The fantasy football finals are here! (In most leagues.) If you don’t already have a Defense lined up, or aren’t sure which one to start, this is the article for you. If you’re in a league with finals in Week 18, (a) I’m sorry, and (b) stick around to the end and I’ll break down some defenses that I think will be viable next week. Let’s get to it!
Week 17 D/ST Projections
If you’re in the fantasy playoffs, hopefully you already have a defense or two and these rankings are just for the start/sit decision. But if you do need to add a defense, it shouldn’t be too bad with only one other team to compete with and four of my top ten defenses available in over 50% of leagues. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter.
| Rank | Team | Vs. | Vs. QB | PA | Sacks | Turnovers | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||
| 1 | CLE | NYJ | Zach Wilson | 14.75 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 8.48 | 84% |
| 2 | JAC | CAR | Bryce Young | 15.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 8.14 | 41% |
| 3 | SF | @WAS | Sam Howell | 17.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 7.85 | 97% |
| 4 | BUF | NE | Bailey Zappe | 14.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 7.84 | 93% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||
| 5 | DEN | LAC | Easton Stick | 16.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 7.40 | 83% |
| 6 | LAR | @NYG | Tommy DeVito | 17.75 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 7.31 | 20% |
| 7 | HOU | TEN | Will Levis | 19.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 7.02 | 39% |
| 8 | KC | CIN | Jake Browning | 19 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 6.86 | 90% |
| 9 | CHI | ATL | Taylor Heinicke | 17.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 6.70 | 33% |
| 10 | PHI | ARI | Kyler Murray | 19 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 6.57 | 90% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||
| 11 | ATL | @CHI | Justin Fields | 20.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 5.50 | 33% |
| 12 | LAC | @DEN | Russell Wilson | 22 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 6.41 | 22% |
| 13 | IND | LV | Aidan O’Connell | 20.75 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 6.35 | 49% |
| 14 | PIT | @SEA | Geno Smith | 22.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 6.00 | 69% |
| 15 | TB | NO | Derek Carr | 19.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 5.86 | 35% |
| 16 | SEA | PIT | Mason Rudolph | 19 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5.84 | 24% |
| 17 | LV | @IND | Gardner Minshew II | 23.75 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 5.81 | 12% |
| 18 | NO | @TB | Baker Mayfield | 22.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 5.75 | 54% |
| 19 | GB | @MIN | Nick Mullens | 23.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 5.71 | 66% |
| 20 | NYJ | @CLE | Joe Flacco | 21.75 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 5.56 | 84% |
| 21 | NYG | LAR | Matthew Stafford | 24.25 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 5.55 | 2% |
| 22 | TEN | @HOU | Case Keenum | 23 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 5.45 | 6% |
| 23 | BAL | MIA | Tua Tagovailoa | 22 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 5.43 | 81% |
| 24 | CAR | @JAC | Trevor Lawrence | 22 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 5.43 | 5% |
| 25 | MIN | GB | Jordan Love | 21.75 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 5.43 | 17% |
| 26 | MIA | @BAL | Lamar Jackson | 25 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5.22 | 68% |
| 27 | DAL | DET | Jared Goff | 23.75 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 5.06 | 91% |
| 28 | NE | @BUF | Josh Allen | 26.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 4.76 | 22% |
| 29 | CIN | @KC | Patrick Mahomes II | 26.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 4.41 | 51% |
| 30 | ARI | @PHI | Jalen Hurts | 28.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 4.26 | 1% |
| 31 | DET | @DAL | Dak Prescott | 29.75 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 4.07 | 29% |
| 32 | WAS | SF | Brock Purdy | 31 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 3.89 | 19% |
Week 17 Matchups
- CLE vs NYJ: Jets QB Zach Wilson did not play last week due to a concussion, with Trevor Siemian filling in. I assume Wilson would play this week if he clears protocol, but it remains to be seen if that will happen. With the Jets out of the playoffs and just coasting to the end of the season, it’s doesn’t really matter to the Browns who starts. This is a good matchup for one of the best defenses in football either way.
- JAC vs CAR: Bryce Young turned in the best performance of his underwhelming rookie season last week in a loss to the Packers, recording multiple touchdowns and no turnovers for the first time. That doesn’t really scare me for the Jaguars at home, who have a solid defense and are in a three-way tie for the NFC South.
- SF @ WAS: The Commanders have now, in back-to-back weeks, benched Sam Howell mid-game to allow Jacoby Brissett to stage a significant fraction of a comeback. We don’t yet know who will start next week, for it to be Howell again would be puzzling but not surprising. The 49ers struggled against the Ravens on both sides of the ball last week, but the best-in-the-AFC Ravens and 4-11 Commanders could not be more different. While Howell would offer more upside to the 49ers, I would still feel totally confident starting them against Brissett.
- BUF vs NE: The Patriots and Bailey Zappe pulled off a significant upset against the Broncos last week. The Patriots have now exceeded 20 points in 2 of the last 3 weeks, after doing so only once earlier this season. The Bills defense has been playing well in the last few weeks, including holding the Chiefs and Cowboys offenses under 20 points. I am not worried about their ability to handle Bill Belichick’s last Patriots offense.
- DEN vs LAC: This is a lost season for the Chargers, who are now 0-3 with Easton Stick as a starter. The Broncos may have fumbled away their realistic playoff hopes against the Patriots last week, but they are technically still alive for the playoffs and have something to prove. They held the Chargers to just 7 points in Stick’s first start in Week 14, and now they get a chance to do it again at home.
- LAR @ NYG: The Giants benched Tommy DeVito at halftime last week, in favor of Tyrod Taylor. This is yet another situation where we don’t know which QB will start next week, and it doesn’t super matter for the Rams’ fantasy outlook. DeVito is a better target than Taylor due to his higher potential for sacks, but I consider the Rams a good but not great start this week either way.
- HOU vs TEN: Last week, Ryan Tannehill made his first start for the Titans since Week 6, with Will Levis sidelined by an ankle injury. The Titans have allowed both quarterbacks to take a lot of sacks – the Titans average 3.7 sacks allowed per game, which is tied (CAR) for fourth in the league. For the Titans to be top-5 in sacks allowed and simultaneously bottom-10 in pass play percentage at 56% is something special – typically those two things are strongly correlated. The Texans are in the playoff hunt and match up well against a run-first Titans offense.
- KC vs CIN: Jake Browning looked like the answer for Cincinnati, but the wheels came off last week then he threw three interceptions against the Steelers. Now he has another road game against a similarly strong Chiefs defense. It remains to be seen if the Chiefs’ offense can get their act together and finally lock down that playoff spot, but their defense has been their better half all year and should be able to take care of business at home against Jake Browning.
- CHI vs ATL: The Falcons benched Desmond Ridder for Taylor Heinicke ahead of last week’s game, and it appears that Heinicke will start the remainder of the season. This worked out, with Heinicke game managing his way to a 29-10 victory over the Colts. Meanwhile the Bears snapped their 4-game streak of finishing 6th or better among fantasy defenses, despite holding the Cardinals to 16 points. The Bears’ defense has been playing well lately including against some pretty good offenses, so I have high expectations for them at home against Heinicke.
- PHI vs ARI: Kyler Murray has been back for six weeks now, and has not done anything that should scare the Eagles’ defense. Last week was his best game of the season with a QB rating of 97.5, but that only led to 16 points against the bears. The Eagles were the only playoff-locked NFC team not to get upset last week and are happy to be facing Arizona as they battle for better seeding. The outlook is good for their defense in fantasy, albeit with limited upside since Murray doesn’t take as many sacks as most DST-target quarterbacks.
Week 18
It’s tough to have to play fantasy in week 18. Much of the playoff picture will already be set, so teams are liable to sit their starters. That creates headaches on the offensive side of the ball as we try to cobble together a team of players who are actually playing, but it can create opportunities on defense when normally-bad matchups trot out backups. Here are some defenses I’m thinking about for Week 18:
- Buffalo Bills (vs NE this week, @ MIA next week) There are some scenarios that could result in the Dolphins being locked for the 2-seed in the AFC going in to Week 18, in which case they could sit their starters. They could also end up still fighting for the 1-seed, if they beat the Ravens this week. So this is one to keep an eye on, if the Dolphins sit their starters the Bills could be a great play in Week 18.
- Cleveland Browns (vs NYJ this week, @ CIN next week) With Jake Browning at the helm, the Bengals should be a good matchup for the Browns in Week 18, whether or not the Bengals are still in contention for an AFC wild card spot.
- Dallas Cowboys (vs DET this week, @ WAS next week) The Commanders are out of playoff contention and would be a great matchup for the Cowboys if they are playing their starters. The Cowboys are currently locked for the playoffs and are 1 game behind the Eagles for the NFC East title (and by extension, a top-4 seed). None of the other teams competing for NFC wildcard spots have more than 8 wins. So depending on the results of this week’s games, the Cowboys will either be locked into the 5 seed as the best wildcard team, or still competing for the division. If they’re playing their defensive starters, the Cowboys will be a good fantasy play in Week 18.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (vs CAR this week, @ TEN next week) The Jaguars, Colts and Texans are all sitting at 8-7 competing for the AFC South title and wildcard spots, with the Jags advantaged on tiebreakers. It’s very possible that those teams all still have something to play for next week, which could make the Jags an excellent fantasy start against the already-eliminated, sack-prone Titans.
- Kansas City Chiefs (vs CIN this week, @ LAC next week) The AFC West battle is not quite over, with the Chiefs leading at 9-6 but the Raiders and Broncos both still alive for the playoffs at 7-8. The Chiefs could lock it up with a win against the Bengals this week. But if they lose, they may find themselves needing a win in Week 18 against a Chargers team that has been pretty bad since Justin Herbert‘s injury.
- New England Patriots (@ BUF this week, vs NYJ next week) The Patriots and Jets are both eliminated from the playoffs, and face each other in Week 18. With both teams potentially resting players, the Bill Belichick defense against a Jets offense that’s been bad all year could be a good play.
- Philadelphia Eagles (vs ARI this week, @ NYG next week) The Eagles are tied atop the NFC with the 49ers and Lions at 11-4, with the 10-5 Cowboys hot on their heels for the NFC East title. It’s very possible that the Eagles in week 18 will still be playing for a Bye and/or the division title. If they are, they get to play the already-eliminated Giants who have been a good DST matchup all year.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (@ SEA this week, @ BAL next week) If the Ravens beat the Dolphins this week (which they are favored to do), they would lock up the 1 seed in the AFC and be incentivized to sit their starters in Week 18. Meanwhile the Steelers could still be in contention for a wildcard spot if they beat the Seahawks this week (which they are not favored to do). A Steelers defense that cares against a Ravens offense that doesn’t could be a good play in Week 18.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs NO this week, @ CAR next week) In Week 18 the Buccaneers could find themselves still fighting for the NFC south title, and they get to do that against a Panthers team that is both eliminated and terrible.
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