If you’re playing a game in Week 16, then there’s a good chance that it matters greatly, whether that’s because of a chance to progress to the final or maybe just to avoid those last-place punishments nobody wants to be on the wrong end of. This article will aim to steer you away from the riskier players and towards those who will help you to happier days as the fantasy season winds down.
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11 Risky & Safe Starts for Week 16
Riskiest
Najee Harris (RB – PIT) vs. Bengals
There are few players more polarizing than Najee Harris, who, after flashing in his rookie year when Ben Roethlisberger was heavily targeting him, has otherwise failed to live up to his first-round draft status more often than not. The Bengals are a bottom-four run defense in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), allowing the fourth-highest yards per carry to running backs (4.5).
Harris seemed to have wrestled control of the majority of Pittsburgh’s backfield touches away from Jaylen Warren, but in Week 15, his opportunity share dropped to 42%. Harris has been kept to single-digit points in four of his last five games. Can you afford to deal with that in the fantasy playoffs?
Najee Harris might have the worst RB vision in NFL history pic.twitter.com/gMyP7weMAO
— GhettoGronk (@TheGhettoGronk) December 17, 2023
Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC) vs. Bills
Speaking of disappointing running backs… With the Chargers season sinking quickly, Austin Ekeler set season-lows in both rushing attempts (five), rushing yards (nine), and route participation (41%), along with failing to pick up a single first down on the ground for the first time this year. The Bills have struggled against the run, allowing 4.5 yards per carry and giving up the fifth-most receptions to the position, and with Justin Herbert, it might have been a different question, but right now, this feels like a low-floor, low-ceiling play.
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ) vs. Commanders
Every week, one lucky NFL team gets a chance to play the Commanders’ woeful secondary and pad their receiving numbers out as the season comes to a close. This week, it’s the New York Jets and Garrett Wilson, who is one of six receivers to boast a 30% or higher team target share. Against the Dolphins, Jalen Ramsey shadowed Wilson at a higher rate than we’d expect from Ramsey these days, and it meant Wilson saw no targets until the third quarter and finished his day with three catches on four targets for a miserable 29 yards.
Zach Wilson has actually proved to be better for Garrett Wilson this year than the other below-par options the Jets have rolled out, with Wilson producing 65 yards per game with Zach Wilson at quarterback compared to 47 without him. If Zach Wilson can’t clear the concussion protocol, do you have the stomach to start Garrett Wilson? It’s by no means without risk.
Garrett Wilson cooks Ramsey but doesn’t get the ball because Zach Wilson is being chased by 3 guys pic.twitter.com/udBcjTOhl6
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) December 18, 2023
Drake London (WR – ATL) vs. Colts
The Falcons quarterback carousel trundles around again, and we’re back to Taylor Heinicke for the second time this year after a second benching for Desmond Ridder. This move smacks of desperation from Arthur Smith, with us knowing exactly what Heinicke offers, or more to the point, doesn’t offer. In the two games Drake London played with Heinicke this year, he averaged 16 fewer receiving yards and 2.75 fewer PPR points.
The Colts have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this year, and the Falcons’ best chances of a win might involve keeping the ball on the ground as much as possible, with the Colts giving up big days to running backs much more frequently.
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA) vs. Cowboys
The weekly experience of Devon Achane’s first year in the NFL has been a roller coaster like we’ve never seen before, with four top-five weekly finishes along with two outside the top 20 and a further two outside the top 60. Achane hasn’t scored a touchdown in either of his last two games and while continuing to run well, he isn’t getting the kind of returns fantasy managers need. The Cowboys allow the 11th-fewest points to opposing running backs, and while James Cook just had tremendous success rushing against them, will we see Achane, or will Raheem Mostert continue to be the most reliable option?
Devon Achane’s weekly finishes
1.9
51.3
27.0
21.5
1.5
25.3
12.1
9.2 pic.twitter.com/onLUHTXWkN— Tom Strachan (@NFL_TStrack) December 19, 2023
Josh Downs (WR – IND) vs. Falcons
Michael Pittman could be forced to miss the Colts’ important matchup with the Falcons this week due to a nasty concussion sustained in Week 14. With Pittman missing, it might feel easy to portion off all of Pittman’s 10.2 targets per game to Josh Downs, who has established himself as the second option in this plucky offense, but the Falcons are a tough defense who have allowed only two top-10 finishes all season and held Mike Evans to 1.8 PPR points, Marquise Brown to 3.8, Nico Collins to 6.9 and Garrett Wilson to 8.0, to highlight just a few.
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN) vs. Patriots
The Patriots have the number-one ranked run defense in DVOA and have allowed only four top-10 performances all season. Before Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon finished as top 15 options this week, the last time anyone managed that against New England was Week 7. Javonte Williams has seen his opportunity share decrease for four straight weeks, resulting in a miserable 27 rushing yards at 2.3 per carry this last week.
Williams simply doesn’t get enough receptions per game to make up for inefficiencies in the ground game, and when he hasn’t scored touchdowns, he’s failed to finish inside the top 20 on a single occasion this year. Against a tough defense, there might not be any touchdowns on offer, and that spells bad results for fantasy managers.
I’ve seen enough Javonte Williams for one lifetime
— kev mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) December 17, 2023
Safest
DJ Moore (WR – CHI) vs. Cardinals
Through 10 games with Justin Fields this season, DJ Moore is averaging 91.2 yards per game and 20.52 PPR points, almost double the 52 yards and 10.3 points he averaged in the four games without Fields. The Cardinals allow a league-high 71.6% catch rate to opposing wide receivers, almost 3% higher than any other team, and they give up the tenth-most receiving yards per game to the position.
The Cardinals have been particularly vulnerable to the teams’ primary option, giving up big games to Ja’Maar Chase (52.2 points), Tank Dell (28.9), Amari Cooper (24.9), and Deebo Samuel (24.9). There might be questions about Justin Fields’ future, but there are no questions about whether to start DJ Moore this week.
David Njoku (RB – CLE) vs. Texans
Over the past two seasons, we now have an eleven-game sample where David Njoku has played with Deshaun Watson, and in those games, he averages 3.58 fewer PPR points than in those with any of the other backup options Cleveland has rolled out. Joe Flacco has long been a friend to tight ends, and Njoku is no different, averaging 8.2 targets per game with Flacco and putting up 15.85 points per game, more than both Travis Kelce and TJ Hockenson in that period. The Texans allow the fourth-most points to tight ends and will likely have their hands very full with Njoku.
David Njoku and Amari Cooper both topped 100 receiving yards.
The last time the Browns had two receivers over 100 yards in the same game was 2013 when Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron did it in Week 14.
— Jeff Bell (@4WhomJBellTolls) December 18, 2023
Mike Evans (WR – TB) vs. Jaguars
After a four-week spell where Evans was a top-seven receiver on three occasions, things slowed down somewhat with a tough couple of fixtures against the Falcons and Packers, who, while neither is elite at stopping the pass, have quietened top options well at times this year. The Jaguars, however, have allowed the tenth-most points to wide receivers this year and the fourth-most WR touchdowns per game. Evans can get back on track in a matchup with sneaky shoot-out potential if Trevor Lawrence is healthy.
Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF) vs. Chargers
Things haven’t been great for Stefon Diggs of late, with five straight games outside the top-ten wide receivers and only one in his last eight. Things, though, don’t come much easier than a matchup with a hopeless Chargers team that has underperformed across the board but particularly has on defense with their surrender of 63 points to the Raiders, the lowest of low points.
The Chargers allow the third-most points to opposing wide receivers and have allowed three receivers to score over 23 points since Week 12 alone. The Bills need to be firing on all cylinders for the playoffs, and it’s essential they get Stefon Diggs going sooner rather than later.
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