There are two teams on a bye and four island contests, leaving 11 games on the NFL Week 14 DFS main slate. One game is a cut above the rest for stacking this week. However, there are a few other intriguing offenses to stack and a handful of appealing skinny game stacks.
Week 14 Matchups
Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: ATL -1.5
Over/Under: 41.0 Points
Buccaneers Analysis: Mike Evans is racking up the air yards, ranking second in air yards per game (126) this season. They're not empty air yards, either. The veteran wideout has averaged 5.1 receptions per game and 84.3 receiving yards per game with 10 touchdowns in 12 contests.
Evans has also been in superb form. Among 57 wide receivers targeted at least 15 times since Week 10, Evans is Pro Football Focus's (PFF's) third-ranked receiver, tied for fifth in receptions (24), second in receiving yards (418), fourth in yards per route run (3.17 Y/RR) and first in touchdown receptions (five). The lineup optimizer projects him as the WR5 in DFS this week.
Rachaad White has a workhorse role, giving him a massive weekly ceiling. In Tampa Bay's previous four games, the second-year running back has handled 85.3% of the backfield's rush share, averaged 66.3 rushing yards per game, 3.3 receptions per game, 26.8 receiving yards per game and scored three touchdowns. White has a GPP-friendly ceiling, and his game-script-proof role insulates his value.
Falcons Analysis: The Jets put the clamps on Drake London last week, as they've done to many wide receivers before this season. Still, London has had at least five receptions and over 50 receiving yards in five of his last seven games.
The Falcons have a run-heavy offense. Nevertheless, teams have chosen or been forced to take to the air against the Buccaneers. According to RotoViz's pace app, Tampa Bay's opponents have had a 59% pass rate in neutral game scripts since Week 10.
London is Atlanta's top passing-game weapon and would benefit the most from even a slight uptick in passing rate for this matchup. He's also fared well in three games against the Bucs in his young career, averaging 5.3 receptions per game and 69.7 receiving yards per game against his NFC South foe. The second-year pro has the WR3 value score (WR3V) at DraftKings.
Atlanta's defense is an appealing low-salary choice. First, the Falcons are favored and at home. Second, Baker Mayfield is in a funk. He's been PFF's 25th-ranked passer, has had the third-highest turnover-worthy-play rate (5.5 TWP%) and has had the eighth-highest pressure-to-sack rate (24.6 P2S%) among 37 quarterbacks who've dropped back at least 40 times since Week 10.
Game: Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: BAL -7.5
Over/Under: 40.0 Points
Rams Analysis: The only thing that's slowed Kyren Williams this season was a stint on the injured reserve (IR). Otherwise, he's been a fantasy dreamboat. The second-year pro has smashed in two games since returning from IR, carrying the ball 37 times for 231 yards and one touchdown. Williams was also a pass-catching weapon, snaring nine receptions for 85 receiving yards and two touchdowns since Week 12. Williams's ceiling is tailor-made for GPPs.
Ravens Analysis: The Ravens are favored at home after their bye. In their final three games before their bye, the Ravens had a 51% pass rate and a 49% rush rate in neutral game scripts. Thankfully, Lamar Jackson contributes to the rush rate as a dual-threat signal-caller.
Jackson has accounted for multiple touchdowns in five games this year, spiking for ceiling showings in Week 4 (186 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, 27 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns) and Week 7 (357 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, 36 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown).
The Rams have faced the fifth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (66%) since Week 10. After a week of the Ravens self-scouting and coming out of their bye against a pass-funnel defense, it could be a recipe for a ceiling game from Jackson. He's an elite tournament pick as the projected QB3, with the QB1V at FD.
Odell Beckham is merely a piece of Baltimore's rotation at wide receiver. Thankfully, he has enough juice to make the most of the gig. Among wideouts targeted at least 10 times since Week 10, OBJ is second in yards per route run (4.63 Y/RR), second in yards after contact per reception (12.1 YAC/REC) and has the third-deepest average depth of target (17.2-yard aDOT).
The rejuvenated veteran also has an excellent matchup this week. According to The 33rd Team, Beckham has aligned wide 78.0% of the time this season. Meanwhile, the Rams have allowed the third-most DraftKings (21.1) and FanDuel (17.6) points per game to perimeter wideouts since Week 10. OBJ has the WR4V at DK.
Mark Andrews was injured early in Week 11, and Isaiah Likely has slid into his starting role since. He ran the second-most routes (59) for the Ravens in their two games before the bye. The second-year tight end had only five targets, four receptions and 40 scoreless yards.
Nonetheless, Likely showed he's capable of more last season and has a cushy matchup this week. The Rams have ceded the eighth-most DK (13.7) and FD (10.7) points per game to tight ends since Week 10. Likely is an intriguing value selection at tight end and has the TE7 projection, with the TE1V at both DFS providers this week.
Keaton Mitchell is a pocket-sized home-run threat. The diminutive rookie running back has had the second-most yards per carry (6.6) and the third-most yards before contact per attempt (4.0 YBCON/ATT) among running backs who've had at least 20 carries since Week 10. Mitchell has also exploded for five rushes of 20-plus yards and two 40-plus yards on only 29 attempts this season.
In Baltimore's last three games, he handled 33.9% of Baltimore's backfield rush share. However, he led the backfield in rush attempts (nine) in their final game before the bye. Perhaps that's a sign of things to come.
Mitchell has also secured six receptions on seven targets for 70 yards. The matchup might allow him to snag a few receptions to bolster his DFS value. Since Week 10, the Rams have allowed the second-most receptions per game (6.7) to running backs. Mitchell is the cheapest viable running back on this week's slate and has the RB2V at DK.
Game: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Spread: DET -3.0
Over/Under: 43.0 Points
Lions Analysis: Amon-Ra St. Brown has been unbelievably consistent this season. The Sun God has had over 100 receiving yards six times and scored a touchdown in four of the outlier contests. In the only game he didn't clear 100 receiving yards or score a touchdown, ARSB had nine receptions for 95 yards. Even when he had season-lows for receptions (two) and receiving yards (49) last week, he avoided a complete dud by finding paydirt. St. Brown has a dreamy high-floor and high-ceiling combination, and he's projected as the WR1 in Week 13, tying for the WR6V at DK and sporting the WR1V at FD.
Jahmyr Gibbs is Detroit's most intriguing running back this week because of the matchup. Chicago's opponents have had a 67% pass rate in neutral game scripts since Week 10. Furthermore, the Bears are tied for the fifth-most receptions per game (6.0) and have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game (45.0) to running backs since Week 10.
Gibbs has run 97 routes compared to 39 for David Montgomery in Detroit's previous four contests. The rookie running back had 14 receptions for 107 receiving yards in those games.
The dynamic rookie is also a contributor on the ground. He's averaged 10.3 rush attempts per game and 56.8 rushing yards per game, with three rushing touchdowns in his past four games. Gibbs had 95 scrimmage yards, six receptions and one touchdown when these two clubs squared off in Week 11. DFS gamers would welcome a similar showing this week, and Gibbs has previously showcased an even higher ceiling.
Bears Analysis: Justin Fields's shortcomings as a passer are evident. Still, he has a cushy matchup against a defense he's clowned as a runner. In three games against the Lions since last season, Fields has rushed for 147, 132 and 104 yards and two touchdowns. He sprinkled in 411 passing yards and four passing touchdowns on top in those games.
The Lions also haven't been a matchup that's only favorable for Fields as a runner. Since Week 10, Detroit has permitted quarterbacks the fifth-most DK and FD (21.7) points per game. It's an eruption spot for Fields this week, and he's projected as the QB4, with the QB2V at FD.
Fields has locked onto DJ Moore when he chucks the pigskin. Excluding the start when Fields injured his thumb against the Vikings in Week 6, Moore had a 26.5% target share, 45 receptions (6.4 per game), 741 receiving yards (105.9 per game) and six receiving touchdowns in Fields's seven other starts.
The matchup is tasty for Moore, too. Since Week 10, the Lions have yielded the ninth-most DK (17.9) points per game and the eighth-most FD (15.1) points per game to perimeter wide receivers. They have also coughed up the sixth-most DK (25.3) and FD (21.2) points per game to slots in that period. Moore can barbecue Detroit's secondary, no matter where he aligns.
Chicago's defense is the cheapest punt on the slate. Among quarterbacks with at least 40 dropbacks since Week 10, Jared Goff is tied for the ninth-highest turnover-worthy-play rate (3.8 TWP%). He's also taken six sacks in his last three games. Additionally, Goff threw three interceptions and took two sacks against the Bears in Detroit in Week 11.
Game: Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: CIN -1.5
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Colts Analysis: Michael Pittman is on fire. He's had at least eight receptions in five consecutive contests and reached double-digit receptions and cleared the century mark in back-to-back games. Pittman's 38.3% target share since Week 10 was 2.3% higher than the second-highest mark.
He has a tasty matchup this week. The big-bodied wideout has had a 56.6% slot rate and a 35.4% wide rate this year. Meanwhile, the Bengals have allowed the 13th-most DK (14.0) and FD (11.7) points per game to perimeter wideouts since Week 10. They've also coughed up the seventh-most DK (24.8) and FD (21.0) points per game to slots in that stretch. Additionally, per PFF, the Bengals have played man coverage at the 10th-highest rate this year, and Pittman has had a blistering 29.5% target rate against man coverage.
Zack Moss was a bust last week. Nevertheless, he reprised the bell-cow role he had when Jonathan Taylor was out earlier this season. Moss's 94% snap share in Week 13 was tied for the highest among running backs.
He handled all 20 of Indy's backfield rushing opportunities last week. Moreover, Moss was responsible for 109 of 123 of the backfield's rushing opportunities in the five games he had at least an 80% snap share, rumbling for 495 yards (99.0 per game) and three touchdowns.
Moss also had 10 receptions for 78 yards and a receiving touchdown during those five games. He has a cushy matchup for a bounce-back effort from his dud. Since Week 10, the Bengals have allowed the eighth-most DK (24.1) and the ninth-most FD (22.2) points per game to running backs. Moss is projected as the RB4 at DK, the RB3 at FD and has the RB1V by a wide margin at both outlets.
Bengals Analysis: Zac Taylor hasn't neutered the offense since Jake Browning took over for an injured Joe Burrow. Instead, the Bengals have had a 63% situation-neutral pass rate in Browning's two starts.
Ja'Marr Chase has benefited from Taylor sticking to his pass-happy guns and Browning's surprising competence. In Browning's two starts, Chase had 18 targets, 15 receptions, 230 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. Browning knows where his bread is buttered and force-feeds Chase, keeping the stud wideout in the GPP mix.
Tanner Hudson is the best sub-$3,000 DK and sub-$5,000 FD punt at tight end. His route participation has left something to be desired. Yet, Hudson is a targets-per-route-run whiz. Per PFF, he has had eight targets, eight receptions and 53 receiving yards on 22 routes in Browning's two starts.
Irv Smith had only two targets for eight receiving yards on 22 routes in those contests and could eventually be entirely phased out for Hudson. Even if Hudson doesn't poach playing time from Smith, he can clear the low bar to provide value at his punt salary.
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns
Spread: CLE -3.0
Over/Under: 32.0 Points
Jaguars Analysis: The Jaguars will either start a hobbled Trevor Lawrence or C.J. Beathard at quarterback on the road, and Christian Kirk is out. Jacksonville's tiny implied total is all DFS games need to know. They're not a source of DFS selections.
Browns Analysis: The Browns haven't announced a starting quarterback for this week. Joe Flacco has gotten the first turn in individual drills, though. Elijah Moore would benefit from Flacco starting again this week and would get a further lift if Amari Cooper is ruled out.
Moore had a 29.3% target share and a jaw-dropping 255 air yards last week. Flacco was locked onto his former teammate with the Jets. Moore turned his gaudy underlying data into a rock-solid four receptions and 83 receiving yards. Still, he left meat on the bone.
The third-year pro's matchup this week is drool-inducing. He has had a 62.0% slot rate, and slots have barbecued the Jaguars for the second-most DK (27.6) and FD (23.4) points per game since Week 10.
Cleveland's defense was priced before Kirk and Lawrence were injured on Monday Night Football in Week 13. Thus, they're a steal in what's now a plus matchup. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Browns have tied for the second-highest pressure rate (27.1%) and tallied 34 sacks and 16 turnovers this season. They can tee off on a sitting-duck Lawrence or an overwhelmed Beathard.
Game: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Spread: NO -5.5
Over/Under: 37.5 Points
Panthers Analysis: Carolina's interim head coach didn't pull the rug out from under Jonathan Mingo. The rookie wideout is a mainstay on the field. Since Week 10, he's run the second-most routes (144) on the Panthers.
Without Frank Reich in Week 13, Mingo had team-highs in target share (38.5%), receptions (six), air yards (95) and receiving yards (69). The Panthers' second-round pick in this year's NFL Draft has had at least six targets in four straight games and reached the 60-yard plateau in his past two. Mingo is tied for the WR1V at DK.
Saints Analysis: The Saints' injury report is long. That's a suboptimal starting point for a below-average offense. Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara have the requisite ceilings for GPP consideration. Their salaries are fair, but there are more appealing point-per-dollar options and fellow studs.
Game: Houston Texans at New York Jets
Spread: HOU -3.5
Over/Under: 33.0 Points
Texans Analysis: The Texans must adjust to life without Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz might be out again. Furthermore, the weather forecast is unfavorable for the offenses in this game. It's a bad week to use the Texans in DFS.
Jets Analysis: The Jets are turning back to Zach Wilson. The fact that's the prudent move is all anyone playing DFS needs to know. They'd be an easy team to ignore in DFS in pristine weather conditions, but the wet weather is the cherry on top.
Game: Minnesota Vikings at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: MIN -3.0
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
Vikings Analysis: Minnesota's defense is a fun, sneaky pivot off the likely chalkier Browns. The Vikings are a nightmare defensive matchup for the Raiders. First, the Vikings have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (76) and only 3.9 yards per carry to opponents since Week 10. Second, per Pro-Football-Reference, they've blitzed at the highest rate (47.6%) this year.
Conversely, the Raiders want to lean heavily on Josh Jacobs and the rushing attack. If their running game is stonewalled, Aidan O'Connell will have his hands full. The rookie quarterback is PFF's 32nd-ranked passer out of 38 who've dropped back at least 40 times against the blitz this year. O'Connell is also tied for the 10th-highest turnover-worthy-play rate (4.0 TWP%) against the blitz. As a result, Minnesota's defense is a high-upside GPP pick.
Raiders Analysis: The reasons why Minnesota's defense is appealing in GPPs are why gamers should fade the Raiders in DFS this week.
Game: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: SF -10.5
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
Seahawks Analysis: Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been solid, if unspectacular, lately. In his previous four games, he's had a 17.2% target share and 198 air yards, converting his usage into 4.0 receptions per game and 49.0 receiving yards per game. The Seahawks have a pass-first offense and will likely play from behind. JSN doesn't need a massive target share to haul in a handful of receptions if Geno Smith is forced to chuck it from the opening whistle to the end of the game. The rookie wideout is tied for the WR1V at DK this week.
49ers Analysis: The 49ers drilled the Seahawks on Thanksgiving, hanging 31 points on their NFC West nemesis. San Francisco has the highest implied total on the main slate, supporting another likely explosive showing.
Christian McCaffrey is the most exciting piece of San Francisco's loaded offense. He had 114 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, five receptions and 25 receiving yards against the Seahawks in Week 12. In CMC's last four games, he's averaged 95.0 rushing yards per game, 4.8 receptions per game, 34.3 receiving yards per game and splashed paydirt four times.
McCaffrey should feast again in a mouthwatering matchup. Since Week 10, running backs have scored the second-most DK (30.4) points per game and tied for the second-most FD (27.2) points per game against the Seahawks. As a result, CMC is the RB1 in DFS, with the RB3V at DK and tying for the RB4V at FD.
Kyle Shanahan trusts Brock Purdy. The 49ers have had a 60% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 10. Purdy's been a man on fire since San Francisco's bye in Week 9, returning from the break to complete 74.1% of his passes for 1,152 passing yards, 10.7 yards per attempt, 11 touchdowns and one interception.
He can add to his sterling post-bye numbers in a plus matchup this week if the Seahawks push back more than expected or touchdown variance shines favorably upon him before the game gets out of hand. The Seahawks have allowed the 11th-most DK and FD (18.7) points per game to quarterbacks since Week 10.
Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are enticing GPP picks. According to PFF, the Seahawks have played zone coverage at the second-highest rate this season, and Aiyuk and Samuel have carved up zone coverage this season. The former has had 2.69 Y/RR, and the latter has had 2.78 Y/RR against zone coverage this season.
They should also align in the slot at a high rate, and Seattle's more susceptible in slot defense than on the perimeter. Aiyuk and Samuel have had 67.1% and 67.9% slot rates this season. Additionally, San Francisco ramped their slot rates up to 89.7% and 77.6% in the first meeting against the Seahawks. Slot wide receivers have torched the Seahawks for the third-most DK (27.0) points per game and the fourth-most FD (23.0) points per game since Week 10.
Aiyuk and Samuel are both high-upside selections and can be double-stacked with Purdy. However, Samuel is slightly more appealing than Aiyuk for gamers who choose only one as a standalone option or as a single-stacking partner with Purdy. Samuel has had more success against the Seahawks than Aiyuk since last season. The projections also prefer Samuel to Aiyuk. The former is the WR8 in DFS, with the WR9V at DK and the WR2V at FD. The latter is the WR10 in DFS this week.
George Kittle is projected as the TE4, with the TE5V at FD. He's an intriguing GPP pick. Kittle has had 24 targets, 18 receptions (4.5 per game), 292 receiving yards (73.0 per game) and two touchdowns since San Francisco's bye. He's been a boom-or-bust player this season, but his volatility is acceptable for GPPs since his ceiling is all that matters.
Game: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -1.5
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Bills Analysis: The Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey after a loss to the Broncos in Week 11, replacing him with Joe Brady. In two games with Brady calling plays, the Bills scored 32 points against the Jets and 34 against the Eagles. Brady had last week to dig deeper into his bag while putting his fingerprints on the offense.
Buffalo will need their offense to carry them, starting at the top with Josh Allen. In two games with Brady as the play-caller, Allen has passed for 614 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. He also ran for 96 yards and two touchdowns. According to The 33rd Team, Allen had precisely three designed runs in each of the last two games, matching his previous season-high.
The matchup isn't too shabby for Allen against the Chiefs. Kansas City has allowed quarterbacks the 10th-most DK and FD (19.2) points per game since Week 10. Buffalo's dual-threat quarterback is the QB1 in DFS in Week 13, with the QB3V at FD.
Stefon Diggs is Buffalo's No. 1 pass-catching weapon. Yet, after a fast start, reaching at least 100 receiving yards in five of his first six games, Diggs has cleared 85 receiving yards only once. Still, he had 11 targets, six receptions, 74 receiving yards and a touchdown in his last game.
He could also have a plus matchup this week. Diggs's slot rate is 40.1% this season, but Buffalo's ramped it as high as 62.1% in a game. Kansas City's a mid-pack matchup for perimeter wideouts but coughed up the fourth-most DK (26.8) points per game and the fifth-most FD (21.8) points per game to slots since Week 10.
Dawson Knox has fully practiced this week and should return from the IR against the Chiefs, muddying the waters for Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid. Will the Bills return to a 12-personnel base offense? Could Knox steal routes from Kincaid? Either outcome would damage the DFS value for Shakir or Kincaid.
Buffalo's offense has played markedly better since involving Shakir and Kincaid more, and Brady might not fix what's not broken. Instead of drastically altering the offense, Brady might sprinkle in Knox.
In GPPs, leaning into the most favorable playing time outcomes for Shakir and Kincaid could pay off. Shakir has had a 55.4% slot rate this year, giving him access to Kansas City's struggles against slots. In Buffalo's last four games, Shakir was fourth on the team in routes (124), fifth in targets (15), fourth in receptions (11), first in receiving yards (243) and had a touchdown reception.
The second-year pro was also third on the team in routes (72) in Brady's two games as the offensive coordinator. He had nine targets, six receptions, 162 receiving yards and one touchdown in those games. Shakir's floor is low, but he's an intriguing value option in a potential shootout. Shakir has the WR10V at DK.
Kincaid has had 31 targets, 26 receptions (6.5 per game), 216 receiving yards (54.0 per game) and one touchdown in his last four games. The rookie tight end has had 5.5 receptions per game and 42.0 receiving yards per game in two games when Brady called plays. Kincaid is projected as the TE5 and tied for the TE3V at FD.
Brady has mixed Ty Johnson into Buffalo's backfield. Yet, Johnson's inclusion has come mainly at Latavius Murray's expense, leaving James Cook atop the backfield's depth chart. In the last two games, Cook has handled 56.9% of the backfield's rushing workload, carrying the ball 33 times for 116 scoreless yards.
Cook can thrive as a runner in a cushy matchup against Kansas City's Charmin-soft run defense. Running backs have gashed the Chiefs for the third-most yards per carry (5.3) since Week 10.
The second-year running back has also flashed his receiving chops lately. In Buffalo's final two contests before their bye, he was targeted on 11 of his 31 routes (35.5%) and had nine receptions for 86 yards and a touchdown. Cook might be an overlooked piece of this popular game stack, enhancing the appeal of using him in GPPs.
Chiefs Analysis: The Chiefs are favored at home, and their offense is top-heavy. Travis Kelce hasn't had his typical eruptions this season. Still, he had one truly dominant effort, flaming the Chargers for 12 receptions, 179 receiving yards and one touchdown, showcasing a blow-up is still within his range of outcomes. Kelce's ceiling is worth mixing into GPP portfolios this week as the slate's TE1, with the TE2V at FD.
The Chiefs have wisely used rookie Rashee Rice more often since their bye. In three subsequent contests, Rice was third on the team in routes (79), first in targets (24), first in receptions (20), second in receiving yards (213) and had one touchdown reception. Rice is tied for the WR6V at DK.
Isiah Pacheco hasn't practiced through Thursday because of a shoulder contusion. Jerick McKinnon was included on the table as an option if Pacheco's shoulder injury sidelines him this week. McKinnon would be a useful punt without Pacheco in the fold.
Assuming Pacheco's absences were maintenance-related and he suits up, the second-year pro is an exciting DFS pick. Buffalo's opponents have had a 49% situation-neutral rush rate since Week 10. Kansas City is unlikely to match that rate, but the Chiefs could take some work off Patrick Mahomes's plate.
Pacheco has had at least 17 opportunities (rushes plus targets) in four straight games and nine of his last 10. In his previous three games, he's had 123, 89 and 91 scrimmage yards and scored three touchdowns. Pacheco has benefited from McKinnon's absence in the last two weeks. Still, Pacheco has averaged 82.3 scrimmage yards per game, 2.8 receptions per game and scored seven touchdowns this season. Pacheco is the RB6 at DK and the RB4 at FD, with the RB6V at the former and the RB2V at the latter.
Game: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: LAC -2.5
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Broncos Analysis: Denver's low play volume is a nightmare for their DFS utility. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Broncos have run the fewest offensive plays (697) this season. They don't make up for it with efficiency, either. Even against the Chargers' pathetic defense, the Broncos aren't appealing to invest in.
Chargers Analysis: Los Angeles's offense is broken. They scored only six points against the Patriots in New England last week. The weather was lousy, but it doesn't entirely absolve the Chargers of their offensive futility. Moreover, since exploding for a season-high 38 points in Week 10, their scoring has dipped to 20, 10 and six points in the following three games. Unfortunately, the Chargers can't be trusted right now.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
