The Fantasy Playoffs are here! If you’ve been following this series and had the bench space, you might already have a defense planned for this week. Whether you’re picking up a streamer or evaluating if you should stick with a plan already in motion, up-to-date defense projections can help. So let’s get to it!
Week 16 D/ST Projections
This is a solid week for streaming, with several of the most-targtatable offenses facing good defenses. While none of my top tier have rock-bottom rostership, there are three teams in my top 10 that are taken in less than 20% of leagues, so it shouldn’t be too hard to find a viable defense. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter.
| Rank | Team | Vs. | Vs. QB | PA | Sacks | Turnovers | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||
| 1 | DEN | NE | Bailey Zappe | 14 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 8.00 | 47% |
| 2 | GB | @CAR | Bryce Young | 15.75 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 7.95 | 47% |
| 3 | BUF | @LAC | Easton Stick | 15.75 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 7.57 | 74% |
| 4 | PHI | NYG | Tommy DeVito | 16.25 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 7.73 | 74% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||
| 5 | KC | LV | Aidan O’Connell | 15.75 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 7.66 | 91% |
| 6 | NYJ | WAS | Sam Howell | 17.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 7.48 | 73% |
| 7 | CIN | @PIT | Mason Rudolph | 17.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 7.02 | 48% |
| 8 | WAS | @NYJ | Zach Wilson | 20.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 6.97 | 14% |
| 9 | SEA | @TEN | Will Levis | 20 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 6.90 | 17% |
| 10 | CHI | ARI | Kyler Murray | 20 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 6.56 | 14% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||
| 11 | NE | @DEN | Russell Wilson | 20.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 6.55 | 22% |
| 12 | DET | @MIN | Nick Mullens | 22 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 6.40 | 31% |
| 13 | IND | @ATL | Desmond Ridder | 21.25 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 6.04 | 46% |
| 14 | SF | BAL | Lamar Jackson | 20.25 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 6.04 | 99% |
| 15 | PIT | CIN | Jake Browning | 20 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 6.00 | 73% |
| 16 | ARI | @CHI | Justin Fields | 24.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 5.99 | 1% |
| 17 | TEN | SEA | Geno Smith | 22.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 5.97 | 8% |
| 18 | HOU | CLE | Joe Flacco | 20 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 5.90 | 37% |
| 19 | JAC | @TB | Baker Mayfield | 22 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 5.85 | 42% |
| 20 | TB | JAC | Trevor Lawrence | 21 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 5.75 | 38% |
| 21 | ATL | IND | Gardner Minshew II | 23.25 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 5.72 | 58% |
| 22 | NO | @LAR | Matthew Stafford | 24.25 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 5.61 | 76% |
| 23 | LAR | NO | Derek Carr | 20.25 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 5.59 | 21% |
| 24 | CLE | @HOU | Case Keenum | 22.5 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 5.53 | 85% |
| 25 | CAR | GB | Jordan Love | 20.75 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 5.51 | 5% |
| 26 | MIA | DAL | Dak Prescott | 24.75 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 5.18 | 93% |
| 27 | BAL | @SF | Brock Purdy | 25.75 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5.07 | 88% |
| 28 | MIN | DET | Jared Goff | 25 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 4.85 | 20% |
| 29 | LAC | BUF | Josh Allen | 26.75 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 4.82 | 29% |
| 30 | DAL | @MIA | Tua Tagovailoa | 26.25 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 4.61 | 94% |
| 31 | NYG | @PHI | Jalen Hurts | 26.75 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 4.58 | 3% |
| 32 | LV | @KC | Patrick Mahomes II | 25.75 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 4.50 | 22% |
Matchups
- DEN vs NE: Last week the Patriots scored double-digit points in consecutive games for the first time in a while, and it tells you a lot that 17 points is one of their better performances as a team. This dysfunctional offense has to go on the road to face the pretty OK Broncos for the Christmas primetime game – I would be surprised if they can reach 17 points again. Bailey Zappe appears to have a firm grasp on the Patriots’ starting QB job, which he has held since the benching of Mac Jones in Week 12.
- GB @ CAR: The Packers’ defense got torched at home by Baker Mayfield last week, but this week they have the much easier task of facing Bryce Young and the Panthers. The Panthers actually managed to pick up their second win of the season, but they did it without much offense, with a final score of 9-7. Bryce Young has just not looked like a starting NFL quarterback, and the Packers are next in line to take advantage of that for fantasy.
- BUF @ LAC: The Chargers got absolutely clowned on by the Raiders last week. Quarterback Easton Stick is in a tough situation, being asked to replace Justin Herbert, who as it turns out was the only thing holding the Chargers together. Stick has a bit of a turnover problem as well – in Week 14 Stick played the second half and fumbled both times he was sacked. Then last week the was sacked by the Raiders three times, and fumbled on two of them. The Chargers are a top-tier defense target without Herbert, and that’s especially true for a good defense like Buffalo.
- PHI vs NYG: The Tommy DeVito hype train derailed last week, as the Saints held the Giants to just 6 points while sacking DeVito 7 times. (Fun fact: that was the 17th time this season a defense has had more sacks than points allowed.) As likeable as he is, we had backup QB expectations for DeVito and he hasn’t exceeded them in a significant way. Now the Giants have to face one of the better defenses in the league on the road. The Eagles are an easy start this week.
- KC vs LV: It might seem weird to recommend a defense facing an offense that scored 63 points last week, but the Raiders’ historic score was a lot more about the complete collapse of the Chargers on both sides of the ball, and not really indicative of a scary offense. The Chiefs defense has been good all year, and I expect them to put the Raiders back in their place.
- NYJ vs WAS: Commanders coach Ron Rivera benched Sam Howell in the 4th quarter of last week’s game, reportedly to protect him from the Rams’ pass rush. Indeed, the former king of sacks was only ended the day with one sack on his stat sheet. Jacoby Brissett was able to score two touchdowns in the last 10 minutes of the game, but Howell is still the starter going forward. This is kind of a difficult situation for opposing defenses if Rivera isn’t going to let Howell just throw picks and take sacks all day, but it’s less difficult for the Jets, who are not scared of either QB.
- CIN @ PIT: Since Kenny Pickett had surgery for a high ankle sprain, the Steelers have been starting Mitch Trubisky to a 0-3 record. After throwing two interceptions and leading the team to just 13 points, Trubisky has fallen down the depth chart. Apparently there’s a possibility that Pickett could return this week, but if he doesn’t, Mason Rudolph will start. Rudolph was a third-round draft pick by the Steelers in 2018 and has a been a backup ever since. He played 10 games in 2019 when Ben Roethlisberger had season-ending elbow surgery, but currently has not seen the field since 2021. There are worse backups in the league, but Rudolph is not a player that should scare the Bengals defense.
- WAS @ NYJ: New York Jet Zach Wilson is currently in concussion protocol under kind of confusing circumstances. He’s questionable for this week, but given that the Jets are now mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and the drama around Wilson’s repeated benching, I wouldn’t be surprised if he sits out the rest of the season. Trevor Siemian is the next guy up, and a clear downgrade from Wilson. Either one would be a good matchup for the Commanders defense.
- SEA @ TEN: The Seahawks defense held the Eagles to just 17 points on Monday Night Football and completed a big upset. Meanwhile
OilersTitans QB Will Levis took 7 sacks in a loss to the Texans. This is Levis’ 4th game in only 8 starts with 4+ sacks and an interception. The Seahawks, who saw two clutch interceptions by Julian Love last week, are certainly the kind of team that could see that sort of day from the Titans. - CHI vs ARI: The Bears might not be the first team that comes to mind when talking about effective defenses, but they are on a 3-game streak of holding opponents to less than 20 points, and that includes the high-powered Lions offense. And while last week’s 29 points were the Cardinals’ highest in five games with Kyler Murray playing, it also involved two interceptions. I don’t expect the Cardinals to be playing from behind and throwing quite as much as they were against the 49ers, but this is still a decent matchup for a defense that’s been playing well.
Stashes/Holds for Week 17
I don’t have full projections for Week 17 in the absence of Vegas lines for those games, but I can tell you which teams I think look most likely to be viable next week, based on matchup.
- Buffalo Bills (@ LAC this week, then vs NE next week) – If you have the Bills, congratulations! You have a good defense with back-to-back great matchups for the fantasy playoffs, with Chargers this week and the Patriots in Week 17.
- Chicago Bears (vs ARI this week, then vs ATL next week) – The Bears aren’t my first choice for a playoff defense, but they’ve been playing well lately and get two good (but not great) matchups at home.
- Cleveland Browns (@ HOU this week, then vs NYJ next week) – I’m not super interested in starting the Browns this week. If C.J. Stroud is able to return for the Texans, I’m definitely staying away. If Case Keenum starts the Browns are a more reasonable play, but Keenum is not particularly prone to interceptions and sacks, so the fantasy upside is limited even if it’s a good matchup in the real world. Whether you use them this week or not, the Browns will be a top choice in the fantasy finals against the Jets.
- Denver Broncos (vs NE this week, then vs LAC next week) – The Broncos have two great matchups at home for the fantasy playoffs and will be battling for a real-world playoff spot.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (@ TB this week, then vs CAR next week) – The Jags are not a team I’m interested in starting this week, against the Buccaneers. But they are a great stash thanks to a home game against the Panthers – one of the best DST targets – in Week 17.
- Los Angeles Rams (vs NO this week, @ NYG next week) – The Rams are another good stash. The Saints aren’t the scariest team, but they also aren’t a team I’m interested in targeting this week. The Giants, however, are a team I’m interested in targeting every week.
- Philadelphia Eagles (vs NYG this week, vs ARI next week) – The Eagles get a great matchup against the Giants this week, and then another good one with the Cardinals in Week 17, and both games are at home.
- San Francisco 49ers (vs BAL this week, then @ WAS next week) – The 49ers have served you well lately if you have them, but I recommend stashing them on the bench for this week’s Ravens matchup. But don’t drop them – they get a good high-upside matchup against the Commanders the week after.
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