Welcome to Sleeper Picks. Sleeper’s newest offering promised plenty of entertainment and action, and they delivered. We will break down our top three picks for tonight’s NBA action. Sleeper is quickly becoming one of the most popular season-long fantasy platforms, and they are expanding into other areas based on demand. Each week in this space, we’ll talk about some strategy for the new platform while providing our favorite NBA more/less picks.
NBA Sleeper Picks Player Predictions (11/1)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (F – MIL): 0.5 double doubles
Giannis has had a strong start to the season and is averaging 27.3 points and 10 rebounds per game. Tonight, he will face off against a Toronto Raptors team that the electric superstar always seems to get up for. Perhaps it is a fellow Nigerian residing in the front office that gets his blood pumping just a little more; whatever the case, Giannis has etched his name in pen and is now included among noted Raptor killers like Dwight Howard and LeBron James. Giannis is averaging ‘just’ 10 rebounds per game on the season but has hauled in 11 or more in two of his three games. If you are looking for proof of inherent value on this line, look no further than Giannis’ rebound line, which is set at 11.5. Here, on the double-double, we are getting 9.5, albeit with a lower multiplier. Giannis played two games against Toronto last season, grabbing 12 and 21 rebounds. Toronto did not address their big man issues this summer as they were actually chasing Damian Lillard so they could aggressively pursue Giannis in 2024 free agency. Instead, the Bucks pulled off a desperation play to keep their superstar in town, and it worked. Expect Giannis to hit double-digit rebounds with relative ease.
Pick: More
Scottie Barnes (G/F – TOR): 17.5 points
This line dropped from 18.5 to 17.5 overnight, and I am all for it. Scottie Barnes is averaging 21 points per game this season and has drained 20 or more in three straight and in three of four games played this season. He scored just 17 in the opener, but the number stayed under due to a poor shooting night. Usually relatively efficient from the field with increased ball-handling duties, Barnes is now able to take the requisite shots per game to hit this number, even when his teammates devolve into selfish iso ball, even though no one, save perhaps Gary Trent, can create off the dribble. Barnes is in the midst of a breakout season, and the onus is on us to take advantage of oddsmakers who are more concerned with getting hammered by sharps for a big handle than they are about you and I hitting our More plays on Barnes for a few more games. Tap the More on Barnes for tonight’s game against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Pick: More
Alperen Sengun (C – HOU): 16.5 points
Sengun has been sensational for the Houston Rockets to start the season. We all knew a breakout was coming, but through three games, the results have been even better than expected. Sengun is posting averages of 19.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per game on .544 shooting. He is clicking with his new teammates and is operating as an offensive hub due to his smooth passing skills, and has posted at least six assists in every game so far. Sengun disappointed when we tapped the More in the opener (he scored just 14 points and needed 16) but has put up 19 or more points in the two games since. Back to the hub comment, Sengun currently sports a 24.4 usage rate. What does this mean in context? Fred Van Vleet, the team’s starting point guard, has a usage rate of 21.5. FVV is third on the team in usage behind Jalen Green and Sengun and was already playing a lot of off-ball in Toronto, you say? How about this: Tyrese Haliburton, an All-Star, pass-first point guard, has a usage rate of 24.9. This should illuminate just how often Sengun has the ball in his hands. Slap the More on Sengun for tonight’s game against the Charlotte Hornets.
Pick: More
Writers note: The lines are constantly changing on Sleeper, so there is a high probability that one or all of the numbers may no longer be the same when you open your app. There are excellent values when they are first posted, with the only catch being that they are not all released at the same time. Vigilance could provide a solid return on investment this season, literally.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.
