Welcome to Week 17 of the NFL, a pivotal moment for fantasy football enthusiasts as we enter CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK of the fantasy playoffs! In this thrilling phase of the season, I’m here to equip you with the latest edition of the 2023 usage report, packed with essential tips for fantasy managers.
As trade deadlines have passed, our focus shifts from traditional buy/sell strategies to a “stock up/stock down” approach for Weeks 17 throughout the postseason. Expect more direct DFS and Prizepicks advice for those seeking extra excitement beyond season-long leagues if you are no longer in the running, or you are just looking for something extra to enhance your viewing experience.
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Now, let’s dive into the Week 17 Fantasy Football Forecast.
And at the top – as it is overthinking DST season – I will list out the top DSTs per the FantasyPros SOS tool for Week 17.
Browns, 49ers, Rams, Jaguars, Falcons, Jets and Bills.
Fantasy Football Forecast
Los Angeles Rams
Drop Royce Freeman, Add Ronnie Rivers, Add Rams DST, Demarcus Robinson
Kyren Williams led the rushing attack with 22 attempts for 104 yards, scoring 1 touchdown. Played 79% of the snaps. Williams, in addition to his rushing contributions, was targeted once for receiving but did not make any receptions. Ronnie Rivers had 6 rushing attempts, gaining 20 yards in total, but he did not have any recorded targets or receptions in the receiving game.
But unlike last week, Royce Freeman was not the No. 2 RB. Rivers served as the direct backup as he has done before his injury. Drop Freeman and stash Rivers.
Puka Nacua was a standout receiver with 11 targets, making 9 receptions for 164 yards and scoring 1 touchdown. He was also targeted in the end zone a few more times.
Demarcus Robinson also made an impact with 6 receptions on 6 targets for 82 yards and 1 touchdown. Robinson scored for the fourth straight game. Can’t deny he’s trending up. Clear-cut WR3 in the Rams’ heavy 11 personnel package. Ran a route on 94% of the dropbacks.
Cooper Kupp, despite being targeted 12 times, ended with 6 receptions for 52 yards. Kupp got shaken up early in the game and looked out of sync throughout the entire game. Still, he played 100% of the snaps.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford completed 24 out of 34 passes for 328 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Tyler Higbee was targeted 3 times, making 3 receptions for a total of 30 yards. Role improved from last week, with a 74% snap share (69% route participation). Still likely can’t be trusted.
LA plays at the Giants in the FF championship round.
New Orleans Saints
Add Juwan Johnson, Add Rashid Shaheed, Sell Alvin Kamara, Taysom Hill
Alvin Kamara had 9 rushing attempts for 19 yards, a 73% snap share. 6 for 10 yards in the first half. Correctly faded Kamara’s rushing totals against a tough Rams defense on Thursday night.
Jamaal Williams had 2 carries while playing just 22% snap share. Down 30-7, the team leaned on Kamara more than usual.
Kamara was also involved in the passing game, making 5 receptions.
Derek Carr completed 27 out of 40 passes for 319 yards, achieving three touchdowns and one interception.
Chris Olave led the receiving group with 123 yards from 9 receptions on 13 targets.
Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson, and A.T. Perry (1 target) also contributed to the passing game with touchdowns. Shaheed’s longest reception was 45 yards for a long score in the first half.
The speedy second-year WR also played the most WR snaps (82%) and ran the most routes. He had 1 rushing attempt for 4 yards, and in receiving, he made 5 receptions on 9 targets for 70 yards. 134 air yards.
Johnson caught 4 passes on 7 targets for 48 yards and scored. He dominated the Saints’ TE usage, running a route on 77% of the dropbacks. Great matchup in Week 17 to be a viable streaming tight end.
Taysom Hill had 2 rushing attempts for 2 yards. Just 3 carries over the last 2 games. Like last week, Hill was 3rd in routes compared to the other Saints TEs. Foster Moreau made 1 reception on 2 targets for 13 yards.
Another extremely low snap share for Hill after he returned from injury (17%). Hard to trust him moving forward given the reduced role the last two games.
At Tampa Bay rounds out the fantasy playoffs for the Saints.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Drop Pat Freiermuth, Hold Diontae Johnson, Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris, George Pickens
Najee Harris had 19 carries for 78 yards and 1 touchdown. Jaylen Warren rushed 8 times for 24 yards. Warren also contributed to the passing game with 5 receptions for 30 yards from 6 targets (18 routes run). Harris was not targeted and only ran 3 routes in a positive game script.
The team went back to Harris as the starter after a bad Week 15. Trust him in the fantasy championships in a plus-matchup.
Mason Rudolph completed 17 of 27 attempts for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns in his first start since 2021.
George Pickens was a standout receiver with 4 catches for 195 yards and 2 touchdowns on 6 targets (22% target share). Monster performance on Christmas Eve Eve. The vast majority came on two big plays, one downfield and one YAC. Therefore, I am opting to shoot for the LESS THAN Picken’s receiving yards in Week 17 playing at Seattle. The Seahawks are a tougher defense versus perimeter WRs ranking top-10 in fewest fantasy points allowed versus 4th-most against slot WRs. Last 2 weeks, Seattle has also limited opposing WRs to just 87.5 yards total (4th-fewest). A.J. Brown got just 56 yards against them. Pickens is a boom-or-bust WR who will struggle more on the road this week.
Allen Robinson had 4 receptions on 4 targets for 36 yards. Most yards since Week 1.
Diontae Johnson received 5 targets, resulting in 2 catches for 15 yards. He saw 6 targets with penalties. Just wasn’t his nice for production, but he was seeing most of the underneath looks from Rudolph – 4 short targets. Woof.
Pat Freiermuth was not targeted. With Rudolph under center, you can’t trust Freiermuth in Week 17.
The Steelers’ upcoming schedule: At the Seahawks.
Cincinnati Bengals
Sell Joe Mixon, Add Chase Brown, Drop Tyler Boyd
Joe Mixon carried the ball 11 times for 43 yards, which he got a lot on a final carry in the fourth quarter. With 7 minutes left in the fourth QTR, Mixon had 8 carries for 23 yards.
Rookie Chase Brown had 4 rushes for 16 yards.
Brown and Mixon had a combined 6 receptions for 15 yards on 6 targets. Mixon caught 2 balls on the 1st drive and did not have any more receptions in the game (4 targets).
Brown continues to eat into Mixon’s workload. Mixon played just 59% of the snaps. In the first half, the carries were just 5 to 3 in Mixon’s favor.
Tee Higgins received 8 targets without Ja’Marr Chase active, making 5 receptions for 140 yards and a touchdown. Caught a long YAC-TD. Be careful with him next week. He tends to perform much better when Chase misses games. And he had just one catch for 21 yards in the first half (2 targets).
Tyler Boyd was targeted 7 times, catching 5 passes for 59 yards. He was always a floor play even with Chase out. He can be dropped with Chase expected to return next week.
Andrei Iosivas made 4 receptions for 36 yards from 8 targets. Saw the biggest bump as Chase’s 1-for-1 backup.
Drew Sample had 3 receptions for 38 yards on 3 targets. No Irv Smith Jr. in the lineup, but that did not impact Tanner Hudson in any way positively in a production sense (2 targets). Even though Hudson ran more routes (64%) than he had at any point during the season. Go figure.
Trenton Irwin secured all 4 targets for 37 yards.
It’s at the Chiefs in the fantasy football championships.
Buffalo Bills
Hold/Sell James Cook, Sell Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Dalton Kincaid, Add Leonard Fournette, Drop Latavius Murray
James Cook rushed 20 times for 70 yards and lost a fumble while playing 75% of the snaps. More surprisingly, Leonard Fournette contributed 20 yards on 5 carries (4 in the red zone). Cook was not involved in the passing game, seeing just one target that was erased because of a penalty.
He was called up from the practice squad with Ty Johnson out due to injury. In addition to playing the No. 2 role, he also returned kicks. He’s the primary handcuff to Cook.
Josh Allen had 5 rushing attempts, gaining 15 yards and scoring 2 touchdowns. Allen completed 15 out of 21 passes for 237 yards, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. His longest throw was 57 yards.
Gabe Davis made 4 catches for 130 yards and a touchdown on 6 targets. The boom-or-bust saga continues. Patriots next week? Probably a bust incoming. One catch for 6 yards the last time he played New England.
Khalil Shakir caught all 3 of his targets for 45 yards. Caught a TD late that was overturned.
Stefon Diggs had 5 receptions for 29 yards from 8 targets (38% target share). His streak of underwhelming performances continues. Always seems to be getting checked on the sidelines as well, for one reason or another. At this point in the year, not operating at 100% health. He only played 60% of the snaps in this contest on Saturday night. Same as Trent Sherfield.
The target share has been outstanding the last three weeks, but it’s not turning into any worthwhile production.
Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid also contributed with receptions. Knox: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 26 yards. Kincaid: 2 targets, 1 reception, 7 yards. With Knox back the last 3 games, Kincaid’s production has plummeted. Can’t trust him. Played fewer snaps than Knox (47% vs 42%). Also ran a route on just 52% of the dropbacks.
The Bills play the Patriots at home next to close out the fantasy football season. Not ideal for those riding Bills in the championship round.
Cook has been on a heater but has only surpassed 65.5 rushing yards in two of his last 4 games played. He was held to 56 yards the last time he faced the Patriots. I think he will run into similar challenges this week. The Patriots are the No. 1 defense versus the run, allowing 3.26 yards per carry to opposing RBs. The Patriots haven’t allowed an RB to hit 55 rushing yards since Week 10. In the last five games, they have allowed an average of fewer than 45 rushing yards to RBs.
Los Angeles Chargers
Sell Austin Ekeler, Avoid Quentin Johnston, Add Joshua Palmer, Gerald Everett
Austin Ekeler led the team with 15 carries for 65 yards. 64% snap share.
Quarterback Easton Stick added 25 yards and a touchdown on 7 carries.
Stick completed 23 of 33 passes for 215 yards. He wasn’t able to throw a touchdown pass and wasn’t intercepted. The longest pass was 23 yards.
Josh Palmer: 8 targets, 5 receptions, 47 yards. 93% snap share.
Gerald Everett: 8 targets, 7 receptions, 42 yards. 70% snap share with Donald Parham out another week. Strong usage, connection with Stick and matchup in Week 17. Mt. Everett has 20 targets from Stick over the last 3 weeks.
Quentin Johnston: 5 targets, 2 receptions, 29 yards. Woof. 83% snap share. Over 100 air yards. It’s bad folks.
Other ancillary pieces:
- Alex Erickson: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 31 yards. 53% snap share as the WR3.
- Austin Ekeler: 4 targets, 3 receptions, 21 yards
- Jalen Guyton: 2 targets, 1 reception, 12 yards
- Isaiah Spiller: 1 target, 1 reception, 4 yards
Remaining schedule: At the Broncos.
Minnesota Vikings
Add Ty Chandler, Nick Mullens, Add K.J. Osborn, Sell Alexander Mattison
The rushing attack was subdued in Week 16, with Ty Chandler scoring the only rushing touchdown on 8 carries for 17 yards. Chandler saw a reduced role with Alexander Mattison back. He played 65% of the snaps even though Mattison played just 9%. Still, the matchup is divine next week to not trust Chandler.
Nick Mullens passed for 411 yards, completing 22 out of 36 attempts with 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. The receiving game was led by Justin Jefferson, who had 6 receptions for 141 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. 222 air yards and 42% air yards share.
K.J. Osborn also made significant contributions with 5 receptions for 95 yards and a touchdown (7 targets, 85% snap share) with Jordan Addison hurt early in the contest. KJ saw over 100 air yards.
Tight end T.J. Hockenson added 58 yards on 4 catches (44% snap share), but suffered season-ending ACL, MCL injuries on Sunday.
The Packers are next for the Vikings, who will be at home.
Detroit Lions
Hold/Buy David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Add Jameson Williams
The Lions’ offense was led by Jahmyr Gibbs with 15 carries for 80 yards and 2 touchdowns. David Montgomery also contributed 55 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. Gibbs out-snapped Monty 58% to 39% and saw 7 targets to Monty’s 2 targets. Gibbs also saw 5 red-zone carries and 2 targets in the red zone.
Quarterback Jared Goff completed 30 of 40 pass attempts for 257 yards and a touchdown, without any interceptions. Amon-Ra St. Brown was the leading receiver, catching 12 passes for 106 yards and a touchdown (14 targets).
Other contributors in the receiving game included Jameson Williams with 43 yards and Kalif Raymond with 29 yards. Jamo’s role was again split with Josh Reynolds as the WR2 (58% snap share), but it was another strong target outing with 6 targets and 5 receptions. They might HAVE to use him next week in a projected shootout. 2 red-zone targets last week.
At the Cowboys are following up for the Lions.
Only 3 QBs that have faced Dallas have thrown for more than 260 passing yards this season. Fewer than 200 passing yards per game overall. 8 of the last 12 QBs they have faced have gone UNDER their projected passing yards. Jared Goff has thrown for less than 261 yards in three of his last four games and in three straight road contests. With Dallas’ biggest weakness being against the run, I think we see the Lions throw less, having Goff finish under his projection passing yardage.
Atlanta Falcons
Buy Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Add Falcons DST, Tyler Allgeier
Bijan Robinson led the rushing attack with 72 yards on a 75% snap rare, while Tyler Allgeier added 69 yards and a touchdown on 9 carries. Cordarrelle Patterson also earned 7 carries for 26 yards.
Quarterback Taylor Heinicke completed 23 of 33 passes for 229 yards and a touchdown. In the receiving corps, Bijan Robinson again led with 50 yards with 7 catches and 10 targets (31% target share).
Robinson also tallied a team-high 4 red-zone carries to Allgeier’s 3.
Kyle Pitts caught a 24-yard touchdown on 4 targets (3 for 49). Drake London was quiet, with only 3-39 on 4 targets.
Tight end Jonnu Smith was one of Heinicke’s favorite options, tallying 6 targets on a 69% snap share. 19% target share.
They play the Bears in Chicago during Week 17. Look for Robinson to see crazy usage as a receiver yet again. The rookie route participation (30-plus routes run) is off-the-charts.
Indianapolis Colts
Buy Josh Downs, Avoid Alec Pierce, Add Colts DST
Jonathan Taylor led the rushing with 43 yards and a touchdown while playing 59% of the snaps. Tyler Goodson and Trey Sermon split back-up duties.
Quarterback Gardner Minshew added 31 rushing yards. Minshew also completed 20 of 37 passes for 201 yards but threw an interception.
Kylen Granson was the leading receiver with 62 yards on 7 targets, followed by Will Mallory with 47 yards. Granson played the most TE snaps at 39%.
The Falcons remain a defense to attack with tight ends.
Josh Downs earned a team-high 9 targets (26%), but only caught 6 passes for 39 yards with Michael Pittman Jr. inactive (80 air yards). Alec Pierce was equally ineffective, turning 7 targets to 3 catches for 30 yards. 114 air yards.
The Colts will play home versus the Raiders to close the fantasy season.
Green Bay Packers
Sell Aaron Jones, Hold Jayden Reed, Add Tucker Kraft
No Jayden Reed or Christian Watson in the game for Jordan Love.
The Packers ran the ball wild behind Aaron Jones, with 21 carries for 127 yards plus 3 targets. A.J. Dillon had just 7 carries but also a goal-line TD score on just an 18% snap share, behind Patrick Taylor. Still, Jones only played 52% of the snaps and the matchup next week is much worse for his rushing numbers. He also somehow didn’t score in the red zone – despite 8 red-zone carries in Week 16.
Tight end Tucker Kraft was the leading receiver with 4 catches for 60 yards and 1 TD on 6 targets (23% target share). Bo Melton also had 6 targets (35% air yards share) as Dontayvion Wicks left the game with an injury as well.
Romeo Doubs led all Packers with 79 yards on 4 grabs and 5 targets. Malik Heath ran the second-most routes (25), behind only Kraft (77% snap share).
The Vikings are next for the GB Packers, who will be playing on the road.
Carolina Panthers
Add D.J. Chark, Hold/Sell Chuba Hubbard, Add Adam Thielen, Sell Jonathan Mingo,
Chuba Hubbard led the rushing efforts with 43 yards and a touchdown, while Ihmir Smith-Marsette also scored a touchdown. Bryce Young threw for 312 yards and 2 touchdowns on 23 of 36 passing. D.J. Chark was a standout receiver, catching 6 passes for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns on 8 targets. 132 air yards
Adam Thielen also contributed significantly with 94 receiving yards on 8 targets. The Panthers totaled 312 passing yards and 96 rushing yards in their offensive efforts.
The Panthers play at Jacksonville in Week 17. Great matchup for the Panthers’ passing game to keep on rolling.
Houston Texans
Add Noah Brown, Sell Devin Singletary, Add Texans DST
Devin Singletary led the rushing attack with 44 yards on 9 carries while drawing 3 targets on a 44% snap share. Dare Ogunbowale chipped in a 41% snap share with 3 targets of his own.
The passing game was split between Davis Mills, who threw for 149 yards and 2 touchdowns on 15 of 32 passing, and Case Keenum, who added 62 yards but threw 2 interceptions. Dalton Schultz was the top receiver with 8 receptions for 61 yards on 11 targets.
Other notable contributors in the receiving game included Noah Brown with 38 yards (7 targets, but all in the second half of the game), 92 air yards and Xavier Hutchinson with an 18-yard catch. Brown played the most WR snaps at 81%.
Nico Collins drew 6 targets but only caught 4 passes for 18 yards and 1 TD. He only played 47% of the snaps. Not back to a full-time role after missing last week with an injury.
They face the Titans at home in Week 17.
Cleveland Browns
Buy David Njoku, Amari Cooper, Sell Elijah Moore, Hold Jerome Ford, Sell Kareem Hunt
Jerome Ford led the rushing attack with 25 yards and a touchdown on a 43% snap rate, while Kareem Hunt added another touchdown on a 38% snap share on 7 carries. Hunt also interestingly drew twice as many targets as Ford (4 vs. 2) despite running more routes.
Elite Joe Flacco was the standout in the passing game, throwing for 368 yards and 3 touchdowns on 27 of 42 passing.
Amari Cooper had a remarkable game, receiving 11 passes for 265 yards and 2 touchdowns on 15 targets. David Njoku was also extremely productive, going 6 for 44 and 1 score as well on 9 targets.
The Browns’ Remaining Schedule: Home vs NYJ on Thursday night football.
Needless to say, if there were ever a game/time for this offense to regress, it would likely be on a short week versus an equally elite defense.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Buy Travis Etienne, Sell Calvin Ridley
Trevor Lawrence led the team in rushing with 29 yards on 4 carries and passed for 211 yards, completing 17 out of 29 attempts with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. Backup QB C.J. Beathard added 94 passing yards, completing 11 of 15 attempts with 1 touchdown. Lawrence left the game with a shoulder injury.
The top receivers were Evan Engram, who had 95 yards on 10 receptions on a whopping 15 targets (35%), and Calvin Ridley, who caught 6 passes for 90 yards and scored 2 touchdowns on 9 targets. 111 air yards.
The team’s total rushing yards were 37, with 305 yards gained through the air.
Tim Jones played ahead of Parker Washington, with a 68% snap share, but it was a close split for WR2 duties behind Ridley.
When Beathard entered the game in the fourth quarter…the targets were as follows:
- Engram – 6
- Ridley – 4
- Jones – 3
- Etienne – 1
The Panthers are next for the Jacksonville Jaguars at home. It’s the perfect bounce-back spot for Travis Etienne Jr., after he rushed for 12 yards on 6 carries in Week 16. Still played 73% of the snaps. But it’s a bad matchup for Jaguars pass-catchers, so it might be a smart time to fade them after a strong Week 16 outing. Note that Ridley had one target in the first half…
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Add Cade Otton, Hold Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Rachaad White
Rachaad White led the rushing attack with 39 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. White also caught 6 balls for 38 yards on 7 targets.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield completed 26 of 35 passes for 283 yards and 2 touchdowns, without any interceptions. Mike Evans was the top receiver, catching 7 passes for 86 yards and scoring 2 touchdowns (8 targets), while Chris Godwin added 78 yards on 6 receptions on a team-high 11 targets.
Godwin has been on a tear the last three weeks, posting target totals of 11, 12, 11. He has 53-plus yards in all three games, which is why I love the MORE THAN on his 61.5 receiving yards number this week on Prizepicks. Saints are a slot funnel defense allowing more than twice the production to slot WRs than perimeter ones this season. Godwin also blew up the first times these teams played, going for 114 yards on 11 targets and 8 catches.
The Saints at home are next for TB. It’s a great matchup for Otton if you need a streaming tight end.
Tennessee Titans
Add Chigoziem Okonkwo, Sell DeAndre Hopkins, Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry led the rushing attack with 88 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill completed 18 of 26 passes for 152 yards, with tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo being the top receiver, catching 6 passes for 63 yards and a touchdown (40% air yards share, 25% target share).
Tyjae Spears added 9 carries for 40 yards against a bad Seattle run defense while drawing 6 targets.
DeAndre Hopkins was abysmal again, with just 2 catches for 20 yards on 4 targets. Doesn’t have a high ceiling with Tannehill at QB.
The team’s total rushing yardage was 162, with a passing total of 164 yards. The Titans showed a balanced offense with effective contributions from both their running and passing games.
Playing at Houston rounds out the rest of the FF season for the Titans. On the road, versus an elite run defense spells disaster for Henry. Okonkwo’s role is surging though – 83% route participation, 71% snap share – so he can be added and started versus the Texans who rank 5th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season.
Seattle Seahawks
Hold Kenneth Walker, Buy Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sell/Hold Tyler Lockett
In the Seahawks game, Kenneth Walker III led the team in rushing with 54 yards on 16 carries while 58% of the snaps. Zach Charbonnet had 2 carries for no gain and 2 targets, resulting in 1 reception with -4 yards. 42% snap share. Both of Charb’s carries came inside the 20-yard line.
Quarterback Geno Smith completed 25 of 36 passes for 227 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Tyler Lockett was the top receiver with 8 receptions for 81 yards (11 targets, 115 air yards). The Seahawks demonstrated a more pass-focused offense, with key contributions from Lockett and rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Smith-Njigba had 7 targets (19% target share) with 6 receptions for 61 yards. D.K. Metcalf received 6 targets, making 4 receptions for 56 yards and scored 1 touchdown.
The Seahawks take on Pittsburgh at home to close the season. Keep playing Smith-Njigba in another plus-matchup for slot WRs. Note that Colby Parkinson also drew 3 red-zone targets in Week 16.
New York Jets
Sell/Hold Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall
Breece Hall was a key contributor with 20 carries for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. His longest run was 36 yards on a 77% snap share. Israel Abanikanda added 9 carries for 43 yards
In the passing game, Breece Hall led with 12 receptions on 16 targets (36% target share) for 96 yards. 32 touches for Hall in a MONSTER GAME.
Garrett Wilson had 9 receptions for 76 yards from 15 targets (33%). Wilson and Hall combined for a whopping 31 targets. Madness.
Tyler Conklin caught 4 passes for 36 yards from 7 targets. 83% snap share. However, he cannot be trusted versus the Browns defense that is holding opposing tight ends to the lowest receiving yards per game among all teams this season (31.5). Take the LESS THAN on Conklin’s 28.5 receiving yards prop.
The Jets’ offense showed a strong running game complemented by efficient short-passing.
The Browns (TNF) are next for Gang Green. The Browns are a different animal in home games this season. I’d be wary of playing Jets players this week looking for ceiling outcomes. But if the offense remains super concentrated around Hall/Wilson it won’t matter as much for the negative matchup.
Washington Commanders
Add Chris Rodriguez Jr., Drop Jahan Dotson, Sell Curtis Samuel, Sell Terry McLaurin
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. led the rushing attack with 10 carries for 58 yards and 2 touchdowns. Antonio Gibson contributed with 9 carries for 30 yards and a touchdown. 44% snap share for Gibby vs C-Rod’s 39% snap rate.
Quarterback Jacoby Brissett added 10 yards on a single carry.
In the passing game, Brissett completed 10 of 13 attempts for 100 yards and a touchdown, while Sam Howell struggled, completing 6 of 22 passes for 56 yards and throwing 2 interceptions. He was benched for the second straight game.
Terry McLaurin was the top receiver with 3 receptions for 50 yards on 5 targets. Brissett connected with TMC on a 29-yard gain, which has been a theme with them playing. They connect on big plays downfield.
Logan Thomas caught 5 passes for 36 yards and a touchdown (from Brissett) on 6 targets. Curtis Samuel also drew 6 targets but was not effective with just one catch.
The remaining schedule features the 49ers at home. Praying for the Commanders’ defense.
With Brissett at QB the targets were as follows:
- Thomas – 4
- Dotson – 3
- Samuel – 2
- Crowder – 1
- Bates – 4
- McLaurin – 2
- Gibson – 1
Chicago Bears
Add Khalil Herbert, Hold Roschon Johnson
Khalil Herbert started and was the top performer in the rushing department with 112 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries on a backfield-high 51% snap share without D’Onta Foreman (out with a personal matter). Also saw 5 red-zone carries. It was not Roschon Johnson week in the slightest, who had 9 carries for 37 yards and was stuffed at the goal line. The rookie did three targets for 16 yards and played 46% of the snaps.
Justin Fields also excelled on the ground, contributing 97 yards and a touchdown on 9 carries, leading to a total of 250 rushing yards for the team.
Fields completed 15 of 27 passes for 170 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception through the air. The leading receiver was Cole Kmet, who caught 4 passes for 107 yards. D.J. Moore was kept quiet, with just 3 catches for 18 yards on 6 targets. Kmet sat out the 2nd half with a knee injury and Moore was also dealing with an ankle injury issue. If guys miss, look for Robert Tonyan as a potential plug-in pivot option.
Moore might be in for another disappointing outing in Week 17 versus the Falcons. They have allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards per game to opposing WRs this season. Moore has gone LESS than 66.5 yards in back-to-back games.
Next up, the Falcons at home. Tough matchup on the ground for Herbert.
Arizona Cardinals
Add Michael Wilson, Sell James Conner
James Conner led the rushing attack with 45 yards on 12 carries – 59% snap share – while Kyler Murray added 32 yards on 5 carries. Murray also completed 24 of 38 passes for 230 yards and 2 touchdowns. In the receiving department, Conner was the top performer with 67 yards and a touchdown on 5 receptions (5 targets). The Bears defense against RBs in the passing game is the gift that keeps on giving.
Greg Dortch and Emari Demercado (38% snap share) also contributed significantly, with Dortch grabbing 2 catches for 45 yards and a touchdown (5 targets) and Demercado catching 7 passes for 40 yards on 8 targets.
Trey McBride was held in check, with 6 catches for 31 yards on 8 targets (22%). Still, he’s the alpha in the passing game, so I’d bet he rebounds versus the Eagles – 27th in DVOA versus tight ends this season. I like the MORE THAN on his 61.5 receiving yards. He has 60 receiving yards in 4 of his last 6 games. The Eagles have allowed exactly 61.5 yards to opposing tight ends over the last four weeks.
Michael Wilson led the team in routes run and a 90% snap share but air-balled on 4 targets (71 air yards, 32% air yards share). Woof. Add him to the plus-matchup next week.
The Cardinals face PHI next on the road. We should see a pass-heavy script from Arizona against the Eagles’ horrible secondary that is allowing the 3rd-most passing yards per game to QBs. Philadelphia has also been a home to overs hitting an extremely high rate. Take the More than on Murray’s 223.5 passing yards prop this week on Prizepicks.
Miami Dolphins
Sell Raheem Mostert, Drop Jeff Wilson Jr., Add Cedrick Wilson, Drop Dolphins DST
Raheem Mostert led the rushing attack with 46 yards on 11 carries, while the team’s overall running game accumulated 91 yards. De’Von Achane was limited to just 7 carries for 24 yards, but was used more as a receiver with 3 targets. Note that Achane was running a ton of routes while out-snapping Mostert 55% to 29%. Jeff Wilson Jr. also played more with a 23% snap share and 2 red-zone carries. If Mostert can’t score next week, he might be a major bust. Wilson’s playing time bump might also be related to an undisclosed injury for Mostert.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa completed 24 out of 37 passes for 293 yards and a touchdown, showcasing an efficient passing game.
The receiving corps was led by Tyreek Hill, who caught 9 passes for 99 yards (14 targets). Durham Smythe and Jaylen Waddle also made significant contributions, with Smythe catching 5 passes for 56 yards (5 targets) and Waddle securing a 50-yard reception on his lone catch. Waddle left the game with a high-ankle sprain and will miss the remainder of the season.
Without Waddle, Robbie Chose stepped up in his absence but he suffered a concussion. Would expect the biggest bump in usage for Cedrick Wilson, who saw 5 targets and has made small impacts when Hill/Waddle have missed time this season. He played 62% of the snaps.
The Ravens on the road are next.
Dallas Cowboys
Hold Brandin Cooks
Tony Pollard led the ground attack with 38 rushing yards on 12 carries.
Dak Prescott added 25 yards on 5 carries, contributing to the team’s total of 97 rushing yards. Prescott was also effective through the air, completing 20 of 32 passes for 253 yards and 2 touchdowns, with no interceptions. CeeDee Lamb was the standout receiver, catching 6 passes for 118 yards and a touchdown (10 targets).
Jalen Tolbert and Jake Ferguson also made notable contributions in the receiving game. Tolbert caught a long ball for 45 yards. Ferguson exposed the bad Dolphins defense vs tight ends, with 4 catches for 45 yards on 8 targets. Brandin Cooks scored one touchdown on 1 of his 4 targets. He tends to play better in domes, so I don’t hate his Week 17 matchup.
Dallas hosts the Lions to wrap up the fantasy football season. Should be a high-scoring affair at home, which is why I LOVE the MORE THAN on Dak Prescott‘s 275.5 passing yards. The Lions have allowed the second-most passing yards to QBs over the last four weeks (281/game). Dak has gone over 270 yards in his last five home games.
In those same games, Lamb has gone over 100 yards or more in three of them. I like the MORE THAN Lamb’s 90.5 receiving yards this week on Prizepicks versus the Lions. They rank 5th-worst in yards to WRs in their last four games allowing 185 yards per game to opposing WRs. They are also the 7th-worst defense against slot WRs, where Lamb runs 60-65% of his routes.
Denver Broncos
Sell Javonte Williams, Add Samaje Perine, Jerry Jeudy,
In the Broncos’ Christmas Eve game, the rushing attack was led by Jaleel McLaughlin with 37 yards on 6 carries. Javonte Williams also contributed with a touchdown among his 24 yards from 11 carries (3 targets, but 7 routes run). The Patriots’ defense cannot be run on by opposing RBs.
Quarterback Russell Wilson completed 25 out of 37 passes for 238 yards and 2 touchdowns, showing a solid performance.
The receiving group was led by Marvin Mims and Brandon Johnson, who both made significant contributions, with Mims catching 3 passes for 63 yards (4 targets) and Johnson adding 47 yards and a touchdown (5 targets). Mims only played 43% of the snaps still. Johnson was 2nd in routes run and saw the largest role increase with Sutton out due to a head injury.
Jerry Jeudy and McLaughlin (5 targets) also played key roles in the receiving game. Nobody saw more than 5 targets.
Jeudy was non-existent till the end of the game despite leading the WRs in routes run, but finished with 3 catches for 44 yards on 5 targets. 110 air yards.
Samaje Perine was also targeted 5 times. The backfield is still a three-headed mess. Williams was limited to just a 39% snap share, followed by Perine (35%) and McLaughlin at 25%.
Williams saw all the red-zone work – 7 red-zone carries – as he is more-or-less a TD-dependent RB.
Courtland Sutton got knocked out of the game with an injury. 13% snap share.
The Schedule remains favorable versus the Chargers in Week 17. It’s a great matchup for Jeudy, but it’s risky based on his sheer lack of production this season. Woof.
New England Patriots
Hold Ezekiel Elliott, Add Demario Douglas, Avoid DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki
Ezekiel Elliott led the team with 27 yards from 12 attempts on an 83% snap share. The passing game, however, was more successful. Quarterback Bailey Zappe completed 25 out of 33 attempts for 256 yards and 2 touchdowns. The receiving end was led by Demario Douglas with 5 receptions for 74 yards (8 targets, lead team in routes run, 82 air yards), closely followed by DeVante Parker who caught 4 passes for 65 yards (5 targets). Elliott also contributed significantly to the receiving game, catching 9 passes for 33 yards and a touchdown. His receiving role with Zappe at QB is elite.
Mike Gesicki also scored a TD with Hunter Herny out of the starting lineup. But he only played 66% of the snaps and saw 2 targets. Don’t chase.
Next up for the 4-win Patriots, at the Bills – who they beat earlier this season.
Kansas City Chiefs
Buy Rashee Rice, Buy Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Patrick Mahomes led the rushing attack with 53 yards on 10 carries. Isiah Pacheco added 26 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries but left the game with an injury. Add Clyde Edwards-Helaire as the next man up (3 targets on Christmas). Jerick McKinnon is also on IR. CEH has a dream matchup versus the Bengals’ horrible run defense in Week 17.
Mahomes completed 27 of 44 passes for 235 yards, including one touchdown and one interception.
Receiving: Rashee Rice caught 6 passes for 57 yards on a team-high 12 targets (53% air yards share, 295 target share).
Richie James Jr. (3 targets) and Travis Kelce (7 targets) added 54 and 44 receiving yards, respectively.
Justin Watson scored a touchdown on one of his 4 catches (6 targets). 64% snap share ranked 3 among Chiefs WRs. Justyn Ross also played 13% of the snaps. Marquez Valdes-Scantling played the majority of WR snaps – 80% – but did nothing per usual.
Next Week: At home vs CIN. What could have been?
Las Vegas Raiders
Hold Davante Adams, Sell Jakobi Meyers, Add Zamir White
Zamir White led with 145 yards on 22 carries with Josh Jacobs ruled out before game time. He saw 1 target but also played 76% of the snaps.
Ameer Abdullah and Tre Tucker contributed with 11 and 5 yards, respectively.
Rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell completed 9 of 21 passes for 62 yards. The Raiders focused heavily on their running game, with White being the standout performer. The passing game was less effective in this matchup.
Receiving: Jakobi Meyers was the leading receiver with 42 yards on 3 catches (5 targets).
Austin Hooper played all the snaps with Michael Mayer OUT (89% snap share). Carter Fotheringham also contributed 6 yards.
Davante Adams and Abdullah made modest gains in receiving yards. Adams BOMBED with just one catch for 4 yards on 7 targets (82 air yards, 32% target share). The game script did not work in his favor.
They face the Colts on the road in Week 17. Adams should rebound in a better matchup.
Philadelphia Eagles
Buy/Hold D’Andre Swift, Add Kenneth Gainwell
D’Andre Swift led the rushing attack with 92 yards on 20 carries, scoring one touchdown while playing 57% of the snaps. Kenneth Gainwell added 41 yards on 6 carries, and Jalen Hurts contributed 34 yards and a touchdown on 8 carries. Swift was not targeted but saw 4 red-zone carries, while Gainwell saw 3 targets (40% snap share).
Hurts completed 24 of 38 passes for 301 yards, throwing one touchdown and one interception.
A.J. Brown was the top receiver with 6 receptions for 80 yards (11 targets). DeVonta Smith had 79 yards and a touchdown on 4 catches (5 targets), and Dallas Goedert contributed 71 yards on 7 receptions (9 targets).
Philly has the Cardinals next at home.
New York Giants
Add Wan’Dale Robinson/Darius Slayton, Sell Saquon Barkley, Sell Darren Waller
Saquon Barkley led the ground game with 80 yards on 23 carries, scoring one touchdown. Tyrod Taylor added 21 yards on 2 carries.
Taylor also completed 7 of 16 passes for 133 yards, including one touchdown and one interception. Tommy DeVito added 55 yards on 9 of 16 passing but was benched in the second half.
Darius Slayton was the top receiver with 90 yards and a touchdown on 3 catches (3 targets). He played the most snaps among WRs (94%).
Daniel Bellinger (4-for-43) and Darren Waller (2-32 on 5 targets). Both played 63% of the snaps. Waller has yet to completely take back his full-time role.
Wan ‘Dale Robinson (71% snap share) was the leading target earner with 7 targets (26% target share).
With Taylor at QB in the second half, the targets on his 16 pass attempts were as follows:
- Slayton – 2
- Barkley – 4
- Waller – 3
- Bellinger – 1
- Robinson – 4 (25% target share)
The Rams are next for the Giants at home. Tough matchup for Barkley as a rusher. Its a better matchup for the Giants WRs.
San Francisco 49ers
Hold Deebo Samuel, Buy Brandon Aiyuk, Hold George Kittle
Christian McCaffrey led the team with 103 yards on 14 carries, including a long run of 39 yards and a touchdown. CMC was also targeted 10 times, catching 6 balls for 28 yards.
Passing: Brock Purdy completed 18 of 32 attempts for 255 yards but threw 4 interceptions. Sam Darnold entered the game late after Purdy got hurt, throwing for 81 passing yards on 8 completions out of 14 attempts, including a touchdown to Ronnie Bell and an interception.
George Kittle was the top receiver with 7 receptions for 126 yards. Brandon Aiyuk followed closely with 113 yards on 6 catches and 7 targets (a ton of which came much later in the game). Deebo Samuel also contributed with 47 receiving yards on just 4 receptions despite 12 targets (27% target share).
The 49ers play at the Commanders to close out the season. Consider the nation’s capital under attack. Expect the 49ers offense to bounce back after a Christmas letdown.
Baltimore Ravens
Add Justice Hill, Gus Edwards, Buy Zay Flowers, Hold Isaiah Likely
Lamar Jackson led with 7 carries for 45 yards. Gus Edwards contributed a touchdown among his 31 rushing yards on 9 carries (43% snap share). Justice Hill added 26 yards on 10 carries while leading the Ravens RBs in snap share (62%). Hill also caught 3 passes for 31 yards on 3 targets.
Jackson also completed 23 out of 35 passes for 252 yards, achieving 2 touchdowns without any interceptions. The longest pass completion was 39 yards.
Zay Flowers had 9 receptions for 72 yards and a touchdown (13 targets, 38% target share). Isaiah Likely contributed significantly with 56 receiving yards (4 targets). Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor all played 54% of the snaps. Agholor scored, but they all saw 3-plus targets. Beckham also had 2 red-zone targets but did not score.
The Ravens host the Dolphins to close out the season.
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