Fantasy Football Outlook: Tony Pollard, Geno Smith, Alvin Kamara, D.J. Moore

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

D.J. Moore: Moore is the WR11 in fantasy points per game ranking ninth in deep targets. He dropped 22.6 fantasy points on Detroit in Week 11 to finish as the WR6 in fantasy. He can easily do it again this week. Since Week 8, Detroit has the ninth-highest rate of single-high (61.1%). Moore has a 25.4% target share, a 40.1% air-yard share, 2.88 YPRR, and a 37.2% first-read share against single-high. Among 149 qualifying wide receivers, Moore ranks 21st in fantasy points per route run against single-high. Moore will run about 80% of his routes against Cameron Sutton (61.3% catch rate and 103.6 passer rating) and Jerry Jacobs (66.7% catch rate and 103.4 passer rating). Since Week 8, Detroit has allowed the second-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR1

Alvin Kamara: Over the last two weeks, Kamara has played 58-64% of the snaps, averaging 19.5 touches and 114 total yards. Kamara is the RB4 in fantasy, ranking sixth in opportunity share, seventh in weighted opportunities, and 16th in red zone touches. Since Week 8, he has shown some life in his tackle-breaking, but it’s still not pretty. Among 36 qualifying backs, he ranks 24th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 28th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 8, Carolina has allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns, the fourth-highest rate of missed tackles per attempt, and the 13th-highest explosive run rate. Kamara is a lock for 15-20 touches in a plus matchup. Week 14 Positional Value: RB1

Geno Smith: Don’t look now, but Chef Geno could be back. He has finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback in two of his last four games (QB5, QB1). His deeper metrics have stated loudly all season that he hasn’t been playing as badly as public perception detailed. He is 12th in yards per attempt, sixth in hero throw rate, and 17th in CPOE. He’s set to duel this week against a secondary that tormented him in Week 12, but this time around could be different. The 49ers have been an average pass defense for much of this season. Since Week 8, they have ranked 14th in passing yards per game, 20th in passer rating, and 14th in CPOE allowed. Week 14 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

Tony Pollard: Since Week 8, Pollard has averaged 16.8 touches and 73.2 total yards. Over his last six games, his explosiveness has returned as he has ranked fourth in explosive run rate and 12th in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard was the RB26 in weekly scoring the last time he faced this defense, as he finished with 63 total yards and zero touchdowns. Philly has also dissolved into a neutral matchup for Pollard. Since Week 8, the Eagles have allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate while ranking 20th in missed tackles allowed per attempt and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. Week 14 Positional Value: RB2