This is my final “smash starts” article of the season. This has been a new experience for me, and I’ve definitely learned some lessons. The most important thing I learned is to never worry about the week prior. There are going to be hits and misses every week, but it’s critical to keep chugging along. We’re happy to carry over some momentum into the final week of the year, getting some great performances from Aaron Jones, D’Andre Swift, DK Metcalf, Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram. That has me excited to talk about this final week, so let’s get into it!
The premise behind this article is simple: Identifying fantasy football smash plays that are on the fringe of your starting lineup. We will rarely recommend a top-10 player at any position, but we want to help you fill those critical flex spots!
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Smash Starts for Week 17
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray (ARI) at PHI
It was a bit surprising to see Murray make a return to action this late into the season, but he’s been solid since coming off injured reserve. Despite having no legitimate wide receivers, Kyler has scored at least 19 fantasy points in five of his six starts. That’s what happens when you’re one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the NFL, with Murray being the top fantasy quarterback at times in the past. We believe he can revive that top-tier form against Philly, surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing signal-callers. In his two career matchups with the Eagles, Murray is averaging over 31 fantasy points per game.
Editor’s Note: Monitor Murray’s status, as he’s dealing with an illness that kept him out of practice as of Thursday.
Running Backs
Travis Etienne (JAX) vs. CAR
Etienne hasn’t gotten anything going the past two weeks, but he can’t be sitting on your benches in championship week. This guy was a top-5 running back before that slump, scoring at least 15 fantasy points in eight of his first 13 games. He also had a four-week stretch in which he was the top-scoring player in fantasy, scoring at least 21 fantasy points in all of those. We expect one of those upside games against Carolina, surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. In addition, Jacksonville is a 7.5-point home favorite, which is the perfect game script for Etienne since Trevor Lawrence is nicked up.
D’Andre Swift (PHI) vs. ARI
We had Swift in this section this past week, and we’re going right back to the well. The Eagles top back is just 12 yards shy of 1,000, which ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing. He also scored at least 14 fantasy points in seven of his first nine starts and has re-established the leadback role recently. He’s got 18 and 20 carries in his two most recent outings, combining for 166 rushing yards. The positive game scripts are a major reason for the resurgence, and we could see another 20 carries against Arizona. Not only do the Cardinals allow the most rushing yards in the NFL, but Philly is a 10.5-point home favorite.
Devin Singletary (HOU) vs. TEN
Singletary is not getting enough credit for what he’s doing this season. This former Buffalo Bills back has taken over this Houston Texans backfield, averaging 14 fantasy points per game across his past seven outings. The role is what’s allowed him to be so successful, averaging over 16 carries per game in that span. Some of you might be put off by the nine carries this past week, but that’ll happen at times when your team gets blown out. That shouldn’t be an issue here because Houston is a 3.5-point home favorite against a 20th-ranked Tennessee rush defense. When they played in Week 15, Singletary had 30 touches for 170 total yards.
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave (NO) at TB
Olave is one of the most talented wideouts in the NFL and it’s been fun watching him go off the final month of the season. The Saints pass-catcher has at least 114 receiving yards in three of his past four fixtures. That’s no surprise since he leads the team with a 25 percent team target share, receiving 13 targets last weekend. He’s also got at least 14 fantasy points in four of his past five games, which should be easy to reach against Tampa Bay. The Bucs are allowing the most passing yards and the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts this year!
Deebo Samuel (SF) at WAS
Deebo is one of my favorite players in the league because he makes NFL defenders look like children. We’ve been seeing that more and more recently, with Samuel scoring at least 19 fantasy points in four of his past five games. He’s done that with limited usage, but Deebo can destroy this woeful Washington secondary with just a few opportunities. The Commanders are allowing the second-most fantasy points and second-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts this year.
Calvin Ridley (JAX) vs. CAR
Ridley is another carryover from last week, and we simply can’t fade him with how much he’s being fed right now. With Christian Kirk out of the picture, Ridley is averaging 9.5 targets over his last six outings. He’s also scored at least 17 fantasy points in half of those while dropping 23 or more fantasy points in two of them. That’s an unbelievable upside, but we’ve seen Ridley be a top-10 receiver in the past. One of those ceiling games is definitely in play against Carolina, ranked 31st in total defense.
Tight Ends
Trey McBride (ARI) at PHI
If we’re going to recommend Murray, we have to use McBride. He’s the only legitimate pass-catcher in this offense right now, averaging 7.1 receptions and 9.0 targets over his last eight outings. He’s also scored at least 15 fantasy points in half of those, ranked as a top-3 tight end in that stretch. Some fantasy managers might be worried after struggling last week but look for McBride to get a ton of opportunities in this fantasy-friendly matchup. The Eagles are allowing the sixth-most passing yards in the NFL, and Arizona should be throwing a ton in a game where they’re massive underdogs.
D/STs
Cleveland Browns vs. NYJ
The Browns defense has carried Cleveland to the playoffs, ranked as the number three D/ST behind the Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys. That says a lot about this team, scoring at least 12 fantasy points six times this season. They also lead the league with 32 takeaways, while ranks top-10 in sacks as well. All of that should bode well against New York, ranked 30th in points scored and 31st in total yardage. They’re also surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing D/STs, with Cleveland entering this favorable matchup as a 7.5-point favorite in a game with a 36-point total.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
