Welcome back, fellow fantasy football GAMERS! The NFL season is marching steadily toward Week 14, and the fantasy football playoffs are looming large on the horizon. As we step into Week 14, we’re excited to present the latest edition of the 2023 usage report, bringing you the key action items you need as fantasy managers.
Note that with the majority of trade deadlines passed, I will be shifting gears in terms of “buy/sell” segments. Instead of viewing buy/sell in a traditional way in trades, it will be used more to forecast the player as stock up/stock down from Weeks 14-18. I’ll be including more direct advice in terms of DFS and Prizepicks, for those that are looking for more action if the season-long didn’t go the way you planned.
And there’s no better time than now to sign up for Prizepicks, with our sports betting site BettingPros offering the Prizepicks Cheat Sheet – the fastest and easiest to pick out the best picks to add to your slip. Sign up today with my promo code: PR-REQ653D for up to $25 in promo funds instantly.
So, without further ado, let’s dive into the Week 14 Fantasy Football Forecast!
And per usual…
The snap counts thread:
Teams coming off Week 13 bye weeks
- Baltimore Ravens
- Buffalo Bills
- Chicago Bears
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Minnesota Vikings
- New York Giants
Week 14 bye weeks
- Arizona Cardinals
- Washington Commanders
Fantasy Football Forecast
Seattle Seahawks
Sell Zach Charbonnet/Kenneth Walker, Buy DK Metcalf, Hold Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sell Tyler Lockett
Zach Charbonnet took the lead in the running game with Kenneth Walker out, earning 19 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown. DeeJay Dallas had a single carry for 6 yards (2 targets). Charbonnet also contributed in the passing game with a 39-yard reception (2 targets) falling just short of a second TD on a 61% snap share. The RBs split usage running routes. However should be noted that Charbs left the game late with an injury. That explains the lower snap rate from the rookie, who was close to the 80% range in the last 2 games.
The schedule doesn’t get much better for Seattle RBs.
DK Metcalf had a massive game, being targeted 8 times and making 6 catches for an impressive 134 yards, averaging 22.3 yards per catch, and scoring 3 touchdowns. His longest reception was a stunning 73-yard TD catch that he caught in the opening quarter. On the field for 62 snaps (90%) while commanding 3 red-zone targets (2 for TDs).
He was seeing all the high-value targets a week ago, and finally cashed in BIG.
Rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba led Seattle in targets with 11 (29% target share), converting them into 7 receptions for 62 yards. He also had a TD catch that was overturned. Saw considerable playing time with 46 snaps (67%). Also ran a route on 74% of the dropbacks.
The first-round rookie WR is starting to break out before our eyes. He is making plays left and right and seems like he is finally back from that preseason injury that stunted his production to open the year.
The 11 targets are an impressive number. But when you count plays nullified by penalties, Smith-Njigba actually saw a whopping 14 targets on Thursday night.
And JSN has now posted 40-plus receiving yards in 7 of his last 8 games since the bye week. With him coming off a large target game I love the MORE THAN on his 44.5 receiving yards line on Prizepicks.
Tyler Lockett was targeted 8 times, catching 5 passes for just 47 yards. Participated in 61 snaps (88%). The lack of peak performance and low efficiency continues for the veteran. Had a massive drop in the fourth quarter that would have been a huge gain for the Seattle offense.
Noah Fant made 3 catches on 4 targets, gaining 43 yards in the process. 64% snap share.
The Seahawks take on SF (again), Philly, Tennessee and Pittsburgh to close out the season. More shootouts and favorable passing matchups are on deck for this Seahawks unit. Top-3 ROS for WRs per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
Dallas Cowboys
Add Rico Dowdle, Buy Tony Pollard, Add Brandin Cooks, Buy Dak Prescott
Tony Pollard led the rushing with 20 carries for 68 yards, averaging 3.4 yards per carry, and scoring a touchdown. His longest run was 16 yards. Also received 4 targets in the passing game, catching 3 for 15 yards.
Pollard’s presence in 69 snaps (78%) underscored his dual role in rushing and passing plays.
Rico Dowdle contributed 15 yards on 5 carries, and also received 1 target. Participated in 16 snaps (18%) on offense.
Dowdle had been getting some love as potentially earning standalone value, but that’s hardly the case with Pollard’s recent production boost. He’s not doing much to take fantasy value from Pollard. Dowdle is just a handcuff that should be rostered in case of injury.
CeeDee Lamb dominated the receiving corps with 17 targets (43% target share) converting them into 12 receptions for 116 yards and 1 touchdown (6 red-zone targets).
Jake Ferguson and Brandin Cooks also made key contributions, with Ferguson catching 6 passes for 77 yards and a touchdown (8 targets), while Cooks caught 4 passes for 45 yards and a touchdown (4 targets). Cooks played in 80 snaps (90%), reinforcing his status as a key receiver. He also converted on the two-point conversion try.
If the Cowboys’ offense remains cooking – very likely – you need to keep Cooks in starting lineups as the clear-cut WR2 on this offense. Philly is next in another projected shootout.
Jalen Tolbert was targeted once and made a significant 17-yard catch. Saw action in 32 snaps (36%) on offense. Also drew a DPI on a deep pass.
Michael Gallup was targeted once but did not record a reception. Was limited to 41 snaps (46%). Tolbert – for the first time in many weeks – did not play ahead of Gallup.
These two split duties as the Cowboys WR3. Not much juice to squeeze from fantasy unless one of the guys above them in the target pecking order gets hurt.
Philly is next for the Dallas Cowboys. Then the Bills, the Dolphins and the Lions to wrap up the fantasy football season. Shootout, shootout and more shootouts.
Top-3 ROS for QBs per the FantasyPros SOS tool. Top-3 ROS for WRs per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
And it’s a high-projected game environment that has me all over the MORE THAN on Dak Prescott’s passing yards on Prizepicks. The line opened at 279.5 passing yards. Prescott has gone over this number in 5 of his last 6 games. The Eagles defense ranks second in pass play rate faced this season allowing the 3rd-most passing yards per game. 4 of the last 5 QBs the Eagles have faced have gone for 300-plus passing yards. Pitch and catch folks.
Pair Prescott with CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks. Lamb has gone over 89.5 yards in four of his last 6 games. He went for 191 against the Eagles a few weeks back, while Prescott tossed for 374 yards.
Cooks has 40-plus receiving yards in five of his last 6 games. Take the MORE THAN on his receiving yards line set at 45.5 yards.
New England Patriots
Add Ezekiel Elliott, DeVante Parker, Demario Douglas
Ezekiel Elliott led with 17 carries for 52 yards while Rhamondre Stevenson contributed 39 yards on 9 carries. Stevenson left with an ankle injury after getting hurt in the 1st quarter. Shame, because he was cooking before exiting the game. Elliott: Had 40 receiving yards from 5 targets (20% target share) on 4 receptions while playing a dominant 69% snap share.
DeVante Parker was the top receiver with 64 yards on 4 receptions from 9 targets (38% target share). Saw nearly 150 air yards and a 52% air yards share. 5th in weighted opportunity in Week 13 among all WRs.
Hard to beat the usage Parker saw, but note that it came with Demario Douglas out of the lineup. Should the rookie return, we will not see Parker used nearly as favorably.
Hunter Henry caught 2 passes on 4 targets (17% target share). JuJu Smith-Schuster managed 11 yards from 3 targets.
Tyquan Thornton had a notable 39-yard run, but also dropped a long TD on his one target.
Next up for the tanking Patriots, it’s the Steelers (Thursday Night Football) and the Chiefs. Close out the year with the Broncos and Bills.
Stevenson is not likely to play soon, especially on a short week. The team might put him on ice rest of the season. That slates Elliott to be the bell cow on a short week and for the remainder of the season, with Ty Montgomery and JaMycal Hasty (inactive in Week 13) sprinkling as breather backs.
Los Angeles Chargers
Add Gerald Everett, Hold Austin Ekeler, Avoid Quentin Johnston
Austin Ekeler mustered just 18 yards on 14 carries (3 targets). Joshua Kelley added 16 yards from 6 carries (3 targets).
The duo split snaps more closely (57% versus 43%) than in recent weeks, but that was likely just about game flow, as neither offense had any momentum. Would expect Ekeler to bounce back in positive matchups upcoming. Teams need to temper expectations for RBs facing the Patriots on the ground.
Keenan Allen totaled just 58 yards from 5 catches on 9 targets (24% target share). Rookie Quentin Johnston secured 52 yards from 7 targets (19% target share). 5 receptions but also dropped another pass. His snaps and routes increased after he was benched last week.
Still, he’s impossible to trust with his butterfingers.
Gerald Everett contributed 44 yards on 5 targets (14% target share). Team-high 4 targets in the first half. He continues to see underwhelming usage with other tight ends, but at least he gets targeted on a semi-consistent basis. Donald Parham caught two passes on 4 targets.
Alex Erickson made a significant 23-yard catch on his only target.
Remaining schedule: Broncos, Raiders, Bills and Broncos (again). Bottom-3 ROS for WRs per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
Great matchup for Everett as a streamable tight end against the Broncos’ No. 32-ranked defense versus tight ends.
Tennessee Titans
Add Tyjae Spears, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Hold DeAndre Hopkins
Derrick Henry dominated with 102 yards and 2 touchdowns on 21 carries, averaging 4.9 yards per attempt (2 targets). Most of the production was early in the game as Henry missed time later with an injury. Currently in the concussion protocol – although according to Mike Vrabel this is no longer the case.
As a result, Tyjae Spears saw a heavy workload with 75 yards on 16 carries. Was also targeted 6 times, catching four balls for 13 yards. Also saw work in the red zone with 3 carries and 1 red-zone target. 67% snap share. Regardless of Henry’s status, Spears should see heavy usage in negative game script versus Miami in Week 14.
DeAndre Hopkins: Led the receivers with 75 yards and a touchdown on 5 receptions from 12 targets (36.4% target share). 2 red-zone targets.
Tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo made significant contributions with 62 yards on 3 receptions (6 targets). Not a horrible streaming option against the Dolphins on MNF. Josh Whyle’s snaps decreased from the week prior while Okonkwo ran a route on 65% of dropbacks and played 59% of the snaps. 5 targets or more in 3 of last 4 games.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine operated as the WR2, followed by Chris Moore. Treylon Burks’ return made no difference other than Kyle Phillips being a healthy inactive.
The Dolphins, Texans, Seattle and Houston round out the rest of the season. Overall, it’s a favorable schedule for the offense to produce fantasy points. Top-3 ROS for QBs per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
Indianapolis Colts
Hold Zack Moss, Hold Michael Pittman Jr., Buy Josh Downs, Avoid Alec Pierce, Add Colts DST
Zack Moss managed 51 yards on 19 carries, but with a modest 2.7 yards per attempt. Was targeted thrice for 2 catches and 6 yards. He played a whopping 94% of the snaps and totaled 9 touches in the red zone. Alas, no scores for Moss despite the best usage you could see for a running back.
He is vastly underpriced on DraftKings this week at $5,900 in a much better matchup.
Tyler Goodson also drew 2 targets.
Michael Pittman Jr. was the No. 1 target with 105 yards and a game-winning touchdown on 11 catches from 16 targets (39% target share). 2 red-zone targets.
Alec Pierce made big plays, totaling 100 yards and a touchdown (6 targets, 3 receptions). 2 red-zone targets and 136 air yards.
Josh Downs drew 5 targets but finished with just 3 catches for 14 yards. Still ran a route on 79% of dropbacks. Buy low. $4,900 on DraftKings in Week 14.
And don’t fall for the Alec Pierce big game. He runs mostly perimeter routes and this was just the dream matchup for him to hit against the pass-funnel Titans defense.
Kylen Granson led the tight ends with 72 receiving yards (3 targets). Will Mallory also saw 4 targets. The Colts had 4 different tight ends run 12-13 routes. The ultimate tight end by committee. Woof.
The Colts will play the Bengals and Steelers next, followed by the Falcons/Raiders. Their DST is very much in play for the playoffs.
Houston Texans
Add Noah Brown, Brevin Jordan, Sell Dameon Pierce, Hold Devin Singletary, Add Texans DST
Dameon Pierce: Led the ground game with 41 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries. Zero targets.
Devin Singletary: Added 36 yards on 8 attempts, showing effective running. 1 target.
Dameon Pierce out-carried Singletary 7 to 6 in the first half. Also scored on one of his 4 total carries inside the 20-yard line.
But despite all the usage for Pierce, he still only played 38% of the snaps to Singletary’s 46% snap share -with the latter seeing the more involved role running routes. It’s turning into a dreaded committee with Pierce operating on early downs primarily and Singletary as the pass-catching back. Both need to be rostered as they can be used in specific matchups. But I wouldn’t hitch my wagon to Pierce long term. RB’s schedule the rest of the way is not ideal. Singletary also still started this past game.
Nico Collins: Had a standout game, amassing 191 yards and a touchdown on 9 receptions from 12 targets (46% target share). 4-122 on 6 targets in the first half. Also commanded 3 red-zone targets. Nearly 150 air yards. 2nd among all WRs in weighted opportunity.
Still, he and C.J. Stroud will be tasked with a difficult matchup in Week 12 against the New York Jets air-tight defense in Week 14. The Jets are allowing fewer than 200 passing yards per game to opposing QBs. Only one QB they have faced this season has gone over 256 yards – which is Stroud’s Prizepicks passing yards projection this week. His projection in the Prizepicks Draft Prop Cheat Sheet is 242 passing yards.
They have also allowed the fewest receiving yards per game to WRs, ranking 3rd in fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs.
Stroud was mortal against the Broncos’ defense at home this past, throwing for just 274 yards. His yardage numbers have dropped in 5 straight games. I think the trend continues with the tough matchup on deck. And if he goes UNDER his projected passing yardage, chances are he will bring his WR1 with him. Collins on the road this season has been held to 40 or fewer receiving yards in 3 of 4 road games.
Brevin Jordan: Contributed significantly with 64 yards on 3 catches (4 targets, 15%). Very strong usage at 77% route participation.
Tank Dell fractured his fibula and is going to be placed on IR. Horrible way to end a sensational rookie season.
John Metchie III also saw 3 targets, while Noah Brown saw 2. Robert Woods was not targeted.
Most notably, Brown tied Collins for the most snaps and routes run at WR (81%). Must add now that Dell is gone for the season, even after the dud versus Denver.
The Jets and the Titans are next followed by the Browns/Titans (again).
Denver Broncos
Sell Javonte Williams, Add Samaje Perine, Drop Jerry Jeudy, Jaleel McLaughlin, Add Greg Dulcich, Hold Courtland Sutton
Javonte Williams Led the Broncos with 46 yards on 13 carries, showcasing consistency. Caught all 3 of his targets for 24 yards. 65% snap share while leading the backfield in routes run. He’s an unconventional bellcow who has me somewhat concerned with tougher matchups.
Jaleel McLaughlin provided supplementary ground support, collectively adding to the team’s rushing totals with 4 carries for 15 yards. Also saw 2 targets.
Samaje Perine had 1 carry. Perine also saw 2 targets.
1st half: Williams had 7 carries for 32 yards. Mclaughlin 2 carries, Perine 1.
Courtland Sutton: Made a significant impact with 77 yards and a touchdown on just 2 catches, including a long of 45 yards (29.2% target share). Totaled 216 air yards – 69% air yards share.
Jerry Jeudy: Contributed with 51 yards on 3 receptions (4 targets).
Russell Wilson: Completed 15 out of 26 passes for 186 yards but struggled with accuracy, throwing 3 interceptions, and achieving a passer rating of 53.2.
Wilson has thrown for 200-plus yards once in his last 8 games.
Can’t help but lean toward the LESS than on Russell Wilson’s Prizepicks line set at 211.5 yards. He has one game of 200-plus passing in his last 8 games…
Denver plays the Los Angeles Chargers and the Lions over the next 2 weeks. Then it’s the Patriots and Chargers (again).
Generally, a favorable schedule for the passing game for Wilson and his top pass-catchers. Top-3 ROS for QBs per the FantasyPros SOS tool. Top-3 ROS for WRs per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
This is for anyone who is riding Adam Trautman in two TE leagues. He ran fewer routes than Lucas Krull in Week 13. Don’t trust Trautman.
Miami Dolphins
Hold Raheem Mostert, Drop Jeff Wilson Jr., Buy Jaylen Waddle
Devon Achane stood out with 73 yards and 2 touchdowns (3 red-zone carries) on 17 carries while playing 61% of the snaps. However, the majority of his production came in the second half with the game over by halftime. 4 targets overall.
Raheem Mostert added a touchdown, rushing for 43 yards on 11 carries (1 target). He had 2 red-zone carries. He only played 38% of the snaps in a blow-out victory.
First half usage…
Raheem Mostert with 9 carries and 35 yards. 1 target. De’Von Achane had 2 catches and 3 carries in the first half (16% target share).
I think we continue to see split work between these two RBs, but in the NFL’s best-scoring offense, there is more than enough to go around. I’d also lean on Achane to continue as the preferred receiving back, as Mostert has lost work as a receiver to all other Dolphins RBs at separate times this season.
Jeff Wilson Jr. contributed 11 yards on 4 attempts. They all came inside the 20-yard line in the fourth quarter with the game already in hand. Not much fantasy value with Wilson as the RB3 in the backfield.
Tyreek Hill dominated with 157 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5 catches from 7 targets (28% target share).
Jaylen Waddle: Contributed 52 yards on 5 receptions from 8 targets (32% target share, 43% air yards share). You’d think eventually one of these big games would go Waddle’s way especially with him seeing a high-end target share (30%) in the last two games. Tua Tagovailoa missed him deep because of a defensive pass interference.
Miami has the Titans (who will be without DL Jeffery Simmons), Jets, Cowboys and Ravens in the next 4 weeks.
Washington Commanders
Add Antonio Gibson, Drop Jahan Dotson, Logan Thomas, Add Curtis Samuel
Brian Robinson Led with 53 yards on 7 carries (7.6 avg), but left the game at the end of the first half with a hamstring injury (22% snap share). Did not return in the second half. Antonio Gibson added 35 yards on 10 carries. While No. 3 RB Chris Rodriguez contributed 29 yards on 7 attempts.
Antonio Gibson also had 37 receiving yards from 5 targets on a 56% snap share.
Add Gibson even with the Commanders on a bye week in Week 14. No guarantee, Robinson is healthy after the bye week.
Curtis Samuel was the top receiver with 65 yards on 4 receptions from 5 targets (22% target share, 44% air yards share). When he’s healthy, his target floor is infinite.
Jahan Dotson caught 2 passes for 23 yards on 5 targets (23% target share). 2nd worst receiving EPA in Week 13. Drop him.
Limited contributions from Logan Thomas and Terry McLaurin. TMC 3 targets (14% target share, 30% air yards share). Zero catches. Thomas saw 1 target but also caught a two-point conversion. He can be dropped during the bye week. The toughest schedule for fantasy tight ends remaining.
The remaining schedule features a Week 14 Bye Week, Los Angeles (Rams), New York (Jets) and the 49ers. It’s a tough schedule for the rest of the season. Bottom-2 ROS for QBs per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
Atlanta Falcons
Add Kyle Pitts, Buy Bijan Robinson, Buy Drake London, Drop Jonnu Smith, Add Falcons DST
Bijan Robinson gained 53 yards on 18 carries while Tyler Allgeier rushed for 26 yards on 8 carries. Robinson caught 3 passes for 26 receiving yards (5 targets, 20%). 75% snap share. Arthur Smith is finally unlocking his top rookie draft pick.
Only 8 carries for 6 yards in the first half before Robinson got going.
Cordarrelle Patterson: 11 rushing yards on 5 attempts.
Desmond Ridder: Completed 12 of 27 passes for 121 yards, 1 touchdown.
We are seeing less and less of Tyler Allgeier in favor of Patterson. Patterson played 31% of the snaps to Allgeier’s 16% snap rate.
Kyle Pitts: Led with 51 yards on 4 catches from 8 targets (32% target share). Also tallied over 100 air yards while running a route on 90% of dropbacks. His usage has ticked back up at the expense of Jonnu Smith in recent weeks. If Pitts got dropped, he’s an interesting streamer tight end versus the Buccaneers in Week 14. Also, he’s a decent punt tight end option on DraftKings at $3,700. I also like the over on his 35.5 receiving yards prop on Prizepicks. The Bucs are allowing the 5th-most yards per game to tight ends. Pitts went for 47 yards on just 3 catches the last time he faced Tamp Bay.
MyCole Pruitt scored a touchdown, others made limited contributions.
Drake London – one catch for 8 yards on 5 targets (20% target share). 97 air yards turned into a total air ball. Woof. It was a predictably horrible matchup that came to fruition. Not the case in Week 14 against Tampa Bay at home. He’s $4,600 on DraftKings in Week 14.
And he has a discounted receiving yards prop on Prizepicks in Week 14. Just 46.5 receiving yards against a defense that is allowing the second-most receiving yards to WRs in 2023. London had 54 yards against them back in Week 7 and has gone over this number in his last four home games.
The Buccaneers are next. The playoff schedule remains JUICY with Carolina, Indianapolis and the Bears from Weeks 15-17. The Atlanta DST is stash-worthy.
New York Jets
Add Tyler Conklin, Buy Garrett Wilson, Sell Breece Hall,
Dalvin Cook Led with 35 rushing yards on 9 carries (3.9 avg). Breece Hall added just 16 yards on 13 carries (1.2 avg). Woof.
Hall delivered as a receiver with 8 targets, and 6 catches for 29 yards.
Tim Boyle: Completed 14 of 25 passes for 148 yards, 1 interception…Trevor Siemian entered in after Boye was benched. Added 66 yards on 5/13 passing.
Xavier Gipson was the top receiver -operated as the WR2 with a 71% snap share – with 77 yards on 5 receptions from 6 targets (16% target share, 81 air yards). Garrett Wilson was disappointing with 50 yards from 7 targets.
Tyler Conklin contributed 3 catches for just 35 yards despite a team-high 9 targets (25% target share) and 118 air yards (37% air yards share). 5 targets in the first half.
Enough involvement – 74% snap share, 66% route participation – to stream him in some plus-matchups.
Siemian came in in the 4th quarter. He targeted Hall/Conklin thrice and only threw the ball to Wilson one time.
The Jets’ schedule over the remainder of the season is still favorable. The Texans are up next followed by Dolphins, Commanders and Browns. Note it’s better for the passing game than the rushing game for Gang Green. Still, how good it can be is very dependent on the porous QB play.
Detroit Lions
Hold David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs
Jahmyr Gibbs gained 60 yards on 8 carries while backfield mate David Montgomery added 56 yards and a touchdown on a whopping 18 carries. Gibbs ran the ball down to the goal line on a big play and then Monty punched the score in. Gibbs only saw 2 targets in the game. Montgomery also saw 2 targets.
David Montgomery had out-carried Gibbs – 11 versus 6 – in the first half. He also earned the majority of red zone work (4 vs 3) while the duo split routes run 50/50.
Montgomery played 62% of the snaps and Gibbs played 45% of the snaps.
Because Detroit jumped out to a big lead, it was more of a Monty game. These Lions RBs’ ceiling games are tied to game script, but both have high enough floors to be started as high-end fantasy RB2s each week. We could see more of a Gibbs-driven game against the Bears based on how bad they have been against running backs in the passing game this season.
Sam LaPorta was dominant with 140 yards and a touchdown on 9 receptions from 9 targets (36% target share).
Amon-Ra St. Brown: Scored a touchdown with 49 receiving yards (6 targets).
Josh Reynolds caught a key 12-yard reception on 3 targets. One target for Jameson Williams in the first quarter. Never head from again. He needs the Lions in trailing game scripts for him to be useful for fantasy.
After it looked like these two were dead even as the WR2, Reynold overtook Jamo in both snaps and routes run.
The Bears, Broncos, Vikings and Cowboys are following up for the Lions.
New Orleans Saints
Drop Juwan Johnson, Add Saints DST, Hold Alvin Kamara,
Taysom Hill: Led with 59 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries. Totaled 4 red-zone attempts on a 42% snap share. Also caught two balls on 2 targets.
Alvin Kamara: Contributed 51 yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 attempts. Totaled 5 red-zone attempts. 58% snap share. Kamara posted 58 receiving yards on 6 receptions (8 targets, 28%).
First-half carries were 4 for Hill, 7 for Kamara, and 3 for Williams.
Jamaal Williams had 5 carries for 10 yards.
Kamara’s snaps also dropped while both Hill and Williams played more. Second-lowest snap share of the season. Still, the Carolinas/Giants’ upcoming matchups are too good to beat.
Derek Carr: Completed 17 of 22 passes for 226 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception.
Jameis Winston: Added 41 yards on 2/5 passing after Carr left with an injury. He is currently in the concussion protocol, making him less likely to play this week. Second time this year he is in the concussion protocol.
Chris Olave was the top receiver with 119 yards on 5 catches from 8 targets (27.6% target share). Nearly 150 air yards.
A.T. Perry caught a 30-yard pass (3 targets). 58 air yards. 3rd in the WR routes run.
Lynn Bowden Jr. dominated the snaps played in this game seeing a 72% snap share. He also finished second in routes run behind Olave. Alas, just one target.
Juwan Johnson goose-egged on 3 targets. Zero in the second half. Dead last in receiving EPA in Week 13. He ran a route on 61% of dropbacks and played 57% of the snaps, a decline from last week. Losing Rashid Shaheed wasn’t enough to boost Johnson’s involvement in the offense. No need to hold onto him.
To add insult to injury, Jimmy Graham caught the TD after barely playing in the game. Woof.
The Panthers, New York Giants, LA Rams and Tampa Bay round out the fantasy playoffs. Stash the Saints’ DST if they got dropped this past weekend.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Add Pat Freiermuth, Buy Diontae Johnson, Jaylen Warren, Sell/Hold Najee Harris, Sell George Pickens
Weird game overall with the game getting delayed twice after halftime due to weather.
Kenny Pickett didn’t play in the second half after getting hurt on a goal-line scramble.
Najee Harris Led the ground attack with 63 yards on 16 carries, averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Earned 5 carries inside the 20-yard line.
Jaylen Warren: Provided significant support with 59 yards on 9 carries, showcasing an impressive 6.6 yards per attempt. He had one red-zone carry.
Najee Harris led with 11 carries to Jaylen Warren’s 5 in the first half.
Also lead with a 59% snap share to Warren’s 43%, despite the massive negative game script. Harris nearly doubled the routes of Warren – very unusual usage for the two RBs.
Both guys can be started but as low-end RB2s.
George Pickens: Emerged as a key target, hauling in 86 yards on 4 receptions from 5 targets (18.5% target share), including a long of 38 yards. Most receiving production came with Pickett in the game. 79 air yards.
Diontae Johnson: Scored a touchdown from Trubisky and contributed 33 yards on 4 receptions (19% target share).
Pat Freiermuth caught 3 passes for 29 yards. Was targeted twice in the red zone but did not score. 19% target share. His routes are still low – 64% route participation, 59% snap share – as he slowly comes back from his injury. Must imagine he gets his full-time role sooner rather than later.
In terms of the targets with Trubisky under center…
- Freiermuth 3
- Robinson 3
- Johnson 3
- Harris 3
- Heyward 2
- Pickens 1
- Warren 1
- Austin 1
This is super key to note because the bad splits between Pickens and Trubisky date back to last season and at times this season.
Earlier this season,
With Trubisky last season, Diontae Johnson posted much better numbers. Would expect him to be Steelers WR1 in a great matchup versus New England in Week 14.
Johnson’s targets with Trubisky games in 2022: 12, 10, 11, 8, 10.
Pickens in those same games: 3, 2, 7, 3, 5
The Steelers’ upcoming schedule: Patriots (TNF), Colts, Bengals and Seahawks.
Arizona Cardinals
Drop Greg Dortch, Hold Marquise Brown, Stash Michael Wilson, Hold/Sell James Conner
James Conner dominated the ground game with 105 yards on 25 carries, averaging 4.2 yards per carry and scoring 2 touchdowns. Big homecoming game for Conner (2 targets) with him getting fed in the red zone with 8 carries. 76% snap share.
Broke in the second half, as in the first half Conner was stuck on 10 carries for 17 yards.
RB2 Michael Carter contributed efficiently with 25 yards on 4 carries, showcasing an impressive 6.3 yards per attempt. Appears like the new handcuff to Conner. Worth noting that Emeri Demercado was injured during the game.
Trey McBride emerged as Murray’s top target, receiving 9 targets (39% target share) and making 8 catches for 89 yards and a touchdown. 6-67-1 on 7 targets in the first half. Also saw 2 red-zone targets.
Marquise Brown left the game with a heel injury. Rondale Moore had a 33-yard TD nullified due to a penalty.
Nobody else saw more than 3 targets (Brown/Greg Dortch). Dortch led in routes run but can be dropped. However, you have to hold Hollywood Brown with the easy schedule rest of the season for WRs.
After the bye week, the Cardinals face SF, CHI and PHI.
But it’s a bottom-2 ROS for RBs per the FantasyPros SOS tool. Can’t help but think this last week might be the peak for Conner’s fantasy production.
Carolina Panthers
Sell Chuba Hubbard, Jonathan Mingo, Drop Adam Thielen
Chuba Hubbard out-carried Miles Sanders 11 to 5 in the first half. Jonathan Mingo was the most targeted receiver (6) but had just 3 catches for 16 yards.
Mingo was the top target through four quarters with 10 targets (38.5% target share), making 6 receptions for 69 yards. His longest reception was 31 yards. Saw nearly 100 air yards. But the rookie has had games like this before all season. Don’t fall for it. He always runs all the routes and gets peppered with targets. He caught a 31-yard pass that boosted his entire outing. The Saints play man coverage at a top-5 rate in the NFL. Mingo is PFF’s second-lowest graded WR against man coverage this season.
Hubbard led the Panthers’ ground attack overall with a strong performance, rushing for 104 yards on 25 carries (averaging 4.2 yards per carry) and scoring two touchdowns on 5 red-zone carries. His longest run was 17 yards. Zero targets with a 65% snap share.
Miles Sanders contributed 23 yards on 8 carries, averaging 2.9 yards per attempt with a long of 8 yards. We hit the UNDER on the carries and yards. YLTSI. He played 32% of the snaps while splitting routes 50/50 with Hubbard.
Raheem Blackshear: Added a single carry for 6 yards.
D.J. Chark: Caught 3 of 4 targets for 56 yards, with a long of 30 yards, showing significant yardage gains per catch (15% target share). He was hyper-targeted as he only ran 14 routes on a 40% snap share. He played fewer snaps than Mike Strachan. Imagine that won’t be the case moving forward.
Adam Thielen: Managed 25 yards from 3 receptions on 6 targets (23% target share). Drop him. 3 of 4 games with OC Thomas Brown calling the plays he has done nothing.
Stephen Sullivan: Added a single reception for 16 yards (2 targets). He played the most snaps among Panthers tight ends.
Ian Thomas and Miles Sanders both contributed with one catch each for 6 yards.
New Orleans is next followed by Atlanta and Green Bay.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Add Cade Otton, Sell Chris Godwin
Rachaad White: Led the ground game with 84 yards on 20 carries, averaging 4.2 yards per attempt and scoring a touchdown. His longest run was 30 yards. Contributed in the passing game as well, with 22 yards on 3 catches (5 targets).
Chris Godwin had 1 target in the first half, entering the game banged up. 3 targets and zero catches. Played 84% of the snaps and led the team in routes run.
But he scored a rushing TD on a 19-yard rush late to salvage his fantasy outing.
WR3 Trey Palmer had 5 first-half targets, second to only Mike Evans (6). Finished with just 2 catches for 12 yards.
Evans was the star receiver with a standout performance, catching 7 of 12 targets (44% target share) for 162 yards and a touchdown. His longest reception was an impressive 75-yard catch. 70% air yards share.
The Falcons are the next for Tampa Bay followed by the Packers and Jaguars.
Tight end Cade Otton had a target taken away due to an OPI penalty. So he finished with two targets in a bad matchup. He still played 98% of the snaps and ran a route on 30 of 32 Baker Mayfield dropbacks. Add him if he gets dripped and start him versus the Falcons’ defense which is horrible versus tight ends. $3,100 on DraftKings in Week 14. Cheapest tight end money can buy.
Philadelphia Eagles
Buy A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Sell D’Andre Swift, Add Kenneth Gainwell
D’Andre Swift carried the ball just 6 times for 13 yards, averaging 2.2 yards per attempt with a long of 4 yards. Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott: Each had minimal gains with 2 and 1 attempts, respectively. Swift took a big hit at the end of the game, so monitor his status heading up to next week.
Gainwell contributed with 5 receptions for 42 yards on 6 targets. Scott had a single catch for 27 yards. Swift was Targeted 6 times and managed only 7 yards on 2 receptions.
Gainwell is the handcuff to Swift and showed in this game that he is the guy they like to lean on when facing negative game script. Ran 32 routes to Swift’s 19. Out-snapped Swift, 54% versus 42%.
Jalen Hurts Completed 26 of 45 pass attempts for 298 yards, was sacked 3 times for a loss of 27 yards, and threw 1 touchdown. Marcus Mariota: Added 6 yards on 2 carries after coming in briefly for Jalen Hurts.
A.J. Brown emerged as the primary target with 13 targets (30.9% target share), catching 8 passes for 114 yards. His longest reception was 38 yards. He also saw 5 red-zone targets but did not score.
DeVonta Smith: Made a significant impact with 9 receptions on 11 targets (26% target share) for 96 yards and scoring 1 touchdown. 2 red-zone targets. He continues to feast without Dallas Goedert in the lineup.
Quez Watkins: Added 28 yards on 3 receptions from 4 targets. He reclaimed the WR duties over the likes of Olamide Zaccheaus and Julio Jones, playing 64% of the snaps.
Albert Okwuegbunam: Targeted once but did not record a catch. Leader in tight end routes run. Dallas Goedert should return soon.
Philly has Dallas next week. Then it’s the Seahawks, Giants and Cardinals.
San Francisco 49ers
Hold Deebo Samuel, Buy Brandon Aiyuk, Hold George Kittle
Christian McCaffrey dominated the game with 17 carries for 93 yards, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and scoring 1 touchdown. Deebo Samuel Showed his versatility with 22 yards and 1 touchdown on just 3 carries. Samuel starred in the receiving game as well, catching all 4 of his targets for 116 yards and 2 touchdowns, including a long of 48 yards.
CMC was also involved in the passing game, adding 40 yards on 3 receptions.
Elijah Mitchell contributed minimally 13 yards on 3 carries.
Brock Purdy completed 19 of 27 passes for a stunning 314 yards and 4 touchdowns. His passing yards prop is set at 257.5 passing yards on Prizepicks. He has gone over this mark in 5 of his last 6 games, the one UNDER coming against the Seahawks.
George Kittle made significant contributions with 68 yards on 4 receptions from 6 targets (24% target share).
Brandon Aiyuk had just 46 yards and 1 touchdown on 5 receptions from 7 targets (28% target share, 32% air yards share).
The Big 3 49ers pass-catchers all ran a route on 30 of 31 Brock Purdy dropbacks.
I’ve been pounding the table for Aiyuk the last two weeks, and he’s overdue for a big yardage game. Even though he finished below 60 receiving yards last week, I’d go right back to the over at 63.5 receiving yards on Prizepicks. But the best number is tied to Samuel. His receiving yards projection is set at 51.5 yards. He has gone over that number in three straight games and in 7 of 9 healthy games played this season.
Jauan Jennings chipped in 44 yards and a touchdown on 3 receptions from 4 targets.
The 49ers play the Seahawks, Cardinals, Ravens and Commanders to close out the season. No.1 schedule for QBs per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
Cleveland Browns
Add Elijah Moore, Cedric Tillman, Sell Jerome Ford/Kareem Hunt
Kareem Hunt led the Browns with 12 carries for 48 yards, averaging 4.0 yards per attempt. His longest run was 7 yards.
Pierre Strong Jr. added a significant burst with 2 carries for 20 yards, a notable 10.0-yard average per carry, and a long run of 13 yards.
Jerome Ford contributed just 9 carries for 19 yards, averaging a mid 2.1 yards per carry with the longest run of 10 yards. Ford was also involved in the passing game, catching all 3 of his targets for 33 yards and scoring 1 touchdown. He had the lone red-zone carry.
Hunt out-carried Ford 7 to 5 in the first half, but Ford played the most snaps at 51% to Hunt’s 35%.
Ford’s the starter, but it’s still an RB committee. Will be tough to overcome given the QB concerns and brutal RB matchups coming up. The pass-game work gives Ford a floor, but the ceiling is tough to get behind.
Joe Flacco, taking the reins as quarterback, completed 23 out of 44 pass attempts for 254 yards. He threw 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, with a long pass of 42 yards.
Elijah Moore was the top receiver, targeted 12 times (29% target share) and making 4 receptions for 83 yards. His longest reception was an impressive 42 yards. By far Flacco’s favorite target. 255 air yards. Flacco was AIRING it out to Moore. 50% air yards share. Joe Flacco came of the cough FIRING. In Week 13, he tossed for 543 air yards…
But note that these we a lot of prayer yards. Among WRs with the worst EPAs in Week 13, Moore and Cedric Tillman ranked 3rd and 4th lowest, respectively.
Moore is $4,500 on DraftKings in Week 14.
Harrison Bryant showcased reliable hands with 5 catches on 5 targets for 49 yards, scoring 1 touchdown.
Amari Cooper had 3 receptions for 34 yards off 5 targets (all in the first half). But he left the game with a concussion.
Other contributors included Cedric Tillman (2 receptions, 20 yards, targets) and David Njoku (2 receptions, 17 yards, 6 targets). Tillman was another favorite downfield target, amassing 118 air yards. He led all WRs in snaps (93%) and routes run.
David Njoku played 83% of the snaps and saw 6 targets. But he only caught 2 passes for 17 yards with Flacco. Njoku managers will want DTR back at QB next week versus the Jaguars.
The Browns’ Remaining Schedule: JAC, CHI, HOU and NYJ
Los Angeles Rams
Buy Kyren Williams, Sell Cooper Kupp, Add Rams DST
Kyren Williams headlined the Rams’ ground game with 21 carries for 88 yards, averaging 4.2 yards per carry, and scored 1 touchdown. His longest run was 18 yards. Williams was also involved in the passing game, catching 3 passes for 24 yards. Dominated the goal-line work with 9 red-zone opportunities. 8 carries and 1 target.
Royce Freeman had 1 carry. Williams played 94% of the snaps. Freeman: 6%.
Puka Nacua contributed significantly with 2 carries for 34 yards, including a long of 31 yards.
Nacua also emerged as a leading receiver with 105 yards and 1 touchdown on 4 receptions from 7 targets (21% target share). Saw over 100 air yards. And he did that on just a 62% snap share and 19 routes run as he had to be checked in the locker room for an injury.
Demarcus Robinson provided support with 55 yards and 1 touchdown on 4 receptions from 5 targets.
Cooper Kupp was a consistent target, as he caught 6 passes for 39 yards and 1 touchdown from a team-high 8 targets. Targets, routes and snaps are all there, but the elite production is non-existent with Kupp in 2023.
Tyler Higbee added 35 yards on 2 receptions from 4 targets.
Demarcus Robinson played ahead of Tutu Atwell for the second straight week. Was still the clear-cut WR4 in both snaps and routes behind Demarcus Robinson. Atwell is much more boom-or-bust as he was used exclusively as a deep threat for the second straight week.
The Rams play Baltimore, Washington, the Saints and the Giants in their next four games.
Leaning toward the under on Matthew Stafford’s 219.5 passing yards prop on Prizepicks. He was on a 6-game streak of passing yards unders until last week at home when Nacua ripped off a massive catch-and-run. Stafford will face a Ravens secondary that has allowed just 203 passing yards per game to opposing QBs this season. Only one QB they have faced since Week 7 has gone over this number.
Green Bay Packers
Add Jayden Reed, Hold Christian Watson, Stash GB DST, Add Tucker Kraft, Hold A.J. Dillon
AJ Dillon led the ground attack with 18 carries for 73 yards, averaging 4.1 yards per attempt. His longest run was 10 yards. Dillon was on the field for 62% of the snaps (1 target).
Patrick Taylor added a significant burst with 2 carries for 29 yards, showing an impressive average of 14.5 yards per carry.
Christian Watson and Jordan Love contributed with 15 and 10 yards respectively on limited carries.
However, on a rushing attempt late in the fourth quarter, Christian Watson pulled up limp grabbing his hamstring.
Jordan Love efficiently managed the passing game, completing 25 out of 36 attempts for 267 yards and 3 touchdowns, with no interceptions.
Romeo Doubs and Watson were the primary receiving threats. Doubs caught 4 passes on 5 targets for 72 yards, while Watson secured 7 receptions for 71 yards on 9 targets (26% target share) and scored 2 touchdowns in the red zone.
Doubs (81%) and Watson (73%) were heavily involved in the offensive plays. Doubs ran the most routes (32 routes run).
Dontayvion Wicks (39% snap share) and Tucker Kraft (95% snap share) also made notable contributions, combining for 80 yards on 6 receptions. Wicks earned 4 targets while Kraft had 6 targets (17% target share) playing nearly every single snap on offense (3 for 37). Love missed Kraft on a few different throws. Twice in the red zone.
Jayden Reed played just 47% of the snaps. Caught 4 balls for 16 yards on 5 targets (14% target share).
The Giants, Buccaneers, Panthers, and Vikings are next for the GB Packers. Weeks 15-17 are the Buccaneers, Panthers and Minnesota. Note the easy schedule. Stash the DST before they play the Giants and the talented crop of playmakers at Love’s disposal. He has been surging and I think he closes out the season on a strong statistical output.
Kansas City Chiefs
Hold Rashee Rice, Buy Isiah Pacheco, Add Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Isiah Pacheco led the rushing attack with 18 carries for 110 yards, averaging 6.1 yards per carry, and scoring 1 touchdown. He participated in 70% of the offensive snaps. Pacheco was also ejected toward the end of the game after throwing a punch.
As always, buy Pacheco. No. 1 SOS for RBs. Next 4 Weeks: BUF, NE, LV and CIN in the fantasy football championships.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire had just 2 carries and 2 targets.
Travis Kelce had 4 receptions on 5 targets for 81 yards, averaging 20.3 yards per catch. Kelce was involved in 88% of the offensive plays.
Rashee Rice was targeted a team-high 9 times (30% target share) and made 8 catches for 64 yards. He was on the field for 69% of the snaps and lead all the WRs in routes run. Added 2 red-zone targets.
Skyy Moore had significant playtime with 66% snap participation respectively. Played ahead of MVS (49% snap share).
Kadarius Toney only played 12 snaps (18%).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (5 targets, 133 air yards) and Isiah Pacheco (4 targets) contributed with 25 and 13 yards respectively. Pacheco continues to see boosted work around the goal line (6 red-zone carries) and as a receiver as long as Jerick McKinnon is sidelined with a groin injury.
Justin Watson played 60% of the snaps and finished second in routes run. 1 target.
Next 4 Weeks: BUF, NE, LV and CIN.
Cincinnati Bengals
Hold Joe Mixon, Buy Ja’Marr Chase, Add Chase Brown
Joe Mixon, their primary ball carrier, racked up 68 yards over 19 carries, punching in two touchdowns. He was complemented by rookie Chase Brown, who added a sprightly 61 yards on just nine attempts, showcasing impressive agility and burst. It was by far the most work any non-Mixon Bengals RB has seen all season and his efficiency warrants more touches in the future. Mixons still played 71% of the snaps to Brown’s 15%, but that gap could narrow in future weeks. And Brown only ate into Mixon’s rushing share. The Bengals RB1 still dominated through the air, seizing 6 catches for 49 yards on 7 targets (19% target share). Brown ran zero routes.
Quarterback Jake Browning took center stage in the passing game, completing an efficient 32 of 37 passes for a whopping 354 yards. He also demonstrated his dual-threat capability with 22 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground. Browning’s favorite target was undoubtedly Ja’Marr Chase, who hauled in 11 receptions for 149 yards and a touchdown, proving once again to be a dynamic and unstoppable force on the field. 89 of his yards came after the catch. 32% target share and 45% air yards share.
Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins also played crucial roles in the receiving corps. Boyd, despite an unsuccessful passing attempt, made meaningful contributions with five receptions. 7 TAR, 5 REC, 37 YDS. 55 snaps (75%). 19% target share.
Higgins, though targeted only thrice, made each opportunity count with three catches. 3 TAR, 3 REC, 36 YDS, 57 snaps (78%). Second in routes run among Bengals pass catchers.
Tight end Tanner Hudson was targeted four times, catching all four passes for a total of 35 yards. His 100% catch rate on his targets indicates his reliable hands and good understanding of the offense. He doesn’t play a ton of snaps (16%) but he continues to earn targets whenever he runs a route on the field.
Indianapolis and Minnesota are next followed by Pittsburgh again and the Chiefs in the fantasy football championships.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Buy Travis Etienne, Sell Calvin Ridley, Add Zay Jones
The team’s rushing attack was led by Travis Etienne, who carried the ball 11 times for 45 yards, averaging 4.1 yards per carry and scoring the first touchdown of the game. ETN also caught all four of his targets for 34 yards while playing 62% of the snaps. Didn’t seem overly impacted from his injury from last week.
D’Ernest Johnson caught one pass and had just five carries for 4 yards. 36$ snap share. Still a high-end handcuff worth holding onto.
Trevor Lawrence, in the quarterback role, had a strong passing game, completing 22 out of 29 attempts for 258 yards and two touchdowns, achieving an impressive passer rating of 125.4. His backup, C.J. Beathard, also played efficiently, completing 9 of 10 attempts for 63 yards. Beathard was forced in after Lawrence left the game late with an ankle injury.
The receiving corps was led by tight end Evan Engram, who had nine receptions for 82 yards and a touchdown (9 targets, 23% target share). He scored his first TD of the season. The anytime TD call came through!
Zay Jones also had a significant impact with five receptions for 78 yards (8 targets, 21%), while Parker Washington added 61 yards and a touchdown on six catches (6 targets). Jones also saw 160 air yards (36% air yards share).
Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk made contributions as well, adding to the Jaguars’ aerial attack. Kirk left the game after making a big catch in the first quarter with a groin injury. He did not return. Ridley caught 4 balls for 28 yards on 8 targets (21%) despite seeing 158 air yards. He had a drop on a deep pass from Lawrence in the first half. He almost made up for it with a great catch in OT inside the 5-yard line but the catch came back on a holding penalty. Woof.
Washington’s playing time increased the most as a result of the Kirk injury. Ran a route on 74% of the dropbacks on a 59% snap share.
The Browns, Ravens and Buccaneers over the next 3 weeks for Jacksonville. Rough schedule for the passing game that could be without Trevor Lawrence. No. 32 per the FantasyPros SOS tool for fantasy QBs. Also bottom-3 schedule for WRs. Sell high on some of these Jaguars WRs.
Teams coming off Week 13 bye weeks
Baltimore Ravens
Hold/Buy Keaton Mitchell, Sell Gus Edwards, Drop Justice Hill, Buy Zay Flower, Add/Hold Isaiah Likely, Odell Beckham Jr., Rashod Bateman
Keaton Mitchell led the running backs in snap percentage at 46% while also totaling 64 rushing yards on just 9 carries in Week 12. He led the backfield in first-half carries (5).
The rookie also caught both of his targets for 25 yards while leading the backfield in routes run. 11 touches for 89 yards. Led the Ravens backfield in both touches and snaps, while also drawing the start in the Sunday Night Football contest. His snaps and touches continue to grow, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that continues after the Week 13 bye week.
Gus Edwards (27% snap percentage) carried the ball 8 times for a total of 26 yards, averaging 3.3 yards per carry. His involvement was limited (only 2 carries in the first half) reflected by his low snap percentage (1 target). Justice Hill also out-snapped the TD-dependent Gus Bus (28%). Edwards didn’t score, and therefore was a bust in Week 12.
Hill tallied 5 carries for 31 yards (1 target), 3 of which were in the red zone.
Zay Flowers was targeted 8 times (team-high 27% target share) and made 5 catches, totaling 25 receiving yards. He played 94% of the snaps and scored twice, once as a rusher on a 37-yard rush and another as a receiver.
Rashod Bateman – 80% snap share – was involved significantly in playing time but had a relatively modest output with 21 receiving yards on 2 catches (5 targets, 17%).
Odell Beckham Jr.’s 32% snap percentage suggests he played a more limited role in this particular game. But he was highly involved when on the field, as he was targeted 5 times and made 3 catches for 34 yards. He also was the team’s leader in air yards (30%, 56 air yards).
Nelson Agholor played more snaps (42%).
Isaiah Likely played 73% of the snaps and led the team with 40 receiving yards, indicating his growing role in the offense. The second-year tight end caught 4 of his 6 targets (20% target share). All his targets came in the first half (including an additional one nullified by a penalty). Likely also finished second on the team in routes run, running a route on 83% of dropbacks. He’s mispriced on DraftKings at $3,500.
Charlie Kolar chipped in the remaining tight end snaps, with a 27% snap share.
The Ravens are coming off a bye in Week 13, then it’s the Rams, Jaguars, 49ers, and Dolphins to close out the season. No. 1 most difficult schedule for fantasy RBs…
It’s a top-end schedule for WRs, so add Ravens WRs if they got dropped over the bye week.
Still, I lean toward the under on Lamar Jackson’s 224.5 passing yards for Week 14. It’s slightly inflated considering he has gone over it just once in his last five games. Projections in the Prizepicks Draft Prop Cheat Sheet have him swiftly under this mark at 210 yards
Can’t also overlook the loss of Mark Andrews and how that negatively impacts Jackson’s passing yards projections. The Rams defense is allowing just 220 passing yards per game.
I might even pair the Jackson LESS than passing yards with Justin Tucker with MORE than 1.5 field goals. The Rams rank 3rd in field goal attempts faced this season. Tucker has converted 2-plus kicks in three of the last four games.
Buffalo Bills
Add Khalil Shakir, Sell James Cook, Gabe Davis
Josh Allen led the Bills on the ground, rushing for 81 yards on 9 carries, averaging an impressive 9.0 yards per attempt, and scoring 2 touchdowns in Week 12. His longest run was 19 yards.
James Cook contributed significantly, carrying the ball 16 times for 43 yards. Earned 7 targets for 14% target share. He caught 6 balls for 57 yards with 2 red-zone targets.
Latavius Murray and Ty Johnson also added to the Bills’ ground game. Murray had 30 yards on 9 carries, while Johnson rushed for 19 yards on 6 attempts. Murray also had 5 targets while leading the backfield in routes run and snaps played (44%) over Cook (43%).
Don’t overlook Johnson’s contributions the last few weeks…as half of his carries came in the red zone.
Gabriel Davis emerged as Allen’s top target, making 6 receptions on 12 targets (24% target share) for 105 yards and a touchdown. Totaled 185 air yards, and came close to another TD score in OT.
Rinse and repeat folks. Sell high after the big Gabe Davis games.
Stefon Diggs also had a notable performance with 6 receptions for 74 yards and a touchdown (22% target share, 11 targets).
Khalil Shakir: 5 targets for 3 catches and 47 yards. 80% snap share. Add him if he got dropped on waivers.
Dalton Kincaid: 6 targets for 38 yards and 5 receptions. Solid despite a bit of a downward trend in usage. It’s possible the Kincaid role takes a hit when Dawson Knox returns from IR post-bye.
It’s also no coincidence that a big game from Davis was accompanied by down games from Shakir/Kincaid.
The Bills are coming of their Bye Week, then it’s the Chiefs, Cowboys and Chargers.
Chicago Bears
Add Roschon Johnson, Sell Khalil Herbert, Buy D.J. Moore
Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert supported with 35 and 24 yards, respectively back in Week 12. But the rookie dominated the touches and snaps over Herbert with D’Onta Foreman inactive. Johnson played 74% of the snaps to Herbert’s 21% snap share as he ran 3x of the routes versus the veteran. Johnson out-touched Herbert 15 to 8 with 10 carries and 5 catches. Herbert had just 6 carries all night. After having 3 in the first half the team turned to a heavy dosage of Johnson in the second half, feeding him 8 carries. Johnson also fumbled. But it was recovered by the Bears in the fourth quarter. He also saw the lone RB touch (catch for 1 yard) in the red zone.
Recommended selling Herbert two weeks back and that looks like it was the sharp move based on the Bears RB deployment last Monday night. He was the RB2 behind RJ. Although, it’s just not smart to invest too heavily in this backfield long-term with Foreman likely coming back after the bye week. After the Week 13 bye week, it’s the Lions (again), Browns, Cardinals and Falcons.
D.J. Moore emerged as a key receiver versus the Vikings, securing 11 catches for 114 yards (13 targets, 40% target share). He continues to be a fantasy WR1 with a healthy Justin Fields at QB.
Additional receiving contributions came from Cole Kmet (43 yards on 7 receptions on 7 targets, 21% target share) and Roschon Johnson (40 yards on 5 receptions on 5 targets, 16% target share).
Las Vegas Raiders
Sell Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Drop Michael Mayer, Sell Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs led the rushing attack in Week 12 with 20 carries for 110 yards and a touchdown, highlighted by a long run of 63 yards. He averaged an impressive 5.5 yards per carry and totaled 6 targets, catching 4 for 15 yards (19% target share).
Jakobi Meyers was a key target with 7 targets (22% target share) making 6 receptions for 79 yards and scoring a touchdown. His longest reception was 33 yards.
Davante Adams also received 7 targets, converting them into 5 catches for 73 yards (22% target share).
With a rookie QB and another strong target earner in the Raiders offense, the days of Adams being a bonafide fantasy WR1 are over in 2023 at least. He and Meyers have two great remaining matchups on the schedule, LAC/IND, but it clumped in with two lesser spots against the Vikings and Chiefs (at Arrowhead).
Hunter Renfrow and Michael Mayer each saw 4 targets. Renfrow played ahead of rookie Tre Tucker.
They face the Vikings out of their bye week, then it’s the Chargers, Chiefs and Colts.
And it’s the tough matchup against the Vikings that I LOVE on Prizepicks in Week 14. Minnesota has allowed just ONE running back to rush for 70-plus yards against them this season. And that happened back in Week 2…
Take the easy under on Jacobs’ rushing yardage prop set at 72.5 rushing yards.
Minnesota Vikings
Hold Ty Chandler, Sell Jordan Addison, Buy Alexander Mattison
The Vikings’ ground game was led by Alexander Mattison, who carried the ball 10 times for 52 yards, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. He played 56% of the snaps. Ty Chandler was limited to just 33% of the snaps. He carried the ball 4 times for 8 yards while seeing 2 targets. Mattison caught both of his targets for 12 yards. Shockingly, C.J. Ham led the backfield with 2 catches on 3 targets.
But it’s worth noting that Chandler LED the backfield in carries in the first half (3 vs. 2). The backfield was essentially the same split as the week prior, but this week Mattison had the more favorable yardage totals. Also ran the most routes.
The team’s obsession with the plodding Mattison is beyond me. But I still want to recognize the easy schedule remaining after the bye week.
The Raiders and Bengals over the next two matchups followed by the Lions and Packers.
Through the air, Josh Dobbs completed 22 out of 32 passes for 185 yards but struggled with accuracy, throwing 4 interceptions. His longest pass was 28 yards. He is also no lock to be starting QB after his Monday night meltdown post the bye week.
T.J. Hockenson was his top target, catching 5 passes for 50 yards and the only touchdown of Monday Night Football (20% target share).
Minimal receiving contributions also came from Brandon Powell (45 yards on 3 receptions on 3 targets) and Jordan Addison (39 yards on 6 receptions on a team-high 10 targets, 33% target share). 163 air yards converted into little actual production.
Addison’s targets are going to decrease with Justin Jefferson returning, and he’s been underwhelming thus far in all the games he has played thus far with Dobbs. No more than 11 PPR points in four starts with Dobbs despite 6-plus targets in all contests.
New York Giants
Add Jaylin Hyatt, Sell Saquon Barkley, Add Darren Waller
Saquon Barkley led the ground game with 12 carries, accumulating 46 yards at an average of 3.8 yards per carry, and his longest run was 19 yards (81% snap share). Was non-existent in the second half as a rusher. The Patriots are run defense to avoid.
Green Bay is a good matchup for Barkley after the bye week, but the Saints/Eagles in the fantasy football playoffs is concerning.
Rookie Jaylin Hyatt was a standout receiver, catching 5 of his 6 targeted passes (25% target share) for 109 yards, featuring a long catch of 41 yards. Continued to make big plays downfield (125 air yards). 64% air yards share. Add him off waivers. The Giants have all the incentives to feature their rookie in their long-term plans. Favorable fantasy WR schedule rest of the season as well.
Hyatt led the Giants with 63 yards (4 targets) in the first half back in Week 12. 60% snap share while running a route on 76% of dropbacks.
Wan’Dale Robinson had 4 receptions on 5 targets (21% target share) for 26 yards, with a long of 11 yards. He led the Giants in routes run.
Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins contributed with 2 and 1 catches respectively for a combined 28 yards. Hodgins scored and Slayton played despite being doubtful for the game. He only played 54% of the snaps.
After the Week 13 bye week, it’s Green Bay, New Orleans and Philadelphia.
If Darren Waller returns off IR, he could be a force. No. 1 schedule for tight ends rest of the season. Add him if he was dropped after getting hut.
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