Fantasy Football Outlook: Alvin Kamara, Kyle Pitts, Gardner Minshew, Courtland Sutton

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Gardner Minshew: Since taking over in Week 6, Minshew has been a solid QB2, running 26th in fantasy points per dropback and 23rd in fantasy points per game. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 21st in yards per attempt, 28th in passer rating, and 30th in CPOE. Since Week 9, the Steelers have been a neutral to below-average matchup for quarterbacks, depending on which metrics you are staring at. Over their last six games, the Steelers have ranked 17th in yards per attempt and 18th in adjusted completion rate allowed while also containing passers with the tenth-lowest pass rating and the 12th-lowest CPOE allowed. Don’t expect Minshew to post a difference-making score this week. Week 15 Positional Value: QB2

Courtland Sutton: Sutton has been a touchdown machine this season with ten total scores (second-most). He is the WR22 in fantasy points per game, ranking 18th in deep targets and seventh in red zone targets. Sutton has a 20.9% target share, a 41.7% air-yar share, 1.91 YPRR, and a 25.6% first-read share. Since Week 9, Detroit has utilized single-high at the sixth-highest rate (63.2%). Against single-high, Sutton has seen a 23.3% target share with a 37.9% air-yard share and 2.30 YPRR. Against this coverage alignment, he has seen his first-read share bump to 27.6%. Sutton will run about 77% of his routes against Cameron Sutton (60.9% catch rate and 103.5 passer rating) and Jerry Jacobs (66.2% catch rate and 107.8 passer rating). Since Week 9, Detroit has allowed the most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR2

Kyle Pitts: Over the last two games, Pitts has seen an uptick in his usage with an 80% route run rate, a 20.9% target share, and a 22.6% first-read share producing 1.80 YPRR. This has yielded TE11 and TE7 weekly finishes. Pitts has operated as the team’s starting slot receiver (51.7% slot). This isn’t a great matchup for Pitts on paper, as Carolina has held slot receivers to the 12th-lowest PPR points per target since Week 8. With the bar being set low weekly for fantasy tight ends to sneak into the TE1 conversation, can Pitts do it in Week 15? Sure, but there are a ton of solid streaming options this week that could out-produce him. Week 15 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

Alvin Kamara: Kamara is the RB3 in fantasy points per game. He ranks seventh in opportunity share, sixth in weighted opportunities, and tenth in red zone touches. Since Week 10, Kamara has averaged 17.5 touches and 87 total yards. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks 47th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 56th in yards after contact per attempt. Kamara has retained his pass game usage, ranking first in targets and target share and ninth in routes run. Kamara should be able to stack a decent outing against a run defense that Since Week 9, has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, third-highest explosive run rate, and the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 15 Positional Value: RB1/2