The fantasy playoffs are just around the corner, and we have another round of quarterback injuries that will impact the landscape of which teams are good matchups. Here’s the news:
- Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence suffered at least an ankle sprain, if not something more serious on Monday Night Football. If he misses significant time – and I think we will – C.J. Beathard will start in his place. We’ll see how Beathard plays, but I expect the Jags to be a viable defense target while Lawrence is out.
- Steelers QB Kenny Pickett had surgery for an ankle injury but was not placed on IR, with the expectation that he could return for Week 18. In the meantime, former Bears great Mitch Trubisky will start instead.
- Browns QB Joe Flacco is not injured, but I wanted to mention him here because he played well last week in relief of Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who suffered in a concussion in Week 12. It looks like DTR will miss another week. I’m not really interested in targeting the Browns’ offense in fantasy while Flacco is the starter, which is not something I expected to say before last week’s game.
Week 14 D/ST Projections
This is the last week of byes, with the Cardinals and Commanders out. Both are good-but-not-great defense targets, so the streaming landscape is a little tight this week. Luckily two of my favorite defenses for this week are rostered in less than 20% of leagues. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter.
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
| Rank | Team | Vs. | Vs. QB | PA | Sacks | Turnovers | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||
| 1 | PIT | NE | Bailey Zappe | 12 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 8.56 | 93% |
| 2 | HOU | @NYJ | Tim Boyle | 14 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 8.14 | 13% |
| 3 | GB | @NYG | Tommy DeVito | 15.25 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 8.06 | 18% |
| 4 | NO | CAR | Bryce Young | 16 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 8.04 | 42% |
| 5 | CLE | JAC | C.J. Beathard | 16 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 7.77 | 81% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||
| 6 | MIA | TEN | Will Levis | 16.75 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 7.59 | 91% |
| 7 | DET | @CHI | Justin Fields | 18.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 7.3 | 31% |
| 8 | MIN | @LV | Aidan O’Connell | 18.75 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 6.83 | 14% |
| 9 | SF | SEA | Geno Smith | 18 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 6.82 | 97% |
| 10 | NE | @PIT | Mitch Trubisky | 18 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 6.78 | 23% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||
| 11 | LAC | DEN | Russell Wilson | 20 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 6.77 | 57% |
| 12 | BAL | LAR | Matthew Stafford | 17.75 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 6.69 | 84% |
| 13 | ATL | TB | Baker Mayfield | 18.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 6.49 | 52% |
| 14 | JAC | @CLE | Joe Flacco | 17.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 6.3 | 74% |
| 15 | IND | @CIN | Jake Browning | 20.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 6.26 | 31% |
| 16 | NYJ | HOU | C.J. Stroud | 20.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 6.21 | 79% |
| 17 | CAR | @NO | Jameis Winston | 21.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 6.06 | 5% |
| 18 | CIN | IND | Gardner Minshew II | 21.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 27% |
| 19 | TB | @ATL | Desmond Ridder | 21 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 5.96 | 84% |
| 20 | KC | BUF | Josh Allen | 22.5 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 5.61 | 86% |
| 21 | LV | MIN | Joshua Dobbs | 21.75 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 5.4 | 7% |
| 22 | DEN | @LAC | Justin Herbert | 23 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 5.36 | 37% |
| 23 | NYG | GB | Jordan Love | 21.75 | 2 | 1.2 | 5.3 | 3% |
| 24 | CHI | DET | Jared Goff | 21.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5.21 | 4% |
| 25 | LAR | @BAL | Lamar Jackson | 24.75 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 5.14 | 36% |
| 26 | DAL | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 24.75 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5.13 | 100% |
| 27 | BUF | @KC | Patrick Mahomes II | 25 | 2 | 1.2 | 4.67 | 73% |
| 28 | SEA | @SF | Brock Purdy | 28.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 4.37 | 23% |
| 29 | PHI | @DAL | Dak Prescott | 28.25 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 4.33 | 72% |
| 30 | TEN | @MIA | Tua Tagovailoa | 30.25 | 2 | 1.2 | 3.61 | 13% |
Week 14 Matchups
- PIT vs NE: The Patriots can’t seem to decide if they want their starting QB to be Mac Jones (who has been benched mid-game four times this season), or Bailey Zappe. Zappe got the start last week, and will again this week. It doesn’t really seem to matter – this is the worst team in football by a clear margin. In the last three games they have scored a total of 13 points. The Patriots are a viable matchup for any defense, and that’s especially true for an above-average unit like the Steelers.
- HOU @ NYJ: The Jets benched QB Zach Wilson heading into Week 12, and named Tim Boyle the starter. Last week, Boyle was benched mid-game for Trevor Siemian. It turns out both QBs are even worse than Wilson, and the Jets want him back. For Wilson’s sake I hope he refuses to every play for the Jets again and gets a redemption arc with another team sometime in the next couple years. For our sake as fantasy defense streamers, it doesn’t really matter – none of the three is good enough to be productive behind the worst offensive line in the league.
- GB @ NYG: Tommy DeVito is a fun player we all like rooting for, but he hasn’t elevated the giants all that much and he takes a ton of sacks. In four starts, DeVito has taken at least 5 sacks in each game for a total of 26. Sacks are the bread and butter of fantasy defense scoring, and I expect this trend to continue against a Packers defense that has held each of the Chargers, Lions and Chiefs to 22 points or less over the last 3 weeks.
- NO vs CAR: Panthers QB Bryce Young continues to disappoint, having not had a multi-touchdown game since Week 5 and averaging 4 sacks/game this season. The Saints get their turn at home to face one of the league’s premier every-week defense targets.
- CLE vs JAC: Trevor Lawrence suffered an ankle injury during Monday night football. It is at least a sprain, but at this point on Tuesday morning we don’t yet know if it’s anything more serious. If Lawrence is somehow able to play, I would not start any defense against him. In all likelihood though, C.J. Beathard will start for the Jags in his absence. Beathard is a veteran backup, who started 12 total games for the 49ers in 2017-2020. His career stats suggest that he is turnover and sack-prone, but to be fair his ball security was good in 2020, the last time he saw significant playing time. It remains to be seen exactly how good he’ll be with the Jags, but I don’t expect him to be anywhere near good enough to scare off a top-tier defense like the Browns.
- MIA vs TEN: Will Levis stepped up his sack game last week, taking 6 sacks from the Colts. That combined with a blocked punt touchdown made the Colts the #1 defense in fantasy despite allowing 26 points on defense. The Titans are just not a particularly scary offense and if they can continue to take sacks like that, it should be a great day for a Dolphins team with home field advantage.
- DET @ CHI: The Bears have been a solid fantasy target all season, giving up fewer than 6 fantasy points to the opposing defense just twice. Justin Fields has only had two particularly good games back in Weeks 4-5, out of 8 starts, and maintained an average of 3.6 sacks per game. While it’s not a home-run matchup for the Lions, it is a pretty good one for one of the best teams in football.
- MIN @ LV: With Aidan O’Connell at QB, the Raiders offense has been anemic, exceeding 20 points just once in five games. For sacks and turnovers the outlook is not all that favorable for the Vikings, with more than half of O’Connell’s sacks coming in his first game of the season, and half his interceptions coming in one game against the Dolphins. The Vikings this week are a low-risk but also low-upside play.
- SF vs SEA: The 49ers made a statement last week, holding the exalted Eagles offense to just 19 points. Seahawks QB Geno Smith has been good lately – he was the #1 fantasy QB last week in a 35-41 loss to the Cowboys. But the 49ers defense is too good not to play if you have them.
- NE @ PIT: Despite their offensive woes, the Patriots’ defense defense has been effective. Their opponents haven’t really needed to score much, but that doesn’t change the fact that New England finished as a top-10 fantasy defense in both of their last two games. Meanwhile, Steelers QB Kenny Pickett has an ankle injury that is expected to keep him out until Week 18, and Mitch Trubisky will start. In his first four years as “the guy” for the Bears, Trubisky was a bit of a gunslinger with high scoring, sacks and turnovers in equal measure. In the past two years he has played 10 games for the Steelers, and failed to impress, with the team going 3-7 in those games and only exceeding 20 points once. He has reigned in the sacks and turnovers as a Steeler, so the upside here is limited.
Defenses to Stash/Hold for Week 15+
The Fantasy Playoffs are looming large, starting next week or the week after. This is also the last week with byes, so going forward you won’t really need more than a 2-3 WRs and RBs (each) on your bench for depth, opening up room to stash a defense. Here are defenses that I think could be worth stashing or holding on to after playing this week:
- Atlanta Falcons (vs TB this week, @ CAR next week) – They’re a last resort type of defense this week, but next week the Falcons get an excellent matchup against the Panthers.
- Baltimore Ravens (vs LAR this week, @ JAC next week) – The Ravens remaining schedule looks tough, but the injury to Trevor Lawrence means they will in all likelihood be a good play against C.J. Beathard in Week 15.
- Buffalo Bills (@KC this week, vs NE Week 17) – If you’re championship-bound, the Bills are a great stash as a good defense with an amazing matchup in Week 17.
- Cleveland Browns (vs JAC this week, then vs CHI Week 15 and vs NYJ Week 17) – The Browns are a great defense to have ROS, as a good defense in real life with only one matchup – the Texans in Week 16 – where I would want to find an alternative.
- Green Bay Packers (@NYG this week, then vs TB Week 15 and @ CAR Week 16) – The Packers are at the beginning of a nice 3-week run with NYG, TB and CAR in that order.
- Indianapolis Colts (@CIN this week, vs PIT Week 15, @ ATL Week 16 and vs LV Week 17) – The Colts are another defense with a great ROS schedule, starting this week with the Bengals (sans Joe Burrow), then the Steelers (sans Kenny Picket), Falcons and Raiders.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (@ CLE this week, @TB Week 16, vs CAR Week 17) – I’m not interested in playing the Jags against the Browns this week after how Joe Flacco played for them in his debut. But the Jags have a good playoff schedule with the Buccaneers and especially the Panthers.
- Kansas City Chiefs (vs BUF this week, then @NE Week 15, vs LV Week 16 and vs CIN Week 17) – The excellent Chiefs defense has a tough one with the Bills this week, but has three consecutive good matchups the rest of the way.
- Los Angeles Rams (@ BAL this week, vs WAS Week 15, @ NYG Week 17) – The Rams have good matchups in Weeks 15 and 17 and would make a good tandem with any team that will be viable in Week 16.
- Miami Dolphins (vs TEN this week, then vs NYJ Week 15) – If you have the Dolphins they’ll be a great play again in Week 15 against the Jets, but become droppable after that as they play the Cowboys and Ravens in Weeks 16-17.
- Philadelphia Eagles (@DAL this week, vs NYG Week 16 and vs ARI Week 17) – Despite getting trounced last week and having a couple more tough matchups, the Eagles are a defense I have confidence in for their great playoff matchups in Weeks 16-17.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (vs NE this week, vs CIN Week 16) – With good matchups this week and in Week 16, the Steelers would make a great tandem with teams like the Browns and Rams that have good matchups in Weeks 15 and 17.
- San Francisco 49ers (vs SEA this week, @ ARI Week 15, @ WAS Week 17) – The 49ers defense is great, but even if you want to fade them against the Seahawks this week or Ravens in Week 16, they still have great matchups in Weeks 15 and 17.
- Washington Commanders (on bye this week, @ NYJ Week 16) – The Commanders have an amazing matchup against the Jets in week 16.
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