Week 16 is here and most leagues are in the semifinals of their fantasy football leagues. That said, we must enhance our research to understand our players and those across from us in our matchup.
This article will help you decide on a challenging start/sit decision, ease your mind on a player your opponent rosters and more. Let’s start by breaking down one of the most critical and highest-scoring games on the slate: The Dallas Cowboys versus the Miami Dolphins.
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Stats To Know Before Setting Your Fantasy Football Lineup
The Penguin Shuffle
Whenever we get a chance to play someone from this explosive offense, we usually take the chance to do that. Well, we may want to be cautious with Jaylen Waddle. Our first reason is simple – Tyreek Hill should return this week to action. Second, this matchup does not favor Waddle regarding his coverage grade and how he fairs against this Dallas Cowboys defense.
Waddle has a coverage grade of -14.2%. Hill is much higher at +5.5%. We even have Cedric Wilson lined up for a more favorable matchup with a +37.5% coverage grade. Waddle has the speed to beat the Cowboys, but Miami usually leans heavily on Hill and if he is healthy, I expect nothing less than the same old song and dance in Week 16.
Man Coverage Aficionado
Cowboys run man coverage at a 41.9 percent clip in 2023. That’s an exceptionally high rate, especially against an offense featuring this level of speed and motion within their offense. Be wary of using the Dallas Cowboys defense, as this motion leads to separation and quick, easy throws for Tagovailoa, mitigating the Cowboys’ pass rush.
Will This Stat Make Me A Genius Or A Donkey?
Mitchell Trubisky has the highest coverage grade. Why am I writing about Trubisky? Well, this is more of a be careful what you wish for Pittsburgh Steelers fans because Mason Rudolph is not an answer. There is no answer on your team right now, but at least Trubisky would’ve given you a better chance in this game, even though neither gives you an excellent opportunity to win any game.
At the moment we would advise you to avoid all pass-catching options in Pittsburgh with the execption of one player we will discuss later. If you would like a hot take here is one for your ears: Mike Tomlin has begun to lose the locker room with the latest efforts from Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, and adding Rudolph into the equations will only exacerbate the issue
Heinz Getwellvet
“I am trainer of dolphins. You want to talk to de dolphin, you talk to me.” – Ace Ventura
However, call me Ace in this case because we are back here with the Dolphins speaking about Tua Tagovailoa. He steps into a matchup against the man- coverage-heavy Cowboys, touting a coverage grade of +16.2%. That’s the highest in Week 16 out of all starting quarterbacks. Tagovailoa destroys man coverage with a .84 QB FP/DB (Fantasy Points per dropback).
Tagovailoa should have his full arsenal of weapons with Hill back, which will elevate his game. Now mix in the motion of this offense and the excellent play calling by Mike McDaniel and you’ll see this is a week where Tagovailoa can beat his fantasy football projections. With the state of the quarterbacks in 2023, don’t just fade Tagovailoa due to the fear of the Cowboys defense.
It’s The Terror Of Knowing What The World Is About’
We return with the lyrics from “Under Pressure” by Queen/David Bowie to discuss pressure rates in the NFL. Pressure rates help you realize what defenses you can stream and who will struggle on each side of the ball.
Well, the New York Giants return with the highest pressure rate allowed on offense with 46.6%, followed by the Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears, New York Jets and the Carolina Panthers.
If you are down BAD, this stat allows us to focus on streaming the struggling the Philadelphia Eagles, New England Patriots, Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers defenses with a bit more confidence, knowing we could see more pressures/sacks within these games.
Our top-five defenses that will create high-pressure rate percentages are the Cowboys, Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers and Dolphins. What this stat says to me is that Vegas has too high of a total implied point for this Cowboys/Dolphins game. Not many games hit over 50 points and with these defensive pressure rates, I don’t expect this game to break that streak. Start your ancillary pieces outside of Tagovailoa, Hill and Cowboys wideout CeeDee Lamb sparingly.
Sam Howell Makes The Defensive World Go ‘Round
The Washington Commanders versus the New York Jets projects to be an incredibly dull matchup. However, with Howell under center after being pulled this past week, we can at least savor and succeed at our defensive slot with the Jets’ defense. Howell leads the NFL in interceptions (15) and sacks (59). When you look at the Jets, you see a dumpster fire, but the Jets defense is the fire-proof safe dropped in said dumpster. You can set them and forget them to reach your fantasy goals in Week 16.
I’m Really Good At Archery; I Guess You Could Say I’m On TARGET
Sad dad puns aside, look at these running back target % for their team:
1. Alvin Kamara: 19.5%
2. Christian McCaffrey: 16.4%
3. Austin Ekeler: 14.2%
4. Bijan Robinson: 14.2%
5. Saquon Barkley: 14.1%
6. Jahmyr Gibbs: 13.8%
7. Breece Hall: 13.3%
8. Jaylen Warren: 12.9%
The prominent names that interest me are Ekeler and Warren. Both have backup quarterbacks under center this weekend. The game plan should hide their flaws by leaning into their backfield in the run and passing game.
We fantasy managers should expect more targets from these pass-catching running backs. Expect even more for Ekeler with Keenan Allen out this weekend. The Chargers will undoubtedly be playing from behind, allowing for garbage time collection within our fantasy lineups.
Week 16 is crucial to progressing into your championships next week. Hopefully, these stats helped advance your research to allow you to walk away from your matchup with a victory. Remember to read all the fantastic work here at FantasyPros. If you need more help with waiver wires, start/sit questions, or anything else for your lineup, don’t hesitate to contact me on Twitter (X) at @jpep20.
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