Fitz’s Week 16 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (2023 Fantasy Football)

Variance is a feature of fantasy football, not a bug.

If this silly little game we love so much were more predictable, it wouldn’t be so much fun to sift through the puzzle pieces trying to figure it all out.

Also, you wouldn’t need people like me, so I’d have to get a real job. Nuts to that.

But this is the time of year when variance can be especially vexing because it can bring your fantasy season to an abrupt end.

In a perfect world, every team in the fantasy playoffs would get big games from its stars, and may the team that lands the most haymakers win. Of course, it usually doesn’t work that way.

There’s no need to mention this to investors in Travis Kelce, Stefon Diggs, Brandon Aiyuk, Derrick Henry, Breece Hall, Saquon Barkley, Justin Fields or any of the other stars who laid eggs in Week 15.

Meanwhile, lightly regarded players such as Zamir White, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Noah Brown, Hunter Henry, Tucker Kraft and Jake Browning were dragging fantasy managers to improbable playoff victories last week.

I snuck a team into the playoffs with a 5-9 record in one of my superflex dynasty leagues by virtue of a strong all-play record. My starters on that team include Baker Mayfield, David Njoku and Jaylen Waddle, who all smashed last week, so my humble little team evicted a far superior team from the playoffs.

The best teams don’t always win — in real football and in fantasy football alike. Play fantasy long enough, and you’ll acquire enough bad-beat stories to fill Santas’s bag.

It feels unfair, but that’s fantasy football, friends. Variance cuts both ways, and there will be times when your inferior teams win games they shouldn’t because one of your ham-and-eggers erupts for 100 yards and two touchdowns.

Bad beats are the pits, but try not to let a disappointing loss get you down during this season of joy.

And speaking of the holidays …

Christmas Eve and Christmas Day collide inconveniently with the NFL schedule this year. This will greatly displease many non-fans. I know it will annoy my mom, who likes to put on Christmas music during our family Christmas Eve celebration but will be denied because my son and I will be tracking our fantasy semifinal games, and because my stepdad will have $100 on the Bears.

It would be hypocritical of me to tell you to turn off the TV and focus your attention entirely on friends and family. I will not be turning off the TV and focusing my attention entirely on friends and family.

But try not to get so engrossed in the games that you completely stonewall your loved ones.

Hug your parents.

Play with your young nieces and nephews.

Compliment your hosts and thank them for their hospitality.

Make eye contact with your aunt when she’s telling you about her gallbladder surgery rather than stealing glances at the TV to see if Patrick Mahomes‘ throw is intended for Rashee Rice.

Fantasy football glory is fleeting. Friends and family are forever. Show love to the people who love you the most.

May you and yours enjoy the blessings of the holiday season.

Merry Christmas to all, and to all Rachaad White!

As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases.

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Fitz’s Fantasy Football Week 16 Tiers & Rankings

QUARTERBACKS

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Tua Tagovailoa made it clear last week that we needn’t fear daunting matchups when deciding whether to start him. Tua was up against a Jets pass defense that has been smothering quarterbacks all season, and he was walking into the matchup without Tyreek Hill, the best wide receiver in the league. No matter. Tua picked his teeth with the Jets, completing 87.4% of his throws against the Jets and averaging 9.4 yards per pass attempt. It wasn’t a big fantasy day — 224 passing yards, one TD, no INTs — simply because the game turned into a Miami blowout and Tua only had to attempt 24 passes. But that performance made it clear that you shouldn’t hesitate to start Tua this week against a Dallas defense that ranks sixth in DVOA against the pass, even if the Dolphins are without Tyreek Hill again (though he’s reportedly expected to play)

Kyler Murray’s weekly fantasy finishes since his Week 10 return from his torn ACL: QB13, QB6, QB9, QB17, QB19. Murray has averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game, which puts him at QB15 in fantasy points per game since his return. We haven’t gotten the sort of splash game we’re accustomed to getting from Murray now and again, but I’m still encouraged despite the so-so results. Murray has thrown four touchdown passes in five starts. His TD percentage of 2.4% is well below his career percentage of 4.1%, so he’s due for a dead-cat bounce. But I’m mostly encouraged by the rushing production. Murray is averaging 5.8 rushing attempts and 31.0 rushing yards per game — only a tad below his career averages — and he had TD runs in each of his first three games back. We’re getting something close to “normal” Kyler Murray, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we got our first splash game of the season from Kyler this weekend against the Bears, even though it’s possible Murray will be without WR Marquise Brown (heel). I have Murray ranked just ahead of Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford. Any start/sit decision involving two of those three QBs would be difficult, but I’m always going to lean toward the quarterback who can run.

It seems as if people are still trying to get their heads around the improbable playability of Joe Flacco. Here’s a quarterback who turns 39 next month, hasn’t been the unquestioned season-long starter for an NFL team since 2017, has the mobility of the Statue of Liberty … and yet might just be a guy who can steer your team into the championship game of your fantasy playoffs. In three starts for the Browns, Flacco is averaging 313 passing yards per game and has thrown seven TD passes. He’s attempted 44, 45 and 44 passes in his three starts for Cleveland. Flacco is QB6 in fantasy scoring over the last three weeks. I have Flacco ranked as a low-end QB1 this week.

Two Week 16 fades for me: Jake Browning and Sam Howell. Browning won’t have WR Ja’Marr Chase this week, and he’s heading into hostile territory for a road matchup against the Steelers, who have an above-average pass defense and are likely to be in an ornery mood after three consecutive losses. Howell has a rough matchup against the Jets. He was also briefly benched last week in favor of Jacoby Brissett, and it’s possible Commanders head coach could give Howell the hook again if he struggles.

RUNNING BACKS

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In the Patriots’ first game after Rhamondre Stevenson sustained a high-ankle sprain, Ezekiel Elliott had 22-68-0 rushing and 7-72-1 receiving. Zeke’s heavy usage in the passing game probably had a lot to do with the absence of WRs Demario Douglas and DeVante Parker in Week 14. They were back in Week 15, and Zeke had 11-25-0 rushing and 5-21-0 receiving vs. the Chiefs. Even if Elliott’s passing-game usage stays modest, he could still pay off this weekend in a favorable matchup against the Broncos. Denver has given up a league-high 1,808 rushing yards to RBs this season.

Could Chuba Hubbard be an improbable hero of the fantasy playoffs? The former backup has become a workhorse for the Panthers down the stretch. Over his last three games, Hubbard has had 25, 23 and 22 carries, which has led to fantasy finishes of RB6, RB24 and RB18. Hubbard has gotten snap shares north of 70% in each of his last two games. Now he gets a heartwarming holiday matchup against the Packers, who have given up the fourth-most rushing yards and ninth-most fantasy points to RBs. Green Bay’s run defense ranks 26th in DVOA. Start Hubbard with confidence.

With Alexander Mattison out last week, Ty Chandler played 81% of the Vikings’ offensive snaps against the Bengals and had 23-132-1 rushing and 3-25-0 receiving, which made him the RB4 in fantasy scoring for the week. Chandler has more burst and looks more elusive than Mattison, and he has run/catch versatility. Chandler has a tougher matchup this week against a Lions defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs this year, but he should still be regarded as no worse than a low-end RB2.

Breece Hall is mega-talented, and I’ll be looking for excuses to draft him as often as possible in 2024. But I won’t try to talk you out of benching Hall this week. He’s being dragged down by an abysmal Jets offense. Hall hasn’t had more than 50 rushing yards in a game since Week 5, and he’s scored two touchdowns over his last seven games.

Maybe Austin Ekeler has been playing hurt all season and that’s the reason for his diminished effectiveness. Since coming back from an ankle injury in Week 5, Ekeler has been RB18 in PPR points per game. He’s averaged just 38.9 rushing yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry during that stretch. But Ekeler’s efficiency isn’t the only concern. The Chargers put Ekeler on ice last week when they were getting blown out by the Raiders, resulting in a season-low 40% snap share. Ekeler had just 5-9-0 rushing and 4-29-0 receiving. Now, the Chargers are double-digit underdogs to the Bills. Maybe Ekeler gets another early rest if the Chargers are getting thumped again.

James Conner has had two 100-yard rushing games this season, and he’s averaging 3.9 receiving yards per game, so it’s safe to say that his fantasy value has been touchdown-dependent. But Conner’s value has also been score-dependent. In games this season that the Cardinals have either won or lost by a one-score margin, Conner is averaging 17.7 carries. In games the Cardinals have lost by more than one score — which has been the case in four of the 10 games Conner has played this season — he’s averaging a mere 9.3 carries. The good news is that the Cardinals are only 4-point underdogs against the Bears in Chicago this weekend. The bad news is that Conner has to face a Bears defense that ranks third in DVOA against the run and is giving up just 66.2 rushing yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry to RBs. I’m slightly below consensus with my ranking of Conner, slotting him in as a high-end RB3.

I’m fading Javonte Williams this week. The last time Javonte averaged 4.0 yards per carry or better in a game was Oct. 22. Since Week 8, he’s averaged 3.4 yards per carry. Javonte has scored three touchdowns this year, with only one touchdown run. It’s not as if Javonte has been an unusable fantasy asset, however. During this seven-game stretch where he’s failed to average 4.0 yards per carry in any game, he’s nonetheless been RB24 in fantasy points per game. But Javonte has a brutal matchup against New England this week. The Patriots are having a dreadful season, but the one thing they do extremely well is stuff the run. New England’s run defense ranks No. 1 in DVOA, and the Pats are giving up just 3.3 yards per carry to RBs. On the bright side, Javonte usually chips in a little something as a pass catcher every week. He’s had at least two receptions in each of his last eight games. But Samaje Perine has been operating as Denver’s primary passing-down back, and if Javonte doesn’t make a significant contribution in the passing game this week, he might not put up many points.

Some people are under the impression that the season-ending injury to Keaton Mitchell is going to result in Gus Edwards having the sort of workload that Derrick Henry shouldered in 2019-2020. Maybe the Mitchell injury gives Edwards an additional 2-3 carries a game, but I think we’ll probably just see Justice Hill and Melvin Gordon splitting up the touches that would have gone to Mitchell. Before Mitchell became a thing, there was a 10-game stretch where Edwards had double-digit carries nine times. He averaged 12.5 carries and 53.2 rushing yards per game over that span. The yardage output was meh, but the touchdown output … *chef’s kiss*. Edwards punched in 10 touchdowns during that 10-game stretch. Bottom line: You’re getting basically the same Gus Edwards. The Mitchell injury probably isn’t going to mean a rocket ride for Edwards’ fantasy value. It’s going to be the same story: If you get a touchdown or two from Gus Edwards — and there’s always a pretty fair chance of that happening — you’re going to be pleased. If Gus Bus doesn’t get into the end zone, you’re going to be disappointed.

WIDE RECEIVERS

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It’s hard to figure out what to make of Drake London these days. His yardage totals in his last four games: 91, 8, 172 and 24. It shouldn’t be this hit or miss for a young receiver who’s so talented and plays on a team that has no other good wide receivers. I’m cautiously optimistic that the Falcons’ QB change from Desmond Ridder to Taylor Heinicke will help London since Heinicke is a more aggressive passer than Ridder. This week against the Colts, London will be running most of his routes against either of the Colts’ outside cornerbacks, rookies Jaylon Jones and Juju Brents. Those are winnable matchups for London.

The FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking for Jordan Addison was in WR4 range last week. That seemed way too low for a talented young receiver, so I was above consensus on Addison, but I understood the trepidation. Justin Jefferson had returned from injury the previous week, and the Vikings had a new starter at quarterback, Nick Mullens. I wasn’t overly concerned that Jefferson was going to make Addison disappear from the offense, and I knew that Mullens isn’t afraid to throw aggressively downfield. Addison smashed against the Bengals, putting up a 6-111-2 stat line. Naturally, Addison’s ECR has soared and currently sits at WR25. That seems like a slight overreaction. I have Addison ranked WR28, but I still think he’s very playable against a Detroit defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to WRs.

My enthusiasm for Ravens rookie Zay Flowers is waning. You’d think the season-ending injury to TE Mark Andrews would have meant an uptick in usage for Flowers, but that hasn’t been the case. Before the Andrews injury, Flowers was averaging 6.5 targets, 4.8 catches and 53.5 receiving yards per game. In the three games since the Andrews injury, Flowers has averaged 6.7 targets, 4.0 catches and 30.7 receiving yards. Flowers has produced 25 or fewer receiving yards in four of his last seven games, so the rookie’s floor has not been stable. Flowers’ matchup against the 49ers this week isn’t terrible — San Francisco has basically been a neutral matchup for WRs — but I wouldn’t be excited about starting him.

We’ve been conditioned to think of Diontae Johnson as a high-volume receiver who doesn’t score many touchdowns. Well, Johnson hasn’t had more than four catches in a game since Week 9, but he’s now had a TD catch in three straight games. Go figure. Johnson is averaging 6.7 targets and 46.4 receiving yards over his last seven games, so perhaps we should stop thinking of him as a target hog. But here’s a note of optimism for anyone thinking about starting Johnson this week. The Steelers are giving Mason Rudolph the start at quarterback. The last time Rudolph started at QB for the Steelers (Week 10 of the 2021 season), Johnson had a team-high 13 targets and finished with 7-83-0.

Dontayvion Wicks isn’t a bad stealth play this week. Christian Watson has been sidelined by a hamstring injury and wasn’t practicing as of Thursday. Nor was fellow WR Jayden Reed, who’s dealing with a toe injury. Wicks, a fifth-round rookie from Virginia, had 6-97-0 against the Buccaneers last week on a season-high seven targets. Wicks has been impressive this season, earning PFF’s 28th-highest grade among wide receivers. He could be in for a big role this week against the Panthers.

TIGHT ENDS

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Can you believe how deep the TE position has become? At this late date in the season, with star TE Mark Andrews out for the season and the uber-talented Kyle Pitts still being criminally misused, we’re nonetheless flush with fine options at the position. The Tier 1 guys are fantastic options, the Tier 2 guys are good enough to possibly be flex-worthy, the Tier 3 guys are solid plays, and the Tier 4 guys are acceptable streaming options. We’ve long tricked ourselves into believing we had depth at the TE position when we really didn’t. But now it feels like we’re truly entering a golden era at the position.

Dalton Kincaid investors are feeling panicky about the rookie tight end’s recent drop-off in production. With fellow Bills TE Dawson Knox sidelined by a wrist injury from Week 8 through Week 12, Knox averaged 6.2 catches and 56.2 receiving yards per game in Knox’s absence and was TE5 in fantasy points per game over that stretch. When Knox returned in Week 13, Kincaid had a disappointing 5-21-0 performance, but he had eight targets and a robust 88% route participation rate. Last Week, Kincaid had zero catches and only two targets. Bills QB Josh Allen threw only 15 passes in Buffalo’s evisceration of Dallas, but perhaps more concerning than Kincaid’s low target total was his 68% route participation rate, which was similar to his weekly route-participation rates early in the season when Knox was standing in the way of Kincaid’s rookie breakout. I still have Kincaid ranked in TE1 range, but I don’t know if we’ll get a smash game from the talented rookie this week, even against a Chargers defense that has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to TEs.

Hunter Henry is an appealing option this week, but his shareholders will have to monitor his status since Henry is dealing with an injury. Henry has been clicking with Patriots QB Bailey Zappe. Henry has produced 10-106-3 on 12 targets over the last two weeks. The veteran tight end nearly had a second straight two-touchdown game last week but had a TD catch negated by a penalty. Now, Henry gets a cushy matchup against a Denver defense that has been steamrolled by tight ends this season. The Broncos have allowed the most fantasy points, the most TD catches and the second-most receiving yards to TEs.

Dallas Goedert is one of the better pass-catching tight ends in the league, but I’m lukewarm on him this week. It’s less about Goedert than it is about Eagles QB Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia passing game as a whole. Over his first nine games, Hurts averaged 260.8 passing yards and 1.7 TD passes a game. In his last five games, Hurts has averaged 197.6 passing yards per game and 0.7 TD passes per game. The downturn in the Eagles’ passing game is troublesome for Goedert, particularly when WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith need to eat, and there isn’t enough food to go around. And unlike Hurts, Goedert doesn’t have “tush push” touchdowns to fall back on.

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NFL Tiers Travis Kelce Stefon Diggs Brandon Aiyuk Derrick Henry Breece Hall Saquon Barkley Justin Fields Zamir White Noah Brown Hunter Henry Tucker Kraft Jake Browning Baker Mayfield David Njoku Jaylen Waddle Patrick Mahomes Rashee Rice Rachaad White Josh Allen Jalen Hurts Lamar Jackson Brock Purdy Dak Prescott Tua Tagovailoa Kyler Murray Jared Goff Matthew Stafford Joe Flacco Jordan Love Trevor Lawrence Russell Wilson Geno Smith Gardner Minshew Nick Mullens Sam Howell Derek Carr Tommy DeVito Taylor Heinicke Trevor Siemian Aidan O’Connell Case Keenum Bailey Zappe Easton Stick Bryce Young Mason Rudolph Tyreek Hill Marquise Brown Ja’Marr Chase Jacoby Brissett Christian McCaffrey Kyren Williams Alvin Kamara James Cook Joe Mixon Raheem Mostert Jahmyr Gibbs Bijan Robinson Isiah Pacheco Jonathan Taylor Tony Pollard Travis Etienne Jr. Josh Jacobs Ezekiel Elliott David Montgomery Chuba Hubbard Kenneth Walker De’Von Achane Aaron Jones D’Andre Swift Ty Chandler Austin Ekeler James Conner Devin Singletary Javonte Williams Jerome Ford Jaylen Warren Najee Harris Gus Edwards Antonio Gibson D’Onta Foreman Tyjae Spears Chase Brown Roschon Johnson A.J. Dillon Tyler Allgeier Justice Hill Zach Charbonnet Jamaal Williams Jerick McKinnon Kareem Hunt Chris Rodriguez Jr. Khalil Herbert Rico Dowdle Clyde Edwards-Helaire Latavius Murray Rhamondre Stevenson Demario Douglas DeVante Parker Alexander Mattison Samaje Perine Keaton Mitchell Melvin Gordon CeeDee Lamb Amon-Ra St. Brown A.J. Brown Justin Jefferson Mike Evans Deebo Samuel D.J. Moore Cooper Kupp Michael Pittman DK Metcalf Chris Olave Puka Nacua Davante Adams Calvin Ridley DeVonta Smith Garrett Wilson DeAndre Hopkins Tee Higgins Amari Cooper Courtland Sutton Drake London Chris Godwin Jordan Addison Terry McLaurin Nico Collins Zay Flowers Josh Downs Adam Thielen Diontae Johnson Tyler Lockett Brandin Cooks Jaxon Smith-Njigba Jakobi Meyers Romeo Doubs Dontayvion Wicks Joshua Palmer Odell Beckham Jr. Jerry Jeudy Elijah Moore Rashid Shaheed Curtis Samuel Gabe Davis George Pickens Tyler Boyd Parker Washington Michael Wilson Jameson Williams Jonathan Mingo Wan’Dale Robinson Darius Slayton Malik Heath Jalin Hyatt Justin Watson Alec Pierce Tutu Atwell Darnell Mooney Rashod Bateman Treylon Burks Quentin Johnston Jahan Dotson Desmond Ridder Jaylon Jones Mark Andrews Christian Watson Jayden Reed Sam LaPorta Trey McBride T.J. Hockenson Evan Engram George Kittle Jake Ferguson Dalton Kincaid Cole Kmet Isaiah Likely Taysom Hill Dallas Goedert Pat Freiermuth Kyle Pitts Darren Waller Gerald Everett Dalton Schultz Cade Otton Tyler Higbee Tyler Conklin Chigoziem Okonkwo Tanner Hudson Logan Thomas Michael Mayer Adam Trautman Juwan Johnson Jonnu Smith Dawson Knox