A Monday Night Football doubleheader slams the door on Week 14. The spreads are large for both games, and the favorites are predictably the most well-represented by valuable DFS picks. Still, the underdogs also have viable options.
Game: Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
Spread: MIA -13.0
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
Titans Analysis: The Titans will almost certainly be in a negative game script, possibly early. When they inevitably fall behind, DeAndre Hopkins will be busy as Tennessee's runaway top dog in the passing-game hierarchy. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he's led the team in routes (113), targets (31), receptions (15), receiving yards (210) and receiving touchdowns (two) since Week 10. To add context to his dominant standing in Tennessee's passing attack, his team-high 31 targets in those games were equal to the second and third-most targets combined, and no one else on the Titans caught a touchdown pass.
Chigoziem Okonkwo was second on the club in targets (17), tied for second in receptions (11) and second in receiving yards (140) for Tennessee since Week 10. Tyjae Spears can also be a weapon in the passing attack. In the previous four weeks, he's run 63 routes versus only 36 for Derrick Henry.
In that four-game stretch, Spears had 14 targets, 11 receptions and 68 receiving yards. The rookie running back also chipped in 27 rush attempts for 112 yards. Spears would benefit from a negative game script. Nevertheless, he can also score DFS points as a change-of-pace runner.
Dolphins Analysis: The Dolphins have the highest implied total on this two-game slate. Many of their players can help DFS squads, starting with the triggerman. Tua Tagovailoa is PFF's fifth-highest-graded passer among quarterbacks who've dropped back at least 40 times since Week 10. The lefty passed for 848 yards (282.7 per game) but had only five touchdown passes in those contests. The touchdown variance wasn't on his side, but could flip in this matchup.
The matchup is sweet for Tagovailoa. According to The 33rd Team, the Titans have ceded the ninth-most DraftKings and FanDuel (19.5) points per game to quarterbacks since Week 10. Therefore, Tagovailoa is projected to be the highest-scoring quarterback on this slate.
Tyreek Hill, Tua's top weapon, is projected to be the highest overall scorer on this slate. Hill is on pace to be the NFL's first 2,000-yard receiver. Moreover, instead of slowing down, he's mashing down the accelerator. In three games since Miami's bye, he's reached the century mark and scored at least one touchdown in each contest, averaging 8.0 receptions per game and 135.0 receiving yards per game with four touchdowns in those games. He's a no-brainer pick on this slate.
Jaylen Waddle is only an intriguing choice for gamers entering multiple lineups in GPPs. Miami's speedy No. 2 wideout has sandwiched a 55-yard and a 52-yard effort around a blow-up game for eight receptions and 114 receiving yards in Week 12. Waddle's likeliest path to DFS value is the Titans making a few explosive plays and forcing the Dolphins to keep their foot on the accelerator. Thus, double-stacking Hill and Waddle with Tagovailoa and a Spears bring-back is appealing.
Miami's projected to boat race the Titans, setting the stage for Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane to feast against a Jeffery Simmons-less defense. Gamers can ignore Tennessee's stats against the run. Removing Simmons from the middle of their defensive line will be problematic for their ability to slow down speedsters Mostert and Achane.
In four games (Week 3, Week 4, Week 5 and Week 13) when Achane was largely healthy, he had 54 rush attempts for 528 yards and seven rushing touchdowns compared to 41, 199 and five for Mostert. The rookie also ran more routes (70 versus 60) than his veteran teammate. Nevertheless, Achane had 13 targets, 11 receptions, 93 receiving yards and two touchdowns in those four games, and Mostert had 14, 13, 117 and one. Achane is slightly more appealing than Mostert, but there's enough meat on the bone for both to succeed.
Miami's defense can pin their ears back and get after Will Levis if the game's betting spread comes to fruition. According to PFF, Levis has had the ninth-highest pressure-to-sack rate (24.1 P2S%) among quarterbacks who've dropped back at least 40 times since Week 10. Levis also had five turnover-worthy plays in those games. The Dolphins can pile up sacks and turnovers if Levis is forced into predictable passing situations.
Game: Green Bay Packers at New York Giants
Spread: GB -6.5
Over/Under: 37.0 Points
Packers Analysis: Development isn't always linear for young quarterbacks. However, Jordan Love is getting progressively better in his first year as a starter. Since Week 10, he's been PFF's fourth-ranked passer and was second in big-time-throw rate (8.5 BTT%), fourth in passing yards (1,145, 286.3 per game) and third in passing touchdowns (13).
Love can stay white-hot in a mouthwatering matchup. The Giants have allowed the sixth-most DK and FD points per game (21.5) to quarterbacks since Week 10 despite facing Bailey Zappe in one of the three games in that period.
Jayden Reed is Green Bay's top passing-game weapon this week. The rookie wideout has had 17 receptions for 180 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 22 targets in his last four games. In addition, Reed had five rush attempts for 62 yards and a touchdown.
Dontayvion Wicks can also have success against Big Blue's unimposing secondary. He should have an enhanced role since Christian Watson is out. In his last three games, he's been targeted on 25.5% of his 51 routes, amassing nine receptions for 184 receiving yards.
Both Reed and Wicks are better matchup fits than Romeo Doubs. According to PFF, the Giants have played man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL this season. Doubs has had a 10.8% target rate and tallied only 0.33 Y/RR against man coverage this season compared to 25.6% and 1.21 Y/RR for Wicks and 25.9% and 1.41 Y/RR for Reed.
Tucker Kraft hasn't lit the world on fire. Yet, his 58 routes since Luke Musgrave was placed on injured reserve (IR) were 47 more than Ben Sims ran, the only other tight end to run routes for the Packers in those games. Kraft has had five receptions for 52 yards and a touchdown in his past two games. The rookie tight end is the most appealing tight end on a slate lacking viable options at the position.
If the Packers can stake their defense to a lead, Green Bay can get after sack-prone Tommy DeVito. The rookie undrafted free agent has had a 52.6 P2S% since Week 10, 15.1% higher than the second-highest mark. He's taken 20 sacks in his last three games.
Giants Analysis: Saquon Barkley should find running room as long as the game is close enough for the G-Men to feed him. Running backs have averaged 125.3 rushing yards per game at 5.4 yards per carry against the Packers in Green Bay's last four games. Running backs also punched in four rushing touchdowns in those games.
Barkley is a workhorse. He's had at least 15 opportunities (rushes plus targets) in all nine games he's played this season, parlaying his workload into 77.4 rushing yards per game, one rushing touchdown, 3.1 receptions per game, 18.7 receiving yards per game and four receiving touchdowns. Even if the G-Men are in a hole early, Barkley can help DFS gamers by catching passes and scoring fantasy points as a receiver.
Jalin Hyatt has run the fourth-most routes (61) on the Giants in their last three games. The rookie speedster has been quiet more often than not in his first professional campaign. However, he's reached at least 75 receiving yards three times, including exploding for season-highs in targets (six), receptions (five) and receiving yards (109) in his last game before the club's bye.
The Giants should prioritize getting their rookie wideout reps and opportunities in a lost season. While assuming rationale coaching can burn DFS gamers, Big Blue was giving Hyatt meaningful playing time before the bye. He has the requisite big-play ability to help DFS squads on as little as one reception.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
