Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings, Grades & Start/Sit Advice (2023)

Welcome to Week 16, friends. As always, we’re here to provide you with some fantasy football Quick Grades (or Start/Sit Grades, if you prefer) for the week.

We tapped into our consensus projections and rankings and Derek Brown’s weekly Primer to generate this week’s Quick Grades. See below for the results and accompanying notes.

• Fitz’s Tiers & Rankings
• Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
• Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
• Fantasy Football Trade Tools

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Week 16 Quarterback Start/Sit Grades

Jake Browning: Since Week 13, Browning has been the QB4 in fantasy points per game with weekly performances of QB4, QB3, and QB8. He has been studly in fantasy. Most of his production has been on underneath looks, but the Bengals are making it work. Since Week 13, among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he is second in yards per attempt, third in CPOE, and fourth in fantasy points per dropback, but he is 38th in aDOT and has the third-highest percentage of passing yards coming after the catch. The Steelers have fielded an average pass defense. Since Week 10, they sit at 17th in yards per attempt, 18th in CPOE, and have given up the 13th-highest passer rating. Over that span, they have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points via passing thanks to the sixth-most passing touchdowns allowed. Browning could continue his improbable run of strong fantasy starts this week. Week 16 Positional Value: QB2

Mason Rudolph: The last time we saw Rudolph with an extended run as the Steelers’ starter it was in 2019, when his cup of coffee lasted eight games. He averaged only 190.5 passing yards with 6.2 yards per attempt and a 10:8 passing touchdown to interception ratio. This matchup is glorious this week for Rudolph. Still, I don’t envision a scenario where the Steelers allow the emergency QB3 that they are turning to in desperation to chuck it like crazy. Rudolph will be a game manager who can turn in decent QB2 numbers this week. Since Week 10, Cincy has allowed the second-most passing yards per game and the third-highest yards per attempt and CPOE. Week 16 Positional Value: QB2

Easton Stick: Last week, Stick garbage-timed his way to a QB13 finish. While that helped fantasy managers in a pinch in Superflex formats, Stick shouldn’t be in your lineup unless you’re in a Superflex league. Over the last two weeks, his real-life quarterback play has been what we should expect from a long-time backup thrust into the starter’s chair. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 29th in CPOE, 19th in highly accurate throw rate, and 19th in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 10, Buffalo has allowed the lowest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest passer rating, and the 11th-lowest CPOE. It’s a brutal matchup. The Bills have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. Week 16 Positional Value: QB2

Gardner Minshew: Minshew is the QB23 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 weeks. All of Minshew’s peripherals line up with QB2 production. He is 25th in yards per attempt, 23rd in passer rating, and 34th in CPOE. Don’t expect much more than that from Minshew this week. Atlanta’s pass defense has improved. Since Week 10, they have ranked 15th in yards per attempt while holding passers the lowest CPOE and the fewest passing touchdowns. Week 16 Positional Value: QB2 / Sit

Taylor Heinicke: I don’t trust Arthur Smith at all. This lack of faith extends to the Falcon’s quarterback. Smith is flailing for answers right now, which includes the revolving door at quarterback. Heinicke has one uninspiring full game under his belt this season and two other small cups of coffee. I would not put it past Smith to bench Heinicke this week if he gets off to a slow start. Nothing is off the table, so I can’t play Heinicke this week. Before you say, “Oh, that will never happen,” you have seen the running back usage, right? You have seen the lack of usage of Kyle Pitts for most of the season, right? Never say never with this team. Week 16 Positional Value: Sit

Jared Goff: After a surprisingly strong game last week against Denver, Goff is now the QB12 in fantasy. He has been a QB1 in three of his last six games. Overall he has been playing damn good football this season, ranking eighth in yards per attempt, seventh in passer rating, and 10th in CPOE. This week for Goff boils down to how well he can perform against the blitz. Minnesota has been an improved pass defense, but they have some weaknesses that have been masked, with Brian Flores disguising coverages and bringing the blitz. Minnesota still leads the NFL in blitz rate (47.7%). Against the blitz, Goff has struggled, ranking 16th in yards per attempt and adjusted completion rate with the 12th-highest turnover-worthy play rate. Since Week 10, Minnesota has given up the 11th-lowest yards per attempt and the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns, but they have also allowed the eighth-highest CPOE and the third-highest adjusted completion rate. If Goff can hold up against the blitz and his offensive line can buy him time, he could carve up Minnesota like he did Denver. Week 16 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Nick Mullens: Last week, Mullens stepped in and performed quite well. He was the QB11 in fantasy passing for 303 yards with two scores and 9.1 yards per attempt. Mullens ranked fifth in CPOE, fourth in yards per attempt, and 11th in passer rating. He’s set for another strong outing in Week 16. Since Week 10, Detroit has allowed the 12th-most passing yards per game, the sixth-highest yard per attempt, the seventh-highest CPOE, and the sixth-most passing touchdowns. Week 16 Positional Value: Strong QB2 with low-end QB1 upside

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Week 16 Wide Receiver Start/Sit Grades

Tee Higgins: With Browning under center, Higgins has had a 14.2% target share, a 47.4% air-yard share, a 17.7 aDOT, and a 17.6% first-read share as the team’s downfield threat. If Chase is sidelined, Higgins could step up as the team’s WR1. Higgins has not been utilized in the red zone much across his last five games, with only three red zone targets. It’s been a season of feast or famine for Higgins with three games with at least 19.0 or higher PPR points, but he’s also finished as the WR47 or lower four times. Higgins could get shadowed by Joey Porter Jr. (45.5% catch rate and 64.9 passer rating). This week, but it’s possible he avoids it. Last week, before Michael Pittman left the game, Porter only followed him on 33% of his routes. Since Week 8, Porter has shadowed Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Ja’Marr Chase, and Marquise Brown on 50-89.5% of their routes, with only Chase surpassing 50 receiving yards in his coverage. Higgins’ range of outcomes this week is wide, but he could walk away from Week 16 with a nice stat line. Week 16 Positional Value: WR2/3

Tyler Boyd: With Browning chucking passes, Boyd has only seen a 12.3% target share with 1.66 YPRR and a 12.2% first-read share. Overall, Boyd is the WR53 in fantasy this season with only four games as a WR3 or better (WR34, WR17, WR10, WR31). Browning has been looking for Boyd inside the 20 with three red zone looks over his last three games. Add in that slot receivers have torched Pittsburgh, and Boyd becomes an interesting flex play in Week 16, especially if Chase misses this game. Since Week 9, Pittsburgh has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and receiving touchdowns to opposing slot receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: High upside flex

Diontae Johnson: Since his Week 7 return, Johnson has a 24.7% target share, a 43.4% air-yard share, 1.80 YPRR, and a 31.1% first-read share. Volume and touchdown luck have helped Johnson continue to remain strong in fantasy, with at least seven targets in six of his last eight games and a score in each of his last three outings. If Mason Rudolph can feed him league-average target quality, it should be another decent week for Johnson. Since Week 9, Cincinnati has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target and the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR3

George Pickens: With Johnson back in the huddle, Pickens has had an 18.8% target share, a 34.6% air-yard share, 1.54 YPRR, and a 22.3% first-read share. Pickens is tough to trust in the fantasy playoffs, with only one double-digit fantasy outing since Week 8. He also has zero red zone role with only one target inside the 20-yard line across his last six games. If you are forced to play Pickens, I get it, but in most formats, I’m sitting him. The lone bright spot is that the matchup is glowing this week. Since Week 9, Cincinnati has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target and the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR4/5

Gabe Davis: Davis has been the fantasy rollercoaster that we all expected entering this season. He is the WR51 in fantasy points per game with four top 15 WR finishes this season. The problem is that he has also finished outside the top 60 fantasy wide receivers in weekly scoring six times. The question weekly on whether or not to “Gabe Davis” is simple. Does the secondary he is facing struggle against deep passing? For the Chargers, the answer is a loud YES! Since Week 10, they have allowed the fourth-most deep passing touchdowns, the fifth-highest deep passer rating, and the eighth-highest deep-adjusted completion rate. Davis ranks 14th among wide receivers in deep targets and 23rd in red zone targets. Since Week 10, the Chargers have deployed single-high at the 11th-highest rate (57.1%). Against single-high, Davis is tied for the team lead in end-zone targets with five. Week 16 Positional Value: Boom potential WR4

Joshua Palmer: Last week, Palmer returned to the lineup with a 69.4% route run rate, a 12.5% target share, and a 20% first-read share. In his five games without Mike Williams in the lineup, Palmer has had a 17.2% target share, a 32.5% air-yard share, 2.61 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share. The volume and usage should be there this week, but there’s no reason to discuss his production because taking the step down from Justin Herbert to Easton Stick is massive. Palmer’s outlook improves from a volume perspective if Allen sits. Since Week 9, Buffalo has allowed the ninth-lowest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR4

Week 16 Running Back Start/Sit Grades

Bijan Robinson: So, we’re doing this again, huh, Arthur? Ok. Last week, Robinson played 58% of the snaps with eight touches and 14 total yards. I have no words at this point. In many instances, fantasy GMs have no other choice but to turn back to Robinson this week and hope for the best. This is not a Robinson problem. I know I shouldn’t have to clarify that, but here we are. Robinson has averaged 15.5 touches and 80.3 total yards as the RB20 in fantasy. He ranks eighth in weighted opportunities, 18th in carries, fourth in targets, and 31st in red zone touches. Yes, 31st in red zone touches. Robinson ranks seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. Robinson faces an Indy run defense that, since Week 10, has allowed the 10th-most rushing yards per game, the 12th-highest yards before contact per attempt, and the ninth-lowest stuff rate. Week 16 Positional Value: Stress Diarrhea-inducing RB2

Kenneth Walker: Walker is getting healthier, and it’s showing up on the field. He has played 56% of the snaps in each of the last two games, averaging 17 touches and 83 total yards. Over the last two weeks, he has had a 33% missed tackle forced per attempt rate while ranking third in missed tackles forced. The Tennessee run defense has been tough over the last few games. Since Week 10, they have had the fifth-highest stuff rate, allowing the 14th-lowest rushing yards per game, the ninth-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the fourth-lowest yards before contact per attempt. Walker is still a good bet for 15-20 touches with some pass-game work sprinkled in. Week 16 Positional Value: RB2

Derrick Henry: Henry is the RB16 in fantasy points per game, ranking 13th in opportunity share and weighted opportunities. Since Week 12, he has played anywhere from 40% to 64% of the snaps, averaging 19.8 touches and 64.3 total yards. Playing Henry with loads of confidence is a thing of the past. If a Titans’ game goes sideways and they find themselves trailing early, Henry’s snap share will ruin your day. It’s sad because Henry’s talent hasn’t fallen off. He ranks 14th in explosive run rate, 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 24th in yards after contact per attempt. If the Titans can keep this game close early and give Henry some volume, he could easily get rolling in Week 16. Since Week 10, Seattle has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate, the ninth-most rushing yards per game, and the 14th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: RB2

Tyjae Spears: Spears is a sneaky flex play this week. Over the last two weeks, he has averaged 59% of the snaps played with 11.5 touches and 77.5 total yards. Spears could easily lead the Titans’ backfield this week in production if the team finds itself down early. Spears ranks fifth in explosive run rates and ninth in yards after contact per attempt. He could see 12-15 touches in this game if the Titans’ are trailing 14-0 early. Since Week 10, Seattle has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate, the ninth-most rushing yards per game, and the 14th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: RB3

David Montgomery: Since his Week 10 return, Montgomery has been game script sensitive, playing anywhere from 27-62% of the snaps weekly while averaging 15.3 touches and 84.5 total yards. Montgomery is the RB10 in fantasy points per game, ranking 15th in carries and seventh in red zone touches. He has been quite dependable, scoring a touchdown in 73% of the games he has played in. Since Week 13, Montgomery has lost the red zone battle with Gibbs with seven touches versus Gibbs’ nine. At this juncture, Montgomery is the early down hammer for Detroit, and he’s been excellent in this role. He ranks ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 10th in yards after contact per attempt. Montgomery likely needs a score to pay off playing him this week. Minnesota remains a brick wall against backs. Since Week 10, they have allowed the lowest explosive run rate, the third-lowest rushing yards per game, and the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: RB2

Jahmyr Gibbs: Gibbs is the RB6 in fantasy and has been crushing it after a slow start. He has finished lower than RB14 in weekly scoring only twice since Week 7. Since Week 10, he has averaged 13 touches and 82.4 total yards while edging out Montgomery in red zone work (nine vs. seven). He ranks second in explosive run rate, 10th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 12th in yards after contact per attempt. Gibbs will need every ounce of tackle-breaking juice this week against Minny. Since Week 10, they have allowed the lowest explosive run rate, the third-lowest rushing yards per game, and the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. They have also stifled backs through the air, allowing the third-lowest yards per reception. Week 16 Positional Value: RB1/2

Ty Chandler: If you started Chandler last week, kudos. He likely led you to a Week 15 victory and is a major reason you’re reading this week’s Primer. Chandler played 81% of the snaps with 26 touches and 157 total yards to finish as the RB4 for the week. While the volume and production were amazing, his per-touch efficiency wasn’t great. Yes, he did have an 8.7% explosive run rate, but he also only tallied a 9% missed tackles forced per attempt rate and 2.0 yards after contact per attempt. Those are putrid tackle-breaking metrics. It matches what we’ve seen from him this season. Overall, he has had a 10% missed tackle rate and only 2.04 yards after contact per attempt. This is all to say that you should keep your expectations in check for Chandler this week against a tougher run defense. The volume will still be there, but it’s questionable at best if the production will be. Since Week 10, the Lions have had the sixth-highest stuff rate while also giving up the ninth-lowest missed tackles per attempt and the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: Volume driven RB2

Antonio Gibson: Anyone hoping for bell cow Gibson last week was probably massively disappointed as he played 45% of the snaps with nine touches and 35 total yards. Even if Brian Robinson is out again this week, Gibson will split work with Chris Rodriguez again. This game environment feels disgusting. If you’re looking at Gibson for a flex spot, there are plenty of other options this week in better game environments with similar or better upside. The Jets run defense has also improved over the last few weeks. Since Week 10, they have the 12th-best stuff rate while also allowing the eighth-lowest explosive run rate and the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: Sit

Breece Hall: If you moved on to Week 16, Hall was likely not the reason. Last week, he played only 40% of the snaps with seven touches and 18 total yards. He was pulled in last week’s blowout loss, but hopefully, this week, he delivers a better stat line. This game sets up well for the Jets to play with a lead and feed Hall. Hall is the RB19 in fantasy, ranking 16th in opportunity share and ninth in weighted opportunities. He is 30th in carries and second in targets among backs. Across his previous eight games, he averaged 17.1 touches and 76.8 total yards. He ranks 11th in yards per touch, second in evaded tackles, and 11th in yards created per touch. Hall should have a good bounce-back outing against a run defense that, since Week 9, has allowed the 11th-highest rushing touchdown rate, the 13th-most rushing yards per game, and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: RB2

Aaron Jones: Jones returned last week to play 48% of the snaps with 17 touches and 69 total yards. Jones still doesn’t look right from a tackle-breaking perspective. Last week, he didn’t force a single missed tackle and had only 1.38 yards after contact per attempt. At this point in the season, this is probably what we should expect from Jones. If he emerged from this game without any further dings, he could see a few more snaps this week, inching closer to the mid-50 % snap range. Since Week 10, Carolina has remained a team that can be run on with success as they have allowed the seventh-highest missed tackles per attempt, the 11th-highest rushing touchdown rate, and the 14th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Jones 53.8% zone last week). Week 16 Positional Value: RB2

Week 16 Tight End Start/Sit Grades

Tucker Kraft: Since assuming the starting job in Week 12, Kraft has been the TE11 in fantasy points per game with a 12.3% target share, 1.44 YPRR, and a 13.7% first-read share. His role has grown weekly. In Week 15, he had a 15.4% target share with 1.54 YPRR and a 20.7% first-read share. Since Week 11, Carolina has deployed single high on 59.1% of their defensive snaps (sixth-highest rate). Against single-high, Kraft has 1.44 YPRR. This is a tough matchup for Kraft. Carolina has given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 16 Positional Value: TE2

David Njoku: With Flacco, Njoku has had a 20.9% target share (leads the team), 2.02 YPRR, and a 19.1% first-read share. Since Week 7, Njoku has been the TE5 in fantasy. He has been a monster, with at least 26.4 PPR points in each of his last two games. Njoku is third among tight ends in red zone targets. Houston has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. Week 16 Positional Value: TE1

Dalton Schultz: Schultz is the TE11 in fantasy points per game, ranking 18th in deep targets and sixth in red zone looks among tight ends. He has seen a 14.7% target share, a 15.1% air-yard share, and a 15.2% first-read share with 1.67 YPRR. He has a terrible matchup this week. The Browns have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 16 Positional Value: TE2

Evan Engram: Engram is the TE6 in fantasy points per game with six red zone targets over his last seven games. Jacksonville has made it a point to get him the ball inside the 20-yard line lately. He has scored all three of his touchdowns this season over the last three games. Engram has a 20.8% target share, 1.57 YPRR, and a 22.8% first-read share. He should rip Tampa Bay in half. The Buccaneers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game and the fifth-highest receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 16 Positional Value: TE1

Cade Otton: Otton has been a TE2 with matchup-based streaming ability all season. He has performed well and posted four TE1 weeks in a favorable matchup. Well, this week’s matchup could lead to his fifth TE1 game. Otton has eight red zone targets across his last seven games, as the team has been getting him more involved near paydirt. Otton has a 12.2% target share, 0.98 YPRR, and an 11.7% first-read share. Jacksonville has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game and highest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 16 Positional Value: TE2 with TE1 upside

Trey McBride: Since Week 8, McBride has been the TE1 in fantasy, seeing a 28.3% target share, a 24.5% air-yard share, 2.54 YPRR, and a 34% first-read share. McBride is 12th in red zone targets among tight ends. Any way you slice it, McBride has been elite. He should keep rolling this week against a Bears’ defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 16 Positional Value: TE1

Cole Kmet: Kmet is the TE8 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in red zone targets and second in total touchdowns among tight ends. Since Week 10, Arizona has deployed two high at the highest rate in the NFL (70.8%). Against two high, Kmet has a 19.3% target share, 1.78 YPRR, and a 19.8% first-read share. Arizona has faced the second-fewest tight end targets per game, but they have allowed the 10th-highest yards per reception to the position. Week 16 Positional Value: TE1

Week 16 Defense / Special Teams Start/Sit Grades

Week 16 Kicker Start/Sit Grades