Welcome to Week 15 of the NFL, a pivotal moment for fantasy football enthusiasts as we enter the heart of the fantasy playoffs! In this thrilling phase of the season, I’m here to equip you with the latest edition of the 2023 usage report, packed with essential tips for fantasy managers.
As trade deadlines have passed, our focus shifts from traditional buy/sell strategies to a “stock up/stock down” approach for Weeks 15-18. Expect more direct DFS and Prizepicks advice for those seeking extra excitement beyond season-long leagues if you are no longer in the running.
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Now, let’s dive into the Week 15 Fantasy Football Forecast and explore the crucial snap counts!
And at the top – as it is stash DST season – I will list out the top DSTs per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
The Rams, Bears, Jets, Browns, Falcons and Packers are at the top. While Raiders, Ravens, Giants, Patriots and Cowboys are at the bottom.
Teams coming off Week 14 bye weeks
- Arizona Cardinals
- Washington Commanders
Fantasy Football Forecast
New England Patriots
Buy Ezekiel Elliott, Add Demario Douglas, Avoid JuJu Smith-Schuster
Ezekiel Elliott played a significant role without Rhamondre Stevenson, participating in 91% of the offensive snaps, with 22 rushing attempts for 68 yards. He was also targeted 8 times, making him a key component of their aerial attack. Elliott capitalized on these opportunities by hauling in 7 receptions, totaling 72 yards. This included a notable 16-yard catch, and he even found the end zone for a receiving touchdown. Elliott’s receiving usage was a significant aspect of the Patriots’ offensive strategy in the game. 29 touches as the straight bell cow along with being the team’s target leader (31% target share).
Ty Montgomery worked briefly behind Zeke (11% snap share).
Quarterback Bailey Zappe was effective – especially in the first half – completing 19 out of 28 passes for 240 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception.
Note that in the 2nd half, this offense went ULTRA conservative. Zappe attempted 7 passes for 44 yards. He has 21 in the first half.
JuJu Smith-Schuster was a key receiver, with 4 receptions for 90 yards on 6 targets (23% target share). 82 yards on 3 catches in the first half.
Played 98% of the snaps. DeVante Parker did not play in this contest nor did rookie Demario Douglas. If those guys can’t go next week, Smith-Schuster should be the No. 1 WR again. But with 10 days between their next game, it seems like Smith-Schuster’s time in the spotlight will be short.
Tight end Hunter Henry made notable contributions with 3 receptions for 40 yards and 2 touchdowns. Played 88% of the snaps, as the offense concentrated more around a smaller group of players on Thursday night. HH is still super TD-dependent, and the Patriots scoring 3 TD is hardly a given, especially with two tough defenses coming up. The Broncos are a good matchup for tight ends, so he’s a potential streamer in the matchup.
Tyquan Thornton ran a route on 100% of the dropbacks. He was targeted 5 times in the passing game, resulting in 3 receptions. Thornton managed to accumulate a total of 17 receiving yards.
Next up for the 3-win Patriots, it’s the Chiefs. Close out the year with the Broncos and Bills.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Add Pat Freiermuth, Buy Diontae Johnson, Jaylen Warren, Sell/Hold Najee Harris, Sell George Pickens
In Week 14, the Steelers’ ground game was led by Mitch Trubisky with 8 carries for 30 yards and a touchdown, while Najee Harris added 29 yards on 12 carries. The under on his rushing yards prop was never in doubt against the Patriots’ suffocating run defense on Thursday night.
Harris was on the field for 40 snaps (57% of the offensive plays), while Jaylen Warren played in 37 snaps (53%). Warren’s performance included 29 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 11 rushing yards on 7 carries. He also ran the most routes.
Harris also made 3 receptions on 3 targets, totaling 19 yards.
The passing game was bad, with Trubisky completing 22 out of 35 attempts for 190 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.
Diontae Johnson was a key target, receiving 7 targets (20% target share) and making 3 receptions for 57 yards, including a 25-yard touchdown in the first half. He also commanded 136 air yards – 49% air yard share. He scored twice in the last two games – both passes coming from Trubisky.
The target share was distributed across various receivers, with Johnson, Jaylen Warren and Pat Freiermuth being notable contributors. Freiermuth also had 7 targets (20% target share) and caught a 2-point conversion.
George Pickens was targeted 6 times (17% target share), making 5 receptions for a total of 19 yards.
Freiermuth and Johnson were both on the field for 69% of the snaps. Freiermuth finally returned to his full-time role he had pre-injury, running a route on 83% of dropbacks. Top-tier usage that foreshadows strong fantasy games down the stretch.
The Trubisky splits favoring Johnson over Pickens that I outlined last week came to fruition in this game. You cannot play Pickens if Trubisky is the team’s starting QB.
The Steelers’ upcoming schedule: The Colts, Bengals and Seahawks.
Chicago Bears
Add D’Onta Foreman, Sell Khalil Herbert, Hold Roschon Johnson
D’Onta Foreman led the backfield in the first half with 6 carries to Khalil Herbert’s 1 and Roschon Johnson’s 0. Roschon only had one carry in the game. Herbert had just three carries for 8 yards.
Woof.
Foreman finished with 11 carries for 50 yards, providing solid support in the running game to go along with 3 targets. Led the backfield with a 55% snap share. After a long layoff, he was reinserted as the RB1 in the backfield. Led the team in routes run among the RBs.
He needs to be added with him in the driver’s seat to be the RB1 from here on out.
Johnson was second with a 28% snap share, followed by Herbert at 17%. Johnson ran the fewest RB routes (7).
D.J. Moore caught six passes for 68 yards and scored a touchdown (10 targets, 30%, 3 red-zone targets). Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney also made notable contributions in the passing game, with Kmet grabbing five receptions for 66 yards (7 targets, 23%) and Mooney adding 44 yards on two catches (7 targets, 23%).
Kmet had another long gain erased due to a holding penalty.
Next up it’s the Browns, Cardinals and Falcons. Overall, a top-5 ROS for QBs per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
The matchup in Cleveland will be tough for the Bears’ passing game. Leaning toward the under on Bears passing yards prop early in the week, despite the elite connection between Fields/Moore. Moore’s Prizepicks line is set at 62.5 receiving yards against the Browns’ defense that has held WRs to the second-lowest receiving yards per game.
Detroit Lions
Hold/Buy David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sell Jameson Williams
Jahmyr Gibbs led the backfield in the first half with 7 carries to Montgomery’s 6.
Gibbs and Montgomery each rushed for 66 yards, and Gibbs scored the touchdown while leading the team with one more carry (11 vs 10). He earned the lone RZ RB carry.
The rookie also caught 3 balls for 16 yards on 4 targets while dominating the routes. He also fumbled but that did not appear to influence his playing time.
Monty caught 3 passes on 3 targets.
Gibbs also led the backfield in snaps with the game more of a back-and-forth contest with the Lions trailing. Gibbs played 63% of the snaps. Monty played 35% of the snaps.
I expect both guys to produce again against a horrible Broncos run defense in Week 15 after an impressive outing against a solid Chicago Bears run defense.
The receiving corps was led by Josh Reynolds, who caught three passes for 44 yards and a touchdown (4 targets). Amon-Ra St. Brown, typically a key target, was limited to just 21 yards on three receptions (9 targets).
Sam LaPorta received 6 targets, which constituted approximately 17.1% of the team’s total pass attempts. But he caught only 2 for 23 yards.
Jameson Williams was not involved at all. Even though he was second in WR snaps behind the Sun God. Third in routes run – tied with Kalif Raymond. He’s just too inconsistent to trust with a lackluster role offensively to trust in the fantasy playoffs.
The Broncos, Vikings and Cowboys are following up for the Lions.
Baltimore Ravens
Hold Keaton Mitchell, Sell Gus Edwards, Avoid Justice Hill, Buy Zay Flowers, Hold Isaiah Likely, Add Odell Beckham Jr.
Rookie Keaton Mitchell split carries (3) in the first half with Gus Edwards (2). In the game’s entirety,
Mitchell carried the ball 9 times for 54 yards, Edwards just 6 for 15 yards. Take the under on Edwards’ rushing yards against a tough Jaguars run defense in Week 15.
Mitchell had 2 targets, contributing to about 4.7% of the target share apiece. Justice Hill also had 2 targets while running the most routes.
With the game more of a back-and-forth contest, Hill actually played the most snaps (42%), but it was empty-calorie playing time. Mitchell was second with a 33% snap share, followed by Edwards at 28%.
Still believe Mitchell is the back-to-own.
Lamar Jackson led the team in rushing with 70 yards and excelled in passing, throwing for 316 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The leading receiver was Odell Beckham Jr., who had 4 receptions for 97 yards and a touchdown. Beckham Jr. received 10 targets (25% target share, 41% air yards share, 218 air yards). OBJ only played 53% of the snaps, as the team monitors is workload. But it’s clear that when he is on the field, he is highly involved in the passing game.
Zay Flowers also had 10 targets – catching 6 for 60 and 1 TD. He played 97% of the snaps and ran a route on 100% of the dropbacks.
Isaiah Likely had 7 targets, a 16.3% target share. 5-83-1. Elite 79% snap share and route participation at 89%.
Nelson Agholor was targeted 5 times, representing about 11.6% of the target share. 5 grabs for 32 yards. Ranked second in snaps.
Rashod Bateman had 4 targets, equating to roughly 9.3%. 2 for 24 yards. 47% snap share. 4th among the WRs. But also commanded 125 air yards.
The Ravens face the Jaguars, 49ers, and Dolphins to close out the season.
I love the over on Jackson’s passing yards prop this week on Prizepicks. 219.5 passing yards is too low. Lamar has gone over this number in 3 of his last 4 games. Also, the Jags have allowed 296 or more passing yards in 4 of their last 5 games.
Los Angeles Rams
Buy Kyren Williams, Hold Cooper Kupp, Add Rams DST, Matthew Stafford, Demarcus Robinson
Cooper Kupp was targeted 7 times in the first half. Kyren Williams had 14 carries for 71 yards.
These two played big roles in the Rams’ almost OT upset in Week 14.
Williams led the rushing attack through the entire game with 25 carries for 114 yards, averaging 4.6 yards per attempt. Royce Freeman and Puka Nacua also contributed, with Freeman rushing three times for 9 yards. Williams played a whopping 90% of the team’s snaps of offense.
Kupp received 10 of the team’s 41 pass attempts, making up about 24.4% of the target share. Caught 8 balls for 115 yards and 1 TD. Amassed 4 red-zone targets. Is he fully healthy and back? No. He is still limping around and he caught a 32-yard pass on a broken play.
Up next, the Commanders. Add Matthew Stafford as a streaming QB if he is on waivers.
Puka Nacua was targeted 8 times (19.5%), backup tight end Davis Allen 5 times (12.2%), and Demarcus Robinson 10 times (24.4%) while playing a full-time role. 163 air yards.
He’s clearly ahead of Tutu Atwell, who ran 1 route in this game.
Nacua finished with 5 catches for 84 yards. Also drew an additional PI on a deep ball. He’s still the Rams’ No. 1 WR, not Kupp – even after the bounce-back effort from the latter.
Allen – filling in for Tyler Higbee – caught 4 balls for 50 yards and 1 TD. Played 71% of the snaps.
D-Rob only caught 3 passes for 46 yards but scored. 4 red-zone targets. If you are desperate, Robinson could be an easy plug-in against the Commanders. But the lack of efficiency he has displayed makes him extremely risky despite the great matchup. Would have busted on 10 targets had he not scored in Week 14. Again, in the first half he was stuck on one catch for 22 yards on 4 targets.
Tutu Atwell and Kyren Williams also received targets, with Atwell targeted once (2.4%) and Williams four times (9.8%).
The Rams play Washington, the Saints and the Giants in their next 3 games.
Atlanta Falcons
Add Kyle Pitts, Buy Bijan Robinson, Sell Drake London, Add Falcons DST, Tyler Allgeier
Bijan Robinson led with 6 carries and 5 targets in the first half. Robinson finished with 34 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts. Robinson contributed more to the receiving game with 54 yards on 5 receptions from 7 targets. Elite 78% snap share and 2 more red zone carries.
Tyler Allgeier rushed for 40 yards on 9 carries. Only played 21% of the snaps. The Panthers are horrible versus RBs and Allgeier has reclaimed RB2 duties. Flexible in Week 15. Bijan is far too cheap on DK at $6,800 against the Cardiac Cats. Smash those rushing prop overs.
Drake London was a perfect 5-for-5 for 73 yards in the first half. London led the receiving group in the end with 10 receptions for 172 yards on 12 targets (28% target share and nearly 180 air yards).
But I have to admit this game for London – as great as it was – was very much matchup-based. He’s great at home and the Buccaneers’ pass defense is horrible. Carolina is a run-funnel and they have an underrated secondary. On the road in Week 15, I’d be fading London in most cases for fear of a heavy run-game script dialed up by Arthur Smith. Take the LESS THAN on London’s 52.5 receiving yards prop against Carolina on the road. London has gone over 50 yards on the road just twice this season, in 6 road games. And in the games he went over, it was against the horrible pass defenses of the Bucs/Titans. Carolina held him catchless when these teams played in Week 1. Carolina is also facing the 3rd-fewest targets and 8th-fewest yards to WRs this season.
Kyle Pitts made 3 catches for 57 yards and a touchdown from 6 targets. Usage continues to inspire confidence that he can he a usable fantasy tight end. Played a team-high 85% snap share and ran the most routes on the team (41, 91%).
Tight end Jonnu Smith had 4 receptions for 27 yards from 7 targets in the receiving game. 69% snap share. Usage spiked to 71% route participation. He had another target removed due to a defensive penalty. However, the Panthers shut down tight ends. Smith is too fringe to trust. Keep him on waivers.
Cordarrelle Patterson contributed primarily in the rushing attack with 7 yards on 3 carries. 17% snap share.
The Falcons’ playoff schedule remains JUICY with Carolina, Indianapolis and the Bears from Weeks 15-17. The Atlanta DST is stash-worthy.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Add Cade Otton, Sell/Hold Chris Godwin, Buy Mike Evans, Rachaad White
Rachaad White led the rushing game with 102 yards on 25 carries, while Chase Edmonds also contributed effectively with 40 yards on 8 attempts. Bell cow with an 85% snap share.
1 target for Mike Evans in the first half. 4 for Chris Godwin. Godwin, who made 5 receptions for 53 yards on a team-high 11 targets. 38% target share. 50% air yards share. Atlanta continues to be a defense you attack with slot receivers and tight ends. Hence, my slight hesitation to buy all-in on Godwin. Still, the Jags Week 16 matchup is a prime spot for him as a fantasy WR3 with how bad their secondary is.
Rachaad White and Cade Otton each had a receiving touchdown, with White catching 2 passes for 33 yards (2 targets) and Otton 2 for 16 yards (5 targets, 17%). Otton played nearly all the snaps as he tends to do at 97%. No. 2 ROS for TEs per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
Evans finished with just 1 catch for 8 yards on 6 targets (21%). Barely was ruled out-of-bounds in the end zone. Would buy low after a bizarre down game. His Prizepicks receiving yards line is set at 66.5 yards. Gone MORE THAN that mark in 5 of his last 8 games.
Trey Palmer operated as the WR3 but did nothing with it.
GB is next for Tampa Bay followed by the Jaguars and Saints.
With White getting fed left and right, I love taking the overs on his rushing against the run-funnel Green Bay Packers. He’s $7K on DraftKings in Week 15.
Indianapolis Colts
Hold Zack Moss, Hold Michael Pittman Jr., Buy Josh Downs, Avoid Alec Pierce, Add Colts DST
Michael Pittman caught all 5 of his targets in the first half for 40 yards. Zack Moss totaled 11 carries for 28 yards in the first half. Only had two carries in the second half. Moss tallied 84% of the snaps and compiled 6 more red zone carries. But again, no TDs. Sigh. Hurts even more that Moss did actually score in this game on a 10-yard rush, but it was called back because of offensive holding. Woof. They went to Moss twice more through the air after that play, with the second target resulting in a back-breaking INT.
Moss is running colder than the North Pole in the red zone these last 2 games.
Gardner Minshew, the quarterback, completed 26 of his 39 pass attempts overall, accumulating 240 yards with one touchdown and one interception. The rushing attack was less effective, with Moss leading the team with 13 carries for only 28 yards.
Pittman Jr. was the primary target in the passing game, receiving 11 targets (about 29% of the team’s pass attempts), and catching 8 passes for 95 yards. Other notable contributors in the receiving game included Will Mallory and Alec Pierce. Mallory had 5 receptions on 5 targets, while Pierce was targeted 3 times. Pierce played the most WR snaps at 91%.
Don’t chase Mallory as the Colts continue to use 4 different tight ends in their offensive rotation.
The team’s running backs, especially Moss, were also involved, with Moss receiving 8 targets, catching 4 for 28 yards (21% target share).
Josh Downs was targeted 3 times, 7.7% target share. His involvement in the passing game was relatively modest, with 3 receptions for 32 yards. 78% snap share. The Steelers are horrible versus slot WRs. Another buy-low opportunity for the Colts’ shifty slot receiver. Pittsburgh has allowed the 4th-most points per game to slot WRs compared to the 4th-fewest points per game to perimeter WRs.
The Colts will play the Steelers next, followed by the Falcons/Raiders. Their DST is very much in play for the playoffs.
Cincinnati Bengals
Sell Joe Mixon, Buy Ja’Marr Chase, Add Chase Brown, Tee Higgins
Joe Mixon led the rushing efforts with 21 carries for 79 yards and a touchdown, while Chase Brown added 25 yards on 8 carries. 9 carries for Joe Mixon in the first half (4 targets). The rookie is getting more work these last two weeks. 30% snap share in Week 14, with a boosted role as a receiver. Zero routes run last week, which changed dramatically.
Mixon only ran a route on 52% of the dropbacks. He still dominated the red-zone work with 7 red-zone carries, but Brown did see a few red-zone carries as well (2).
Tee Higgins and Mixon also made significant contributions in the passing game, with Higgins catching 2 passes for 72 yards (4 targets) and Mixon adding 46 yards on 3 receptions (4 targets).
Brown flashed as a receiver, catching all 3 balls for 80 yards including a long catch of 54 yards that went for a score. Higgins saw a ton of downfield looks, with a 61% air yard share. He also had another TD catch from A.J. McCarron that was nullified because of an OPI call on Higgins.
Just two targets for Ja’Marr Chase in the first half and 4 in the game. 3 for 29 yards. Buy low.
Tyler Boyd and Tanner Hudson each had 3 targets. Boyd made 2 catches for 23 yards (2 red-zone targets), while Hudson caught 2 for 21 yards and a touchdown. Hudson doesn’t play a lot of snaps but continues to get targeted when playing.
Browning left later in the game with a hand injury but it was just cramps.
Minnesota is next followed by Pittsburgh again and the Chiefs in the fantasy football championships.
Take the under on Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop with the brutal matchup and his lost work to Chase Brown.
Cleveland Browns
Buy David Njoku, Amari Cooper, Sell Elijah Moore, Hold Jerome Ford, Sell Kareem Hunt, Cedric Tillman
Jerome Ford had 6 first-half carries to Kareem Hunt’s 3. Overall, Ford led the rushing with 51 yards on 12 carries. Kareem Hunt added a touchdown and 27 rushing yards on 10 carries. Ford was peppered with 6 targets in the passing game, catching 5 for 31 yards. Hunt had 1 target.
Ford led the backfield with a 57% snap rate while leading the backfield in routes run. Hunt was at 37% but peaked his ugly head in the red zone with 4 carries and a score from that area of the field.
Backfield usage has remained steady with both guys on the committee.
David Njoku and Amari Cooper each saw 8 first-half targets. Njoku caught two TDs in the first half.
Joe Flacco (named starting QB the rest of the season) threw for 311 yards, 3 touchdowns, and an interception. The primary targets were Njoku, who caught 6 passes for 91 yards and 2 touchdowns (19% target share), and Cooper, who had 7 receptions for 77 yards through 4 quarters. Cooper received 14 targets, accounting for a significant portion of the team’s passing game. He also earned 51% of the team’s air yards.
Elijah Moore and David Bell also contributed, with Moore catching 3 for 42 yards (6 targets) and Bell having a 41-yard touchdown reception (3 targets). Moore’s boom in usage a week ago was more tied to Cooper missing most of the game than him having this absurd chemistry with Flacco.
Cedric Tillman caught two balls on 4 targets. But his snaps reduced to 61%. The team featured more tight end packages.
The Browns’ Remaining Schedule: CHI, HOU and NYJ
Jacksonville Jaguars
Add D’Ernest Johnson, Buy Travis Etienne, Sell Calvin Ridley, Add Zay Jones
Trevor Lawrence led the passing game with 257 yards, completing 28 out of 50 attempts, with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. His main target was Evan Engram, who caught 11 passes for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns, showing his significant role in the offense. Engram was targeted 12 times, giving him a target share of 24% (2 red-zone targets).
Calvin Ridley also contributed with 53 receiving yards. Ridley received 13 targets, resulting in a target share of 26%. 4 catches for 53 yards. Woof. All the high-value targets, and zero production to show for it. 3 red-zone targets. 166 air yards.
On the ground, Travis Etienne Jr. was the primary rusher, gaining 35 yards and scoring a touchdown on 1 of 4 red-zone carries. Also caught all 4 of his targets for 37 yards. D’Ernest Johnson had 3 carries and 3 targets. ETN played 78% of the snaps in a must-win game.
Zay Jones saw 8 targets in the first half. Jones finished with 14 targets, accounting for a 28% target share. 5 for 29 despite a TON of deep targets and air yards. 47% air yards share. 225 air yards.
Double woof.
Still, these Jones opportunities were on the shoulders of his QB. Whereas Ridley and Lawrence weren’t on the same page on a number of occasions.
Parker Washington scored for the second straight week, seeing 3 targets. He’s in the Christian Kirk slot role, although it’s slightly modified. Just 63% route participation, far behind Ridley and Jones.
The Ravens, Buccaneers, and Panthers are over the next 3 weeks for Jacksonville. Second-worst ROS for QBs per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
Carolina Panthers
Hold Chuba Hubbard, Sell Jonathan Mingo, Drop Adam Thielen
Chuba Hubbard carries the ball 14 times for 59 yards in the first half.
The Panthers’ offense focused heavily on their running game, amassing a total of 204 rushing yards. Hubbard led overall with 87 yards on 23 carries (2 targets), while Miles Sanders added a significant 74 yards on 10 carries.
Hubbard is a bellcow. 78% snap share to Sanders’ 21%. Hubbard played a whopping 62 snaps and ran a route on 56% of the dropbacks.
The passing game, however, struggled with quarterback Bryce Young completing only 13 of 36 passes for 137 yards.
Adam Thielen was the top receiver with 74 yards on 5 receptions from 7 targets. D.J. Chark and Jonathan Mingo contributed with 26 and 22 receiving yards, respectively. Mingo only caught 2 of his 9 targets (28% target share, 159 air yards). Woof. Chark earned 4 targets.
They were the top 2 WRs with 89% snap shares. Thielen was third with an 81% snap rate.
Stephen Sullivan led the tight ends with four targets (75 air yards) and routes run while Ian Thomas left the game very early with an injury. Tommy Tremble played the most TE snaps.
Atlanta is next, then Green Bay.
Other than Hubbard getting fed volume every week, nothing in this offense can be trusted with Young at the helm. The Falcons being a plus-matchup for slot WRs and tight ends may not make any difference if Carolina can’t move the ball through the air.
New Orleans Saints
Drop Juwan Johnson, Add Saints DST, Hold Alvin Kamara, Add Jamaal Williams, Lynn Bowden Jr.
Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams split carries 8 versus 6 in the first half.
Kamara led the rushing attack overall with 56 rushing yards and a touchdown on 12 carries, averaging 4.7 yards per attempt. Williams also contributed 43 yards on 11 carries.
Snaps were 54% for Kamara and 44% for Williams. Most usage we have seen from Williams all season with Taysom Hill inactive. Add if Hill’s injury is more of a serious long-term concern. Kamara also saw 3 red-zone carries.
A.T. Perry had a standout 44-yard reception, while Chris Olave and Jimmy Graham each caught a touchdown (2 red-zone targets). Olave had 5 targets (23%, 50% air yards share), catching for 4 for 28. Olave led the team in routes run, followed by Perry.
Kamara had 5 targets (23%), Lynn Bowden received 4 targets (18%), while Jimmy Graham and Foster Moreau each had 2 targets (7.7%). Bowden caught 4 for 24 yards.
Bowden continues to get a ton of playing time with Rashid Shaheed out. For 2nd straight game, played the most snaps (77%). Also ran a route on 74% of the dropbacks.
The under cashed on Johnson’s reception prop. YTLSI. He only played 40% of the snaps. Fewer than Foster Moreau (63%). The two also split routes near even.
The New York Giants, LA Rams and Tampa Bay round out the fantasy playoffs. Add the Saints DST.
New York Jets
Add Tyler Conklin, Buy Garrett Wilson, Hold Breece Hall
Quarterback Zach Wilson completed 27 out of 36 passes for 301 yards, achieving two touchdowns and no interceptions, which earned him a rating of 117.9. On the ground, the Jets accumulated 79 yards over 26 carries, with a touchdown by receiver Xavier Gipson (1 target).
Dalvin Cook out-carried Breece Hall 4 vs 5 in the first half. Hall was the target leader (5) in the first half. Hall played a significant role in the passing game during the game, catching 8 of his 9 targets (26% target share) for 86 yards and scoring a touchdown. His receiving usage is his best fantasy asset.
Hall ended with 10 carries and 40 rushing yards versus Cook’s 13 yards on 7 attempts. 62% snap rate to Cook’s 24% snap share. I expect the Jets to struggle to run the ball versus a underrated Miami Dolphins run defense.
Garrett Wilson also saw 5 first-half targets.
The receiving corps was led by Wilson, who received 14 targets (40% target share, 69% air yards share) and made 9 receptions for 108 yards. No. 1 WR in weighted opportunity in Week 14.
Tyler Conklin (6 targets, 4 catches) and Jeremy Ruckert (3 targets, 3 catches) contributed with 57 and 37 receiving yards, respectively. Conklin barely out-snapped Ruckert (56% vs 49%), but he was used more as a receiver with more routes (25 vs 11).
The target shares were distributed with Garrett Wilson leading at 38.9%, followed by Breece Hall with 25%, and tight end Tyler Conklin with 16.7%.
Randall Cobb also scored on his one catch. Allen Lazard reclaimed WR2 duties but was not involved (72% snap share).
The Dolphins are next, then it’s the Commanders and Browns.
Top-5 ROS for QBs per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
Houston Texans
Add Noah Brown, Xavier Hutchinson, Brevin Jordan, Sell Dameon Pierce, Hold Devin Singletary, Add Texans DST
Devin Singletary dusted Dameon Pierce in the first half, out-carrying him 11 to 2 in the first half.
Singletary rushed for 65 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries (3 targets). Pierce had 4 carries all afternoon (1 target).
Pierce played just 14% of the snaps to Singletary’s 57%. Singletary also earned both red-zone opportunities among the Texans RBs.
The bad year for Pierce continues…
The receiving game was subdued, with Brevin Jordan catching all three of his targets for 35 yards. Played a full-time role with a 75% snap share with Dalton Schultz sidelined. A low-end starter as long as Schultz is out.
Nico Collins left the game early with an injury (1 target). No receiver could make a significant impact, reflecting the team’s overall offensive challenges.
John Metchie III (4th in WR routes) and Noah Brown tied for the team lead in targets (5, 19% target share). 2 of Metchie’s targets came from Davis Mills.
Rookie Xavier Hutchinson led the WRs in the snaps played (73%), while Robert Woods ran the most routes. Brown was second in routes run and almost had a great deep completion. Totaled a 40% air yard share and over 100 raw air yards. Brown was also targeted near the end zone and picked up another PI call to move the ball inside the 1-yard line, which would lead to the Singletary rushing TD.
Hutchinson made a nice 31-yard grab early in the first quarter, but it was called back because of an offensive PI. Totaled 4 targets overall.
Quarterback C.J. Stroud completed just 10 of 23 passes for 91 yards. But Stroud left in the fourth quarter with a concussion. Currently in the concussion protocol.
The Titans are next followed by the Browns/Titans (again).
You can’t have much confidence in any Texans WR if Stroud is out. But if he’s in, Brown is the top target followed by Hutchinson (who is taking on the Collins role if he is out).
Brown is $5K on DraftKings this week, while Hutchinson is the stone minimum at $3K.
Las Vegas Raiders
Hold Davante Adams, Sell Jakobi Meyers, Drop Michael Mayer, Add Zamir White/Ameer Abdullah
The running game struggled with Josh Jacobs leading with 34 yards on 13 carries, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry. He left the game with an injury.
Ameer Abdullah added a notable 12-yard run and 2 targets, while Zamir White chipped in 2 carries for 8 yards. If Jacobs must miss time, we’d likely see White operate on early downs with Abdullah working in the passing game. They play on Thursday night versus the Chargers.
Quarterback Aidan O’Connell completed 21 of 32 passes for 171 yards, but couldn’t find the end zone and threw one interception.
Davante Adams was the primary target in the receiving corps, catching 7 passes for 53 yards from 10 targets (34% target share, 56% air yards share). He got the majority of his production on a ball thrown in desperation in the fourth quarter. Still, the LAC matchup is divine, and we have seen Aidan O’Connell perform against this defense already this season.
Adams went for 75 yards on 8 catches and 13 targets back in Week 4 versus the Chargers.
Hunter Renfrow made 3 receptions for 46 yards (5 targets), and Jakobi Meyers contributed 25 yards from 5 catches (6 targets). Meyers was great with Jimmy Garoppolo but has been non-existent in fantasy football with the rookie under center.
Renfrow is back in the WR3 chair over Tre Tucker (2 routes).
They face the Chargers (TNF), Chiefs and Colts over their next 3 games.
Minnesota Vikings
Add Ty Chandler, Sell Jordan Addison,
The Vikings’ Week 14 offense primarily relied on their ground game, led by Alexander Mattison who rushed for 66 yards on 10 carries. He left the game with an injury in the 3rd quarter.
Ty Chandler contributed with 34 yards from 12 carries. Also caught 3 passes for 7 yards. 11 of his touches came after Mattison’s injury.
Chandler ended the game with a 56% snap share, and would likely be the RB1 if Mattison misses extended time. He also ran a route on 50% of the dropbacks.
Quarterbacks Nick Mullens and Josh Dobbs shared passing duties; Mullens completed 9 of 13 passes for 83 yards, while Dobbs added 63 yards from 10 completions and was benched for a severe lack of points.
Tight end T.J. Hockenson was the top receiver, catching 5 passes for 53 yards from 8 targets.
Mullens heavily targeted Hockenson and Jalen Nailor when he first entered the game.
Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison (3 targets) each had 27 receiving yards. Jefferson left early with a chest injury and did not return.
Addison has done nothing in the absence of Jefferson with the abysmal QB play he has been dealt.
The target distribution was diversified, with Hockenson being the primary option in the passing game. K.J. Osborn finished second with 7 targets (4 for 15 yards, 21% target share).
The Bengals are next followed by the Lions and Packers.
Top-5 ROS for QBs per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
Buffalo Bills
Hold James Cook, Buy Gabe Davis
The running game was led by James Cook with 10 carries for 58 yards. Josh Allen also contributed significantly with a rushing touchdown. Ty Johnson was the next most involved RB carrying the 5 times for 19 yards along with 2 receptions. Latavius Murray had 3 carries for 9 yards and 1 target. The veteran also fumbled on a catch.
Allen, in the passing game, completed 23 of 42 attempts for 233 yards, throwing one touchdown and one interception.
James Cook was also a primary receiver, catching 5 passes for 83 yards and a touchdown (5 targets). Led the backfield in routes run with a 44% snap rate.
Murray was second with a 32% snap share, followed by Johnson (21%).
Other notable contributions came from Dalton Kincaid and Stefon Diggs.
Diggs was targeted 11 times, leading the team in targets (31%). Kincaid had 9 targets (2 red-zone targets, 22% target share). But just 5 for 21 on a 78% snap share. 88% route participation is key to note because it means that his role did not get reduced with Dawson Knox. Thank the lord for smart coaching.
Gabe Davis goose-egged on 2 targets. Just the Gabe Davis life. They will need a big game from him against the Cowboys. Give me all the Davis overs in Week 15. Along with Josh Allen more than 259.5 passing yards on Prizepicks. Dallas has allowed 300-plus passing yards in 2 of their last 3 games. The Bills have averaged 257 passing yards per game this season. Given this number is right around the average, I like the over with the Bills as small home favorites in a projected shootout.
Dawson Knox received 3 targets, effectively utilizing them with notable yardage. 3 for 36 yards. He played 47% of the snaps in his first game back.
That hurt Khalil Shakir, who saw his snaps drop to 61%.
The Bills play the Cowboys, Chargers and Patriots next to close out the fantasy football season.
Kansas City Chiefs
Buy Rashee Rice, Hold Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Add Jerick McKinnon
The rushing attack was led by Clyde Edwards-Helaire with 11 carries for 39 yards. Jerick McKinnon added a touchdown on one of his 4 carries. McKinnon also caught 3 passes for 18 yards on 3 targets, while leading the backfield in routes run (18 vs 15).
CEH played 48% of the snaps – he did miss some time after ripping his pants lol – against McKinnon’s 45% snap share. It was reported that they would split work before the game without Isiah Pacheco, and that report proved to be correct.
However given the brutal rushing matchup this week versus the Patriots, I’d be taking all the rushing RB unders you can bet.
Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice were key targets, receiving 10 targets each (26% target share). Kelce made 6 receptions for 83 yards, while Rice caught 7 passes for 72 yards and a touchdown. 3 red-zone targets. Tough matchup for Kelce this week versus the Patriots’ defense, who will undoubtedly throw everything at Kelce to make other Chiefs WRs beat them defensively. They have allowed the 5th-fewest yards to TEs this season. Lean toward the LESS than on Kelce’s 69.5 receiving yards prop on Prizepicks. He’s gone over that number in 5 of 12 games this season (42%).
Rice is getting fully unlocked in this offense as all the other Chiefs WRs continue to underwhelm. The rookie played 85% of the snaps. Ran a route on 83% of the dropbacks. Justin Watson was second in routes run.
The remaining targets were distributed among Edwards-Helaire, Kadarius Toney (3rd in routes run), Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and others. Each saw four targets.
Toney caught a TD from a Kelce lateral that was erased due to an offsides penalty…on Toney. WOOF.
Next 3 Weeks: NE, LV and CIN.
Denver Broncos
Hold Javonte Williams, Add Samaje Perine, Jerry Jeudy, Drop Jaleel McLaughlin, Add Greg Dulcich, Hold Courtland Sutton
Javonte Williams led the rushing attack with 66 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries (3 red-zone carries). Williams was targeted 4 times, accounting for 13.3% target share. Caught 3 on a 60% snap share while leading the RB room in routes run.
Samaje Perine received 5 targets – catching all 5 – constituting a 17% target share. Added 2 carries for 8 yards.
Jaleel McLaughlin had 5 carries for 25 yards (2 targets).
Courtland Sutton was a standout in the receiving corps, catching 3 passes for 62 yards and a ONE-HANDED touchdown. Jerry Jeudy saw 6 targets, representing 20% of the target share. Alas, just two catches for 16 yards with a few drops sprinkled in. 77% air yards share that he couldn’t convert on.
He also played just 57% of the snaps, tied with Lil’ Jordan Humphrey. Woof. Only ran a route on 70% of the dropbacks.
Jeudy had all the makings of a big game last week, that just didn’t come to fruition. If you are a massive underdog in your playoff matchup and need a miracle Hail Mary play, Jeudy is your guy in the plus-matchup. Denver plays the Lions next. They can’t stop any WRs. And the game is at Ford Field – the Coors Field of the NFL. He’s heavily discounted at $4,700 on DraftKings’ 3-game Saturday-only slate.
Then it’s the Patriots and Chargers. Top-5 ROS for QBs per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
Los Angeles Chargers
Add Gerald Everett, Sell Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Avoid Quentin Johnston
Austin Ekeler led the rushing with 51 yards on 10 carries and scored a touchdown. Isaiah Spiller rushed 6 times for 19 yards and Joshua Kelley had 3 carries for 6 yards.
It was much more split in the first half with the RB carries 4, 3 and 2 respectively, between the trio of RBs.
Ekeler also caught 5 balls for 49 yards on 7 targets, while seizing a 66% snap share. He’s operating on thin margins with the team experimenting with other RBs on early downs. Sell him in non-PPR formats. And look to bet his unders on rushing even against the Raiders’ bad run defense.
He just needs targets at this point in half/full PPR, and you are praying he scores. He ran 33 routes compared to 7 routes between Spiller/Kelley in Week 14.
The passing game was split between Easton Stick, who completed 13 of 24 passes for 179 yards, and Justin Herbert, who added 96 yards from 9 completions out of 17 attempts after leaving the game with a finger injury. Herbert will not play on Thursday night.
With Stick in the game, here is how the targets were distributed on his 24 pass attempts.
- Keenan Allen – 9 (38%)
- Austin Ekeler – 5 (21%)
- Gerald Everett – 4 (17%)
- Alex Erickson – 3
- Quentin Johnston – 2
- Donald Parham – 1
Quentin Johnston emerged as a significant receiver with 91 yards from 3 receptions (4 targets). 57-yard long. Played his largest role with an 88% snap share and a route on all but one QB dropback. And he still only had 4 targets in the entire game…
Keenan Allen was a target hog (12) but 6 catches for 68 yards. Fantasy managers should be worried for Allen without Herbert under center.
My GUY Alex Erickson, 7 targets. One catch. Woof. 66% snap share. This guy should not be playing this much. He played ahead of Jalen Guyton (32% snap share).
Ekeler and Gerald Everett also contributed to the receiving game, but the team struggled to find the end zone through the air. Everett caught 5 balls for 39 yards on 8 targets (20% target share). But more importantly, Mt. Everett ran a route on 71% of the dropbacks. By far the best route usage to date for the Chargers tight end. If it holds, he can be a weekly TE starter for the rest of the season.
Remaining schedule: The Raiders (TNF), Bills and Broncos (again).
Seattle Seahawks
Sell Kenneth Walker, Buy DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sell/Hold Tyler Lockett
The rushing efforts were led by Zach Charbonnet with 44 yards on 9 carries, showing a strong average of 4.9 yards per carry. Kenneth Walker III also contributed with 21 yards on 8 carries. Still, Charbs out-carried Walker 7 to 4 in the first half and overall in the game.
Walker ended with the higher snap rate (56%) as he ran the most routes but it was not a massive split, as Charbonnet played 42% of the snaps.
We shall see if this Walker receiving usage continues, as it was not like this before his injury. Would be very hesitant to trust Walker with tough RB matchups approaching. The strange usage could be that Walker was simpler the healthier RB with more time removed from his injury compared to the first-year man out of UCLA.
Tyler Lockett was a key receiver, catching all 6 of his targets for 89 yards (19% target share). Not sure we can buy this high-end efficiency when Lockett has not been efficient at all this season. Still, the matchups for the passing game make all the Seattle WRs legitimate options for the fantasy playoffs.
DK Metcalf followed with 52 yards and a touchdown on 2 receptions from 6 targets. Saw over 100 air yards.
Lockett’s 6 targets represented about 19% target share, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 8 targets, approximately 23% target share (5 targets in the first half). JSN led the team in targets for the second straight game, but he only managed 4 catches for 25 yards.
He also played 71% of the snaps and ran a route on 79% of the dropbacks. Both increased from last week. If for some reason Geno Smith can’t go again, buy the JSN-Drew Lock connection. Lock has looked toward Smith-Njigba the most in his games with the most playing time this season.
Walker saw 5 targets, comprising 16% of each of the total pass attempts. Charbonnet only saw 1 target. Walker caught four of his targets for 33 yards (2 red-zone targets).
The Seahawks take on Philly, Tennessee and Pittsburgh to close the season.
I am shooting for Ken Walker under rushing props for Week 15 this week while looking at overs on the Seattle WRs.
San Francisco 49ers
Hold Deebo Samuel, Buy Brandon Aiyuk, Hold George Kittle
Christian McCaffrey led the rushing attack with 145 yards on 16 carries, averaging an impressive 9.1 yards per carry. While he didn’t score a touchdown, his longest run was a remarkable 72 yards. Got taken out after falling just short of the end zone, which led to the Jordan Mason TD.
Through the air, Brock Purdy completed 19 of 27 passes for 368 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Deebo Samuel was a standout receiver, hauling in 7 catches for 149 yards and a touchdown (33% target share).
Brandon Aiyuk also made a significant impact with 6 receptions for 126 yards. Samuel and Aiyuk each received 9 targets, accounting for 33.3% target share each. Aiyuk saw more air yards. Aiyuk is cheaper than Samuel on DraftKings this week.
George Kittle added 76 receiving yards and a touchdown on 3 catches. Kittle was targeted 5 times (18.5%).
The 49ers play the Cardinals, Ravens and Commanders to close out the season.
Another week to take the early line projection OVERs on 49ers players. The last time these two teams squared off, it was a massive game for Brandon Aiyuk and CMC.
Purdy’s favorite target was Aiyuk, who recorded an impressive 148 receiving yards on 6 targets. 129 air yards (79%). McCaffrey showcased his versatility by rushing for 106 yards on 20 carries and scoring three rushing touchdowns. In the passing game, he added 71 receiving yards and a touchdown on 8 targets. His Prizepicks rushing line has opened at 82.5 rushing yards. Smells like an over.
Samuel…had no catches or targets back in Week 4. Came into that game banged up. And when one 49ers is hurt/limited all the others FEAST. Well, in this case, just two. George Kittle. 1 for 9 despite running a route on all but one of Purdy’s dropbacks.
Purdy threw for 283 yards back in that game. In his last 7 games, Purdy has thrown for fewer than 270 yards once. Take the passing yards MORE THAN with Purdy on Prizepicks with his line set at 264.5 passing yards.
Dallas Cowboys
Add Rico Dowdle, Hold Brandin Cooks
The rushing game was led by Tony Pollard with 16 carries for 59 yards, and Rico Dowdle added a touchdown among his 12 carries for 46 yards. Pollard played 72% of the snaps to Dowdle’s 28% snap share. Dowdle led the Cowboys in carries in the first half (8 vs 6), while Pollard saw the most red zone carries (3). Dowdle is a desperation flex play in the league’s best offense but remains a high-end handcuff that needs to be rostered in the fantasy football playoffs.
Quarterback Dak Prescott contributed with 3 carries as well.
Prescott also led the passing game, completing 24 out of 39 attempts for 271 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions. His primary targets were CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson, with Lamb catching a touchdown pass. Michael Gallup also scored a receiving touchdown.
Lamb was targeted 10 times, leading the team. 6 receptions for 71 yards, 1 touchdown.
Jake Ferguson received 8 targets. 5 receptions for 72 yards. (21% target share).
Tony Pollard also had 8 targets. 7 receptions for 37 yards (21% target share).
Michael Gallup was targeted 5 times. 3 receptions for 48 yards, and 1 touchdown. Played 49% of the snaps ahead of Jalen Tolbert (45%) while running more routes.
Brandin Cooks had 5 targets as well. 2 receptions for 37 yards. Saw multiple targets near the end zone, but Cooks couldn’t convert on a score. Also saw another downfield pass that was not in the box score because of an offsides call. Still the WR2 in an extremely high-powered offense. Hold him.
Rico Dowdle received 1 target. 1 reception for 6 yards.
Jalen Tolbert (45% snap share) and KaVontae Turpin each had 1 target, but no receptions.
Dallas plays the Bills, the Dolphins and the Lions to wrap up the fantasy football season. Shootouts, shootouts and more shootouts.
Ergo, more overs on the Dallas offensive players across the board.
Philadelphia Eagles
Buy/Hold D’Andre Swift, Add Kenneth Gainwell
The rushing attack was led by D’Andre Swift with 11 carries for 39 yards, while Jalen Hurts added 30 yards on 5 carries. Swift played 51% of the snaps to Kenneth Gainwell’s 45% snap share (28 v 25). Gainwell only had 4 carries for 28 yards. Neither RB was targeted. Not good for Swift. But the matchups get ELITE for him as a rusher during the fantasy postseason. Just know his ceiling is limited with a lack of receiving and TD equity with the presence of the tush push.
In the passing game, Hurts completed 18 of 27 attempts for 197 yards.
A.J. Brown was the top receiver with 13 targets, resulting in 9 catches for 94 yards. (46% target share), 49% air yards share).
DeVonta Smith followed closely with 10 targets (36% target share) and 5 receptions for 73 yards. Smith saw an end zone target from Hurts that he couldn’t come up with in the 3rd quarter. 100% route participation.
Dallas Goedert and Olamide Zaccheaus also contributed, with Goedert catching all 4 of his targets – 4 receptions for 30 yards – and Zaccheaus turning his single target into a 28-yard reception. He played ahead of Julio Jones in terms of raw snaps played.
Goedert returned from his arm injury to a full-time role, playing 84% of the snaps. Ran a route on all but two of the dropbacks.
Philly has Seattle next week. Then it’s the Giants and Cardinals.
Tennessee Titans
Add Tyjae Spears, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Hold DeAndre Hopkins, Derrick Henry
Quarterback Will Levis completed 23 out of 38 passes for 327 yards, achieving one touchdown and one interception. He was sacked once. Derrick Henry rushed 17 times for 34 yards, scoring two touchdowns, and caught one pass for 17 yards. Henry had just 2 targets.
Tyjae Spears had seven rushing attempts for 29 yards and made six receptions for 89 yards on 8 targets (22% target share). In the negative game script, Spears dominated the snaps with a 66% snap rate to Henry’s 48%.
DeAndre Hopkins made a significant impact with seven catches for 124 yards and one touchdown on a team-high 12 targets (3 red-zone targets): 171 air yards and 33% target share.
Other contributors included Chigoziem Okonkwo and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, with Okonkwo catching five passes for 46 yards on 6 targets (17% target share). Chig played 68% of the snaps and ran a route on 74% of the dropbacks. The usage is trending upward for the trendy breakout tight end that has failed to live up to offseason expectations thus far. Routes and snaps are increasing. Also, 5 targets or more in 4 of the last 5 games. Houston is allowing the 5th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season.
Westbrook-Ikhine had 4 targets, catching 2 for 28 yards. He played the most WR snaps (89%). Treylon Burks was hardly involved despite playing 65% of the snaps.
The Texans (at home), Seattle and Houston round out the rest of the season. Overall, it’s a favorable schedule for the offense to produce fantasy points.
Top-5 ROS for QBs per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
Miami Dolphins
Hold Raheem Mostert, Drop Jeff Wilson Jr., Buy Jaylen Waddle, Add Cedrick Wilson, Add Dolphins DST
Tua Tagovailoa completed 23 out of 33 passes for 240 yards. No player saw more than 70 air yards in the dink-and-dunk passing effort, that saw Miami lose offensive linemen throughout the contest.
He was sacked five times, losing 32 yards, but managed to rush for 15 yards on three attempts. Raheem Mostert led the rushing with 96 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries. Mostert was the starting RB throughout on early downs, bogarting the red-zone opportunities (6) and the dominant snap share (64%).
In receiving, Jaylen Waddle caught 6 of 8 targets for 79 yards (24% target share), while Tyreek Hill had 61 yards from 5 receptions (15% target share). Hill was injured in the game early on that limited his playing time to just a 47% snap share.
Cedrick Wilson saw an increase in targets with Hill out of the lineup. He played 56% of the snaps and earned 4 targets catching 2 for 30 yards (1 end-zone target).
De’Von Achane also contributed with 5 receptions for 24 yards from 9 targets (Team-high 27% target share) on a 46% snap share. Tagovailoa just missed on a big downfield pass that would have easily gone for 6.
He also carried the ball 7 times for 47 yards. He’s got the edge over Mostert as the team’s preferred receiver – as has been the case with all non-Mostert Dolphins RBs this season. Mostert had 1 target on Monday night.
Jeff Wilson Jr. played one snap.
The Dolphins had two fumbles in the game. They also lost the game despite being up 14 points with fewer than 5 minutes remaining on the clock.
Miami has the Jets at home, the Cowboys and the Ravens in the next 3 weeks. Second-worst ROS for QBs per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
Green Bay Packers
Add Jayden Reed, Hold Christian Watson, Stash GB DST, Add Tucker Kraft, Hold A.J. Dillon,
Jordan Love completed 25 of 39 passes for 218 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. He was sacked twice and had one fumble. AJ Dillon led the ground game with 53 yards on 15 carries (53% snap share). He also added two catches for 25 yards on 3 targets. Patrick Taylor Jr. had a limited role, seeing most of his snaps during the 2-minute drill (2 targets).
In receiving, tight end Tucker Kraft had 64 yards on 4 catches on 4 targets (100% snap share), while Jayden Reed added 27 yards from 8 receptions on 10 targets and also scored a rushing touchdown. Reed was heavily involved throughout the entire game with 12 total touches (4 carries for 38 yards). It was all short stuff, but the sheer will to get him the ball in this offense was evident. Team-high 26% target share for the rookie with 2 red-zone targets. Also ranked second in WR routes run and snaps played.
Kraft has an elite tight end matchup versus the Buccaneers in Week 15.
Romeo Doubs (multiple drops) and Samori Toure also contributed with 32 and 22 receiving yards, respectively. Malik Heath scored a receiving touchdown (2 red-zone targets). Doubs was super inefficient catching just 4 of his 7 targets (2 red-zone targets). It’s a good matchup for Doubs in Week 15, so he’s a desperation WR plug-in option. He played the most WR snaps for Green Bay on Monday night (82%) and ran a route on all but 2 dropbacks (95%).
Dontayvion Wicks went 2 for 20 yards on 6 targets. Led the team in air yards as the 1-for-1 replacement for Christian Watson. But he also got banged up during the game.
Three turnovers killed the Packers in this game, although the offense put them in a position to win toward the end. However, their defense was unable to hold of the Giants’ final efforts.
The Buccaneers, Panthers, and Vikings are next for the GB Packers. Note the easy playoff schedule. Stash the DST and the talented crop of playmakers at Love’s disposal.
New York Giants
Add Wan’Dale Robinson, Sell Saquon Barkley, Add Darren Waller
Tommy DeVito efficiently led the offense, completing 17 of 21 passes for 158 yards and a touchdown, achieving a passer rating of 113.9. Saquon Barkley was a standout in the running game, carrying 20 times for 86 yards and scoring 2 touchdowns, while also catching 3 passes for 15 yards (4 targets). Wan’Dale Robinson contributed significantly with 79 receiving yards on 6 catches from 7 targets (35% target share). Played 79% of the snaps and commanded a whopping 56% air yard share (70 air yards).
Isaiah Hodgins caught a touchdown pass on one of his 2 targets while playing just 36% of the snaps (5 routes run). Barkley, however, lost a fumble during the game. Luckily for Big Blue, they were able to rally a victory in the end.
Darius Slayton led all Giants WRs in snaps played (93%), while Jalin Hyatt ranked second in routes.
New Orleans and Philadelphia are next for the Giants. Tougher matchups for the ground game could make life difficult for Barkley.
No.1 ROS for TEs per the FantasyPros SOS tool. If Waller returns…he could be a force in the fantasy football playoffs.
Teams off bye weeks:
Washington Commanders
Add Antonio Gibson, Drop Jahan Dotson, Add Logan Thomas, Add Curtis Samuel
Brian Robinson Led with 53 yards on 7 carries (7.6 avg), but left the game at the end of the first half with a hamstring injury (22% snap share) back in Week 13. Did not return in the second half. Antonio Gibson added 35 yards on 10 carries. While No. 3 RB Chris Rodriguez contributed 29 yards on 7 attempts.
Antonio Gibson also had 37 receiving yards from 5 targets on a 56% snap share.
Add Gibson even with the Commanders coming off a bye week in Week 14. No guarantee, Robinson is healthy after the bye week.
Curtis Samuel was the top receiver with 65 yards on 4 receptions from 5 targets (22% target share, 44% air yards share). When he’s healthy, his target floor is infinite.
Jahan Dotson caught 2 passes for 23 yards on 5 targets (23% target share). 2nd worst receiving EPA in Week 13. Drop him.
Limited contributions from Logan Thomas and Terry McLaurin. TMC 3 targets (14% target share, 30% air yards share). Zero catches. Thomas saw 1 target but also caught a two-point conversion. He can be dropped during the bye week. However, the Rams Week 15 matchup is somewhat soft – 4th in most PPR points per game allowed to tight ends – so there’s credence to streaming him this week. He’s $3,700 on DraftKings this week.
The remaining after the Week 14 Bye Week features the Los Angeles (Rams), New York (Jets) and the 49ers. It’s a tough schedule for the rest of the season.
Worst ROS for QBs per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
Arizona Cardinals
Buy Marquise Brown, Add Michael Wilson, Sell James Conner
James Conner dominated the ground game with 105 yards on 25 carries, averaging 4.2 yards per carry and scoring 2 touchdowns. Big homecoming game for Conner (2 targets) with him getting fed in the red zone with 8 carries. 76% snap share.
Broke in the second half, as in the first half Conner was stuck on 10 carries for 17 yards.
RB2 Michael Carter contributed efficiently with 25 yards on 4 carries, showcasing an impressive 6.3 yards per attempt. Appears like the new handcuff to Conner. Worth noting that Emeri Demercado was injured during the game, so this could change after the bye week.
Trey McBride emerged as Murray’s top target, receiving 9 targets (39% target share) and making 8 catches for 89 yards and a touchdown. 6-67-1 on 7 targets in the first half. Also saw 2 red-zone targets.
Marquise Brown left the Week 13 game with a heel injury. Rondale Moore had a 33-yard TD nullified due to a penalty.
Nobody else saw more than 3 targets (Brown/Greg Dortch). Dortch led in routes run but can be dropped and left on waivers with Michael Wilson likely coming back. However, you have to hold/add Hollywood Brown with the easy schedule rest of the season for WRs.
After the bye week, the Cardinals face SF, CHI and PHI.
But it’s a bottom-2 ROS for RBs per the FantasyPros SOS tool. Can’t help but think Week 13 might have been the peak for Conner’s fantasy production. Take the under on Conner’s rushing yards props in Week 15. And conversely, take the MORE THAN on Kyler Murray’s 216.5 passing yards number. He has gone over this in both of his two home starts this season. And no team in the NFL faces a higher pass rate than the 49ers defense.
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