Fantasy Football Outlook: A.J. Dillon, Brandon Aiyuk, C.J. Stroud, Gardner Minshew

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Gardner Minshew: Minshew has been a solid QB2 this season with some QB1 upside if the matchup is right. Minshew has two QB1 weeks this season and has been the QB13 or higher in each of his last two games (QB13, QB12). He has performed as a QB2 in most metrics, ranking 25th in yards per attempt, 24th in adjusted completion rate, and 28th in fantasy points per dropback. The matchup this week could help to elevate mustache mania into the borderline QB1 conversation. Since Week 8, the Bengals have dissolved into a bottom-three pass defense, allowing the highest yards per attempt, the sixth-highest passer rating, and the adjusted completion rate. Minshew will be nestled inside of my top 15 quarterbacks in ranks this week. Week 14 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

C.J. Stroud: Stroud is the QB4 in fantasy, ranking third in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, and seventh in fantasy points per dropback. Stroud has finished as a QB1 in 50% of his games this season. He ranks third in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, and seventh in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 8, the Jets have continued to field a strong pass defense with the fourth-lowest yards per attempt and the fifth-lowest passer rating and adjusted completion rate allowed. Since Week 8, New York has operated with the seventh-highest rate of two high (53.4%). Stroud ranks fifth in yards per attempt and eighth in fantasy points per dropback against two high. Stroud probably won’t finish with a ceiling performance in Week 14, but he can still churn out QB1 numbers. Week 14 Positional Value: QB1

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk is the WR14 in fantasy points per game. The last time he faced this secondary, he secured two of his four targets with 50 receiving yards and a score (WR30). Seattle’s corners have played well all season, but recently, they have shown some flexibility with the 12th-most PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers since Week 8. Since Week 9, Seattle has utilized zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate (82.2%). In the eight games that Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle have been full-time players, Aiyuk has led the team with a 22.5% target share, a 42.7% air-yard share, 3.47 YPRR, and a 28.7% first-read share against zone. Don’t be surprised if Aiyuk leads the 49ers in receiving this week with a big game. Week 14 Positional Value: WR1/2

A.J. Dillon: Dillon is the RB40 in fantasy. He has been gifted a litany of plus matchups this season that he has done nothing against. Last week, against the run funnel that is the Chiefs, Dillon could only manage 9.7 fantasy points. Over the last two weeks, he has averaged 57% of the snaps played, 18 touches, and 84 total yards. Among 58 qualifying backs, he ranks 46th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. In theory, he should destroy the Giants’ run defense, but we shall see. Since Week 8, the Giants have allowed the 11th-highest missed tackles per attempt, the eighth-highest explosive run rate, and the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 14 Positional Value: RB3