It’s now or never in fantasy football! Every week matters now and making the wrong choice could end your season swiftly.

These are the riskiest and safest starts ahead of Week 14.

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Riskiest & Safest Starts for Week 14

Riskiest

Austin Ekeler vs. Denver Broncos

After three straight performances where Austin Ekeler has finished as the RB31 overall, you might be forgiven for considering benching him in redraft leagues. After all, now is not the time to be starting underperforming stars. The ray of light for Ekeler managers is that he faces a Broncos defense allowing a league-high 29.3 points to the running back position, along with the fifth-most running back receptions per game (5.6). One of the most alarming parts of Ekeler’s slide is the fact that he didn’t get more than three targets in two of his last three games. If Ekeler isn’t getting targets and is feeling a career’s worth of wear and tear in the ground game, is he startable, even in a good matchup?

Nico Collins vs. New York Jets

If you’ve been a Nico Collins truther, then this season has to be everything you hoped for. Without wanting to see any player get injured, when Tank Dell went down with a fractured fibula on Sunday, it opened up even more opportunities for Collins down the stretch. The Texans are playing the Jets in Week 14, a team that is allowing a league-low 22.4 points per game to wide receivers, five fewer than any other defense. Only Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Khalil Shakir have scored over 15 points versus the Jets since Week 6. Most of the time, we can count on our studs performing no matter the matchup, but this is a very tricky matchup.

Just in case people forgot how crazy of an athlete Nico Collins is. Dude can absolutely fly and jump for a big fella. pic.twitter.com/r5UaMWKuiw

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) December 5, 2023

Matthew Stafford vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Rams have turned their season around and are now on the fringes of a playoff spot in an underperforming NFC. However, they now face a stiff contest against a Ravens team chasing the number one seed in the AFC. The Ravens allow a league-low 12.8 points per game to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed no more than one passing touchdown per game in their last six straight games. The only quarterback to finish as a top-twelve option against the Ravens this year was Josh Dobbs. Stafford is riding high with back-to-back top-eight finishes, but this might not be the week for you to start him if you have another option.

Derrick Henry vs. Miami Dolphins

As is customary at this time of year, Derrick Henry has peaked in form and had his first consecutive top-ten performances all season. After clearing concussion protocol, it might feel like plugging Henry in this week is an easier choice than ever, but there are reasons to pause. First, Henry’s performances have come in neutral game scripts against the Colts and Panthers, who failed to separate from the Titans. In games where the Titans have chased the score, Tyjae Spears has seen more opportunities and eaten into Henry’s workload. The Dolphins also allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and the fourth-fewest receptions to running backs.

Safest

Sam LaPorta vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears have struggled against the tight end position all season long, allowing seven different top-twelve finishes. They give up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position, along with the third-most touchdowns per game and the second-highest catch rate. LaPorta has been a top-twelve option in eight of his twelve appearances this year, as well as a top-three option in the last two weeks.

Sam LaPorta is currently…

posting the HIGHEST Target Share EVER for a Rookie Tight End

on an offense that is Top 12 in Pass Attempts and Passing Touchdowns

and has the HIGHEST PPG by a Rookie Tight End EVER because of it

DYNASTY TE1 pic.twitter.com/22TJk29GnU

— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) December 5, 2023

Zack Moss vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Titans always had the potential to be a tricky spot for Zack Moss to get back to being a fantasy star, despite him having success against them earlier in the season. Thankfully for Moss, he has a nice get-right spot in Week 14 against a Bengals defense that has struggled against the run all year, allowing the third-highest yards per carry to running backs (4.6), along with the tenth-most running back rushing yards (97) and ninth-most touchdowns (0.8).

Courtland Sutton vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Cleveland Browns held Courtland Sutton relatively in check in Week 12, limiting his fantasy output to a WR45 finish. But Sutton got back on track this past week against the Texans with his fourth top-seventeen finish in his last five games. The Chargers have been an excellent matchup for wide receivers all season, allowing the third-most fantasy points and the fourth-most receiving yards per game. In recent weeks, they have allowed both Zay Flowers and Amon-Ra St. Brown to finish as top-six options in games against them.

Courtland Sutton has found the route tree that best fits Russ Wilson's skill set.

1. Run straight
2. Throw it high/far
3. ?
4. ??
5. Profit pic.twitter.com/IBqB1i0vYk

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 4, 2023

Rashee Rice vs. Buffalo Bills

Since Week 7, Rashee Rice is second only to Travis Kelce in target share among Chiefs pass-catchers and his 57.6 yards per game is over 30 yards more than any other non-Kelce player. Rice has been a top 25 PPR wide receiver in that spell, and now faces a Bills secondary that has allowed six different wide receivers to score 14 or more points since Week 7. Rice has established himself not only as the top wide receiver on the Chiefs, but also as the team’s second-best touchdown threat. Until the Chiefs add another competent wide receiver, we can start Rice as often as necessary.

Deebo Samuel vs. Seattle Seahawks

It was only Week 12 when Deebo Samuel totaled 94 yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks, and now he gets a chance to run it back all over again. The Seahawks have allowed four different wide receivers to score 16 or more points since Week 11. Their zone-based defense plays into Samuel’s strengths at a time when he’s running hot, with consecutive games inside the top-ten wide receivers. The Seahawks are fading when it matters most, while the Niners and Samuel are peaking at the perfect time.

Reminder:

Deebo Samuel has dominated the Seahawks throughout his career.

Total yards:

94
165
97
157
135
112

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) December 5, 2023