This is when we make the big bucks! I’m in many of my semi-finals this week, and there’s no bigger week in the fantasy season. I was discouraged to get knocked out of my home league last week, though, because that one is always the most important. I’m sure many of you are competing in those types of leagues, and I want to help carry you to a championship. That’s why I’m doing more research than ever, and I’m confident most of these players will be excellent flex options!
The premise behind this article is simple: Identifying fantasy football smash plays that are on the fringe of your starting lineup. We rarely recommend a top-20 player at any position, but we want to help you fill those critical flex spots!
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Smash Starts for Week 16
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) at TB
We’re not sure Trevor Lawrence will be ready to go here, but he’s our favorite fringe quarterback of the week if he does. This former top pick has taken his game to another level over the last month, scoring at least 20 fantasy points in four of his last five games. He’s also averaging nearly 27 fantasy points per game in that span, doing that damage against some of the best defenses in the NFL. That’s certainly not the case for Tampa Bay, allowing the second-most passing yards and sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. If Lawrence cannot go, we like Baker Mayfield, the opposing quarterback in this matchup, as Jacksonville allows the third-most fantasy points to opposing signal-callers.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry (TEN) vs. SEA
This is risky with how poor Derrick Henry has looked the last two weeks, but we have to go back to “King Henry” here. Despite the poor run of form, Henry is sixth in the NFL with nearly 900 rushing yards. That’s hard to believe since he has just 43 rushing yards and 33 carries over the last two weeks, but he’s still scored at least 18 fantasy points in three of his last four fixtures. He’s also still guaranteed 15-20 carries, which should make him a sensational option against Seattle. The Seahawks surrender the fourth-most touchdowns and fifth-most fantasy points to opposing rushers.
D’Andre Swift (PHI) vs. NYG
D’Andre Swift has been in a slump similar to Henry’s, but he’s too good of a back to fade in a matchup like this. Let’s start there because the Giants rank in the bottom five in touchdowns, rushing yards and yards per carry allowed to opposing backs this season. That’s a recipe for success for Swift, especially since Philadelphia enters this fantastic matchup as a 12.5-point favorite. We’re still talking about a player who’s fifth in the NFL with 896 rushing yards. We wouldn’t be surprised to see him collect 100 yards and a touchdown in such a majestic matchup.
Aaron Jones (GB) at CAR
It’s hard to get excited about Aaron Jones with how he’s performed this year, but it’s hard to overlook the talent. This was a top-10 running back in the NFL between 2019 and 2022, but injuries have held him from retaining that standing. The talent is still there, though, with Jones averaging 14 fantasy points per game in the five games he’s played at least 25 snaps this year. We expect that to be a regular thing as we advance since he’s fully healthy now, picking up 13 carries and four catches last week. If he flirts with 20 touches against Carolina, Jones should go off. The Panthers are surrendering the third-most fantasy points and most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs this year!
Wide Receivers
DK Metcalf (SEA) at TEN
DK Metcalf has always been an athletic freak, but consistency has evaded him for most of his career. That said, he’s established himself as the top target in Seattle over the last two months, averaging 8.4 targets across his previous eight games. That’s led to Mercalf posting a 17-fantasy point average across his last six games, showcasing a 34-point upside in that span. One of those ceiling games is definitely in play against a terrible secondary like Tennessee, surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts. It also sounds like Geno Smith will return, which only adds to Metcalf’s value.
Chris Godwin (TB) vs. JAX
Chris Godwin struggled through the opening two months of the year but has found a rapport with Baker Mayfield over the last two weeks. He’s set season-highs across the board in those games, combining for 15 receptions for 208 yards on 23 total targets. That’s the stud we’ve become accustomed to, with Godwin averaging 88.3 catches on 118.5 targets for 1,075 yards over the last four years. It was just a matter of time before he regressed to those career norms, and he should continue that positive regression against Jacksonville. The Jaguars are allowing the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL!
Calvin Ridley (JAX) at TB
If we’re excited about Lawrence, we have to love Calvin Ridley. This former top-five wideout has been inconsistent this season, but he’s impossible to fade as long as Christian Kirk remains out. That absence has led to Ridley recording 25 targets over the last two games. That’s what we saw early in the season, with Ridley averaging 16 fantasy points per game in the five fixtures he’s received at least nine targets. That appears to be his floor from here on out, making him an enticing option against this terrible Tampa Bay secondary. They’re allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers.
Tight Ends
Evan Engram (JAX) at TB
Let’s cap off our Jacksonville stack with Evan Engram. He has benefited more than anyone from the Kirk injury, seeing his target share skyrocket because of his work across the middle of the field. In fact, Engram has at least four catches in every game this season, recording 40 targets over the last four games. He also has 27 and 19 fantasy points in two of his last three outings, seeing at least six targets in every game since the opener. That sort of usage is impossible to find from a tight end in today’s NFL, and we don’t mind that Tampa is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
D/STs
Denver Broncos (vs. NE)
The Broncos D/ST has had two nightmare outings this season, but they’ve been stellar outside of that. Before getting destroyed by Detroit last week, Denver was top-five in points allowed, and yards surrendered across their previous eight games. They were also a top-10 D/ST in that span. This is now their best matchup of the season. The Broncos are a 6.5-point home favorite in a game with a 34.5-point total. That means New England is projected to score just 14 points, which is no surprise since they are 29th in total yardage and dead-last in points scored.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.