Fantasy Football Outlook: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cole Kmet, Chris Olave, Jake Ferguson

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Cole Kmet: Kmet is the TE6 in fantasy, ranking seventh in red zone targets. Among 38 qualifying tight ends, Kmet ranks 11th in target share (17.8%), ninth in YPRR (1.67), and 13th in first-read share (18.0%). Since Week 8, Detroit has had the ninth-highest rate of single-high (61.1%). Against single-high, Kmet has seen his target share drop to 16.6%, his YPRR falls to 1.42, and his first-read share drop to 15.9%. He does rank third in receiving touchdowns against single-high, which has fueled his 0.46 fantasy points per route run against single-high (sixth-best among 57 qualifying tight ends). Detroit has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most receiving touchdowns per game (tied) to tight ends. Week 14 Positional Value: TE1

Chris Olave: Olave is the WR19 in fantasy, ranking first in deep targets and 23rd in red zone targets among wide receivers. Olave has a 24.5% target share, a 41.2% air-yard share, 2.19 YPRR, and a 31.4% first-read share. Since Week 8, Carolina has utilized single high at the fifth-highest rate (64.2%). Against single-high, Olave has eaten with a 45.3% air-yard share, 3.06 YPRR, and a 34.9% first-read share. Since Week 8, Carolina has held perimeter wide receivers to the third-lowest PPR points per target. While that is absolutely concerning, Olave should see a heaping dose of volume to outkick efficiency concerns. Week 14 Positional Value: WR1/2

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Smith-Njigba just quietly had his breakout game against Dallas with 11 targets, seven receptions, and 62 receiving yards. Add in the touchdown that was called back, and Smith-Njigba would have been cooking. Since Week 8, he has had a 16.4% target share, a 15.3% air-yard share, 1.75 YPRR, and a 20.4% first-read share. Since Week 12, the 49ers have utilized two-high at the seventh-highest rate (56%). Since Week 8 against two-high, Smith-Njigba has had a 16.5% target share, 1.41 YPRR, and an 18% first-read share. Chef Geno will lean on Lockett this week. Since Week 9, the 49ers have allowed the tenth-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR3/4

Jake Ferguson: Ferguson is the TE7 in fantasy, ranking sixth in deep target and first in red zone targets. He has seen a 15.5% target share with the 10th-most targets among tight ends. Philly has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game and the third-most receiving touchdowns per game (tied) to tight ends. Week 14 Positional Value: TE1