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Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Advice: Pickups to Target, Stash & Drop (Week 17)

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Advice: Pickups to Target, Stash & Drop (Week 17)

This is Championship Week in most fantasy leagues. If you’ve made it to the big game, congratulations!

With luck, you’re going into the title game at full strength and don’t need to hit the waiver wire one last time. But if you do need to make a final waiver claim (or two) in order to patch up a bare spot, we’ve got you covered. We have a full menu of free agents for your perusal.

We realize that some of you play all the way to the final whistle in Week 18. A small percentage of leagues hold championship games in Week 18, and some leagues have a two-week championship, with Week 17 and Week 18 both counting toward final results. We’re not going to abandon those of you with skin in the game in Week 18. We’ll have a waiver column next week, too.

Here are the waiver options we like best for Week 17 …

Grade: C+

Rostership percentages are based on Yahoo leagues. Recommended FAAB bids are based on a $100 budget.

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Advice

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Rankings

Waiver Wire Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ – Expert Consensus Rankings

RUNNING BACKS

Khalil Herbert (CHI): 45% rostered

  • Next Opponents: ATL, @GB
  • True value: $9
  • Desperate need: $17
  • Budget-minded: $5

Analysis: The Bears have deployed their running backs in unpredictable ways, but it appears that Herbert has retaken the lead in the Chicago backfield. With D’Onta Foreman missing Week 16 due to personal matters, Herbert had a 51% snap share for the Bears and finished with 20-112-1 rushing and 1-9-0 receiving in the Bears’ 27-16 win over the Cardinals. It’s not clear whether Foreman will be back for Week 17, but Herbert will probably play a prominent role in the Bears’ offensive gameplan vs. the Falcons, whose run defense was tough early in the season but hasn’t been as stout since losing DT Grady Jarrett to a torn ACL in late October.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC): 36% rostered

  • Next Opponents: CIN, @LAC
  • True value: $8
  • Desperate need: $16
  • Budget-minded: $5

Analysis: Isiah Pacheco left the Chiefs Christmas Day loss to the Raiders with a concussion, and Jerick McKinnon is on injured reserve. The chances of Pacheco clearing the concussion protocol are diminished since Kansas City has only five days between games. I’m not going to try to sell you on Edwards-Helaire’s talent, but CEH could be in for a big workload vs. a Bengals run defense that ranks 29th in DVOA.

Zamir White (LV): 30% rostered

  • Next Opponents: @IND, DEN
  • True value: $7
  • Desperate need: $13
  • Budget-minded: $4

Analysis: Will Raiders RB Josh Jacobs miss a third straight game with a quad injury? If we knew Jacobs would be out, White would be the player on whom to spend the rest of your FAAB money. Operating in a leading role in Weeks 15-16, White had a 17-69-1 rushing day against the Chargers and a 22-145-0 rushing day against the Chiefs, making him the RB12 and RB15 in half-point PPR scoring the last two weeks. It’s possible Jacobs comes back this week and White returns to a backup role. But if Jacobs doesn’t come back, White will get a big Week 17 workload against a Colts defense that ranks 24th in DVOA against the run and has allowed the third-most fantasy points to RBs.

Tyjae Spears (TEN): 45% rostered

  • Next Opponents: @HOU, JAX
  • True value: $6
  • Desperate need: $11
  • Budget-minded: $3

Analysis: Derrick Henry‘s role as the Titans’ early-down back is unquestioned, but Spears has played more than half of Tennessee’s offensive snaps in four consecutive games. The rookie’s carry totals over that stretch: 16, 7, 9 and 9. Spears also has 16 receptions over his last four games and has been RB21 in half-point PPR scoring over that span. With a neutral matchup against the Texans this week, Spears could be a solid fill-in option if you need one.

Roschon Johnson (CHI): 26% rostered

  • Next Opponents: ATL, @GB
  • True value: $4
  • Desperate need: $7
  • Budget-minded: $2

Analysis: If you can’t get your hands on Khalil Herbert this week, Roschon isn’t a bad Plan B. It was Herbert who had the 100-yard rushing day against the Cardinals on Sunday, but Herbert only outsnapped Roschon 36-32. The rookie from the University of Texas finished with 9-37-0 rushing and 3-16 receiving vs. Arizona. Chicago’s deployment of its RBs will be less predictable this week against Atlanta if Bears RB D’Onta Foreman is back after missing Week 16 for personal reasons, but Roschon would still be a good bet for 6-12 touches.

Justice Hill (BAL): 20% rostered

  • Next Opponents: MIA, PIT
  • True value: $4
  • Desperate need: $7
  • Budget-minded: $2

Analysis: The season-ending injury to Keaton Mitchell has made Justice Hill fantasy-viable once again. Hill played 62% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps in their Christmas Night upset of the 49ers and had 10-26-0 rushing and 3-31-0 receiving. The touches that Mitchell was getting will most likely go to Hill rather than to Gus Edwards, whose early-down and goal-line role is clearly defined. Hill’s usage gives him flex-worthiness even in a tough Week 17 matchup against a Miami defense that’s played very well over the last two months.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Rashid Shaheed (NO): 44% rostered

  • Next Opponents: @TB, ATL
  • True value: $4
  • Desperate need: $7
  • Budget-minded: $1

Analysis: Coming off a 5-70-1 performance against the Rams, Shaheed will once again operate as the Saints No. 2 receiver behind Chris Olave in a good matchup against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has given up a league-high 2,923 receiving yards and the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Joshua Palmer (LAC): 46% rostered

  • Next Opponents: @NYG, @SF
  • True value: $4
  • Desperate need: $7
  • Budget-minded: $1

Analysis: Keenan Allen has missed the Chargers’ last two games with what’s been described as a significant heel injury. Palmer has been WR19 in half-point PPR scoring the last two weeks. He played 93% of the Chargers’ offensive snaps against the Bills on Saturday and had 5-47-0 on eight targets. Even if Allen returns this week, Palmer will be a reasonable fantasy option in a matchup against a Giants defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to WRs. Easton Stick hasn’t been terrible since taking over at quarterback for the injured Justin Herbert, so Chargers pass catchers are still fantasy-viable.

K.J. Osborn (MIN): 16% rostered

  • Next Opponents: GB, @DET
  • True value: $3
  • Desperate need: $5
  • Budget-minded: $1

Analysis: Here’s an intriguing stealth play for Week 17. Jordan Addison left the Vikings’ Week 16 game against the Lions with an ankle injury, and tight end T.J. Hockenson tore his ACL. If Addison is out in Week 17, Osborn will get a full complement of snaps against a Green Bay pass defense that has been completely blowtorched by the Buccaneers and Panthers the last two weeks. I’ll have Osborn ranked as a low-end WR3 this week if indeed Addison ruled out.

Curtis Samuel (WSH): 40% rostered

  • Next Opponents: SF, DAL
  • True value: $3
  • Desperate need: $5
  • Budget-minded: $1

Analysis: Samuel had only one catch for 16 yards against the Jets on Sunday, but the Jets have been a nightmarish matchup for wide receivers all season. Before being held in check by the Jets, Samuel had amassed 18-206-2 receiving over his previous three games. His matchup against the 49ers isn’t great, but by no means is a prohibitive matchup either. If Jacoby Brissett is named Washington’s starting QB for Week 17, Samuel will be flex-worthy this week. If the Commanders stick with the struggling Sam Howell at quarterback, don’t put Samuel in your starting lineup.

Noah Brown (HOU): 47% rostered

  • Next Opponents: TEN, @IND
  • True value: $3
  • Desperate need: $5
  • Budget-minded: $1

Analysis: Brown’s Week 17 fantasy value depends largely on the status of C.J. Stroud. If the Texans’ sensational rookie QB is able to return from a concussion that has kept him out of action for two games, Brown becomes an appealing option this week against the Titans and their decimated defensive backfield. But if Stroud misses another week, Brown will be on the fringe of flex-worthiness. Brown had 8-82-1 on 11 targets in Week 15. Stroud was out of the lineup that week, but so was Texans WR Nico Collins. With Collins back in Week 16, Brown had 3-38-0 on seven targets vs. the Browns.

Demario Douglas (NE): 21% rostered

  • Next Opponents: @BUF, NYJ
  • True value: $2
  • Desperate need: $3
  • Budget-minded: $0

Analysis: The sixth-round rookie has become New England’s No. 1 receiver. “Pop,” as he’s affectionately known, had 5-74-0 on eight targets in the Patriots’ Christmas Eve win over the Broncos. Douglas has a tricky but playable Week 17 matchup against the Bills. He had 4-54-0 against Buffalo back in Week 6.

Demarcus Robinson (LAR): 10% rostered

  • Next Opponents: @NYG, @SF
  • True value: $2
  • Desperate need: $3
  • Budget-minded: $0

Analysis: An improbable late-season riser, Robinson has now scored a touchdown in four straight games. He’s had 15-227-4 on 24 targets over that stretch, making him WR9 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring since Week 13. There’s no guarantee Robinson will get a lot of targets against the Giants this week with WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua around. Robinson’s target totals over his four-game TD streak: 5, 10, 3 and 6. But Robinson seems to have established good chemistry with Rams QB Matthew Stafford, and the Giants present a favorable matchup.

QUARTERBACKS

Nick Mullens (MIN): 13% rostered

  • Next Opponents: GB, @DET
  • True value: $5
  • Desperate need: $9
  • Budget-minded: $2

Analysis: This is not an endorsement of Mullens as a quarterback. He is a turnover waiting to happen. Mullens had four interceptions against the Lions on Sunday, and there were some other interception-worthy throws that the Lions weren’t able to pluck. But Mullens throws downfield without a conscience, and that’s not a bad thing for his fantasy investors. Over the last two weeks, Mullens has thrown for 714 yards and four touchdowns. Against Detroit, Mullens averaged 11.4 yards per pass attempt and has an 11.1% interception percentage. Wow. Just … wow. This week, Mullens gets a juicy matchup against the Packers, who have given up a combined 693 passing yards and six TD passes to Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young over the last two weeks. The only real risk here is that Mullens could get benched if he goes on another interception spree.

Derek Carr (NO): 39% rostered

  • Next Opponents: @TB, ATL
  • True value: $2
  • Desperate need: $3
  • Budget-minded: $1

Analysis: Carr threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns against the Rams in Week 16, but much of that production came in garbage time. Carr’s play has been uneven this season — and that’s a generous description. But he has a favorable matchup this week against a Buccaneers defense that has yielded the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and the Saints have struggled to run the ball, so they’ll probably have little choice but to lean on their passing game.

Joe Flacco (CLE): 33% rostered

  • Next Opponents: NYJ, @CIN
  • True value: $2
  • Desperate need: $3
  • Budget-minded: $1

Analysis: I’d love to be higher on Flacco, who’s been QB3 in fantasy scoring since taking over as the Browns’ starting QB in Week 13. Over his four games as a starter this season, Flacco has thrown for 1,307 yards and 10 touchdowns. He’s had at least 42 pass attempts in every start. Flacco has also thrown seven interceptions — the tax he’s paid for being such an aggressive downfield passer. The rub for Week 17 is that Flacco has a hellish matchup against the Jets, who have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season. The Jets have allowed 16 TD passes, second-fewest in the league, and are allowing only 6.0 yards per pass attempt, third-fewest in the league. Flacco could still put up a big yardage total this week, but the nasty matchup makes for a very unstable floor.

Gardner Minshew (IND): 31% rostered

  • Next Opponents: LV, HOU
  • True value: $2
  • Desperate need: $3
  • Budget-minded: $1

Analysis: Minshew scored only 10.1 fantasy points against the Falcons on Sunday, but it was the first time since the Colts’ Week 11 bye that Minshew hadn’t produced at least 15 fantasy points. No doubt the absence of Michael Pittman, the Colts’ best receiver, had something to do with Minshew’s struggles against the Falcons. Pittman cleared concussion protocol last week but was also dealing with a shoulder injury, so he was a last-minute scratch. The guess here is that he’s back for Week 17, so Minshew is playable in a neutral home matchup vs. the Raiders.

Jake Browning (CIN): 45% rostered

  • Next Opponents: @KC, CLE
  • True value: $1
  • Desperate need: $2
  • Budget-minded: $0

Analysis: Browning has averaged 322 passing yards over his last four games, but he threw three interceptions in a Week 16 loss to the Steelers and looked like a backup-caliber quarterback for the first time since taking over for the injured Joe Burrow. Browning is likely to be without start WR Ja’Marr Chase once again this week, and he has an unappealing matchup against the Chiefs, who rank fifth in DVOA against the pass and have given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to QBs.

TIGHT ENDS

Gerald Everett (LAC): 42% rostered

  • Next Opponents: @DEN, KC
  • True value: $4
  • Desperate need: $7
  • Budget-minded: $1

Analysis: Everett has caught at least four passes in each of his last five games. Strangely, he’s had somewhere from 39 to 44 receiving yards in every game during that stretch. Everett might be able to do better in the yardage department this week against a Denver defense that has yielded the most fantasy points to tight ends this season. The Broncos have allowed 116 catches, 998 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns to TEs. If the Chargers are once again without injured WR Keenan Allen (heel), Everett should see a half-dozen targets at minimum.

Tucker Kraft (GB): 19% rostered

  • Next Opponents: @MIN, CHI
  • True value: $3
  • Desperate need: $5
  • Budget-minded: $1

Analysis: Kraft’s stat lines over his last three games: 4-64-0, 4-57-1 and 4-60-0. Packers TE Luke Musgrave has been out with a lacerated kidney and probably won’t be back for this week’s game against the Vikings. Packers WRs Christian Watson (hamstring), Jayden Reed (toe) and Dontayvion Wicks (chest) are also dealing with injuries, enhancing Kraft’s target outlook.

Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN): 32% rostered

  • Next Opponents: @HOU, JAX
  • True value: $2
  • Desperate need: $3
  • Budget-minded: $1

Analysis: Okonkwo is coming off his best game of the season, with a season-high six catches for 63 yards and a touchdown (his first of the year) against the Seahawks. He gets a favorable Week 17 matchup against the Texans, who have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to TEs.

Cade Otton (TB): 32% rostered

  • Next Opponents: NO, @CAR
  • True value: $1
  • Desperate need: $2
  • Budget-minded: $0

Analysis: The Saints were a tough matchup for tight ends early in the season, but they’ve been getting roughed up by TEs for the last two months. Otton has only had 5-60-1 receiving over his last four games, but the favorable matchup makes him a viable Week 17 streamer for those who desperately need to fill a hole at the position.

DEFENSES

Chicago Bears: 33% rostered

  • Next Opponents: ATL, @GB
  • True value: $2
  • Desperate need: $3
  • Budget-minded: $1

Analysis: Since Week 11, the Bears’ defense has ranked third in fantasy scoring. Chicago gets a favorable home matchup this week against Atlanta, a dome team from the Deep South traveling to the chilly Midwest for an outdoor game likely to be played in 30-degree weather.

Atlanta Falcons: 33% rostered

  • Next Opponents: @CHI, @NO
  • True value: $1
  • Desperate need: $2
  • Budget-minded: $0

Analysis: It’s never a bad idea to start a fantasy defense against Bears QB Justin Fields. There’s no denying Fields’ playmaking ability, but he’s been sacked 36 times and has thrown nine interceptions in 11 starts this season. Fields absorbed an NFL-high 55 sacks last year. The Atlanta defense had produced double-digit fantasy points in three of its last five games.

Las Vegas Raiders: 13% rostered

  • Next Opponents: @IND, DEN
  • True value: $1
  • Desperate need: $2
  • Budget-minded: $0

Analysis: The Raiders’ defense has averaged almost 20 fantasy points over its last three games. Las Vegas gets a Week 17 matchup against Indianapolis, which could muster only 10 points against Atlanta in Week 16.

Indianapolis Colts: 49% rostered

  • Next Opponents: LV, HOU
  • True value: $1
  • Desperate need: $2
  • Budget-minded: $0

Analysis: The Colts are fifth in defensive fantasy scoring, averaging 8.8 fantasy points per game. They get a favorable Week 17 matchup against fourth-round rookie QB Aidan O’Connell and the Raiders.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 41% rostered

  • Next Opponents: CAR, @TEN
  • True value: $1
  • Desperate need: $2
  • Budget-minded: $0

Analysis: The Jaguars ranked fifth in defensive fantasy scoring before their Week 9 bye. Since Week 10, the Jaguars have been 27th in defensive fantasy scoring. But this is all about matchup. The Jags face the Panthers, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to team defenses. Carolina QB Bryce Young had gone four straight games without throwing a touchdown pass before throwing two against the Packers in Week 16. Young has been sacked 53 times and has thrown nine interceptions.

Houston Texans: 39% rostered

  • Next Opponents: TEN, @IND
  • True value: $1
  • Desperate need: $2
  • Budget-minded: $0

Analysis: It’s not clear whether Ryan Tannehill or Will Levis will get the start at quarterback for the Titans this week, but the Texans’ defense is a viable play regardless of whether Levis (ankle) is able to play. The Texans are tied for 16th in defensive fantasy scoring, and the Titans gave allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 35% rostered

  • Next Opponents: NO, @CAR
  • True value: $1
  • Desperate need: $2
  • Budget-minded: $0

Analysis: The Tampa Bay defense scored 16 fantasy points against the Jaguars in Week 16, and the Buccaneers now get a pretty good matchup against Derek Carr and the Saints. Carr has thrown an interception in four of his last five games.

Los Angeles Rams: 20% rostered

  • Next Opponents: @NYG, @SF
  • True value: $1
  • Desperate need: $1
  • Budget-minded: $0

Analysis: The Rams’ defense hasn’t scored more than seven fantasy points in a game since Week 9, but the Rams have a Week 17 date with the Giants, who are giving up a league-high 12.3 fantasy points per game to the Giants.

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KICKERS

Matt Gay (IND): 35% rostered

  • Next Opponents: LV, HOU
  • True value: $1
  • Desperate need: $1
  • Budget-minded: $0

Analysis: The normally steady Gay missed three field goals and an extra point in Weeks 14-15, but a hip injury may have had something to do with Gay’s inaccuracy. He made his only two kicks in Week 16 — an extra point and a 33-yard field goal — and Gay gets a decent Week 17 matchup against the Raiders. He’ll also be kicking in a dome. Make no mistake: Getting a weatherproof matchup with your kicker is no small thing this time of year.

Will Lutz (DEN): 22% rostered

  • Next Opponents: LAC, @LV
  • True value: $1
  • Desperate need: $1
  • Budget-minded: $0

Analysis: Lutz has made only three field goals over his last four games, but he gets a favorable home matchup against the Chargers this week. The Chargers have given up at least 24 points in three consecutive games, including their epic 63-21 loss at the hands of the Raiders in Week 15.

Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU): 3% rostered

  • Next Opponents: TEN, @IND
  • True value: $1
  • Desperate need: $1
  • Budget-minded: $0

Analysis: Fairbairn would be atop the kicker list this week if we knew for certain that Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud would be able to return from a concussion that’s kept him sidelined the last two weeks. Fairbairn Is averaging 9.1 fantasy points per game, drilling 22-of-23 field goals and 17-of-17 extra points in the 10 games he’s played. Fairbairn gets a nice Week 17 matchup against the Titans, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to kickers.

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