There’s only one island game before Sunday’s main slate. However, since there are six teams on their bye in Week 13, the main slate has 10 games. Two games are the most exciting to stack. Yet, there are intriguing one-offs and skinny stacking choices elsewhere on the 10-game slate.
Week 13 Matchups
Game: Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
Spread: LAC -5.5
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
Chargers Analysis: Keenan Allen hasn’t practiced through Thursday due to a quad injury. His absence would ruin Los Angeles’s offense. Trusting Allen to perform up to his top-shelf level is also tough since he’s tending to an injury. Thus, gamers can fade the Chargers in a road tilt in New England.
Patriots Analysis: DeVante Parker returned in Week 12 from a multi-week absence and immediately claimed a prominent role in the passing attack. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Parker ran the most routes (30) for the Patriots in Week 12, seven more than the second most. The veteran wide receiver had three receptions for 42 receiving yards and demonstrated chemistry last season with the expected starting quarterback, Bailey Zappe. Parker caught a 25-yard touchdown from Zappe against the Packers last year and had a 22.7% target share, three receptions and 68 receiving yards on Zappe's 22 pass attempts against the Bears in 2022.
Game: Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
Spread: DET -4.0
Over/Under: 47.0 Points
Lions Analysis: Jameson Williams has taken hold of Detroit's No. 3 wideout gig, running the third-most routes (74) among Lions' wide receivers in their past three games, comfortably ahead of Kalif Raymond's 40 routes. The second-year speedster has secured precisely two receptions in back-to-back games, clearing 40 receiving yards in each and hauling in a touchdown in Week 11.
Williams is primarily used as a vertical threat. Per PFF, he's had four targets behind the line of scrimmage, five short (zero to nine yards), seven medium (10 to 19 yards) and seven deep (20-plus yards) this season. The floor is low for the sophomore wideout. Fortunately, he's catching the Saints at a good time. New Orleans placed cornerback Marshon Lattimore on injured reserve (IR) before last week's game and allowed Desmond Ridder to complete two of three passes that traveled 20-plus yards for 51 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Williams can pay off his punt salary on one deep reception this week.
Saints Analysis: Taysom Hill is a high-upside selection in a theoretically favorable spot. The Saints' receiving corps is banged up, and teams have chosen to attack the Lions on the ground. According to RotoViz's pace app, Detroit's opponents have tied for the fifth-highest rush rate (49%) in neutral game scripts since Week 9.
Hill's a versatile player, utilized as a battering ram, a pass-catcher and an occasional passer. In New Orlean's last four games, Hill has toted the rock 27 times for 147 yards and two touchdowns. He stuffed the stat sheet last week, rushing seven times for 26 yards and securing two receptions for 55 receiving yards.
Juwan Johnson is the most desirable punt at tight end this week. The converted wide receiver ran the most routes (34) for the Saints last week. Johnson had seven targets, four receptions and 45 receiving yards in his enhanced role in Week 12.
The Saints are home underdogs. Nevertheless, their defense is a useful punt against the struggling Jared Goff. The veteran quarterback has had six turnover-worthy plays in his previous three contests. The New Orleans DST is also a correlated stacking option with Hill. All three times Hill had over 50 rushing yards this season were in victories.
Game: Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets
Spread: ATL -2.5
Over/Under: 34.0 Points
Falcons Analysis: Bijan Robinson was superb after Atlanta's bye in Week 11, erupting for 91 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, three receptions, 32 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown against the Saints. He had an adequate 47.1% of Atlanta's backfield's rush share but made up for that mark by running 14 routes versus five for Atlanta's other running backs.
Additionally, Robinson's rush share is part of a large pie. The Falcons had an eye-popping 67% rush share when in a neutral game script last week. They've had a 53% rush share in neutral game scripts in their previous four games.
The matchup is a cherry on top for Robinson. According to The 33rd Team, the Jets have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings (27.4) points per game and the fourth-most FanDuel (25.5) points per game to running backs since Week 9.
Atlanta's defense is the next fortunate unit to face non-NFL caliber quarterback Tim Boyle. Gang Green's offense is a joke, and Boyle took seven sacks and threw two interceptions last week. He's thrown just four touchdowns and 11 interceptions in his NFL career after throwing one and 13 in 19 games at UCONN.
Jets Analysis: Boyle has no business starting an NFL game and was pathetic in his start on Black Friday. New York's players aren't DFS relevant this week.
Game: Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: PIT -5.5
Over/Under: 41.0 Points
Cardinals Analysis: Arizona's pass-catching corps is ravaged by injuries. Marquise Brown (heel) and Michael Wilson (shoulder) haven't practiced this week, and Trey McBride was upgraded from sitting out Wednesday's practice to limited on Thursday with a groin issue. Greg Dortch is an appealing punt this week as long as one of Arizona's injured wide receivers is ruled out.
In the previous two weeks, Dortch was tied for the third-most routes (70) on the Cardinals, parlaying his route participation into 16 targets, nine receptions, 103 receiving yards and one touchdown reception. He should be busy against Pittsburgh's pass-funnel defense. The Steelers have faced the third-highest pass rate (65%) in neutral game scripts since Week 9.
Steelers Analysis: Jaylen Warren has been dynamite. He's led running backs in rushing yards (367) since Week 9, rumbling for 7.6 yards per carry, 4.6 yards before contact per attempt (YBCON/ATT), 3.0 yards after contact per attempt (YACON/ATT) and 12 broken tackles.
In Pittsburgh's first game after firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers ran on 48% of their 64 plays when in a neutral game script. Warren had 13 rush attempts compared to 15 for Najee Harris.
The second-year running back has a superb matchup this week. The Cardinals are tied for the second-highest rush rate (50%) faced in neutral game scripts since Week 9. They haven't had answers for running backs during that stretch, allowing them the second-most DK (31.0) points per game and the second-most FD (28.7) points per game. Warren is a value at both outlets, with the RB2 value score (RB2V) at DK and tying for the RB3V at FD.
Game: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Spread: IND -1.0
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Colts Analysis: Zack Moss is the next person up after Jonathan Taylor's thumb surgery earlier this week. He answered the call earlier this season. When Moss had over 10 touches per game from Week 2 through Week 8, he had an NFL-high 589 rushing yards, 4.7 yards per carry, 2.8 YBCON/ATT, 1.9 YACON/ATT, five rushing touchdowns, 20 targets, 16 receptions, 123 receiving yards and one touchdown reception.
Moss can return to his bell-cow form in a plus matchup this week. He smashed the Titans for 165 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, two receptions and 30 receiving yards in Week 5. The Titans were a pass-funnel earlier this season but have faced a 46% rush rate in neutral game scripts since Week 9, tied for the ninth-highest mark. Running backs have accumulated the ninth-most DK (22.5) points per game and the ninth-most FD (20.3) points per game against running backs since Week 9. Moss is a screaming value, owning the RB1V at both DFS providers, comfortably ahead of his peers.
Josh Downs is an intriguing GPP pivot from Moss. According to The 33rd Team, the rookie wideout has a 78.2% slot rate this season. Meanwhile, the Titans have allowed the ninth-most DK (21.5) points per game and the eighth-most FD (17.9) points per game to slots since Week 9. Downs was efficient and productive against the Titans in Week 5, corraling all six of his targets for 97 yards.
Indy's defense is a stacking choice with Moss or a useful standalone pick against a struggling rookie quarterback. Will Levis is PFF's 32nd-ranked passer and has the third-highest turnover-worthy-play rate (5.5 TWP%) among 36 quarterbacks with at least 40 dropbacks since Week 9.
Titans Analysis: Tennessee's DST is a reasonable GPP punt since they'll likely be on a small percentage of rosters since Moss will be uber-chalky. Gardner Minshew is PFF's 27th-ranked passer since Week 9. Minshew has thrown at least one interception in five of his past six games.
Game: Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders
Spread: MIA -9.5
Over/Under: 49.5 Points
Dolphins Analysis: The Dolphins are the marquee side of one of the two most exciting games to stack in Week 13. Miami has had a 55% pass rate and 45% rush rate in neutral game scripts since returning from their bye in Week 10. Yet, they could take to the air more often when it's close against Washington's pitiful pass defense.
The Commanders have faced an NFL-high 69% pass rate in neutral game scripts since Week 9 and allowed the fifth-most DK (22.7) points per game and the fifth-most FD (22.7) points per game to quarterbacks during that stretch.
Tua Tagovailoa can cut through them like a hot knife through butter. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he's third in passing yards per game (288.8), second in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (7.79 ANY/A) and third in passing touchdowns (22) this season. The lefty is projected as the QB2 in DFS this week.
Tyreek Hill is the alpha in Miami's passing attack and leads the NFL in receiving yards per game (120.4) and touchdown receptions (10). The speedster hasn't slowed down out of Miami's bye, either. Since Week 11, he's had a 35.9% target share, 165 air yards, 19 receptions, 248 receiving yards and two touchdown receptions. He's the WR1 in DFS in Week 13, with the WR1V by a wide margin at both outlets.
The matchup is good enough for Jaylen Waddle to help DFS squads as well. The Commanders have allowed the third-most DK (20.7) points per game and the third-most FD (17.0) points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 9. Washington has also allowed the 10th-most DK (21.2) points per game and the ninth-most FD (17.7) points per game to slots in that stretch.
Waddle will have access to Washington's burnable secondary inside and outside. The third-year pro has a 58.5% slot rate and a 39.9% wide rate this season. Waddle has also exploded out of Miami's bye, tallying a 25.0% target share, 170 air yards, 12 receptions and 169 receiving yards in his two most recent games. And, as always, he has a contingent upside if Hill is injured and leaves the game early.
The Dolphins can also impose their will on the ground against Washington's defense. Miami's backfield this week is a mystery. De'Von Achane was limited in practice this week after missing last week's game following a string of limited practices. Jeff Wilson is a reasonable punt if Achane is out, despite not being listed on the table.
Still, assuming Achane can suit up this week, Raheem Mostert is the top pick in Miami's backfield, and the returning rookie is a boom-or-bust tournament option. From Week 3 through Week 5, Achane had 37 rush attempts, 455 rushing yards, 12.3 yards per carry, 7.2 YBCON/ATT, 5.1 YACON/ATT, five broken tackles and five rushing touchdowns compared to 30, 156, 5.2, 2.2, 3.0, one and four for Mostert.
The rookie also ran more routes (54 versus 51) than Mostert. Yet, Achane's nine targets, eight receptions and 63 receiving yards were fewer than Mostert's 13, 12 and 109. They each found paydirt, though. Achane had two receiving touchdowns, and Mostert had one.
Mostert had 22 and 20 rush attempts in his last two games, piling up 180 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns and one seven-yard reception. The veteran running back should be viewed as the favorite to top Miami's backfield in opportunities. Nevertheless, last week's DFS-slate-breaking performance from a returning running back should have reminded gamers of the value of taking a chance on a supremely talented player in their first game back from an injury while risk-averse gamers wait to see a healthy game first. Obviously, Achane's early-season play was unsustainable. Still, he had four 40-plus-yard rushes, illustrating his ability to make a house call from anywhere on the gridiron.
The matchup is mouthwatering for Miami's speedy backfield. The Commanders have coughed up the third-most DK (30.2) points per game and the third-most FD (27.3) points per game to running backs since Week 9, getting gashed for 5.2 yards per carry. Mostert and Achane are also stacking options with Tagovailoa since Washington's allowed running backs 5.8 receptions per game, 58.8 receiving yards per game and four receiving touchdowns in their previous four games.
Commanders Analysis: Offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has brought a pass-happy offense called by Andy Reid in Kansas City to Washington in his first crack at calling plays. Since Week 9, the Commanders have had the second-highest pass rate (67%) in neutral game scripts. Conveniently for Washington's passing-game options, the Dolphins are tied for facing the fourth-highest pass rate (64%) in neutral game scripts since Week 9.
Sam Howell has had ups and downs in his second season. Yet, he's made the most of his high volume of work, ranking fifth in passing yards per game (278.3) and tied for 10th in passing touchdowns (18). Howell is also a capable runner, punching in a touchdown on the ground in back-to-back games and reaching double-digit rushing yards in 11 of 12 games this season.
Howell hasn't locked onto a single favorite passing-game weapon. Therefore, Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas have each popped up for stellar performances while disappearing in other contests.
McLaurin is justifiably the highest-salaried option from the quartet. Since Week 10, he's led the Commanders in routes (130), targets (26) and receptions (13) and was second in receiving yards (126). Dotson ran the second-most routes (129) but had an underwhelming 75 receiving yards on eight receptions in those three games, salvaging his output with a receiving touchdown.
Still, Dotson has scored a touchdown in three of his last five games. The second-year pro had his best game in 2023 in Week 8, posting eight receptions, 108 receiving yards and one touchdown. He's had at least three receptions and over 50 receiving yards in three of his last five games.
Samuel is coming off the best game in Washington's receiving corps. He had 12 targets, nine receptions and 100 receiving yards against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Samuel should have the most chances against Miami's slot defense, too. He's had a 75.8% slot rate this season. Miami's stymied perimeter wideouts. However, they're an above-average matchup for slots, allowing them the seventh-most DK (22.2) points per game and the seventh-most FD (18.2) points per game since Week 9. While Samuel will have the most chances from the slot, McLaurin and Dotson will also have opportunities, with slot rates of 31.2% and 54.9%, respectively.
Thomas has run the third-most routes (114) on the Commanders since Week 10 and had 17 targets, 12 receptions and 113 receiving yards. The veteran tight end had a dud in Week 12. Nonetheless, he had at least four receptions and 31 receiving yards in the five games before his stinker, reaching at least 40 in four contests. Thomas is a stellar value pick, with the TE2V at DK and the TE7V at FD.
Game: Denver Broncos at Houston Texans
Spread: HOU -3.5
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Broncos Analysis: The Broncos are victims of more appealing DFS options at salaries near their most fantasy-relevant players.
Texans Analysis: C.J. Stroud is playing like a superstar in his rookie season. Sadly, he has a brutal matchup against Denver's stingy pass defense this week, making him and Houston's pass-catchers unappealing DFS choices at their high salaries.
Instead, Devin Singletary is a sweet GPP pick against Denver's leaky run defense. The Broncos have coughed up 140.0 rushing yards per carry at 6.4 yards per carry to running backs in their last three games. Singletary held onto Houston's lead-back duties when Dameon Pierce returned last week. In Week 12, Motor had six carries for 18 scoreless yards versus five for 14 for Pierce.
More importantly, Singletary ran 34 routes and had seven targets, six receptions and 54 receiving yards compared to five, one, one and four for Pierce. Singletary can steamroll the Broncos if he gets half of the backfield's rushing attempts and nearly all of the passing-game chances.
Game: Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: TB -5.5
Over/Under: 37.0 Points
Panthers Analysis: Jonathan Mingo has struggled to make an impact this season but had four receptions for 60 yards last week. Furthermore, Mingo has a drool-inducing matchup this week.
The 40th selection in this year's NFL Draft has had a 50.7% slot rate this season, and slots have smashed the Buccaneers. Since Week 9, Tampa Bay has been barbecued for the most DK (30.6) points per game and the second-most FD (26.3) points per game by slot wide receivers.
Mingo was added to the injury report on Thursday with an Achilles injury. He's a viable matchup-driven punt if the injury doesn't sideline him this week.
The Panthers have the cheapest playable DST at both DFS providers this week. Baker Mayfield has had six turnover-worthy plays and taken 15 sacks in his previous four games.
Buccaneers Analysis: Spending significant cap space on defenses in DFS is unpopular because they're volatile. Regardless, Tampa Bay's DST has GPP merit against Bryce Young and Carolina's dumpster-fire offense. Young is PFF's lowest-graded passer since Week 9 and had seven turnover-worthy plays.
According to PFF, Young is also tied for the fifth-highest pressure-to-sack rate (25.5 P2S%) among quarterbacks with at least 40 dropbacks against the blitz this season. This week, the rookie's inability to avoid sacks against the blitz will be a problem. Per Pro-Football-Reference, the Bucs have the third-highest blitz rate (37.8%) this season.
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: SF -3.0
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
49ers Analysis: San Francisco's offense is a juggernaut. The 49ers have scored at least 30 points in seven of 11 contests and scored 34, 27 and 31 points since their bye in Week 9. The high-octane offense has a few elite weapons, but Christian McCaffrey is the top weapon as a game-script-proof do-it-all stud.
CMC is averaging 120.7 scrimmage yards per game and 4.4 receptions per game with 16 touchdowns this season. He's exceeded 100 scrimmage yards in his past four games, accomplishing the feat eight times this year. McCaffrey has also had at least one touchdown in 10 of 11 games this season, reaching paydirt multiple times in four contests. He's the RB1 in DFS, tied for the RB4V at DK and has the RB2V at FD this week.
Brock Purdy and the passing attack can also shine this week. First, the 49ers have had a 58% pass rate in neutral game scripts since Week 9. Second, Philadelphia's defense has faced a 61% pass rate in neutral game scripts since Week 9. The Eagles have also struggled against quarterbacks, coughing up the most DK (29.0) points per game and the most FD (29.0) points per game to signal-callers since Week 9.
Purdy has faced questions about the legitimacy of his passing numbers, but it doesn't matter how much credit he deserves and how much head coach Kyle Shanahan should receive. The 2022 NFL Draft's Mr. Irrelevant is first in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (8.75 ANY/A), ninth in passing yards per game (261.0) and tied for seventh in passing touchdowns (19) this season.
The sophomore quarterback has been white-hot since the club's bye. Since Week 10, Purdy has been PFF's third-ranked passer and has passed for 838 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception. He's projected as the QB4, has the QB1V at DK and is tied for the QB3V at FD.
Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel have a tasty matchup this week. The former has had a 67.3% slot rate, and the latter has had a 68.4% slot rate this season. The Eagles have been flamed by slots for the third-most DK (29.4) points per game and the third-most FD (24.9) points per game since Week 9. It's also a slightly above-average matchup for Aiyuk and Samuel when they're bumped out to the perimeter.
According to PFF, the Eagles have played league-average man and zone coverage rates this season. Aiyuk is San Francisco's best wideout at beating both coverages. In addition, he's had 10 receptions, 261 receiving yards and three touchdown receptions since the bye.
Samuel is much better against zone than against man coverage, and Philadelphia's zone coverage is much less effective than their man coverage. Samuel is also in good form, posting 14 receptions, 172 receiving yards, eight rush attempts, 43 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns in three games since San Francisco's bye.
George Kittle is another tantalizing piece of this stacking-friendly contest. He's had 14 receptions, 224 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns in his past three games. The 30-year-old tight end has epitomized a boom-or-bust player this season, failing to exceed 20 receiving yards four times. However, Kittle also had three receptions for 67 receiving yards and three touchdowns (3-67-3) in Week 5, 9-149-0 in Week 8, 3-116-1 in Week 10 and 8-89-1 in Week 11.
Kittle has a top-10 matchup this week. The Eagles have yielded the seventh-most DK (15.8) and the seventh-most FD (12.4) points per game to tight ends since Week 9. Thus, Kittle is the TE1 at both DFS providers, with the TE2V at FD
Eagles Analysis: Jalen Hurts is the focal point of Philadelphia's offense, putting together an MVP-caliber campaign. The dual-threat quarterback had five touchdowns last week, pushing his season total to 29 (18 passing and 11 rushing).
Philadelphia's unstoppable "Brotherly Shove" has helped Hurts score at least one rushing touchdown in eight of 11 games, scoring twice in three games. He's also passed for at least one touchdown 10 times and multiple touchdowns five times.
Hurts's consistency is remarkable. He's also averaging 245.2 passing yards per game and 37.3 rushing yards per game. Hurts is a matchup-proof DFS darling, projecting as the QB1 in DFS this week, tying for the QB1V at FD.
Dallas Goedert hasn't practiced this week. Therefore, he's a longshot to suit up, leaving the passing game to funnel almost entirely through A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Brown's in a funk by his standard, failing to clear 70 receiving yards in three straight games and hauling in only six receptions for 45 yards and one touchdown in the previous two weeks.
The stud wideout had over 125 receiving yards in five consecutive games in Week 3 through Week 8, averaging 8.0 receptions per game and 140.0 receiving yards per game with five touchdowns during his heater. The sky's the limit for Brown's ceiling.
Smith is in better form than his running mate lately, topping the Eagles in targets (16), receptions (13) and receiving yards (205) since their bye in Week 10. He also had a receiving touchdown. The Slim Reaper has stepped his game up without Goedert. In seven games without Goedert since last year, Smith has had 56 targets, 38 receptions (5.4 per game), 625 receiving yards (89.3 per game) and three touchdowns.
Brown and Smith are also positioned for success against the 49ers. Both have played more snaps aligned on the perimeter than in the slot this season, and the 49ers have allowed the 11th-most DK (14.0) points per game and the 12th-most FD (11.0) points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 9.
Game: Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: LAR -3.5
Over/Under: 40.0 Points
Browns Analysis: Does Joe Flacco have anything left in the tank? He'll start for the Browns if Dorian Thompson-Robinson doesn't clear the NFL's concussion protocol. If Flacco isn't entirely washed up, he could rekindle his chemistry with Elijah Moore. The duo played together for the Jets, and as Scott Barrett from FantasyPoints illustrated on X, formerly known as Twitter, Moore was markedly better with Flacco than with anyone else at quarterback.
Moore is an interesting speculative punt, albeit with a low floor, like any wide receiver in his salary range.
Rams Analysis: Kyren Williams was a monster in his return from IR last week. The second-year pro had 16 rush attempts for 143 yards and six targets, six receptions, 61 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns in Week 12. He fits LA's offense perfectly this year and has been awarded a bell-cow role.
Williams should have a good game script in a decent matchup this week. The Browns are tied for the second-highest rush rate (50%) against them in neutral game scripts since Week 9. During that period, Cleveland allowed 90.8 rushing yards per game, 4.8 yards per carry, four rushing touchdowns, 3.0 receptions per game and 18.8 receiving yards per game to running backs. Williams is projected as the RB4 at both providers this week.
The Rams can have a stellar showing against old-man Flacco. Los Angeles is a home favorite this week against a lousy offense and has the DST1V at FD.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
