Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
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Fantasy Football Outlook
Cade Otton: Otton has commanded a 12.2% target share and a 12.1% first-read share with 0.95 YPRR. Yes, I know these aren’t amazing numbers. Otton has been a weekly TE2 streaming option that can post TE1 numbers when the matchup is juicy. The last time he faced Atlanta, he secured five of his six targets with 43 receiving yards to finish as the TE12 for the week. Otton has seen his red zone role explode in the last four games with seven red zone targets. Atlanta has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Otton could post another TE1 stat line this week. Week 14 Positional Value: Borderline TE1
Jerome Ford: Ford is the RB25 in fantasy points per game. He has played at least 64% of the snaps in three of the last five games, averaging 16.4 touches and 71.2 total yards. He ranks 13th in weighted opportunities. Ford has split the red zone work with Kareem Hunt since Week 9, with each back seeing nine opportunities inside the 20. Among 58 qualifying backs, Ford ranks 19th in missed tackles forced and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. He gets a surprisingly plus matchup this week against the Jaguars, who since Week 8, have allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the highest missed tackles per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards per carry to gap runs (5.15). 53.9% of Ford’s carries have been on gap plays. Week 14 Positional Value: RB2/3
Puka Nacua: In the last three games with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp playing full-time roles, Nacua has led the way in the passing attack with a 27.3% target share, a 41.7% air-yard share, 3.67 YPRR, and a 30.9% first-read share. The Puka Juice remains strong. While he is dealing with a shoulder issue, the Rams have stated it will not impact his game-day availability or playing time. Fire him up as usual. Nacua is the WR10 in fantasy points per game, ranking 23rd in red zone targets. The Rams should look to feed the ground game this week, but when they do take to the air, it’ll be all Nacua. Baltimore has allowed the second-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers since Week 8 (one receiving touchdown). Week 14 Positional Value: WR2
Gabriel Davis: Davis is the WR41 in fantasy, ranking 13th in deep targets and 19th in red zone targets. If Allen is looking to attack deep, Davis should be part of the equation. He leads the team with 17 deep targets (Diggs 14). Since Week 8 with Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid integrated into the offense. Davis has seen a 17.1% target share, a 31.8% air-yard share (team-leading), and a 22.0% first read share with 1.39 YPRR. Since Week 9, Kansas City has utilized two-high at the highest rate in the NFL (74.3%). Over his last five games, against two-high, Davis has a 15.1% target share, a 32.9% air-yard share, and a 19.6% first-read share. Since Week 8, he has led the team with three deep targets against two-high. If Sneed is covering Diggs all day, Davis will see Joshua Williams (66.7% catch rate and 119.2 passer rating) and Jaylen Watson (60% catch rate and 117.5 passer rating) all day. Davis is primed for a monster day. Week 14 Positional Value: WR3 with WR2 upside
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