Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
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Fantasy Football Outlook
Justin Jefferson: Jefferson has stated he will play this week. Assuming he plays his usual role with this normal top-shelf effectiveness, Jefferson should shred this secondary. In Weeks 1-5, Jefferson had a 26.0% target share, a 37.9% air-yard share, 2.99 YPRR, and a 35% first-read share. He returns to elite WR1 status despite catching passes from Nick Mullens. Since Week 8, the Bengals have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR1
David Montgomery: Montgomery is the RB7 in fantasy points per game, averaging 14.6 touches and 85 total yards since his Week 10 return. He has seen 15 red zone opportunities over the last five games (Gibbs 10). Since Week 10, among 49 qualifying backs, he ranks 14th in missed tackles forced per attempt and third in yards after contact per attempt. Montgomery is fifth in red zone touches this season despite playing only ten games. This is the perfect matchup for Montgomery to get 18-20 carries against a run defense that, since Week 9, has allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt and the 12th-highest rushing touchdown rate. Week 15 Positional Value: RB1/2
Drake London: Well, I told you to start London last week. Good lord, he had a monster game, securing 10 of his 11 targets with 172 receiving yards. London’s talent has and should never be in question. He is one of the best young wide receivers in the game and a true alpha. The problem has always been and continues to be Atlanta’s offensive system and his usage. The last time he faced this secondary, he had only one target and goose-egged across the board. While I don’t foresee that happening again, I don’t think it will be a banner day. Since Week 2, London has had a 22.9% target share, a 32.2% air-yard share, 2.27 YPRR, and a 28.7% first-read share. Since Week 9, Carolina has utilized the second-highest rate of single-high (64.8%). Since Week 2, against single-high, Londan has seen his target share drop to 19.3% with a 27.5% air-yard share and 1.66 YPRR. He has still led the team with a 24.4% first-read share. Since Week 9, Carolina has allowed the ninth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR3
Ezekiel Elliott: Elliott is New England’s bell cow as long as Stevenson is out. Last week, he played 91% of the snaps, turning a whopping 29 touches into 140 total yards. To Elliott’s credit, this was arguably his best tackle-breaking performance of the 2023 season, as he had an 18% missed tackles per attempt rate and 2.73 yards after contact per attempt. He was the RB1 overall last week with 27.0 PPR points. Elliott should post another banner performance this week against a Chief’s run defense that has allowed the 12th-highest explosive run rate and the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt this season with the second-lowest stuff rate. Week 15 Positional Value: RB1/2
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