The NFL Week 15 DFS main slate has 10 games. However, the games projected for the most points are backloaded into the afternoon, with two sporting totals north of 50 in the late window. Still, the early games also have intriguing DFS choices.
Week 15 Matchups
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Spread: ATL -3.0
Over/Under: 34.0 Points
Falcons Analysis: Atlanta's offense is powered by the rushing attack. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Falcons have had the NFL's highest situation-neutral rush rate (53%) since Week 11. Conversely, the Panthers are tied for the seventh-highest situation-neutral rush rate (44%) against them in the timeframe.
It's an excellent setup for Bijan Robinson, especially since the Falcons are favored. The do-it-all rookie has had at least 17 opportunities (rush attempts plus targets) in four straight games. Robinson has turned those chances into 99.0 scrimmage yards per game, 3.0 receptions per game and four touchdowns.
Atlanta's defense isn't cheap. Yet, they're a high-upside choice worth mixing into GPP multi-entry portfolios. Bryce Young has taken at least four sacks in four consecutive games and seven of his past eight, getting sacked three times in the outlier. The rookie has also had at least one turnover in four straight contests.
Panthers Analysis: Jonathan Mingo hasn't scored a touchdown or reached 70 scrimmage yards in a game in his rookie campaign. However, his target volume is alluring, earning 19 in the past two games. Carolina's second-round pick in this year's NFL Draft was targeted at least six times in his last six games. Mingo had a dud last week but amassed lines of 4-60-0 in Week 12 and 6-69-0 in Week 13.
Game: Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns
Spread: CLE -3.0
Over/Under: 38.5 Points
Bears Analysis: Chicago's defense is in a groove. The Bears have allowed 13 points or fewer to three of their last four opponents. They've also forced an eye-popping 11 turnovers and recorded 11 sacks in those games. Joe Flacco has turned the ball over three times and taken three sacks in his two starts this season.
Browns Analysis: The Browns are the A-side of a probable defensive struggle. They're at home and favored, setting the stage for them to tee off on the sack-prone Justin Fields. The third-year pro has taken multiple sacks in every game and absorbed at least three in eight of nine games this season. Fields has also committed a turnover in six contests and done so multiple times in four games. The Browns are projected as the DST4 in DFS this week, tying for the DST4 value score (DST4V) at DraftKings and tying for the DST1V at FanDuel.
Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers
Spread: GB -3.5
Over/Under: 42.0 Points
Buccaneers Analysis: The Buccaneers have been rewarded for their patience with Rachaad White. The second-year pro entered the NFL with receiving chops but was an inefficient runner. The light has gone on lately for White as a runner, with him rumbling for 100, 84 and 102 yards in his previous three games. His pass-catching chops haven't disappeared, either.
As a result, White has reached triple-digit scrimmage yards in three straight games, splashing paydirt in his past two and five of his last six. The Bucs have leaned into the running game as well. Since Week 11, they're tied for the fifth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (49%). They'll almost certainly keep feeding White this week since the Packers are tied for facing the second-highest situation-neutral rush rate (47%) since Week 11.
Jordan Love was the bell of the ball after a three-week heater from Week 11 through Week 13 before serving as the latest reminder that development isn't always linear for quarterbacks by struggling mightily against the Giants on Monday. Big Blue has a blitz-heavy defense, and the Buccaneers do as well. Will Tampa Bay's heavy blitzing tendencies force Love into another sloppy showing? Maybe.
Packers Analysis: Remarkably, Jayden Reed has averaged only 3.6 yards per reception on 12 receptions in his last two games. Nevertheless, his receptions count for a point each at DK and a half-point each at FD. In addition, the rookie has had at least four receptions in five straight games, at least 50 scrimmage yards in four of his last five contests, and scored a touchdown in each game he reached the 50-yard threshold. The optimizer is projecting Reed for the WR3V at DK and the WR4V at FD.
Tucker Kraft is a playing time and matchup-driven punt. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Kraft has run the second-most routes (108) on the Packers since Week 11. The rookie tight end hasn't had a blow-up game. However, last week, he had season-highs for receptions (four) and receiving yards (64). Kraft has had over 30 receiving yards in three of his last four games, scoring a touchdown in the outlier.
Kraft can build on last week's rock-solid showing in a cushy matchup this week. According to The 33rd Team, the Buccaneers have allowed the fifth-most DK (15.2) and FD (12.5) points per game to tight ends since Week 11.
Game: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Spread: MIA -9.5
Over/Under: 37.0 Points
Jets Analysis: Zach Wilson was reinserted as Gang Green's starting quarterback last week and excelled. Gamers should be wary of him reverting to his prior form. Regardless, Wilson has wisely force-fed Garrett Wilson. New York's No. 1 wideout has averaged 6.8 receptions per game and 72.5 receiving yards per game in the other Wilson's last four starts. The second-year wideout is a value at both DFS providers, with the WR2V at DK and the WR6V at FD.
Dolphins Analysis: Tyreek Hill hasn't practiced all week, putting him in danger of missing this week's game. Miami's offense wasn't as sharp when he was on the sideline last week, and there's a risk the offense could crater against New York's stout defense if Hill is out.
However, they could also lean more heavily on their running game, which Raheem Mostert headlines. The veteran running back has had over 20 opportunities in three of his last four games and could. De'Von Achane picked up a new injury on Monday and could miss this game or have his workload reduced if he's ineffective. Thus, another 20-plus opportunities could be on the docket for Mostert, who cleared 90 scrimmage yards in his last three games with that many chances. He also has a nose for the end zone, scoring five touchdowns since Week 12 and an NFL-high 18 this season.
Even if Achane plays and cuts into Mostert's workload, the latter can have value in a tasty matchup. The Jets have permitted running backs the seventh-most DK (28.2) and tied for the fifth-most FD (24.7) points per game allowed to them since Week 11.
Game: New York Giants at New Orleans Saints
Spread: NO -6.0
Over/Under: 39.0 Points
Giants Analysis: Tommy DeVito had eyes for Wan'Dale Robinson in New York's first game after their Week 13 bye, targeting the second-year pro a team-high seven times. Robinson converted his team-high in targets into six receptions for 79 yards. He also ran twice for 36 yards.
Interestingly, Robinson wasn't merely used as a manufactured touch or shallow-depth option in his excellent performance last week. Instead, he had a 10.0-yard average depth of target (aDOT). Robinson's not a shoo-in to help DFS teams again this week, but he's projected as the WR1V at DK.
Saints Analysis: There's always a case for using Alvin Kamara. However, there are more appealing high-salary studs on this slate than Kamara.
Game: Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Spread: TEN -3.0
Over/Under: 37.0 Points
Texans Analysis: Xavier Hutchinson is a galaxy-brain punt. The rookie wideout ran the third-most routes (23) among Houston's wide receivers last week. Nico Collins is out, and Noah Brown has been limited in practice by a knee injury. Hutchinson's larger role than John Metchie last week suggests the former is ahead of the latter in the passing-game hierarchy and is the next person up without Collins.
The rookie might also have a rapport with Davis Mills since the two were backups and presumably had practice reps together. C.J. Stroud is out. So, Mills is starting.
Hutchinson was productive in college and might not be overwhelmed by an enhanced role for the Texans. According to PFF, Hutchinson was targeted on 37.4% of his 430 routes and had 107 receptions, 1,171 receiving yards and six touchdown receptions in his final collegiate season in 2022.
Titans Analysis: Will Levis has had an up-and-down rookie campaign. He burst onto the scene by torching the Falcons for 238 passing yards and four touchdowns. Levis didn't have another fantasy-friendly showing in his next five games but showed glimpses before picking the Dolphins apart for 327 passing yards and one passing touchdown in Week 14. The Texans made Gang Green's passing attack look like a well-oiled machine last week and could allow Levis to maintain momentum from his first 300-plus passing-yard effort as a pro.
DeAndre Hopkins is comfortably atop Tennessee's passing-game pecking order. He had a huge 4-128-3 effort in Levis's first career start and reached triple-digit yardage for the second time with the rookie in Week 14, barbecuing the Dolphins for 7-124-1. Nuk had two useful DFS games sprinkled in between his outbursts.
Tennessee's No. 1 wide receiver has had superb underlying data in Levis's seven starts. In those games, Nuk had a 27.9% target share and averaged 136 air yards per game. The optimizer is projecting Hopkins as the WR10 at DK and the WR11 at FD, with the WR5V at the former.
Game: Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Spread: KC -8.0
Over/Under: 37.0 Points
Chiefs Analysis: Rashee Rice has spent the entire season climbing Kansas City's pass-catching hierarchy and enjoyed a post-bye rookie bump. Since Week 11, he's second on the Chiefs in routes (116), first in targets (34), first in receptions (27), second in receiving yards (285) and tied for first in touchdown receptions (two).
Also of note was his recent alignment. According to The 33rd Team, since Week 12, Rice has aligned wide on 56.4%, 40.5% and 55.8% of his snaps, his three highest rates of the year. Since Week 11, the Patriots have allowed the fourth-most DK (22.9) and tied for the third-most FD (17.9) points per game allowed to perimeter wideouts. So, Rice is projected as the WR11 at DK and the WR14 at FD, with the WR2V at the latter and tied for the WR8V at the former.
Patriots Analysis: New England's offensive ineptitude has overshadowed the high-caliber play of their defense. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Patriots have allowed the fourth-fewest yards per play (4.8) this season. They've allowed only 20.9 points per game, forced 12 turnovers and tallied 26 sacks. The turnovers and sacks weren't impressive marks.
Still, Patrick Mahomes has committed at least one turnover in seven of his previous eight games and was sacked at least once in 10 straight. Furthermore, the Chiefs have scored 21 points or fewer in five of their last six. Kansas City isn't the offensive juggernaut they've been in most of the Mahomes era. So, gamers shouldn't dismiss using New England's defense this week.
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: SF -12.5
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
49ers Analysis: Christian McCaffrey is a DFS cheat code. He's a game-script-proof, high-floor, high-ceiling stud. Still, CMC has been a monster in San Francisco's 10 wins this season. In 10 victories, McCaffrey has averaged 134.8 scrimmage yards per game (103.5 rushing yards per game), 4.0 receptions per game and scored 12 touchdowns.
McCaffrey has a drool-inducing matchup this week. The Cardinals have coughed up the third-most DK (33.1) and FD (28.1) points per game to running backs since Week 11. And when the 49ers smashed the Cardinals earlier this season, McCaffrey had 106 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, seven receptions, 71 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. He's the RB1 in DFS in Week 15, with the RB1V at FD and the RB3V at DK.
Deebo Samuel is an exciting pivot from CMC in GPPs. Samuel had zero targets and only six rushing yards against the Cardinals in the first matchup. Nonetheless, Samuel is on fire. In San Francisco's last three games, he's had 18 receptions (6.0 per game), 382 scrimmage yards (127.3 per game) and six touchdowns. Samuel has also cleared 100 receiving yards in back-to-back games.
Samuel has a favorable matchup for extending his heater through this week. He has had a 69.0% slot rate this season, and the Cardinals are tied for the third-most DK (27.0) and have allowed the eighth-most FD (19.8) points per game to slots since Week 11. The optimizer is projecting Samuel as the WR3 in DFS, with the WR5V at FD and the WR7V at DK.
George Kittle is another alluring piece from the 49ers. He's projected as the TE2 in DFS, with the TE2V at FD and the TE5V at DK. Since San Francisco's bye, Kittle has averaged 5.0 receptions per game and 86.2 receiving yards per game and scored three touchdowns. There was only one bust in that six-game sample, too. Kittle cleared 65 receiving yards in five of those contests and had at least three receptions in all six games. He also scored a touchdown in three of those games.
Kittle had only one reception for nine scoreless yards against the Cardinals in Week 4. However, the matchup is tasty. The Cardinals have allowed the ninth-most DK (12.9) and FD (11.0) points per game to tight ends since Week 11.
Cardinals Analysis: Trey McBride is a burgeoning stud at his position. Among tight ends since Week 10, he's second in target share (26.8%) and fifth in air yards per game (54). The second-year pro has turned that sterling underlying data into 7.0 receptions per game, 80.8 receiving yards per game, 2.48 Y/RR and one receiving touchdown.
The Cardinals are the only double-digit underdog on this slate, and Arizona will likely have to chuck it from the opening whistle to the end of the game to attempt to keep up with the 49ers. McBride is the TE3 in DFS, with the TE2V at DK and tied for the TE3V at FD.
Michael Wilson is back this week, and Jonathan Gannon believes he'll pick up where he left off.
Sadly, Wilson has played only one game with Kyler Murray this season. Still, the rookie wideout teased his potential with lesser quarterbacks earlier this season, clearing 60 receiving yards three times in nine games this year. His best game was a 7-76-2 performance against the 49ers in Week 4.
Wilson has played wide and in the slot this season, aligning wide 47.7% of the time. Since Week 11, the 49ers have coughed up the second-most DK (24.2) and FD (18.2) points per game to perimeter wide receivers. Wilson is an exciting punt this week.
Game: Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: LAR -6.5
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Commanders Analysis: Antonio Gibson had season-highs for opportunities (15) and touches (14) in Washington's final game before their bye in Week 14. Starting running back Brian Robinson was ruled out, leaving Gibson as the next person up. Gibson could have a bell-cow role but should, at worst, handle the passing-down work and split the rushing workload with rookie Chris Rodriguez. The passing-down work is more valuable than the early-down work, especially since the Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog.
Even if the game is close, Washington will likely take to the air. They've had a 63% situation-neutral pass rate in their past three games, and the Rams have faced a 65% situation-neutral pass rate in their last four games. Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas are the most intriguing pass-catching choices from Washington, salary considered.
In Washington's four most recent games, Dotson has led the team in routes (157), and Thomas was third (133). Dotson had an unexciting 10 receptions for 98 receiving yards and one touchdown on 17 targets. Meanwhile, Thomas had 12 receptions for 113 yards.
Dotson's route participation and alignment deployment were encouraging for this matchup. He's aligned wide on 43.4% of his snaps this season, a higher rate than Curtis Samuel (18.8%) but lower than Terry McLaurin (68.3%). The alignment advantage gives Dotson the edge over Samuel, and the salary savings give him the nod over McLaurin. The Rams have allowed the most DK (26.6) and FD (20.4) points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 11.
Thomas also has a favorable matchup. The Rams have allowed the sixth-most DK (15.1) and FD (12.2) points per game to tight ends since Week 11. Thomas is a viable one-off choice and an appealing game-stacking selection.
Rams Analysis: Matthew Stafford and LA's passing attack are in an eruption spot this week. They've had a 59% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 11, and the Commanders have faced an NFL-high 71% situation-neutral pass rate in that timespan. Washington's defense hasn't had answers for slowing passing attacks, tying for the second-most DK (25.7) points per game allowed and allowing the second-most FD (24.7) points per game to quarterbacks since Week 11.
Stafford's locked in entering this game, averaging 267.3 passing yards per game with 10 touchdowns and one interception in his previous three games. He's a screaming value at both DFS outlets this week, with the QB1V at FD and the QB3V at DK.
Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are both elite picks. Kupp has had a down season but was outstanding last week, hauling in eight receptions for 115 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. Nacua has busted only once in his past four games, reaching paydirt in two of his last four and tallying at least 70 yards three times. Since Week 11, the rookie has had 31 targets, 18 receptions (4.5 per game), 286 receiving yards (71.5 per game), two receiving touchdowns, four rush attempts and 44 rushing yards (11.0 per game).
Kupp and Nacua have a mouthwatering matchup against Washington's pathetic secondary. Since Week 11, the Commanders have allowed the fifth-most DK (22.7) points and tied for the third-most FD (17.9) points per game allowed to perimeter wideouts. They've also tied for the sixth-most DK (25.5) points per game and allowed the fourth-most FD (21.3) points per game to slots since Week 11. Kupp is projected as the WR4 at FD and the WR8 at DK, with the WR3V at FD. Nacua is the WR6 at DK and the WR7 at FD.
Kyren Williams also has a delectable matchup. The Commanders have allowed the second-most DK (34.7) and the most FD (31.0) points per game to running backs since Week 11. Williams has the workhorse role to take the maximum advantage of his cushy matchup. The second-year pro's 82% snap share is tied for the highest among running backs this season.
Williams isn't merely standing out on the field, either. He's had at least 20 touches in six of nine games this season. Furthermore, Williams has had at least 100 scrimmage yards six times, reached paydirt in six games and scored multiple touchdowns in four games. He's projected to be the RB2 in DFS in Week 15, with the RB1V at DK and the RB5V at FD.
Game: Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -2.0
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Cowboys Analysis: This game should justifiably be the most popular to stack this week. The game's total is north of 50, and the spread is slight enough to project a back-and-forth shootout. Gamers are encouraged to invest in the studs in this game. However, ancillary pieces are also worth sprinkling in to differentiate in GPPs.
Dallas's offense runs through Dak Prescott. They've had a 59% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 11. The Cowboys probably won't need to deviate from that plan against a defense that's faced a 63% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 11.
Prescott is playing at a truly unmatched level lately. Since Week 10, he's been PFF's highest-ranked passer and is first in big-time-throw rate (8.4 BTT%), second in passing yards (1,520) and first in touchdown passes (15) among quarterbacks with at least 40 dropbacks. He's passed for multiple touchdowns in seven straight games and cleared 300 passing yards four times in those contests.
Prescott can also chip in rushing production. He's had double-digit rushing yards in seven of his last eight games and scored two rushing touchdowns. Prescott is projected to be the QB2 in DFS this week.
CeeDee Lamb is projected as the WR1 at both providers in Week 15, with the WR1V at FD. Since Dallas's bye in Week 7, Lamb has had the fourth-highest target share (32.6%) and averaged the most air yards per game (142) among wide receivers, parlaying his elite underlying data into the most receptions per game (8.9), the most receiving yards per game (111.1) and the most receiving touchdowns (seven). The third-year pro is unguardable and an excellent choice in all game types on Sunday.
In the following order, Jake Ferguson and Brandin Cooks are also sweet picks from Dallas's high-octane passing attack. Since Dallas's bye, Ferguson was third on the team in routes (244), second in targets (43), second in receptions (30), third in receiving yards (380) and tied for second in receiving touchdowns (four), and Cooks was second in routes (245), third in targets (34), third in receptions (26), second in receiving yards (425) and tied for second in receiving touchdowns (four). Ferguson is projected as the TE4 in DFS this week.
Tony Pollard is another desirable piece from this game. He had only 13 touches in his first game back from the team's bye but has had at least 15 in six straight, including precisely 23 in his past two games. Pollard has had at least 80 scrimmage yards in four consecutive contests, caught at least three passes in each and scored a touchdown in three of those games. Since Week 11, Pollard has averaged 90.5 scrimmage yards per game and 5.0 receptions per game with three touchdowns.
The matchup isn't imposing for Pollard this week. The Bills have allowed running backs 113.7 scrimmage yards per game, 4.9 yards per carry and 4.7 receptions per game in their past three games. Pollard's involvement in the passing attack and the matchup makes him a reasonable stacking option with Prescott, in addition to being a stellar one-off or game-stacking option as a bring-back from the Bills.
Bills Analysis: The Bills are home favorites against the visiting Cowboys and should hold up their end of making this game a DFS-friendly shootout. Buffalo's offense has excelled since firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and replacing him with Joe Brady after Week 10. In three games with Brady as the offensive coordinator, they've scored 32, 34 and 20 points.
The Bills have had a 56% situation-neutral pass rate in their last three games. However, that could tick up this week since Dallas's opponents have had a 64% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 11. Even if the Bills stick to their guns with a relatively balanced attack, Josh Allen can feast.
In three games with Brady as the team's play-caller, he's passed for 847 yards (282.3 per game), six touchdowns and three interceptions. The dual-threat quarterback has also rushed for 128 yards (42.7 per game) and three touchdowns. According to The 33rd Team, Allen has had 10 designed runs in his last three games versus 17 in his first 10 games. Allen's surge in designed runs has elevated his floor and ceiling. He's the QB1 in DFS this week, with the QB2V at FD and the QB6V at DK.
After coming out of the gates hot this season, Stefon Diggs has been on a milk carton. Buffalo's No. 1 wideout has cleared 75 receiving yards only once in his last seven games. However, he's been targeted precisely 11 times in back-to-back contests, and Diggs's lackluster play lately could depress the percentage of tournament rosters he's on, enhancing the appeal of using him in GPPs.
Additionally, the matchup is good for Diggs. He's aligned wide 58.7% of the time this season, and the Cowboys have allowed the third-most DK (23.1) and the fifth-most FD (17.3) points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 11.
Their coverage tendencies are also ideal for Diggs's outlook this week. According to PFF, the Cowboys have played man coverage at the fourth-highest rate this year. Diggs has had a 24.7% target rate against man coverage with 1.76 Y/RR this season.
The matchup is a mixed bag for Gabe Davis. He's had only a 14.6% target rate with 1.09 Y/RR against man coverage. However, Davis has aligned wide at a 57.0% rate this season. Davis is the epitome of a boom-or-bust wideout.
Dawson Knox was activated from the injured reserve last week. His return didn't cut into Dalton Kincaid's route participation, though. Kincaid's 42 routes were tied for the most on the Bills in Week 14. The rookie tight end had seven targets and five receptions but only 21 scoreless receiving yards last week. Kincaid's route participation was ideal for his DFS utility, and he's shown the ability to produce when given opportunities, amassing 24 targets, 20 receptions (6.7 per game), 197 receiving yards (65.7 per game) and three touchdowns during a three-game stretch from Week 8 through Week 10.
Knox's return was suboptimal for Khalil Shakir since the Bills used more 12-personnel at his expense. Still, Shakir was fourth on the team in routes (32) and third among the club's wideouts in Week 14. The second-year pro has proven capable of panning out as a value pick on a modest volume of targets. He had 6-92-0 on six targets in Week 8, 4-57-0 on four targets in Week 9 and 3-115-1 on four targets in Week 11.
James Cook isn't a bell-cow, but Brady has used him effectively. In his last three games, Cook has averaged 14.3 rush attempts per game, 58.0 rushing yards per game, 4.7 receptions per game and scored two touchdowns. The Bills are favored. So, the game script could be good for Cook's rushing outlook. The second-year pro can also contribute as a receiver if the Bills are in a negative game script.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
