Hello and welcome to the Week 16 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.

• Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
• Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
• Waiver Wire Picks
• Fantasy Football Trade Tools

Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. You’ll notice that I’ve added a second chart to each section. This is the same chart that you’re used to seeing for each section, but looking purely at the last four weeks. As we move through the season, the more recent weeks should hold more weight so this will give you a snapshot of more recent usage and trends! Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.

• Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team’s average plays per game to its pace over expected, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (running plays faster than expected) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
• Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
• Running Back Usage: Compares rushing expected fantasy points per game to his receiving expected fantasy points per game, with the size of the player’s point as his snap percentage. I use expected fantasy points as a measure of one’s workload in that specific area of the game, so it can help us discern which players are getting strong rushing or receiving workloads.
• Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares player weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his yards per route run (YPRR), with the size of the player’s point as his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks). WOPR weighs both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity, while yards per route run is a measure of one’s efficiency with the routes (and targets) he’s given. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.

Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways

Team Pace and Plays

• As if you needed fewer reasons to watch the Commanders vs. Jets game, they are two of the slowest teams in the league. This year, both Washington and New York rank in the bottom seven in neutral-script seconds per play, and over the last four weeks they rank 30th and 29th, respectively. They are also both top ten in the percentage of plays in which the ball is snapped with less than ten seconds remaining. With both of these teams also struggling offensively, scoring 38 points combined seems like a tall task. While the Jets’ offense has been bottom-feeding all season, Washington’s decline has been sharper of late as they rank 29th in EPA per play and 27th in early down success rate over the last four weeks. There’s not a whole lot to like in this game except how few points I think they’ll score.
  • Action: bet under 38 total points

Team Pass Rates

• The Buffalo Bills are no longer who we thought they were. Since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator in Week 11, the Bills have leaned extremely run-heavy with a -3.0% PROE, including a -15.3% PROE in their Week 15 win over Dallas. This has benefitted James Cook, who has at least 21 opportunities in three of those four games. Unfortunately, this has limited Stefon Diggs‘ workload, which has gone from a 10.2 target-per-game average before Brady to an 8.75 target-per-game average with Brady. Because of this, Diggs likely doesn’t have the ceiling he had earlier this season when he recorded 100 receiving yards in five of the first six games. But, against the Los Angeles Chargers, the league’s worst defense, Diggs should see an efficiency boost that should make you cautiously optimistic about starting him as a WR2.
  • Action: start Stefon Diggs

Running Back Usage

• Despite one of the better workload profiles, Javonte Williams has been a disappointment for fantasy football managers. Averaging 19 opportunities per game since Denver’s Week 9 bye, Williams has totaled more than nine Half PPR points in just two games. Now, Denver will face a Patriots defense that is elite at defending the run. They rank first in defensive rushing DVOA, rushing EPA per play allowed, rushing success rate allowed, and explosive rush rate allowed — pretty good! That said, New England ranks 31st (not good) in receiving DVOA allowed to running backs. While that’d normally make me more bullish on Williams, his routes run rate has dropped in each of the last four games down to a mere 26% rate this past week. While he’s earned three, four, and two targets in the last three games, Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin are getting more involved in the passing game. Denver might pass more given the matchup, but their -3.9% PROE this season suggests they may be too stubborn to do so.
  • Action: fade Javonte Williams
• At first glance, you may think that Najee Harris was phased out of work in Week 15 because of the game script, but that wasn’t the case. Jaylen Warren out-snapped Harris in every quarter of Saturday’s game despite the score being within one possession (at points leading!) for Pittsburgh for the entire first half. Harris still managed a 50% rush share in the game but hit a season-low 34% snap rate (his first game below 50% all season). Meanwhile, Warren was finally used as a consistent receiving threat, racking up six targets on a season-high 83% routes run rate. I expect Pittsburgh to be trailing in their Week 16 game against the Bengals, which should lead to more work for Warren.
  • Action: fade Najee Harris, start Jaylen Warren as a high-end RB3 or flex
• Moving further East in Pennsylvania we find the Eagles’ backfield another tricky situation to interpret. After running hot in the first half of the season, D’Andre Swift has failed to reach double-digit Half PPR points in each of his last four games. The thing is, it’s just the touchdowns that have dried up for Swift as he hasn’t scored in five straight games. But, Monday night was the first game since Philly’s Week 10 bye in which Swift had multiple green-zone touches. Furthermore, Swift saw his highest rushing share usage rates and carries in a game since Week 9. While Boston Scott is typically known as the Giant killer for his incredible 10 touchdowns in eight games against them, this game script and the Giants’ subpar rush defense set up for Swift to have his best game in some time. Not to mention, Philadelphia’s -3.3% PROE over the last month indicates they still have some concern over Jalen Hurts‘ passing struggles and it shouldn’t be any different this upcoming week.
  • Action: start D’Andre Swift

Wide Receiver Usage

• Drake London followed up his season-best 24.2 Half-PPR performance in Week 14 with a dud of a performance in Week 15, catching just two of three targets for 24 yards. His target share hit 16%, his lowest since Week 3, and it’s taken matchups against Tampa Bay (a noted pass funnel defense) and Washington (a noted bad defense) for London to have his best games. While he’s run a route on at least 80% of dropbacks in every game that he’s finished, London hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 4, and I don’t like his chances of doing so this week.
  • Action: bench Drake London
• It finally happened for Terry McLaurin. If your team was lucky enough to make it to the playoffs with McLaurin and you were bold enough to start him, then congratulations! However, I’m here to pour some cold water on his performance because it was largely driven by Jacoby Brissett and Sam Howell has already been named the Week 16 starter. While McLaurin did get nine targets from Howell, he caught just three of them for 43 yards and the three targets he got from Brissett were caught, including a long touchdown. It’s an extremely small sample on just 10 attempts for Brissett, but he had a 90% on-target rate, a decent improvement over Howell’s 93.4% rate (per Fantasy Points Data). All this, combined with the fact that Washington plays a stout Jets defensive secondary, has me wary about starting McLaurin this week. You might be forced to play him, but I’d be looking for someone with more stable production.
  • Action: fade Terry McLaurin
• It’s been a rough year for Tee Higgins, to say the least. In addition to missing four games to injury and recording over 15 Half PPR points just three times. Of course, one of those three times was this past week (cue the Godfather “just when I thought I was out” meme). That coincided with a 98% routes run rate, which was his highest since Week 1. He also had an air yards share of 49% this past week, which followed a Week 14 performance in which he had a 59% air yards share. Furthermore, Higgins is second on the team in first-read target share (17.6%) in the three weeks that Jake Browning has started. When I first started writing this, I was thinking that Higgins would be a fade for me. But, as Cincinnati is playing a Steelers team that just allowed 7.7 yards per attempt to a Colts team without Michael Pittman for the majority of the game, I think Higgins profiles as a low-end WR2, especially with Ja’Marr Chase expected to miss time.
  • Action: start Tee Higgins

Tight End Usage

• Dalton Schultz returned to the Texans’ lineup following a two-game injury absence and Houston was not shy about thrusting him back into a full-time role. Schultz ran a route on 85% of dropbacks, his second-highest mark of the season. Though he only earned five targets on Sunday, if CJ Stroud returns this week then he will likely rely on Schultz more as they have lost Tank Dell since the last time they played together (and could also be without Nico Collins). If you’ve continued to stream tight end, I see Schultz as a top-12 option, even against a strong Browns defense, as his nine end zone targets still lead all Texans players.
  • Action: start Dalton Schultz

Quick Hops

As the fantasy football season winds down and most team situations have solidified themselves, I want to take a moment here to thank all the readers of Hoppen to Conclusions this year! It is not lost on me that getting to write this is a privilege and I’m very grateful for the audience that FantasyPros has given me.

On a related note, I want to wish you all a wonderful holiday season with fruitful conclusions to your fantasy football seasons! While not all of us will be so lucky to bring home a fantasy football championship, I hope you all get some time to spend time with loved ones. I’m very blessed to have a great group of friends and family, but if you aren’t as fortunate, know that I’m here not only as a resource for fantasy football but also as a sounding board if you ever need one.

It’s been a fun season and I’m excited for what we’ll be able to bring you this offseason!

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