Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football: Patriots vs. Steelers. Below we dive into a few key players from the upcoming game.
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Thursday Night Football Primer & Start/Sit Advice
Najee Harris: Harris remains the lead back in this offense. Over the last two weeks, Harris has more rushing attempts, routes run, and red zone opportunities (eight vs. four) than Jaylen Warren. Harris ranks 28th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. Harris is a good bet for 15-17 touches, but don’t expect him to do much with them this week. New England has been a run-stopping brick wall all season. Since Week 8, they have the 11th-lowest rushing touchdown rate and the lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed while also proudly sporting the highest stuff rate. Week 14 Positional Value: RB3
Demario Douglas: Douglas missed Week 13 due to a concussion. Hopefully, he is back in Week 14. Douglas has finished as a WR3 or better in four of his last five games (WR29, WR27, WR23, WR35). Since assuming a starting role in Week 7, he has had a 22.4% target share, 1.96 yards per route run, and a 27.8% first-read share as the unquestioned WR1 in the Patriots’ offense. Douglas should regain his crown as the Patriots’ number one option in short order with the best matchup on the board for the Patriots’ passing attack. Since Week 7, the Steelers have allowed the 10th-most PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: Solid Flex Play
Diontae Johnson: Since his Week 7 return, Johnson has had a 25.8% target share, a 43.5% air-yard share, 1.80 yards per route run (YPRR), and a 32% first-read share. Over the last seven games, he leads the team with five end-zone targets. Since Week 8, the Patriots have still led the NFL in man coverage rate (43.7%). Since Week 7, Johnson has led the team with a 28.6% target share, a 50.6% air-yard share, and a 31.4% first read share against man coverage. Johnson will run about 80% of his routes against Jonatahn Jones (60.5% catch rate and 93.8 passer rating) and J.C. Jackson (55.2% catch rate and 96.8 passer rating). Since Week 7, New England has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR3
Pat Freiermuth: Since his return to the fold, Freiermuth has had a 54% route run rate, an 18.2% target share, 2.89 YPRR, and an 18.2% first-read share. Most of those numbers are pumped up by his huge Week 12 performance. In the other two games since he came back, he hasn’t seen more than five targets or finished with more than 30 receiving yards. New England has been tough against tight ends this season, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game and only one touchdown this season. Week 14 Positional Value: TE2
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*