Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football: Titans vs. Steelers.
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Thursday Night Football Primer & Start/Sit Advice
- PIT -2.5, O/U 36.5
- Titans vs. Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Titans didn’t reinvent the wheel with Will Levis under center. Last week, they were 21st in neutral pace with the fifth-highest neutral rushing rate.
- The pace of this game will be healthy, but the play volume will flow to the rushing attacks. Pittsburgh is 12th in neutral pace, but sadly, they are also fourth in neutral rushing rate.
Quarterbacks
Will Levis: Levis had a strong debut as the QB6 in fantasy. He ranked sixth in highly accurate throw rate, 14th in adjusted completion rate, and first in fantasy points per dropback last week. Pittsburgh will give him a tougher test than Atlanta offered last week. The Steelers have given up the seventh-highest yards per attempt but they have also kept quarterbacks in check with the ninth-lowest adjusted completion rate and the 12th-lowest passer rating permitted. Levis was tied for the fourth-most play-action dropbacks last week. The Titans wisely built this wrinkle into the offensive attack and Levis responded with 9.6 yards per attempt and a 137.5 passer rating on play-action throws. Pittsburgh has yielded the seventh-highest yards per attempt (15th in play-action passer rating allowed) to play-action passes this season. This is an avenue that Levis could exploit, but he also has to contend with the Pittsburgh pass rush. They are fifth in pressure rate this season. Levis enjoyed the eighth-highest time to pressure last week. That likely won’t be the case in Week 9, so we can get a true litmus test regarding the rookie. Week 9 Positional Value: QB2
Kenny Pickett: Pickett has stated he will start this week, which is surprising considering the rib issue he is dealing with. Pickett has been nothing short of an incredible disappointment this season as the QB32 in fantasy. He hasn’t finished higher than QB15 in any week. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 25th in passing grade, 23rd in yards per attempt, and 32nd in adjusted completion rate. Since Week 4, the Titans’ pass defense has ranked 12th-worst in yards per attempt, 17th in passer rating, and 13th in adjusted completion rate allowed. In many aspects, they are a middle-of-the-road pass defense, except when you consider, in that span, that have allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL. Only two. Two passing touchdowns. That’s it. I wouldn’t be extremely high on a fully healthy Pickett facing this secondary, so a banged-up Pickett is even less enticing. Week 9 Positional Value: Basement level QB2
Week 9 Positional Value:
Running Backs
Derrick Henry: While many of his peers continue to wear down as the carry totals climb in their careers, Henry keeps on trucking. Henry remains a human steamroller. Among 65 qualifying backs, Henry is 15th in explosive run rate, 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 12th in yards after contact per attempt. Henry should have no issues leaving cleat marks up the Steelers’ backs this week. Pittsburgh has been struggling to stop the run all year. They have given up the seventh-highest missed tackles per attempt, the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the sixth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Henry 53.3% zone). Week 9 Positional Value: Top-5 RB
Tyjae Spears: Last week, Spears had his second-lowest snap share of the season as the Titans whooped the Falcons. Spears has averaged 7.5 touches and 45.4 total yards. This could be another game where he doesn’t see the field as much if Henry can run the ball down their throats early, but he could still be a productive flex play this week. The matchup is there for him to have a superbly efficient outing on minimal touches. Spears remains one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL. If anything ever happened to Henry, Spears would be a weekly RB1. He is second in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. The Steelers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Week 9 Positional Value: RB3/flex play
Najee Harris: Harris’s role has remained steady, with 49-58% of the snaps played weekly while averaging 13.9 touches and 58.1 total yards. Among 65 qualifying backs, Harris ranks 27th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 29th in yards after contact per attempt. Harris has not rushed for more than 71 yards in any game this season. Harris’s season won’t turn around this week as he faces the Titan’s elite run defense. Tennessee has contained backs with the lowest explosive run rate, the eighth-lowest missed tackles per attempt, and the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Week 9 Positional Value: RB3/4
Jaylen Warren: Warren has averaged 10.1 touches and 51.3 total yards. Among 65 qualifying backs, he ranks fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 37th in yards after contact per attempt. He has been a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3 in weekly scoring numerous times this season. Warren has a tough draw on the ground and through the air this week. Tennessee has the ninth-highest stuff rate and has surrendered the 11th-fewest rushing yards. Even Warren’s pass game role won’t help him against a defense that has allowed the fewest receptions and the second-fewest receiving yards to backs. Week 9 Positional Value: RB3/4
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins: After last week’s monster game, Hopkins is the WR23 in fantasy. Among 119 qualifying wide receivers, he is 17th in target share (25.8%), tenth in air-yard share (41.7%), ninth in yards per route run (YPRR, 2,8), and 14th in first-read share (33.6%). Since Week 4, Pittsburgh has utilized man coverage at the second-highest rate in the league (41.7%). Against man, Hopkins has seen his numbers increase in target share (28.6%), YPRR (3.16), and first-read share (36.1%). Hopkins will run about 75% of his routes against Joey Porter Jr. (21.4% catch rate and 9.8 passer rating) and Patrick Peterson (58.8% catch rate and 115.6 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR2/3
Treylon Burks: Burks has struggled against man coverage this season, so I doubt that he’s walking away from Week 9 with a monster game. Against man this year, he has an 18.8% target share, a 12.9% air-yard share, 1.00 YPRR, and an 18.5% first-read share. This feels like a game where Tennessee could limit the passing volume, which hurts all Tennessee receiving options not named DeAndre Hopkins. Add in Burks’ mediocre man coverage numbers, and he’s an easy sit. Week 9 Positional Value: Sit
Diontae Johnson: Since his return to the starting lineup, Johnson has dominated the targets. He has had a 29.4% target share, a 43.3% air-yard share, 2.28 YPRR, and a 36.4% first-read share. In his injury-abbreviated season, Johnson has already climbed to second on the team in red zone targets (three). Since Week 7, he has been second on the team in deep targets. Johnson will run about 82% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (65.4% catch rate and 86.4 passer rating) and Kristian Fulton (69% catch rate and 115.3 passer rating). Tennessee has allowed the sixth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 9 Positional Value: WR2/3
George Pickens: With Johnson back, Pickens has had a 19.1% target share, a 39.7% air-yard share, 1.77 YPRR, and a 25% first-read share. We’ve seen Pickens in this small sample turn back into the team’s downfield threat as he leads the team with five deep targets and has a 17.7 aDOT. Tennessee has improved significantly against deep passing as the season has progressed. Since Week 4, Tennessee has kept receivers to the fourth-lowest YPRR and the fifth-lowest deep receiving yards per game. This could be another down week for Pickens. Pickens will run about 87% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (65.4% catch rate and 86.4 passer rating) and Kristian Fulton (69% catch rate and 115.3 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR3
Tight Ends
Chigoziem Okonkwo: Okonkwo has been a huge disappointment this season. He has had a 16.0% target share, an 11.2% air-yard share, and only 0.99 YPRR to show for it. He has only two red zone targets this season. This isn’t the matchup to consider streaming him. Pittsburgh has given up the fourth-fewest receiving yards and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Week 9 Positional Value: TE2
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*