The fantasy playoffs are here! In some leagues at least – if it’s the last week of the regular season and you still care, that means it’s do-or-die and might as well be a playoff week. Before we get to Week 15 rankings, there are a couple QB situation changes to go over:

• Chargers QB Justin Herbert suffered a broken finger on his throwing hand, and is having season-ending surgery. Easton Stick will be the starter the rest of the way. Stick was a fifth-round draft pick by the Chargers in 2019 out of South Dakota State, where he was the winningest quarterback in FCS (that is, the second tier of college football) history. Stick didn’t make his way to the backup job until this season, and saw his first significant snaps last week. The Chargers are now a fantasy defense target for the rest of the season.
• Texans rookie sensation C.J. Stroud is in concussion protocol after leaving last week’s game in the fourth quarter. It’s worth monitoring the news on him – my expectation is that he will miss at least one week. Davis Mills, who started for the Texans for two years (without much success) before Stroud was drafted, is the backup.
• This isn’t a recent change but I want to mention the Jake Browning has been balling out for the Bengals, after taking over for the injured Joe Burrow. Browning has led the Bengals to 34 points and recorded a QB rating north of 110 in each of his last two games. So despite losing Burrow, the Bengals are not a team to target with fantasy defenses.

Week 15 D/ST Projections

We’re finally done with bye weeks so all 32 teams are playing. Despite that fact there are still not that many defenses that feel like home runs this week, due how the schedule lines up. Still, there are two sub-10% rostership defenses facing backup quarterbacks this week (LV and TEN), so you should be able to find something. Rostership numbers are from yahoo. You can find me on the platform formerly known as Twitter.

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Week 15 Matchups

1. ATL @ CAR: Bryce young continued to struggle last week, completing a league-worst (among starters) 36% of his passes in the Panthers’ sixth straight loss. This, combined with a fumble six, made the Saints the #1 fantasy defense last week. The Falcons aren’t the most exciting defense to start, but they are in the category of teams that can take advantage of a matchup like this.
2. KC @ NE: Speaking of dysfunctional offenses, the Patriots looked like a real offense for the first time in a while last week, but that doesn’t scare me for Kansas City. I’ve used the word “rock-bottom” to describe team point projections of 16 before, and the patriots are at 13.75 this week. The only thing keeping them out of the top spot against a good defense like KC is the good-but-not-great sacks projection for Bailey Zappe. In 6 career games where Zappe had more than 50% of team QB snaps, Zappe has taken 13 sacks, an average of 2.16 per game.
3. MIA vs NYJ: Jets QB Zach Wilson made his triumphant return to the starting job last week, recording his best performance of the season wherein he only turned the ball over once, and beat the Texans 30-6. Wilson has made a strong case that he is not the problem in New Jersey, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t still a problem. In this good performance he also took 4 sacks from a Texans defense that’s ranked 22nd in sacks. As happy as I am for Wilson, 30 points is an outlier – the Vegas-implied team total for the Jets is just 15.5 this week, which is great matchup territory. Additionally the Dolphins are tied for third in sacks (with BUF, IND and KC), so I expect them to have a solid floor, with serious upside if this offense falls off the rails again.
4. NO vs NYG: The Tommy DeVito saga continued last week with the Giants’ third consecutive win. Notably, he avoided taking any sacks, after taking 26 across the previous 4 games. And while he has looked good, the offense hasn’t exactly been rolling, with an average of 17.6 points in DeVito’s 5 starts. I think you could reasonably argue that a sub-17 point projection is an underreaction to what this offense has done lately, but I think that sounds about right on the road.
5. CLE vs CHI: The Browns’ defense has not been bulletproof, but they are still one of the best in the league, and match up well against a run-first offense led by a sack-prone Justin Fields. Considering the lack of other options that feel amazing, if you have the Browns I wouldn’t be looking to bench them at home this week.
6. LV vs LAC: Justin Herbert has a broken finger and is out for the season, which means Easton Stick will start. Stick has been a member of the Chargers’ depth chart since he was drafted in the fifth round in 2019, but saw his first significant snaps last week when he played about half the game in relief of Herbert. Stick did not do a ton against the Broncos – he completed a little over half his passes, oversaw one touchdown drive, and was sacked twice, fumbling both times. Stick is technically still a big question mark, but my expectations are low considering his resume and how this offense has struggled even with Herbert under center.
7. LAC @ LV: Last week, Aidan O’Connell‘s Raiders became the only losers among the 257 teams since 2008 to allow 3 or fewer points. Put another way, the Raiders got shut out in the worst football game you’ve ever seen (unless you like punts). The Chargers have had their struggles on defense, but they can still get there in a matchup this good – they’ve already been the #1 fantasy defense twice this season, against similarly terrible Jets and Patriots offenses.
8. TEN vs HOU: C.J. Stroud left last week’s game against the Jets with a concussion and is currently in the protocol. I’m not expecting him to play this week, but it is possible, so pay attention to the news if you’re thinking about starting the Titans. I would not start any defense against Stroud, but I would start the Titans defenses against Davis Mills. Mills started most of the prior two seasons for the Texans, who went 5-23-1 in those games. The Titans pulled off a significant upset against the Dolphins last week, and their defense was effective for the fraction of the game without Tyreek Hill on the field. The Texans without Stroud are worse than the Dolphins without Tyreek, so the outlook is good as long as Stroud sits out.
9. SF @ ARI: In four games since the return of Kyler Murray, the Cardinals’ offense has been fine, with the team going 2-2. The 49ers will be Murray’s toughest test yet, even at home. If you have the 49ers defense you should be very happy that they get this matchup in what, for some leagues, is the first playoff game. I expect the 49ers to be dominant here, even if Murray isn’t as sack-prone as some other QBs.
10. LAR vs WAS: While Sam Howell has shown flashes of brilliance and can certainly accumulate passing yards, prior to their Week 14 bye the Commanders’ offense was in a slump of three consecutive games scoring fewer than 20 points. While Howell’s Sack numbers have cooled off a bit since the early season, he still maintains a defense-friendly pace of 3-4 sacks every game – Week 8 against the Eagles is still his only game with fewer than 3 sacks.

Fantasy Playoffs Stashes

The Fantasy Playoffs are the most important time to have the right defense, and they’re also the easiest time to plan ahead, for a few reasons. With bye weeks over and breakout players having mostly broken out already, bench spots are as available as they’ll ever be. And with fewer teams still competing, waiver-wire competition is at an all-time low. Here are some teams I think could be worth stashing on the bench or holding after this week, for their playoff matchups:

• Buffalo Bills (vs DAL this week, then @LAC Week 16 and vs NE Week 17). The Chargers are suddenly a great matchup due to Justin Herbert‘s season-ending injury, which gives the Bills an excellent fantasy playoff schedule against the Chargers and Patriots. If you’re in the 29% of leagues where they’re available, go put in a waiver claim right now.
• Chicago Bears (@ CLE this week, then vs ARI Week 16 and vs ATL Week 17). The Bears are a solid choice for the fantasy playoffs, with two good-but-not-great matchups against bird teams in Weeks 16-17.
• Cleveland Browns (vs CHI this week, then @ HOU Week 16 and vs NYJ Week 17). Whether or not the Texans are a good matchup in Week 16 depends on how quickly C.J. Stroud progresses through the concussion protocol. The Jets will be a good matchup in Week 17, outside of the unlikely event that Zach Wilson balls out between now and then.
• Denver Broncos (@ DET this week, then vs NE Week 16 and vs LAC Week 17). Like the Bills, the Broncos also face the Patriots and Chargers – both great matchups – in Weeks 16-17.
• Green Bay Packers (vs TB this week, @ CAR Week 16). The Packers – who have shut down some good offenses lately – could be a great spot start in Week 16 against the Panthers, who have been one of the best defense targets all season.
• Jacksonville Jaguars (vs BAL this week, vs CAR Week 17). Alongside the Packers, the Jags are the other pretty good defense that gets to face the Panthers in the fantasy playoffs.
• Kansas City Chiefs (@ NE this week, vs LV Week 16, vs CIN Week 17). The Chiefs get the first of two good matchups this week. I’m not super interested in starting them Week 17 against the Jake Browning-led Bengals, who have had back to back great offensive showings.
• Philadelphia Eagles (@SEA this week, then vs NYG Week 16 and vs ARI Week 17). I’m not starting them against Geno Smith and the Seahawks this week, but the Eagles get two good matchups at home against the Giants and Cardinals in Weeks 16-17.

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