10 Risky & Safe Starts: Week 15 (2023 Fantasy Football)

By now you’re feeling the heat – it’s playoff time and the decisions that are in your control are looking pretty difficult. This column will help you feel better or worse about those decisions and leave you with some of the safest and riskiest starts in Week 15.

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Riskiest & Safest Starts for Week 15

Riskiest

Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN) vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Cincinnati Bengals reinserted themselves into the AFC’s lower-tier playoff hunt and made themselves interesting again – something that didn’t seem possible when Joe Burrow got injured against the Baltimore Ravens not too long ago. Chase has been a rollercoaster since Burrow got injured, putting up 12.1 PPR points in Week 12, followed by a monster 31.6 against the Jacksonville Jaguars and then a miserable 5.9 most recently against the Indianapolis Colts defense who are by no means elite. This week, Chase faces a Vikings defense that deserves more praise than they’ve had. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores has taken his blitz-happy scheme up to seventh in pass defense DVOA. Chase might find a way to be productive, but he could also bust and at this point in the fantasy season, that’s a hard pill to swallow.

Zack Moss (RB – IND) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

When Jonathan Taylor got injured, it was supposed to be the renaissance of Moss who had started off the year like greased lightning. But after two consecutive games outside the top-24 running backs, Moss has more resembled a headache than anything glitzy. Moss had a tough matchup against the Tennessee Titans, who he gashed for 195 yards earlier in the year, but only managed 57 this time around before putting up 56 against a Bengals defense that’s struggled to stop the run for weeks. Moss and the Colts play the Steelers who have been middle of the table against the run this year, allowing the 14th-most fantasy points to the position. The last time Moss scored double-digit points was in Week 8 and in what could be an ugly affair, he might struggle again here.

Javonte Williams (RB – DEN) vs. Detroit Lions

Week 14 was the first time Williams scored more than 10.5 PPR points since Week 10, and it felt like he’d turned a corner this season and was starting to become his old self. It might be that the “old” Williams never returns, but a more productive one is certainly welcome. The Detroit Lions, however, have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs this year, giving up the second-fewest yards per game (61). Williams is the clear lead back, but he’s only played over 65% of the snaps on one occasion this year, with the Broncos still wary of overworking him and might not be the league-winner down the stretch that he was drafted to be.

Derek Carr (QB – NO) vs. New York Giants

Every week Carr gets immeasurably beaten up on the field and then every week after being extensively listed on the injury report he makes it back onto the field and then performs awfully. Carr hasn’t been a top-20 quarterback since Week 9, averaging 8.0 points since then and throwing three touchdowns to three interceptions. The Giants aren’t a great defense, but they have enough to suck the air out of games and allow the 14th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, allowing only three top-twelve finishes all year. The quarterback scene is pretty ugly right now, but you can probably do better than Carr.

James Conner (RB – ARI) vs. San Francisco 49ers

The revenge game narrative was strong for Conner before the Cardinals’ Week 13 bye after he put up 22.5 PPR points on the Steelers, including two touchdowns. However, outside of that performance, Conner has only been a top-15 back on one other occasion this year and since Kyler Murray‘s return, Conner has caught a total of six receptions. The Niners have the third-best run defense in DVOA and have allowed the eleventh-fewest fantasy points to the position, it’s by far an ideal matchup for Conner.

Safest

David Njoku (TE – CLE) vs. Chicago Bears

Over the past two seasons, Njoku has played in eleven games with Deshaun Watson and averaged 2.72 PPR points fewer in those games than in the 16 other games he’s played with a variety of quarterbacks including P.J. Walker, Jacoby Brissett, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and, of course, Joe Flacco. Over the past four weeks, the Browns passing game has focused on Njoku, feeding him an average of 9.5 targets per game – 0.7 more than any other tight end in that period. Against the Jaguars, Njoku set season-highs in receiving yards (91) and touchdowns (2), and now faces a Chicago Bears side allowing the fifth-most points to tight ends and the third-highest catch rate.

Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Week 14 blow-up game was everything Jackson’s fantasy managers had been waiting for, with Jackson finishing as the QB1 on the week for the second time this year and scoring six more points than the next closest contender. The Jaguars have allowed the third-most points to opposing quarterbacks, including three top-six finishes in their past six games. The Jaguars have also allowed three quarterbacks to rush for 40 or more yards and score a touchdown against them, giving up five rushing touchdowns in total to quarterbacks. Since Week 9 Jackson is averaging 9.8 rush attempts and 52.8 yards per game on the ground, not to mention he has a habit of shining in the primetime spotlight.

Puka Nacua (WR – LAR) vs. Washington Commanders

Death, Taxes and playing wide receivers against the Commanders defense. Puka Nacua and the Rams are the latest players to be gifted the opportunity to pad their stats against a Commanders defense allowing a league-high 198 wide receiver yards per game and the second most fantasy points to the position. Nine different receivers have scored over 20 PPR points against Washington and seven have had over 100 yards. Kupp had a bounce-back game against the Ravens, but Nacua has still seen at least seven targets in every game this year and is set to smash.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The only team allowing more points to wide receivers than the Commanders is the Eagles, who also allow the most points specifically to slot receivers. That’s where Smith-Njgba averages 70% of his snaps. Smith-Njigba has averaged over 20% team target share in back-to-back games for the first time this year, seeing 18 targets for 87 yards and an almost touchdown that was called back against Dallas. This play will be a lot safer if Geno Smith is able to play, but we know that if Drew Lock is in there, he won’t ignore the promising rookie.