If you’re reading this, chances are you’ve reached the semifinals of your league’s playoffs. Huzzah!
Congratulations on making it this far. Let’s be honest, though: No one remembers the semifinalists. Maybe you’ve clinched a money spot, which is certainly nice. But a third-place check isn’t what you have on your mind these days. You’re two wins away from a trophy.
Is your lineup set for the stretch run, or could you use upgrades, patches and streamers? If you’re still shopping the waiver wire at this late date, we’ve got you covered. We’re like the big-box store that stays open until early Christmas Eve.
All season long, we’ve been giving you not only pickup recommendations but also drop recommendations. With only two weeks left, we’re done with the drop advice. The time for churning the bottom of your roster is over. This is the endgame. The future is now.
Are you ready for Week 16, friends? Glory beckons. Let’s do this.
(Please note that Ty Chandler is rostered in 52% of Yahoo leagues and is therefore ineligible for inclusion in this article.)
Grade: C
Rostership percentages are based on Yahoo leagues. Recommended FAAB bids are based on a $100 budget.
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RUNNING BACKS
Written by Bo McBrayer
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC): 40% rostered
- Next Opponents: LV, CIN, @LAC
- True value: $10
- Desperate need: $17
- Budget-minded: $6
Analysis: While both Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon were fantasy-relevant on Sunday, it was the first-round pick from LSU who dominated touches against the Patriots. CEH turned his 17 touches into 101 yards and gashed New England through the air. Believe it or not, Edwards-Helaire has a great chance to help you win your fantasy league with a soft remaining schedule and a role to die for in Isiah Pacheco‘s absence.
Zamir White (LV): 15% rostered
- Next Opponents: @KC, @IND, DEN
- True value: $8
- Desperate need: $14
- Budget-minded: $4
Analysis: White was a nice plug-in when Josh Jacobs was a late scratch last Thursday. White earned 21 touches and compiled 85 scrimmage yards with a touchdown in the Raiders’ 63-21 thumping of the Chargers. The very obvious play is to try to block a Jacobs manager from grabbing a handcuff in the fantasy playoffs. There isn’t much value with White if Jacobs is tracking toward suiting up in Week 16.
Jerick McKinnon (KC): 41% rostered
- Next Opponents: LV, CIN, @LAC
- True value: $6
- Desperate need: $10
- Budget-minded: $2
Analysis: Despite only receiving seven touches to Clyde Edwards-Helaire‘s 17, McKinnon had a touchdown catch and was credited with a passing touchdown to Rashee Rice on a shovel pass. The Chiefs’ remaining schedule is very favorable to RBs. It will require less FAAB to acquire McKinnon than to land CEH anyway, with McKinnon’s role likely not changing if Isiah Pacheco comes back from a shoulder injury this week.
Tyjae Spears (TEN): 45% rostered
- Next Opponents: SEA, @HOU, JAX
- True value: $6
- Desperate need: $10
- Budget-minded: $2
Analysis: Spears earned 10 touches in Week 15, but Houston’s defense completely shut down the Tennessee running game. The rookie from Tulane is a home run threat every time he touches the ball and is a nice complement to Derrick Henry. His semifinal matchup with the Seahawks, the fifth-worst team at defending RBs, makes Spears an intriguing buy-low if he’s available.
Chase Brown (CIN): 20% rostered
- Next Opponents: @PIT, @KC, CLE
- True value: $5
- Desperate need: $9
- Budget-minded: $2
Analysis: The Bengals have gotten into a groove with Jake Browning at quarterback and have won three games in a row. One parallel development has been Brown’s expanding role behind Joe Mixon. The rookie’s ability as a receiver has not gone unnoticed, and he’s a bigger, more physical player than Trayveon Williams. Cincinnati has a good one here, and it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if he continued to earn more looks down the stretch.
Trey Sermon (IND): 0% rostered
- Next Opponents: @ATL, LV, HOU
- True value: $4
- Desperate need: $7
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Sermon has bounced around various practice squads since he washed out of San Francisco. RB attrition has been especially brutal for the Colts. Zack Moss left Sunday’s game, and it was Sermon who picked up the musket, chewing up 88 rushing yards on 17 carries. Jonathan Taylor‘s return from thumb surgery is looming, so this might be much ado about nothing. Sermon is not a strong receiver, nor does he endear himself to coaches in pass protection. Tyler Goodson was also effective in Week 15 and might squeeze Sermon out of the picture if Taylor returns for a matchup with the Falcons on Christmas Eve.
Justice Hill (BAL): 13% rostered
- Next Opponents: @SF, MIA, PIT
- True value: $2
- Desperate need: $4
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: The gruesome leg injury sustained by Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell on Sunday night will mean a bigger role for Hill down the stretch. Hill had a little bit of early-season value, hitting double digits in fantasy points (0.5 PPR) in two of Baltimore’s first five games. But Hill is destined to share work with Gus Edwards, and the Ravens have a difficult Week 16 matchup against the 49ers. Hill is probably only worth RB2 or flex consideration in the deepest of leagues.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Written by Derek Brown
Tyler Boyd (CIN): 49% rostered
- Next Opponents: @PIT, @KC, CLE
- True value: $3
- Desperate need: $6
- Budget-minded: $2
Analysis: Boyd has been irrelevant for most of the season and only drew an 11.9% target share last week, but he’s primed to see more looks this week if Ja’Marr Chase is limited or out. Chase’s Week 16 status is unknown after he sustained a shoulder injury last week. If Boyd slides into the WR2 role for Cincinnati over the next two games, he’ll flirt with WR3 value against two secondaries that haven’t defended slot receivers well. Since Week 9, Pittsburgh and Kansas City, respectively, have allowed the fifth-most and the ninth-most PPR points per target to opposing slot receivers (per Fantasy Points Data).
Noah Brown (HOU): 40% rostered
- Next Opponents: CLE, TEN, @IND
- True value: $2
- Desperate need: $4
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Brown came back to life in Week 15 after a few down games since his return from injury. Against the Titans on Sunday, Brown handled a 30.5% target share, finishing with 82 receiving yards and a score. He has a tough Week 16 matchup with the Browns, who since Week 9 have allowed the third-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers (per Fantasy Points Data). His next two opponents after the Browns are more attractive, with a rematch engagement with Tennessee and then the Colts (ninth-most PPR points per target allowed since Week 9).
Joshua Palmer (LAC): 29% rostered
- Next Opponents: BUF, @DEN, KC
- True value: $2
- Desperate need: $4
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Palmer returned to the lineup last week to finish with a 12.5% target share while playing 72% of the snaps. He made the most of his limited target volume, finishing with 113 receiving yards and a score. We should expect his snap count to grow in Week 16, assuming he escaped last week’s game without any setbacks. Palmer could be the Bolts’ WR1 this week if Keenan Allen misses a second straight game. The matchup on paper isn’t favorable this week. Since Week 9, Buffalo has allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers (per Fantasy Points Data). Palmer will have WR3/4 value this week.
Dontayvion Wicks (GB): 3% rostered
- Next Opponents: @CAR, @MIN, CHI
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Wicks entered last week with a questionable tag, as he is dealing with an ankle issue, but you would never know that from his Week 15 performance. He turned his 17.9% target share into a team-leading 97 receiving yards. Wicks has been productive when called upon this year to play the “Christian Watson role.” I doubt we will see Watson this week after he didn’t practice at all last week, so Wicks has at least one more week of flex viability. He finds himself on the low end of that spectrum this week against a Panthers secondary that, since Week 9, has allowed the ninth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers (per Fantasy Points Data).
Curtis Samuel (WAS): 37% rostered
- Next Opponents: @NYJ, SF, DAL
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Samuel has been on a tear lately. In Week 15, he followed up two strong games with another fantastic outing. He had a 25% target share with 41 receiving yards and two scores. The sad thing is that Samuel’s hot streak will likely be put to a halt in Week 16. Over the next two weeks, he faces the Jets and 49ers, who have allowed the 10th-fewest and seventh-fewest PPR points per target, respectively (per Fantasy Points Data). Samuel will still get fed solid volume, but it’s questionable what he’ll be able to do with it. He’s a low-end flex for the next two weeks.
Jameson Williams (DET): 22% rostered
- Next Opponents: @MIN, @DAL, MIN
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Williams is coming off a season-high 68% snap share with a 20.5% target share. The Lions have been talking about getting Williams more involved for the last few weeks, so it’s nice to see it finally happen. His seven targets last week were also a season high. The Vikings’ secondary has been holding its own, but with the Lions likely to have difficulty running the ball in Week 16, Williams will be needed. Since Week 8, the Vikings have been 14th in receiving yards per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers (per Fantasy Points Data).
Rashid Shaheed (NO): 47% rostered
- Next Opponents: @LAR, @TB, ATL
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Last week, Shaheed had the perfect setup for a possible smash game. Chris Olave was out with an ankle injury, leaving Shaheed as the team’s de facto WR1, but Derek Carr spread the ball around. Shaheed finished the game with a 14.2% target share and 36 receiving yards. That is a far cry from the spike weeks that we have seen from him earlier this season. Shaheed will have another chance to lead the way, possibly in Week 16 if Olave can’t go. The Rams’ defense has been tough, but their strength has been against the run. If New Orleans wants to move the ball with regularity in Week 16, it will have to be through the air. Hopefully, Shaheed’s volume bounces back. If it does, he could be a wonderful flex with upside.
Darius Slayton (NYG): 2% rostered
- Next Opponents: @PHI, LAR, PHI
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Slayton has been irrelevant for most of the season, but he could be flex-worthy in Week 16 if you’re in a pinch. Last week, Tommy Cutlets fed him a 21% target share, as Slayton tied for the team-lead in receptions and led the way with 63 receiving yards. Slayton has shown a propensity for big plays throughout his career, and in Week 16 he could be set for another strong performance. Philly’s secondary has been an eyesore this season, allowing the eighth-most PPR points per target and the 11th-most receiving yards per game since Week 8 (per Fantasy Points Data). “Big Play” Slayton could come through in Week 16 as a flex hero.
Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG): 12% rostered
- Next Opponents: @PHI, LAR, PHI
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Robinson is coming off a down game with only a 10.5% target share and 25 scoreless receiving yards, but he could easily bounce back in Week 16. In Week 4, he had a 33.3% target share and a 45.5% first-read share, so the upside is there for another big game. Tommy DeVito should look to pepper Robinson against an Eagles secondary that since Week 8 has allowed the third-most PPR points per target to slot receivers (per Fantasy Points Data).
QUARTERBACKS
Written by Bo McBrayer
Gardner Minshew (IND): 25% rostered
- Next Opponents: @ATL, LV, HOU
- True value: $4
- Desperate need: $7
- Budget-minded: $2
Analysis: Ever the pleasant surprise, Minshew tossed three touchdown passes against the Steelers on Sunday. Top WR Michael Pittman left the game with a concussion in the first half, making Minshew’s exploits all the more impressive. The Falcons have a stout run defense, but they have struggled defending the pass this season. A one-week moonlighting role for a berth in the fantasy championship round is a perfect place to stream Minshew Mania.
Jake Browning (CIN): 47% rostered
- Next Opponents: @PIT, @KC, CLE
- True value: $3
- Desperate need: $6
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Until Sunday, I was ready to stream a different QB in Week 16, with T.J. Watt and the Steelers looming for the Bengals. But Browning has been prolific for three weeks running, while Pittsburgh has been embarrassed in three consecutive games. Browning put up a modest 14.98 fantasy points against the Steelers in Week 12, so the QB1 upside we’ve been enjoying might come to an end. But Browning has been a pretty reliable source of fantasy points since taking over for the injured Joe Burrow.
Joe Flacco (CLE): 24% rostered
- Next Opponents: @HOU, NYJ, @CIN
- True value: $2
- Desperate need: $4
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Even with three mind-numbing interceptions on Sunday, Flacco diced up the Bears defense for 374 yards and two touchdowns. It was his third start this season and his third game with 20 or more fantasy points. Houston has had an opportunistic defense under DeMeco Ryans, but the Texans are far from a bad matchup. Flacco has perhaps the safest floor of any Week 16 streaming option.
Derek Carr (NO): 39% rostered
- Next Opponents: @LAR, @TB, ATL
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: He finally did it. For the first time since Week 9 and fourth time this season, Carr surpassed 20 fantasy points on Sunday versus the Giants. He accomplished this without top WR Chris Olave, which bodes well for the Saints’ final three games this season. All three opponents have pass-funnel defenses, so Carr will likely need to drop back more often to keep his team in contention to win the NFC South.
TIGHT ENDS
Written by Derek Brown
Hunter Henry (NE): 24% rostered
- Next Opponents: @DEN, @BUF, NYJ
- True value: $3
- Desperate need: $6
- Budget-minded: $2
Analysis: “Here I come to save the day!” Henry has pulled off his best Mighty Mouse impression in the last two weeks as the unsung hero for TE-needy fantasy teams. He’s had a 20.3% target share over the last two games, averaging five grabs and 53 receiving yards while scoring three touchdowns. Henry should continue this improbable run in Week 16 against THE best matchup for tight ends all season in the Broncos. Denver has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game and second-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Tucker Kraft (GB): 10% rostered
- Next Opponents: @CAR, @MIN, CHI
- True value: $2
- Desperate need: $4
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Kraft continues to stack good games together as the starting tight end for the Packers. Last week, he finished with a 15.3% target share and 57 receiving yards with a touchdown. This will likely culminate in his third TE1 performance since assuming the starting job in Week 12. His upcoming matchups aren’t fantastic, but his role has been solidified in this passing attack, and it only takes a receiving touchdown to put him in the TE1 conversation weekly. Kraft is a talented player on the rise.
Gerald Everett (LAC): 44% rostered
- Next Opponents: BUF, @DEN, KC
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: It took the entire season for Everett to become the team’s main tight end, but hey, it’s better late than never, I guess. Across his last three games, Everett has averaged 7.0 targets, 4.7 receptions, and 41.3 receiving yards. He has zero touchdowns in this three-game stretch, but if you add a score on top of any of those stat lines, he is a top-flight tight end in any week. He has advantageous matchups over the next two weeks against a Bills defense that has been vulnerable over the middle since losing Matt Milano and the Broncos, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Cade Otton (TB): 34% rostered
- Next Opponents: JAX, NO, @CAR
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Otton has been a regular denizen of this article. He has flashed TE1 upside in favorable matchups this season. Otton has four TE1 performances on his 2023 resume. Entering Week 15, he had seen eight red zone targets over his previous six games. That type of red zone usage gives him TE1 upside weekly. Jacksonville has bled out production to tight ends all season, giving up the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the second-most yards per reception. Otton could post his fifth TE1 week in Week 16.
DEFENSES
Written by Pat Fitzmaurice
Denver Broncos: 47% rostered
- Next Opponents: NE, LAC, @LV
- True value: $3
- Desperate need: $5
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: The Denver defense is coming off an abysmal Week 15 performance in Detroit. But even after generating minus-2 fantasy points against the Lions, the Broncos have still averaged 9.6 fantasy points over their last seven games, putting up at least eight points in all but two of those contests. The Broncos face QB Bailey Zappe and the toothless New England offense on Christmas Eve. Over his last three games, Zappe has been intercepted twice and sacked 11 times, and the Patriots have averaged 12.7 points per game over that stretch. In Week 17, the Broncos get an extremely favorable matchup against QB Easton Stick and the Chargers.
Cincinnati Bengals: 48% rostered
- Next Opponents: @PIT, @KC, CLE
- True value: $2
- Desperate need: $4
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: The Bengals are a solid streaming option in Week 16 thanks to a matchup with the division-rival Steelers. The Pittsburgh offense has bogged down in QB Mitchell Trubisky‘s two starts in place of the injured Kenny Pickett. Pittsburgh has scored 31 points in two games with Trubisky as the starter, and the former No. 2 overall draft pick has thrown two interceptions and taken five sacks in those two appearances.
Green Bay Packers: 47% rostered
- Next Opponents: @CAR, @MIN, CHI
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: The Packers managed to make Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield look like peak Tom Brady in Week 15. Mayfield became the first visiting quarterback to post a perfect 158.3 passer rating in a game at Lambeau Field. It’s a reasonably safe bet that Bryce Young will not post a perfect passer rating against Green Bay this week. Young has thrown just one TD pass in his last six games. The No. 1 overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft has thrown nine interceptions this season and has been sacked 51 times. As bad as the Packers’ defense looked last week, it’s likely going to look much better this Sunday against the anemic Carolina offense.
Houston Texans: 37% rostered
- Next Opponents: CLE, TEN, @IND
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: It’s generally good for fantasy defense to face pass-heavy opponents, because more passing means more opportunities for sacks and interceptions. The Houston defense should have plenty of scoring opportunities against Joe Flacco and the Browns this weekend. In Flacco’s three starts for Cleveland, he has thrown 44, 45 and 44 passes. He’s thrown five interceptions during that stretch, with three against the Bears on Sunday. The immobile Flacco has also been sacked seven times in those three starts. The Texans have a compelling fantasy matchup in Week 17 against the Titans, who just lost QB Will Levis to what’s likely to be a multi-week leg injury.
Detroit Lions: 31% rostered
- Next Opponents: @MIN, @DAL, MIN
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: The Lions defense had been struggling before finding its footing against the Broncos in Week 15. Detroit held Denver to 287 total yards and 4.6 yards per play. The Lions have an appealing Week 16 matchup against QB Nick Mullens and the Vikings. In 18 career starts, Mullens has thrown 24 interceptions and has been sacked 39 times. Mullens tossed two interceptions in Minnesota’s 27-24 loss to Cincinnati last Saturday.
Washington Commanders: 14% rostered
- Next Opponents: @NYJ, SF, DAL
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: $1
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: The Commanders?! Yes, the Commanders. Washington’s defense has been a sieve for much of the season, particularly in recent weeks following the Oct. 31 trades that sent edge rushers Montez Sweat and Chase Young out of town. But a matchup with the Jets can make a bad defense look respectable. It’s unclear who’ll start at quarterback for the Jets this week after Zach Wilson‘s Week 15 benching, but regardless of who gets the nod, it’s probably not going to be pretty. Wilson completed 4-of-11 passes for 26 yards on Sunday and was sacked four times. Backup Trevor Siemian was 14-of-26 for 110 yards with two interceptions and two sacks. All told, Jets quarterbacks have thrown more interceptions (13) than TD passes (9) this season and have taken 55 sacks. Entering Week 15, opposing defenses were averaging 12.0 fantasy points per game vs. the Jets.
Seattle Seahawks: 17% rostered
- Next Opponents: @TEN, PIT, @ARI
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: $1
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Entering Week 15, the Seattle defense was averaging just 4.0 fantasy points over its last six games. But the Seahawks make for a viable streaming option in Week 16 thanks to a matchup against the Titans, who lost rookie QB Will Levis to a leg injury on Sunday. Unless Levis can make a quick recovery, the Titans will probably start rusty veteran Ryan Tannehill on Sunday. In six starts earlier this season, Tannehill threw five interceptions and was sacked 19 times.
Chicago Bears: 14% rostered
- Next Opponents: ARI, ATL, @GB
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: $1
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Entering Week 15, the Bears’ defense had averaged 9.1 fantasy points over its previous nine games, making it one of the hottest fantasy defenses in the league. Chicago intercepted Browns QB Joe Flacco three times on Sunday, with LB Tremaine Edmunds running back one of those interceptions for a score. The Bears have a decent Week 16 matchup against the Cardinals.
KICKERS
Written by Pat Fitzmaurice
Brandon McManus (JAX): 43% rostered
- Next Opponents: @TB, CAR, @TEN
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: McManus missed a pair of FG attempts Sunday night against the Ravens, but there’s little reason for concern. McManus entered Week 15 tied for fourth among kickers in fantasy scoring at 9.4 points per game, having converted 24-of-28 field goals and 30-of-30 extra points. He gets a warm-weather matchup against the Buccaneers in Week 16, which offers fantasy managers peace of mind at a time of the season when weather becomes a more frequent concern.
Matt Gay (IND): 35% rostered
- Next Opponents: @ATL, LV, HOU
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Gay has been a top-10 fantasy kicker this year, averaging 9.3 points per game. He’s hit double-digit fantasy points in seven of his last 10 games. Gay gets a weatherproof dome matchup against the Falcons in Atlanta this week. The Falcons entered Week 15 having allowed 10.1 fantasy points per game to kickers, fourth-most in the league.
Michael Badgley (DET): 0% rostered
- Next Opponents: @MIN, @DAL, MIN
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: No need to worry about whether Badgley is rostered in your league, given his 0% rostership in Yahoo leagues. Badgley was elevated from the practice squad in Week 15 to kick for the Lions in place of Riley Patterson, who was deactivated. Badgley fared well in his maiden voyage with Detroit, converting 6-of-6 extra points. (He had no FG attempts in the Lions’ 42-17 thrashing of the Broncos.) Badgley has kicked for four other teams, most notably the Chargers from 2018 to 2020. In Week 16, Badgley gets an indoor matchup against the Chargers, who have yielded 9.8 fantasy points per game to kickers.
Will Lutz (DEN): 25% rostered
- Next Opponents: NE, LAC, @LV
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: $1
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Lutz has been money in the bank on field goals this season, converting 28-of-30. He gets a favorable Week 16 matchup at home against the Patriots, who entered Week 15 having allowed 8.6 fantasy points per game to kickers.
Cairo Santos (CHI): 5% rostered
- Next Opponents: ARI, ATL, @GB
- True value: $1
- Desperate need: $1
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: The Bears’ Week 15 loss to the Browns snapped Santos’ streak of four straight games with double-digit fantasy points. The reliable Santos hasn’t missed a field goal since Nov. 5. This week, he gets an appealing home matchup against the defensively challenged Cardinals, who are giving up 26.9 points per game.
Fool’s Gold
Roschon Johnson led Chicago’s RBs with 37 snaps on Sunday, more than D’Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert combined. Roschon also ran more pass routes (21) and had more targets (6) than Foreman or Herbert. But Roschon had only five carries, while Foreman and Herbert each had six. In Week 14, it was Foreman who led the Bears’ running backs in snaps and touches. No Chicago running back has provided consistent fantasy value this season, and it seems imprudent to rely on this ever-shifting backfield in the most important weeks of the fantasy season.
Tre Tucker had touchdown catches of 30 and 20 yards in the Raiders’ Thursday-night destruction of the Chargers. He had only four targets, however. The speedy Tucker is an intriguing roster stash in dynasty leagues, but he’s not someone you can trust in the final weeks of the season.
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