Fantasy Football Outlook: George Kittle, Nico Collins, Michael Pittman, Bijan Robinson

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

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Fantasy Football Outlook

Bijan Robinson: Over the last three games, Robinson has played 63-75% of the snaps, averaging 21 touches and 102.7 total yards per game. In those three games, he has handled 80% of the backfield red zone opportunities. Robinson ranks sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 27th in yards after contact per attempt. His offensive line has improved some, but still, they remain an average run-blocking unit, ranking 17th in adjusted yards before contact per attempt since Week 9. This week could be the Bijan blow-up game. Since Week 8, Tampa Bay’s run defense has fallen off a cliff with the seventh-lowest stuff rate, eighth-highest missed tackle per attempt rate, and the second-highest zone success rate allowed (Robinson 62.9% zone). Robinson should see 20-25 touches this week as a locked-in RB1. Week 14 Positional Value: RB1

Michael Pittman: In the five games that Pittman and Josh Downs have been full-time players with Minshew under center, Pittman has handled a 28.7% target share, a 32.5% air-yard share, and a 35% first-read share with 2.11 YPRR. Pittman is the WR12 in fantasy points per game, ranking third in red zone targets. He has garnered nine red zone looks over his last six games. Over their last four games, Cincinnati has the 11th-highest single-high rate (59.9%). In the last five games with Downs as a full-go, Pittman has a 35.1% target share, a 40.6% air-yard share, 2.76 YPRR, and a 42% first read share against single-high. Pittman will run about 71% of his routes against D.J. Turner (55.8% catch rate and 91.4 passer rating) and Chidobe Awuzie (67.6% catch rate and 108.2 passer rating). Pittman is set up for another high-volume game. He has at least 12 targets in five of his last seven games. Week 14 Positional Value: WR1

Nico Collins: After last week’s blow-up game, Collins has climbed to WR9 in fantasy points per game while ranking 23rd in red zone targets (eight red zone targets in his last five games). Last week, Collins had a 42.9% target share, a 56.9% air-yard share, 6.59 YPRR, and a 55% first-read share. Those are elite numbers, no matter how you slice them. Overall, Collins has a 22.3% target share, a 30.6% air-yard share, 3.20 YPRR, and a 29.4% first-read share. Since Week 8, New York has operated with the seventh-highest rate of two high (53.4%). Against two-high, Collins has had 2.40 YPRR and a 27.2% first-read share. Collins will have to roll up his sleeves again this week against a strong secondary. Since Week 8, the Jets have allowed the fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. With Tank Dell out, Collins should see an elite workload again this week, which can help him overcome the brutal matchup. Week 14 Positional Value: WR1

George Kittle: Kittle is the TE5 in fantasy points per game while ranking first in deep targets and eighth in red zone targets among tight ends. Kittle has been quiet the last two weeks, with less than 11 fantasy points in each game. This would be a nice spot for him to erupt, but it isn’t easy to forecast this week with so many other 49ers in advantageous spots. Since Week 9, Seattle has utilized zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate (82.2%). In the eight games that Aiyuk, Samuel, and George Kittle have been full-time players, Kittle has had a 17.9% target share, 2.10 YPRR, and an 18.1% first-read share against zone. Seattle has allowed the 10th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends, but they have also held the position to the fifth-fewest receiving touchdowns per game. I expect Kittle to take a backseat this week. Week 14 Positional Value: TE1