Welcome to Week 16 of the NFL, a pivotal moment for fantasy football enthusiasts as we enter the heart of the fantasy playoffs! In this thrilling phase of the season, I’m here to equip you with the latest edition of the 2023 usage report, packed with essential tips for fantasy managers.
As trade deadlines have passed, our focus shifts from traditional buy/sell strategies to a “stock up/stock down” approach for Weeks 16-18. Expect more direct DFS and Prizepicks advice for those seeking extra excitement beyond season-long leagues if you are no longer in the running.
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Now, let’s dive into the Week 16 Fantasy Football Forecast and explore the crucial snap counts!
Week 15 Fantasy Football Snap Counts?
To get ready for #NFL Week 16?
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) December 18, 2023
And at the top – as it is stash DST season – I will list out the top DSTs ROS per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
Top DSTs: Jets, Packers, Eagles, Bears
Bottom DSTs: Dolphins, Ravens, Saints
Fantasy Football Forecast
Las Vegas Raiders
Hold Davante Adams, Sell Jakobi Meyers, Add Zamir White, Michael Mayer
Aidan O’Connell led the passing attack with 248 yards and 4 TDs, while Jakobi Meyers (88% snap count) added a passing TD in the second half. But other than the throwing and receiving TDs…Meyers saw just 2 targets, catching 2 for 32 yards.
Zamir White (70% snap count) led the rushing with 69 yards and a TD on 17 carries while drawing the start due to Josh Jacobs’ injury. White also caught 3 passes for 16 yards on 4 targets as he ran the most routes out of the backfield (21, 57%).
He operated as the clear bell cow. Ameer Abdullah caught his 2 targets for 13 yards and rushed 6 times for 32 yards while playing a 27% snap share. Brandon Bolden carried the ball twice for 25 yards and 1 TD (2 snaps).
The receiving usage is encouraging for White, as his role likely won’t be as desirable if the Raiders are chasing points versus the Chiefs/Colts offenses in the next 2 weeks.
The Raiders receiving corps was led by Davante Adams (81% snap count), who had 101 yards and a TD on 12 targets (35.3% Target share), followed by Tre Tucker (45% snap count) with 59 yards and 2 TDs on 4 targets (11.8% Target share).
Tucker’s role on offense increased tremendously from the previous, with him playing ahead of Hunter Renfrow (0 catches on 2 targets). The two split routes are dead even as the Raiders WR3.
Would assume the rookie gets more playing time after the big game for the remainder of the season with him in their future plans.
Tight end Michael Mayer (64% snap count) also contributed with 39 yards and a TD on 4 catches (5 targets). Although his usage was overall meh, he ran a route on 59% of the dropbacks. He’s a decent streaming option in Weeks 16 and 17. But not ideal with the toughest overall schedule remaining for fantasy tight ends via the SOS tool.
They face the Chiefs and Colts over their next 2 games.
Los Angeles Chargers
Add Isaiah Spiller, Drop Joshua Kelley, Sell Austin Ekeler, Avoid Quentin Johnston, Add Joshua Palmer
In total garbage time, Easton Stick led the passing with 257 yards and 3 TDs. The rushing was modest, with Isaiah Spiller (37% snap count) leading the team with 50 rushing yards on 16 attempts. Spiller also led the team in carries in the first half – 5 for 16 yards. It was much more split in the first half with the RB carries similar to Week 14.
Joshua Kelley played just 23% of the snaps, and saw 5 carries for 22 yards.
WR Josh Palmer (72% snap count) stood out in receiving with 113 yards and a TD on 4 targets (12.9% Target share). He caught a 79-yard TD, but he was involved throughout the game in his first game back from a knee injury.
Add him with the No. 1 schedule for WR remaining per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
Quentin Johnston is over folks. He had 3 total targets in a game that Keenan Allen missed entirely. Don’t be fooled by the smelliest garbage-time TD of all time. He ran the most routes and barely did anything. Again. 5 targets through two games with Stick at QB.
Gerald Everett (63% snap count) also contributed with 41 yards on 8 targets (25.8% Target share). Donald Parham Jr. did not play, and Everett saw his high-end usage carry over from last week. Ran a route on 67% of the dropbacks. Mt. Everett has 12 targets from Stick over the last two weeks.
Austin Ekeler (40% snap count) had a quieter game, gaining 29 yards on 6 targets (19.4% Target share) but with just 9 rushing yards on 5 carries. Ekeler has lost command as the leading rusher in the backfield and his fantasy value is solely tied to what he can do as a receiver out of the backfield. He has a 20% Target share with Stick under center this season.
Still, I would not be shocked to see Spiller lead the team in total carries over the remainder of the season. Ekeler will be a free agent at the end of the season.
Bet the Ekeler under rushing props from here on out.
Remaining schedule: Bills and Broncos.
Minnesota Vikings
Add Ty Chandler, Nick Mullens, Hold Jordan Addison, Sell Alexander Mattison
Ty Chandler was a standout for fantasy football managers, rushing 23 times for 132 yards and scoring one touchdown (81% snap share). He had an impressive average of 5.7 yards per carry, with his longest run being 30 yards. He was also targeted 4 times (12% Target share), catching 3 balls for 25 yards in addition to seeing 3 red-zone carries.
With this performance besting any game by Alexander Mattison this season, I’d imagine Chandler will RB1 the rest of the season even if Mattison is healthy enough to play next week. In this game, Kene Nwangwu had 1 carry for 1 yard.
The team’s passing game was primarily led by Nick Mullens, who completed 26 of 33 passes for 303 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Not great, but good enough to move the ball and support fantasy weapons. Also, he has the No. 1 schedule for QBs remaining per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
In the receiving department, rookie Jordan Addison led with 6 catches for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Justin Jefferson made 7 receptions for 84 yards.
Jefferson was targeted 10 times giving him a Target share of 29.4%. Saw 52% of the team’s air yards.
Addison received 6 targets, accounting for about 17.6% of the total pass attempts.
The rookie remains super-efficient with his opportunities, which is why I love him MORE THAN his egregiously low receiving number set at 41.5 yards on Prizepicks. He’s gone over this number in 10/14 games played this season (71%) including in Mullens’ first start last week. Only once in 6 games played with a fully healthy Jefferson has Addison come under 41.5 yards, totaling no less than 52 yards.
T.J. Hockenson also contributed with 6 receptions for 63 yards. Hockenson was targeted 7 times, which represents a 21% Target share.
These pass-catchers should FEAST against Detroit in Week 16. Makes Mullens – $5,300 on DraftKings – firmly in play.
The Lions and Packers are next for the Vikings.
Cincinnati Bengals
Sell Joe Mixon, Add Chase Brown, Tyler Boyd, Tanner Hudson
Joe Mixon led the rushing attack with 47 yards on 10 carries, scoring one touchdown. Mixon added 3 catches for 14 yards on 3 targets.
Chase Brown contributed as a running back, carrying the ball 7 times for a total of 23 yards, averaging 3.3 yards per carry. His longest run was 6 yards and he also had 3 targets.
The rookie is getting more work these last 3 weeks, with Week 15 representing a 13-10 touch difference. And that was Mixon playing 70% of the snaps.
In the passing game, Jake Browning completed 29 of 42 attempts for 324 yards, throwing two touchdowns and one interception.
Tee Higgins was the standout receiver with 61 yards and two touchdowns on 8 targets (20% Target share) and 4 catches, while Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd also made significant contributions. Higgins saw 165 air yards.
Chase had 64 receiving yards, catching all 4 targets (9.5% Target share), and Boyd added 53 yards on 5 targets (11.9% Target share), but on just 2 receptions. Boyd has been hardly trustworthy, but there’s no denying that a Chase absence would boost his involvement. Especially in a great matchup versus the Steelers slot-funnel defense. Add him off waivers.
Tanner Hudson had 5 targets, catching all 5 for 49 yards and Mitchell Wilcox caught 2 for 20 yards. Hudson doesn’t play a lot of snaps but continues to get targeted when playing.
Irv Smith Jr. had 3 targets with 2 receptions for 18 yards, while Sample was targeted once but did not have any receptions.
The Bengals’ overall offensive performance was balanced between the run and pass.
Still, the Bengals did not escape with the OT win without some casualties. Chase left the game with a separated shoulder injury. Woof. Andrei Iosivas would see the most playing time as Chase’s direct backup.
Stud interior defender D.J. Reader will also miss the rest of the season. The Bengals will be an easy team to run without Reader.
The reeling Pittsburgh Steelers are next. Then it’s the Chiefs in the fantasy football championships.
Indianapolis Colts
Add Trey Sermon, Buy Josh Downs, Avoid Alec Pierce, Add Colts DST
Trey Sermon led the rushing with 88 yards on 17 carries, while Tyler Goodson added 69 yards over 11 carries. Goodson saw 3 carries in the red zone.
Sermon played 43% of the snaps. Goodson was 28%.
Zack Moss was knocked out of the game early on, although he caught a TD before he exited the contest with a arm injury.
Don’t be overly aggressive targeting any of these other Colts RBs off waivers, as Jonathan Taylor is expected to return from his thumb injury in Week 16.
Quarterback Gardner Minshew completed 18 of 28 passes for 215 yards and three touchdowns, without any interceptions. Michael Pittman Jr. was the top receiver, catching 4 passes for 78 yards on 5 targets. And he didn’t even play the full game. Pittman got knocked out of the game after taking a brutal hit over the middle of the field. He did not return due to a concussion.
D.J. Montgomery and Mo Alie-Cox each caught a touchdown pass, with Montgomery totaling 48 yards (4 targets) and Alie-Cox adding 21 yards on 2 catches (3 targets).
Josh Downs did not step up in Pittman’s absence. To my chagrin. 3 for 19 yards (3 targets). Alec Pierce led the team with 5 targets but caught one ball for 13 yards. Don’t trust Pierce if Pittman misses Week 16. Trust in Downs, even though he has struggled the last few weeks. Great matchup for him in the slot versus Atlanta.
Montgomery will likely struggle even in a full-time role, should Pittman not be cleared by Sunday.
Andrew Ogletree played the most TE snaps.
The Colts will play the Falcons and Raiders to close the fantasy season. Their DST is very much in play for the playoffs.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Add Pat Freiermuth, Hold Diontae Johnson, Jaylen Warren, Sell Najee Harris, George Pickens
In the Steelers’ game, Jaylen Warren led the rushing attack with 40 yards on 10 carries, while Najee Harris added 33 yards over 12 carries. Harris also lost a fumble and saw zero targets. Warren tallied 5 catches for 28 yards on 6 targets (23% Target share).
He also doubled the snaps of Harris. Given the offensive struggles of the Steelers, I think they might let Warren loose down the stretch. His 69% snap share was by far his season high. Harris played just 34% of the snaps.
Quarterback Mitch Trubisky completed 16 of 23 passes for 169 yards, scoring one touchdown and throwing two interceptions. He was benched at the end of the game for Mason Rudolph. Tis the season. Rudolph was named the starter for Week 16.
Diontae Johnson was the top receiver with 62 yards, 4 receptions and a touchdown on 6 targets (23% Target share). 3 straight games with a receiving TD from Trubisky. Is that all it took for DJ to find the end zone? All this time!?
George Pickens followed with 47 yards and 3 receptions on 7 targets (27% Target share, 56% air yards share).
The team’s total passing yardage amounted to 172 yards. Woof.
Allen Robinson was targeted thrice, while Pat Freiermuth caught 3 passes for 16 yards (4 targets). Freiermuth hardly did anything in the box score, but his usage was still great for another week. Ran a route on 87% of dropbacks. Elite matchup in Week 16. Buy low or add him if he gets dropped on waivers.
The Steelers’ upcoming schedule: The Bengals and Seahawks.
Detroit Lions
Hold/Buy David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Add Jameson Williams
Jahmyr Gibbs led with 100 yards on 11 carries, including a long run of 34 yards and a touchdown. David Montgomery added 85 yards on 17 carries.
Gibbs played 48% of the snaps to Monty’s 52%, while the duo split routes dead even. Encouraging in the positive game script that Gibbs was still heavily involved. Got by on uber-efficiency and earned 3 red-zone carries. Monty had two red-zone carries.
Jared Goff completed 24 of 34 passes for 278 yards and 5 touchdowns, with a rating of 134.6.
Amon-Ra St. Brown was the top receiver with 7 receptions for 112 yards and a touchdown. Sam LaPorta had 5 receptions for 56 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jahmyr Gibbs also contributed with a receiving touchdown.
Target shares for the receivers were:
Amon-Ra St. Brown: 9 targets (28.1%)
Sam LaPorta: 6 targets (18.75%)
Jameson Williams: 7 targets (22% Target share and 40% air yards share). He was more involved in catching 4 balls for 47 yards. Ran a route on 72% of the dropbacks as the clear-cut WR2. Also saw 100-plus air yards. $3,700 on DraftKings in Week 16.
Josh Reynolds: 3 targets (9.4%). 2 for 41 yards. Operated as the WR3.
Kalif Raymond (1), Gibbs (2) and Montgomery (3) shared the remaining targets.
The Vikings and Cowboys are following up for the Lions.
Denver Broncos
Sell Javonte Williams, Add Samaje Perine, Jerry Jeudy, Hold Courtland Sutton
Samaje Perine (39% snap share) led the rushing with 6 carries for 37 yards (1 target).
Javonte Williams (48% snap share) followed with 12 carries for 27 yards against a stout Lions run defense. Williams only caught two passes on 2 targets. Both top RBs tallied 2 red-zone carries.
Jaleel McLaughlin had 3 targets – and came also very close to scoring – with 2 carries (12% snap share).
The 3-headed committee makes Juggernaut Javonte tough to trust if he can’t find the end zone.
Russell Wilson completed 18 out of 32 passes for 223 yards, including a touchdown. He was sacked twice.
Jerry Jeudy earned 7 targets (22% Target share). Courtland Sutton received 6 targets, accounting for about 19% Target share.
Jeudy caught 3 passes for 74 yards and Sutton 5 for 71 yards. Lil’Jordan Humphrey scored the lone receiving touchdown. Humphrey had 4 targets.
These were the top 3 Denver WRs in usage for the second straight game. Jeudy’s route participation remains middling at best (69%). Marvin Mims is a distant WR4. Woof.
Adam Trautman was targeted 3 times, 9.4% Target share. But he ran fewer routes than Lucas Krull.
The Schedule remains is the Patriots (on Christmas Eve night no less) and Chargers. Top-5 ROS for QBs per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
New England Patriots
Hold Ezekiel Elliott, Add Hunter Henry, Demario Douglas, Avoid JuJu Smith-Schuster/Devante Parker
Ezekiel Elliott led the team with 25 rushing yards on 11 attempts. Kevin Harris scored a touchdown on one of his 4 carries, totaling 25 yards as he entered later in the game. He had a big run to get near the goal line and the Patriots rewarded him with the GL touch. Still completely Zeke’s backfield. 87% snap share.
Receiving: Hunter Henry was the leading receiver with 66 yards on 7 receptions, including a touchdown. Almost caught a 2nd TD, but it was called back.
Devante Parker followed with 44 yards on 5 catches. Led the team in WR snaps played (91%) with JuJu Smith-Schuster inactive.
Henry was targeted 9 times, representing approximately 29% of the team’s pass attempts. But he took several shots in this game and was questionable to return with a knee injury. If he’s healthy he can be started against the Denver Broncos, who rank last in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season. If not…Mike Gesicki will be a streaming candidate among tight ends.
Parker and Demario Douglas each had 5 targets, accounting for roughly 16% of the pass attempts each. Douglas played 72% of the snaps in his first game back from injury.
Note that the Parker/Smith-Schuster rotate good games based on the other being injured. Douglas is the only Pats WR I’d “trust” against Denver. No.1 schedule ROS for WRs. Also No. 1 schedule for RBs remaining per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
And a week after Tyquan Thornton ran ALL the routes, he ran 7 out of 35 dropbacks. Woof.
Ezekiel Elliott received 6 targets (about 19%). Zeke’s receiving role remains extremely fantasy-valuable with Bailey Zappe at QB.
Next up for the 3-win Patriots, the Broncos and Bills.
Kansas City Chiefs
Buy Rashee Rice, Hold/Buy Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Sell Kadarius Toney
Clyde Edwards-Helaire led with 37 yards on 13 carries and 2 red-zone carries. Caught 4 passes. Edwards-Helaire also contributed significantly with 64 receiving yards and a touchdown.
Rushing is underwhelming, but he got a bump in overall touches and snaps versus last week. Great matchups coming up for him if Isiah Pacheco continues to miss time. The expectation is that Pacheco will return in Week 16.
Jerick McKinnon had 3 targets.
Patrick Mahomes completed 27 out of 37 passes for 305 yards, achieving 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He was plagued by more drops by KC WRs.
Kadarius Toney had more hilarious drops (4 targets) – one resulting in an interception. Don’t understand why they keep putting him out there. Whatever his props are next week, smash the unders on them.
Rookie Rashee Rice had 9 receptions for 91 yards and a touchdown (100% catch rate). He has been FULLY unlocked. 92% snap share led all Chiefs skill players. Unequivocally, the No. 1 pass-game option.
Rice was targeted 9 times – thrice in the red zone – representing a significant portion of the team’s pass attempts. He is the focal point of the passing game when defenses look to take away Travis Kelce, who is dealing with an elbow injury.
Edwards-Helaire (62% snap share) and Travis Kelce also received notable target shares with 4 and 7 targets, respectively. Kelce was targeted thrice in the end zone, but didn’t score. Sorry Swifties.
Next 2 Weeks: LV and CIN.
Other KC WRs. Justin Watson was 2nd in routes run. Then it was Toney, MVS and Skyy Moore (who fumbled and has been placed on IR). Don’t expect the RB usage in the passing game to disappear anytime soon.
The desperation add should be Richie James Jr. who should see his playing time increase.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Add Cade Otton, Hold Chris Godwin, Buy Mike Evans, Rachaad White
Rachaad White led with 21 carries for 89 yards. White also had 2 targets, 2 receptions, 50 yards, and 1 touchdown. 81% snap share. Chase Edmonds is the direct handcuff to White.
Baker Mayfield completed 22 out of 28 passes for 381 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Chris Godwin was the No. 1 target with 12 targets, 10 receptions, 155 yards. 44% Target share and air yards share.
David Moore: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 68 yards, 1 touchdown.
Mike Evans: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 57 yards, 1 touchdown.
Cade Otton: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 44 yards. 90% snap share.
Trey Palmer: 2 targets, 1 reception, 5 yards. 56% snap share.
Ko Kieft: 1 target, 1 reception, 2 yards, 1 touchdown.
The Jaguars and Saints are next for TB.
Another great matchup for this passing game to COOK versus the Jaguars. Add Baker Mayfield if you need a streaming QB in the fantasy football semifinals. He’s $6,000 on DraftKings in Week 16. Take the MORE than for Mayfield’s 229.5 passing yards prop versus the Jags.
Only 3 QBs they have faced this season have NOT gone over their passing yards projection. And correlate the play with his No. 1 WR, Mike Evans. He has gone over 63.5 receiving yards in his last 3 home games.
Green Bay Packers
Buy Jayden Reed, Aaron Jones Hold Christian Watson, Add GB DST, Add Tucker Kraft, Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs
Quarterback Jordan Love completed 29 of 39 passes for 284 yards and 2 touchdowns, showcasing an efficient aerial attack. The running game was less prominent, with Aaron Jones leading with 53 yards on 13 carries without A.J. Dillon inactive. Note that Jones saw all the red-zone usage with 5 carries inside the 20-yard line. Jones was also targeted 4 times, made 4 receptions (48% snap share).
The fact that he got through this game healthy with 17 carries is GREAT for fantasy managers. If Dillon misses another week, he could be set up to smash Carolina in Week 16.
However, be wary that an extremely chalky Jones in DFS might be a strong fade. A return for Dillon would hurt Jones’ red-zone role. Also, the Panthers are bad versus rushing RBs, not receiving RBs. The Panthers are No. 1 in DVOA vs RBs in the passing game.
In receiving, Dontayvion Wicks had an impressive game with 97 yards on 6 receptions (7 targets, 19% Target share), while Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed each caught a touchdown pass (2 red-zone targets).
Wicks played 78% of the snaps and also fumbled. He is the 1-for-1 replacement for Christian Watson.
Kraft was targeted 6 times, and made 4 receptions. Played 95% of the snaps. Elite tight end role.
Reed was Targeted 8 times (22% Target share), and made 6 receptions. He had 9 targets with penalties included. And he only played 42% of the snaps after exiting with a foot injury.
Romeo Doubs/Malik Heath: Targeted 3 times, and made 3 receptions. Doubs played the most WR snaps (90%).
Malik Heath: Targeted 3 times, and made 3 receptions. No. 3 RB Patrick Taylor: Targeted 2 times, made 2 receptions. He plays snaps (43%) but doesn’t touch the ball in the game usually.
The Panthers and Vikings are next for the GB Packers. Note the easy playoff schedule. Add the DST and the talented crop of playmakers at Love’s disposal.
Note the matchup against Carolina favors the Packers’ running game versus their passing game.
Atlanta Falcons
Buy Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Add Falcons DST, Tyler Allgeier
The Falcons had a challenging time on the ground, managing only 52 yards rushing. Bijan Robinson – ya hate to see it. 58% snap share. 7 carries for just 11 yards. Lost a fumble. Woof. 3 targets but only one catch. Also had a drop. Robinson also had 1 red-zone carry.
Tyler Allgeier led the backfield with 45 yards on 14 carries (50% snap share). 9 in the first half to Bijan’s 5 for 10 yards.
Cordarrelle Patterson came away with the lone receiving TD score in the loss (3 targets) and one red-zone carry. 27% snap share.
Their passing game, with Desmond Ridder at the helm, accumulated 152 yards and one touchdown. He threw a backbreaking interception in the red zone.
Jonnu Smith made a significant impact with 61 receiving yards on 2 catches (2 targets).
Kyle Pitts: 4 targets, 20% Target share. Drake London: 3 targets, 15% Target share. Woof.
The Falcons’ playoff schedule remains Indianapolis and the Bears from Weeks 16-17. The Atlanta DST is stash-worthy. Also, it’s the No. 1 schedule for RBs remaining per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
I know that everybody hates the Falcons right now. But this team is SO matchup-dependent. In Carolina in horrible weather with Desmond Ridder – without OL Chris Lindstrom not playing – the results in hindsight aren’t shocking.
But playing the Colts’ team that drives games into overs at one of the highest rates in the NFL…you have to buy the dip all around.
Bijan is $6,300 on DraftKings in Week 16 against a defense that ranks 30th in PPR points allowed to RBs this season.
London’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards on Prizepicks. We are 2-0 correctly calling the London games, and this is a spot where we want the over. He’s back at home versus a softer pass defense.
Drake London has gone over 48.5 yards in his last 5 home games, compiling no less than 67 yards in any contest.
Carolina Panthers
Hold Chuba Hubbard, Sell Jonathan Mingo, Drop Adam Thielen
The team’s running game showed a decent performance with Chuba Hubbard leading the rushing attack with 87 yards on 22 carries. 73% snap share. Bell cow.
Underpriced at $5,700 on DraftKings for Week 16.
The passing game, led by Bryce Young, was for 167 yards, though no touchdowns were thrown. Adam Thielen was the leading receiver with 43 yards on 4 receptions on 7 targets (30% Target share). Leads the team in targets every week, but does little to nothing with it.
Jonathan Mingo: 5 targets, 22%
Tommy Tremble and D.J. Chark: 2 targets each, 8.7% each. Tremble played the most tight end snaps (83%).
Chuba Hubbard, Miles Sanders, and Ihmir Smith-Marsette: 2 targets each, 8.7% each. Green Bay is next for the Panthers.
Expect more running of the football with a team that is looking to hide their QB any chance they can get. The Packers are the No. 1 run-funnel defense in the league. Overs on all the Hubbard props this week. 65.5 rushing yards over on Prizepicks for Week 16? Child, please. Over in 3 straight games.
New Orleans Saints
Avoid Juwan Johnson, Sell Alvin Kamara, Add Rashid Shaheed
Alvin Kamara led the game with 66 yards on 16 carries and 3 red-zone carries. 52% snap share.
Jamaal Williams (47% snap share) contributed 24 yards on 8 carries. Kamara: 5 targets (17.2%). Kamara again led with 44 receiving yards on 5 catches.
Continues to cede work to Williams in an underrated RBBC split. Would be looking to fade Kamara’s rushing totals against a tough Rams defense on Thursday night.
Only one carry for Taysom Hill (1 target). Low snap share for Hill after he returned from injury. He was 3rd in routes compared to the other Saints TEs.
Foster Moreau (TE): 73%
Lynn Bowden Jr. (WR): 60%
Rashid Shaheed (WR): 58%
Alvin Kamara (RB): 52%
Jamaal Williams (RB): 47%
Juwan Johnson (TE): 44%
A.T. Perry (WR): 42%
Keith Kirkwood (WR): 40%
Marquez Callaway (WR): 21%
Taysom Hill (QB): 19%
Jimmy Graham (TE): 16%— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) December 18, 2023
Derek Carr completed 23 out of 28 passes for 218 yards, throwing 3 touchdowns without Chris Olave in the lineup.
Juwan Johnson (2 catches) and Rashid Shaheed (3 catches on 4 targets) also made significant contributions with 38 and 36 yards, respectively. Shaheed did not see an expanded role with Chris Olave out but led the team in routes run (22). Could see opportunities if Olave is limited on Thursday night versus a defense that allows a lot of production to perimeter WRs. They also play a ton of zone coverage and boast one of the worst PFF grade defending in zone this season. Shaheed is the Saints primary zone beater and played 88% of his snaps out-wide in Week 15.
Foster Moreau and Lynn Bowden Jr. each received 5 targets, accounting for 18% of target shares. Moreau was the Saints TE1 in snaps played (73%). Hyper-targeted on just 13 routes run. One of these tight ends might score on Thursday night. Your guess is as good as mine.
Bowden led the Saints in WR snaps played for the 3rd straight game. But he only ran 13 routes out of 30 Derek Carr dropbacks.
A.T. Perry and Keith Kirkwood split WR3 duties.
LA Rams (TNF) and Tampa Bay round out the fantasy playoffs.
New York Giants
Add Wan’Dale Robinson/Darius Slayton, Sell Saquon Barkley, Add Darren Waller
Tommy DeVito led with 36 yards on 4 carries, while Saquon Barkley added 14 yards on 9 carries. Barkley played a very rare 50% snap share. Didn’t play on the final offensive drive. 4 touches in the second half.
Passing: DeVito completed 20 out of 34 passes for 177 yards. Tyrod Taylor also saw some action, adding 13 yards on 2 completions after DeVito went to the locker room briefly.
Darius Slayton was the top receiver with 63 yards on 4 catches (saw over 100 air yards). 95% snap share.
Darren Waller and Wan’Dale Robinson (85% snap share) contributed 40 and 25 yards, respectively. Each caught 4 passes. Both Giants WRs are in play in deeper formats versus Philly’s bad pass defense in Week 16.
Overall target shares for the receivers:
- Darius Slayton: 8 targets (24% Target share).
- Darren Waller: 6 targets (18%). Was hyper-targeted as he only played 42% of the snaps.
- Wan’Dale Robinson: 4 targets (10.5%).
- Saquon Barkley: 2 targets (5.3%).
- Daniel Bellinger: 2 targets (5.3%).
- Matt Breida: 3 targets (7.9%).
- Lawrence Cager: 1 target (2.6%).
- Evan Gray: 4 targets (10.5%).
- Jalin Hyatt: 3 targets (7.9%).
- Isaiah Hodgins: 1 target (2.6%).
Philadelphia/Rams are next for the Giants. Tougher matchups for the ground game could make life difficult for Saquon Barkley. It’s the No. 1 worst-schedule for RBs remaining per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
Good matchups for Waller.
New York Jets
Buy Garrett Wilson, Sell Breece Hall
The New York Jets’ offense struggled significantly.
They managed only 23 rushing yards, with Breece Hall having 6 carries for 12 yards and Israel Abanikanda adding 4 carries for 8 yards. Abanikanda came in to the game around the 3rd quarter. So not full-blown garbage time for the rookie. He ate into Hall’s targets and routes as a result. Concerning as Hall’s fantasy appeal is 100% tied to his work as a receiver. Hall was in for 40% of the offensive plays.
Dalvin Cook had 1 carry. Hall had one catch for 6 yards on 2 targets.
The passing game also underperformed, with quarterbacks Trevor Siemian and Zach Wilson combining for only 136 yards and no touchdowns, and throwing two interceptions.
The receiving group was led by Garrett Wilson with 3 receptions for 29 yards (4 targets) and Xavier Gipson also added 29 yards on 2 receptions (6 targets, 90 air yards). Wilson had 2 more targets in the second half wiped off the board due to penalties.
Wilson played a substantial amount at 95%, while Lazard was also highly involved with a 90% snap share.
Tyler Conklin saw the most targets (7). Gipson took part in 69% of snaps, and Conklin was involved in 66%.
The Commanders and Browns are next for Gang Green. You have to go back to Wilson regardless of who the QB is. The Commanders’ defense is just that bad. Wilson was also targeted on 6 of Trevor Siemian’s first 12 pass attempts.
Miami Dolphins
Hold Raheem Mostert, Drop Jeff Wilson Jr., Buy Jaylen Waddle, Add Cedrick Wilson, Drop Dolphins DST
The offense was effectively led by Tua Tagovailoa who completed 21 of 24 passes for 224 yards and a touchdown, showing excellent efficiency with a 119.4 rating.
Raheem Mostert spearheaded the ground attack with 15 carries for 42 yards and two touchdowns. Tallied 7 more red-zone carries. Mostert participated in 54% of the snaps.
De’Von Achane had 9 carries for 32 yards, averaging 3.6 yards per carry, and also contributed to the receiving game with 3 receptions for 30 yards from 3 targets. Played 39% of the snaps.
Mostert out-carried Achane 9-4 in the first half (touches 11 to 6).
The duo split routes (13), while Achane saw 2 carries late with the backups.
Durham Smythe, playing at tight end, caught all 4 of his targets for 32 yards, averaging 8 yards per reception.
Jaylen Waddle was the standout receiver, grabbing 8 catches for 142 yards and a touchdown on 9 targets, translating to a 35% Target share. He had 90% of the team’s air yards. Absurd. No. 1 in weighted opportunity in Week 15.
Waddle saw action in 67% of the snaps.
Cedrick Wilson had the most targets (3) filling the hole vacated by the inactive Tyreek Hill. Wilson played 77%, while Smythe took part in 70%.
Miami has the Cowboys and the Ravens in the next 2 weeks.
Houston Texans
Add Noah Brown, Xavier Hutchinson, Sell Dameon Pierce, Hold Devin Singletary, Add Texans DST
Devin Singletary led with 121 yards on 26 carries. 4 red-zone carries. He had another 34-yard TD wiped off because of a holding call. He actually had several runs called back because of holding. 75% snap share.
Dare Ogunbowale added 17 yards on a single carry. Dameon Pierce had 1 carry for 3 yards. 5% snap share. Woof.
Case Keenum completed 23 of 36 passes for 229 yards, scoring 1 touchdown and throwing 1 interception.
Noah Brown was the top receiver with 82 yards on 8 catches, including a touchdown on 1 of his 3 red-zone targets. Played the most WR snaps (86%).
Dalton Schultz and Devin Singletary also made significant contributions with 58 and 49 yards, respectively.
Brown: 11 targets (7 in the first half) (32% Target share overall) and 45% air yards share.
Nobody else saw more than 1 target in the first half.
Dalton Schultz, Devin Singletary, and Robert Woods each had 5 targets. (14% target shares). Schultz was targeted twice in the red zone. He also 100% regained his starting role. The Texans TE played 84% of the snaps and ran 34 routes on 40 dropbacks.
Xavier Hutchinson drew 3 targets. But like the week before he drew several more DPI calls. With those included Hutch had 5 targets, including two deep ones. 2nd in WR snaps played (84%). First in routes run.
The Browns are next followed by the Titans again.
On the surface, Cleveland looks like a tough spot to overcome. But with C.J. Stroud back I think Houston’s offense will be fine. The Browns have a different defense at home than on the road.
Tennessee Titans
Add Tyjae Spears, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Hold DeAndre Hopkins, Derrick Henry,
Tyjae Spears led the team with 30 rushing yards on 9 carries. Will Levis contributed 25 yards and a touchdown on 4 carries. Derrick Henry struggled, managing only 9 yards on 16 carries. Got stuffed at the 1-yard line. Levis scored on the next play.
Henry caught 4 passes but for just 1 yard (4 targets). Spears had 1 target.
Snaps were 54% for Henry and 52% for Spears.
Will Levis completed 17 of 26 passes for 199 yards. He was sacked 7 times for a loss of 61 yards and had one interception. Suffered an injury toward the end of the game in OT. Deemed a sprained ankle
Treylon Burks led with 62 receiving yards on 3 catches. Second in WR snaps played.
Chris Moore (operated as WR3) and Chigoziem Okonkwo also contributed with 39 and 36 yards, respectively.
DeAndre Hopkins had a whopping 9 targets but caught 2 for 21 yards. Woof. 200 air yards.
Other ancillary players:
- Treylon Burks: 3 targets (11.5%)
- Chris Moore: 4 targets (15.4%)
- Chigoziem Okonkwo: 3 targets (11.5%). 69% route participation.
- Derrick Henry: 4 targets (15.4%)
Seattle and Houston round out the rest of the season. Great home game bounce-back spot for the Big Dog against a defense that ranks 28th in PPR points allowed to RBs. Even if it’s Ryan Tannehill under center.
Cleveland Browns
Buy David Njoku, Amari Cooper, Cedric Tillman Sell Elijah Moore, Hold Jerome Ford, Sell Kareem Hunt
The Browns had a total of 29 rushing yards, with Jerome Ford leading the team with 20 yards on 8 carries (2 red-zone carries). 51% snap share.
Kareem Hunt had 7 carries for 8 yards and 1 target. Hunt earned 3 red-zone carries as he tends to do. 32% snap share.
Old man Joe Flacco threw for 374 yards, completing 28 of 44 passes with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
The leading receivers were Amari Cooper (109 yards, 1 touchdown) and David Njoku (104 yards, 1 touchdown). Cooper and Njoku were targeted 8 and 14 times, respectively, making up a significant portion of the Browns’ passing game.
Top Target shares for the Browns’ receivers were as follows:
- Amari Cooper: 8 targets, 18%
- David Njoku: 14 targets, 31.1%. 3 red-zone targets.
- Cedric Tillman: 8 targets, 18%
- Elijah Moore: 3 targets, 7%
- Jerome Ford: 5 targets, 11.1%
- Pierre Strong: 2 targets, 4.4%
The Browns’ Remaining Schedule: HOU and NYJ
Chicago Bears
Add D’Onta Foreman, Sell Khalil Herbert, Hold Roschon Johnson
Rookie Roschon Johnson was the top rusher with 36 yards on 5 attempts. The first-year RB also played the most RB snaps for the Bears at 49%. This was heavily tied to the Bears playing catchup later with RJ running the most routes (21).
However, Khalil Herbert (23% snap share) and D’Onta Foreman each had 6 carries. Foreman (started) was held to -6 rushing yards but earned the 2 red-zone carries. Multiple goal-line attempts that had no chance of converting. 26% snap share.
He led the first half-carries (4) versus 2 for each of the other RBs. RJ was the last RB to earn a touch (2nd quarter).
This backfield is a mess. But even after the horrible week, Foreman is still the guy you’d like with the Bears favorites at home versus the horrible Cardinals run defense.
Discounted heavily at $4,700 on DraftKings in Week 16.
Passing: Justin Fields completed 19 of 40 passes for 166 yards, with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. But Robert Tonyan killed his final stat line with a MASSIVE drop that would have been an easy deep touchdown pass.
Receiving: D.J. Moore led the receivers with 52 yards on 4 receptions, followed by Tyler Scott with 49 yards. Cole Kmet caught a touchdown.
Target shares were as follows:
D.J. Moore (131 air yards) and Darnell Mooney both had 8 targets each, constituting 20% of the team’s pass attempts. Mooney was held to just 2 catches for 14 yards.
Roschon Johnson and Cole Kmet were targeted 6 and 7 times, respectively, making up 15% and 17.5% of the pass attempts.
Next up it’s the Cardinals and Falcons. Overall, a top-5 ROS for QBs per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
Los Angeles Rams
Buy Kyren Williams, Hold Cooper Kupp, Add Rams DST, Matthew Stafford, Demarcus Robinson
Kyren Williams led the ground attack with 152 yards on 27 carries, including a long run of 27 yards and a touchdown. Added 5 catches on 7 targets for 3 yards. Fumbled multiple times but that didn’t influence his workload. Still, keep Royce Freeman as a handcuff.
Passing: Matthew Stafford completed 25 out of 33 passes for 258 yards and 2 touchdowns. Stafford passed in the red zone 8 times and threw 0 red-zone TDs.
Cooper Kupp had a standout performance with 8 receptions for 111 yards and a touchdown. Kupp and Puka Nacua (2 red-zone targets apiece) each were targeted 8 times, making them primary targets in the passing game. They both played 100% of the snaps.
Demarcus Robinson scored for the third straight game. Just 3 targets and 2 catches for 44 yards. But…he ran a route on 100% of the dropbacks (same as Kupp/Nacua). Can’t deny he’s trending up. Even though he did deliver the UNDER on his 3.5 receptions prop this week.
Tyler Higbee had 4 catches for 23 yards on 5 targets. He did not have as great a role with just a 63% snap share. 22 routes won’t get it done (58% route participation). Can’t be trusted even in a plus-matchup versus the Saints.
LA plays the Saints on TNF this week and then they take on the Giants in the FF championships.
Washington Commanders
Add Chris Rodriguez Jr., Drop Jahan Dotson, Add Curtis Samuel, Sell Terry McLaurin
Chris Rodriguez Jr. led with 35 yards on 10 attempts. He took over the early-down role vacated by Brian Robinson. Antonio Gibson only had 4 carries for 15 yards on a 45% snap share and was hardly used in the second half.
C-Rod also got the nod at the goal line with 2 red-zone carries on a 33% snap share. He is a desperation add against the Jets defense that struggles to stop the run.
Johnathan Williams also mixed in with a 22% snap rate.
Terry McLaurin WR: 85%
Logan Thomas TE: 80%
Jahan Dotson WR: 77%
S. Howell QB: 73%
Curtis Samuel WR: 72%
Antonio Gibson RB: 45%
J. Bates TE:40%
Chris Rodriguez RB: 33%
J. Brissett QB: 27%
J. Williams RB: 22%
Alex ArmahRB:13%
B. Pringle WR: 13%
Dyami Brown WR 10%— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) December 18, 2023
Jacoby Brissett threw for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns on 8 of 10 passing, while Sam Howell added 102 yards and 1 touchdown on 11 of 26 passing. Howell was sat in the 4th quarter, but Ron Rivera said post-game he is still the starter.
Terry McLaurin was a standout with 141 receiving yards on 6 catches, including a touchdown. The minute that Brissett entered the game, TMC started to cook. Totaled 238 air yards. Brissett hit him on a 49-yard TD, but it was overturned to him being down at the 1-yard line.
Before Brissett came in the game, TMC was sitting on 3 catches for 48 yards.He caught passes of 29, 16 and 48 from the journeyman QB. Don’t trust him versus the Jets defense that allows the fewest receiving yards per game to WRs.
Take the LESS THAN 57.5 yards on McLaurin over on Prizepicks for Week 16. Before last week, he was under 57.5 yards in four straight games.
McLaurin was targeted 12 times in the game (35% Target share, 68% air yards share), Curtis Samuel 9 times (26% Target share) with 2 TDs, and Antonio Gibson had 5 targets, catching 5 for 20 yards. Gibby dominated the routes, but that was all his role was.
Samuel was targeted 5 times in the red zone alone.
Jahan Dotson had 1 catch. Woof. Logan Thomas, one catch for 7 yards on 3 targets. TD called off because of OPI. Had he scored, nobody would be complaining about LT’s final output. Luckily the Jets bleed TDs to tight ends as well. You could do worse.
The remaining features the New York (Jets) and the 49ers. It’s a tough schedule for the rest of the season.
Arizona Cardinals
Add Michael Wilson, Sell James Conner, Marquise Brown
The Cardinals excelled in the running game, accumulating 234 yards. James Conner led with 86 yards and a touchdown. Got half his yardage on a 44-yard burst. Before that, he was sitting on 27 yards on 10 carries in the first half.
Emari Demercado also totaled 64 rushing yards with a long of 49 yards.
Conner played 49% of the snaps, while Michael Carter and Demercado each played 24% in relief.
The routes and targets were all split evenly between the 3 RBs (each saw 3 targets and ran 13-plus routes).
Kyler Murray completed 26 of 39 passes for 211 yards, with one touchdown and two interceptions.
Tight end Trey McBride was the leading receiver with 102 yards on 10 receptions. The Cardinals distributed their targets well among several players.
McBride received the most targets with 11 (29% Target share) followed by Elijah Higgins (4 targets, 2 red zone).
The Arizona WRs were non-existent. Marquise Brown – zero targets. Barely seemed like he played. Greg Dortch, Rondale Moore and Michael Wilson all had at least 3 targets. All played ahead of Brown.
Wilson is the name to monitor because it seems over for Hollywood Brown. Wilson was targeted deep on the first play back from his injury. Wilson led the WRs in snaps played at 88%, while Brown was limited to just a 32% snap share.
Not healthy as he has been dealing with a heel injury. Didn’t play much in the second half but was on the field for the last drive.
The rookie ran a route on 89% of the dropbacks. Dortch was second, followed by Moore.
The Cardinals face CHI and PHI next. Tough matchup on the road for the Cardinals in Week 16 at the Bears.
Therefore, I am taking the unders on both Murray and Conner. Murray has not passed for 215 passing yards in any of his 3 road starts this season. His Prizepicks line is 220.5 passing yards.
As for Conner, the Bears are a no-run defense. Top-5 in fewest rushing yards allowed per game and per carry to opposing RBs this season. Other than the Lions RBs, no RB has rushed for 60 yards versus the Bears’ defense since Week 4.
San Francisco 49ers
Hold Deebo Samuel, Buy Brandon Aiyuk, Hold/Sell George Kittle
Christian McCaffrey led the team with 115 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries.
Passing: Brock Purdy threw for 242 yards and 4 touchdowns on 16 of 25 passing.
Christian McCaffrey also led in receiving with 72 yards on 5 catches, including 2 touchdowns.
Deebo Samuel was targeted 7 times, catching 4 for 48 and 2 scores—27% Target share.
Christian McCaffrey 5 times, and Brandon Aiyuk also had 5 targets. Aiyuk posted a poor box score, going just 3 for 37 yards. But he also nearly 100 air yards. Buy low.
George Kittle was limited to 2 catches for 54 yards on just 4 targets. 1 target came from Sam Darnold. The under on 3.5 receptions for Kittle continues to be a profitable player prop to bet weekly.
The 49ers play the Ravens and Commanders to close out the season.
Buffalo Bills
Buy James Cook, Buy Gabe Davis, Stefon Diggs, Add Ty Johnson
The Bills showcased a powerful running game, led by James Cook with 179 yards and a touchdown on a whopping 25 carries. Added 3 red-zone touches.
Cook has been fully unlocked since the team introduced Joe Brady as the OC. Over the last four games, Cook is averaging 22 fantasy points per game in half-PPR averaging 21 touches per game.
Ty Johnson (9 carries) and Josh Allen (8 carries) also contributed significantly. Latavius Murray chipped in 2 carries in the red zone. Johnson is the handcuff to Cook that fantasy managers should stash to the back of their rosters.
Josh Allen completed 7 out of 15 passes for 94 yards, including a touchdown pass. It truly was a ground game that dominated, making it easy for the Bills to not have to throw.
So as bad as all the Buffalo Bills WRs/TEs look, it’s completely game-script related.
Stefon Diggs led the receiving group with 48 yards (5 targets). 38% Target share. Now back to back weeks where Diggs has seen his Target share increase dramatically. No doubt related to the use of more two TE sets with the return of Dawson Knox. Buy low on Diggs. Only played 46% of the snaps in a game where he was not needed.
James Cook also stood out in the passing game with a receiving touchdown on 3 targets (2 in the red zone, 23% Target share).
Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid were all held without a catch. Davis has been held without a catch in 3 of his last four games.
Allen also missed Shakir deep. But Trent Sherfield played ahead of Shakir in snaps played. However he only ran 5 routes as he was playing in run-heavy situations.
J.Allen (QB): 90%
Gabe Davis (WR): 72%
Dawson Knox (TE): 62%
Trent Sherfield (WR): 57%
James Cook (RB): 56%
Khalil Shakir (WR): 49%
Dalton Kincaid (TE): 49%
Stefon Diggs (WR): 46%
Ty Johnson (RB): 29%
Q. Morris (TE): 26%
Reggie Gilliam (FB): 21%
Latavius Murray (RB): 21%— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) December 18, 2023
Kincaid suffered the most with the run-heavy offensive approach. Played just 49% of the snaps – fewer than Dawson Knox (62%).
Still, he ran a route on 68% of the dropbacks.
The Bills play the Chargers and Patriots next to close out the fantasy football season. I’d guess this passing game gets back to work really quickly.
Therefore, you need to be AGGRESSIVE buying the suppressed price of all Buffalo pass-catchers this week. Last week from a passing game perspective is a total outlier.
On Prizepicks, I am shooting for Josh Allen MORE than 244.5 passing yards and Stefon Diggs MORE than 67.5 receiving yards. The Chargers have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL this season. 4th-most to WRs (175 yards/game). A QB that has faced the Chargers has gone OVER his projected passing yards in 9 of their 11 last games. Same for WRs.
Dallas Cowboys
Add Rico Dowdle, Hold Brandin Cooks
Tony Pollard led the running game with 52 yards, while Dak Prescott added 27 yards. 72% snap share in a blow-out loss to the Bills.
CeeDee Lamb scored the only rushing touchdown.
Dak Prescott completed just 21 out of 34 passes for 134 yards but was intercepted once and couldn’t find the end zone.
Lamb was the top receiver with 53 yards on 7 catches, followed by Jake Ferguson with 44 yards on 6 receptions (8 targets, 25% Target share).
CeeDee Lamb received the most targets in the game (10), followed by Brandin Cooks (6 targets) who Prescott missed on a deep ball (93 air yards). Still clearly the WR2 in this offense.
Dallas plays the Dolphins and the Lions to wrap up the fantasy football season. Expect this offense to rebound in a big way in the next 2 weeks.
Baltimore Ravens
Add Justice Hill, Gus Edwards, Buy Zay Flowers, Hold Isaiah Likely, Add Rashod Bateman
Lamar Jackson led with 97 yards on the ground. Keaton Mitchell added 73 yards on 9 carries, while Gus Edwards scored a rushing touchdown on 1 of his 16 carries (1 target). Justice Hill had 5 carries (1 target) for 23 rushing yards.
Mitchell suffered a knee injury in the 4th quarter of Sunday Night Football, which puts his rest-of-season status in serious condition. It was confirmed to be a torn ACL, making him out for the remainder of the season.
Edwards played 40% of the snaps while Hill played 26% of the snaps. Note that in their next two matchups – where the game’s project to be higher-scoring back-and-forth contests – you’ll want the third down back in Hill more than the early grinder in Edwards. Still, Edwards is the goal-line RB who always has a chance to punch in a TD, with 6 red-zone carries on Sunday night football.
No. 2 tight end Isaiah Likely had 70 yards and a touchdown on 5 receptions (6 targets, 26% Target share). He played 74% of the snaps.
Rashod Bateman contributed 39 yards. (6 targets, 26% Target share). More involved in this contest than he has been all season. 44% snap share. Saw a boatload of air yards in Week 14, and the usage carried over into this latest matchup. Played ahead of Nelson Agholor.
Wide receiver Zay Flowers was involved in 84% of the snaps, indicating his significant role in the game plan. Only 2 targets. Woof. Would expect a bounce-back coming versus the pass-funnel 49ers defense. Flowers – for the 2nd straight game – ran a route on 100% of the dropbacks.
Odell Beckham Jr. only had 3 targets while playing 54% of the snaps. The role hasn’t changed for the last several weeks. Ran a route on 59% of dropbacks.
The Ravens face the 49ers and Dolphins to close out the season.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Add D’Ernest Johnson, Buy Travis Etienne, Calvin Ridley, Add Parker Washington
Travis Etienne Jr. carried the ball 10 times for 31 yards in the big home loss for the Jaguars. Still, Etienne Jr. was also active in the receiving game with 6 targets, snagging 4 balls for 28 yards. Played 69% of the snaps.
Calvin Ridley was targeted 12 times but caught 5 passes for 39 yards. (29% Target share). 164 air yards.
Came up just short of scoring in the 4th quarter after being ruled out-of-bounds. He continues to be a roller coaster fantasy football asset, but the Week 16 matchup will be too good to pass on. Ridley has 25 targets the last 2 games.
Zay Jones had 8 targets with 5 receptions for 59 yards, and Jamal Agnew had 2 targets, making the most of them with 70 yards and a touchdown, including a long reception of 65 yards. 144 air yards.
The issue is Jones is going to miss time with a hamstring injury.
Ridley and Engram also saw significant playtime, with 92% and 84% snap percentages, respectively.
Engram also caught 4 passes for 28 yards on 6 targets. Parker Washington also earned 6 targets. Add him with Jones listed as week-to-week with the injury. Great slot matchup this week for Washington as a WR streamer candidate.
The entire passing game for the Jaguars should be viewed as buy-low candidates after back-to-back tough matchups. Note that Trevor Lawrence is in the concussion protocol.
The Buccaneers and Panthers are over the next 2 weeks for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Philadelphia Eagles
Buy/Hold D’Andre Swift, Add Kenneth Gainwell
In the Eagles game, quarterback Jalen Hurts led the team both on the ground and through the air. He rushed for 82 yards on 13 attempts, scoring 2 touchdowns, and achieved an average of 6.3 yards per carry. His longest run was 20 yards. However, his passing performance was less effective, completing 17 out of 31 attempts for 143 yards, but he threw 2 interceptions and didn’t score any passing touchdowns.
The top receiver was A.J. Brown with 5 receptions for 56 yards on a team-high 10 targets (33% Target share). The Eagles WR1 also saw 130 air yards.
D’Andre Swift had 18 rushing attempts for 74 yards, averaging 4.1 yards per carry, with his longest run being 11 yards (3 targets).
Kenneth Gainwell had 6 rushing attempts for 21 yards and was targeted once in the passing game but did not record a reception. Swift played 59% of the snaps to Gainwell’s 41% snap share.
Matchups are ELITE for Swift as a rusher during the fantasy postseason. Just know his ceiling is limited with a lack of receiving and TD equity with the presence of the tush push (very apparent on Monday night). No. 1 schedule for RBs remaining per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
Swift had carries from the Seattle 9, 8, 3 and 12-yard lines, but did not score. Gainwell also saw some red-zone touches from the 8, 4 and 12-yard line. Alas, neither was a match for the tush push.
Dallas Goedert had one rushing attempt for one yard. Goedert was targeted 9 times (30% Target share) and made 4 receptions for 30 yards.
DeVonta Smith was targeted 5 times, catching all 5 for 50 yards.
The Eagles accumulated a total of 178 rushing yards and 143 passing yards in the game.
Philly has the Giants and then the Cardinals over the next 2 games. Good spots for this team to get back on the winning track.
Seattle Seahawks
Hold Kenneth Walker, Buy DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sell/Hold Tyler Lockett
Kenneth Walker III led the rushing attack with 86 yards on 19 carries, scoring a touchdown. His longest run was 23 yards, and he averaged 4.5 yards per carry. Walker played 56% of the snaps to Zach Charbonnet’s 44% snap share.
Charbonnet had just 4 rushing attempts for 16 yards, with a long run of 6 yards. Charbonnet ran more routes (13 vs 20) and saw the lone carry inside the red zone (14-yd line) but Walker was targeted more (3 vs 2). Still, the lack of a consistent receiving role does create a concern about how effective Walker can be against a negative game script. However, with the Titans/Steelers left, I don’t envision Seattle getting blown out.
Quarterback Drew Lock completed 22 of 33 pass attempts for 208 yards, including one touchdown and no interceptions. His longest pass was 34 yards.
The top receiver was D.K. Metcalf with 5 receptions for 78 yards (6 targets).
Tyler Lockett was targeted 9 times, making 3 receptions for 21 yards. 117 air yards and 28% Target share. His inefficient play continues. Even in plus-matchups, Lockett has been unreliable.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was targeted 4 times and made 4 receptions for 48 yards, scoring 1 touchdown that would seal victory for Seattle. He ran a route on 82% of the dropbacks. Increase from last week as the team leans more on their first-round rookie talent.
Noah Fant was targeted 5 times and made 3 receptions for 16 yards. 69% route participation. Fant is starting to separate himself from the other Seattle TEs.
The Seahawks take on Tennessee and Pittsburgh to close the season. Great matchups for the passing game to continue producing for the Seahawks, especially with Geno Smith likely coming back.
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