games, reaching at least 120 three times. In the rookie's four eruptions, he scored four, two, one and two touchdowns. Achane has been relatively quiet in the previous two weeks. Yet, 16 rushes for 79 rushing yards (39.5 per game), 12 targets, eight receptions (4.0 per game) and 54 receiving yards (27.0 per game) weren't terrible. Gamers will need more than that from him at his high salary, though. Achane has a perfect profile for GPPs.
Tyreek Hill is trending toward a return from a one-week absence with an ankle injury. Hill can top the slate in scoring if he can pick up where he left off. Hill is first in yards per route run (4.57 Y/RR) and tied for second in PFF's receiving grade among 61 wide receivers targeted at least 15 times since Week 12.
Could Hill's injury impact his production? Maybe. The Dolphins could conceivably use him as a decoy more often than usual if they don't believe he can do everything they typically ask of him. Yet, assuming he doesn't have a setback and suits up this week, the Dolphins presumably don't harbor concerns about his ankle.
Hill has had a 61.7% slot and a 33.6% wide rate this year, spiking as high as a 51.4% wide rate against the Eagles in Week 17. When Hill aligns on the perimeter, he'll have a mouthwatering matchup. The Cowboys have allowed the second-most DK (22.4) and the third-most FD (16.9) points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 12. Hill is the WR2 in DFS this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
