Fantasy Football Outlook: Austin Ekeler, Isaiah Likely, Evan Engram, Jahmyr Gibbs

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Jahmyr Gibbs: The Detroit backfield is a fluid situation weekly. Since Montgomery’s return in Week 10, he has played 45-71% of snaps weekly, averaging 13.8 touches and 83.6 total yards. Gibbs continues to break tackles at a rate among the best in the league, ranking ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. With Montgomery back, Gibbs has retained his pass game role with a 59.9% route run rate and 15.3% target share. Detroit will have to move the ball through the air this week, which lends to Gibbs’ skill set. Since Week 8, Chicago has been a very good run defense, allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. The Bears, however, have allowed the third-most receptions per game and the second-highest yards per reception to backs. Week 14 Positional Value: RB1/2

Evan Engram: Engram is the TE8 in fantasy, coming off easily his best game of the season. Last week, Engram handled a 23.1% target share, finishing with nine receptions, 82 receiving yards, and his first score of the season. He also had a 27.6% first-read share with Kirk out. Overall, he has garnered a 21.3% target share and a 23.6% first-read share and produced 1.59 YPRR. Don’t expect Engram to follow up last week’s performance with a banner game. Cleveland has been a no-fly zone for tight ends all season, allowing the fewest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to the position. The Browns have allowed only three receiving touchdowns to tight ends all season, and two of those scores came from Mark Andrews in Week 4. I would consider sitting Engram this week, depending on your options at tight end. Week 14 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

Isaiah Likely: In Week 12, as Baltimore’s starting tight end, Likely had a 69.4% route run rate, a 15.6% target share, 1.60 yards per route run, and a 13.3% first-read share. All of those usage metrics are TE1-worthy. Likely has had an up-and-down history when called upon as Baltimore’s starter, but he should piece together a solid stat line this week. Los Angeles has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 14 Positional Value: TE1

Austin Ekeler: Ekeler is the RB15 in fantasy, ranking tenth in opportunity share, 21st in weighted opportunities, and 16th in red zone touches. Since Week 6, he has averaged 17.2 touches and 72.1 total yards. At this juncture, I don’t know if we will see the 2022 version of Ekeler this season. He has looked a step slow all season. This could be due to the ankle sprain or volume adding up. Among 58 qualifying backs, he ranks 36th in explosive run rate and 52nd in missed tackles forced per attempt. At this point, the hope is that Denver will be the magic elixir to get Ekeler jump-started again. Since Week 8, Denver has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate and the tenth-highest missed tackles per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. Week 14 Positional Value: RB1/2