Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- CIN -2, O/U 49.5
- Bills vs. Bengals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- These teams have both evolved into slow-and-throw teams. Buffalo is 19th in neutral pace, while the Bengals are 27th. Each team also ranks in the top-eight in neutral passing rate (CIN second, BUF seventh).
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen: Allen is dealing with a shoulder injury, but I doubt that Buffalo can hold him out in this matchup unless his arm isn’t functional. Allen is the QB1 in fantasy, ranking second in passing grade, fourth in yards per attempt, and third in adjusted completion rate. Whether it’s related to the shoulder or not, Allen is running less this season. He is second in rushing touchdowns, but he has surpassed 30 rushing yards only three times this season. For context, last season, through his first eight games played, he cleared 30 rushing yards seven times. The Bengals have fielded a nasty pass defense this season, holding quarterbacks to the 11th-lowest passing touchdowns and the eighth-lowest passer rating and adjusted completion rate. The area where Allen has succeeded all year, which also happens to be the Bengals’ kryptonite, is play-action passing. Cincinnati has allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt and tenth-highest CPOE on play-action throws. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Allen is ninth in play-action yards per attempt, first in play-action passing touchdowns, and 11th in play-action adjusted completion rate. Week 9 Positional Value: QB1
Joe Burrow: BURROW IS BACK! Joe Cool. Joe Shiesty. The man is back. The calf looked 100% this past week as Burrow was moving all over the pocket and even added six rushes for 43 yards to prove a point. Burrow was the QB4 last week while ranking third in passing grade, fifth in yards per attempt, and fourth in big-time throw rate. Since losing Tre’Davious White, the Bills have surrendered the eighth-highest passer rating, the tenth-most passing yards per game, and the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate. Over that same span, their pass rush has remained scary, with the fourth-lowest time to pressure and the ninth-best pressure rate. If this were a few weeks ago, I would be worried for Burrow, but last week, he posted a 95.0 passing grade, 13.6 yards per attempt, and a 100% adjusted completion rate against pressure. Burrow should carve up this secondary. Week 9 Positional Value: QB1
Running Backs
James Cook: Last week, Cook played his highest snap share of the season with 67% of the snaps, as he had 15 touches and 73 total yards. The Bills have cut back his pass game usage a ton, as he has only two games with at least three targets since Week 4. Cook has averaged 15.1 touches and 84.8 total yards this season as the RB25 in fantasy. Among 65 qualifying backs, Cook is 19th in explosive run rate and 43rd in yards after contact per attempt. Cook should run wild this week against the Bengals. Cincinnati’s run defense has been a problem all season, allowing the third-highest explosive run rate, the second-most missed tackles per attempt, and the sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 9 Positional Value: RB2 with RB1 upside
Leonard Fournette: Uncle Len finally has a new home. We’ll see if Fournette is active this week, but I expect him to play and vaporize Latavius Murray immediately. Fournette looked like a player on his last legs last season. Among 42 qualifying backs last season, he was 41st in explosive run rate, 39th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 42nd in yards after contact per attempt. Fournette’s pass-game ability does give him more utility than the early downs only Murray. Week 9 Positional Value: Stash
Joe Mixon: Mixon has been a volume-dependent RB2 (RB21). He is seventh in snap share, first in opportunity share, 13th in weighted opportunities, and fifth in red zone touches. Since Week 2, Mixon has played at least 70% of the snaps weekly, averaging 19.2 touches and 84.5 total yards. Among 65 qualifying backs, he is 38th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. Mixon should enjoy another banner day against a Buffalo run defense that has bled out production all season. They have the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the highest yards after contact per attempt, and the second-highest yards per carry allowed to zone runs (Mixon 50.9% zone). Week 9 Positional Value: RB1
Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs: Diggs is the WR4 in fantasy with a 30.8% target share (second-best), a 43.5% air-yard share (fifth-best), 2.58 YPRR (17th), and a 40.2% first-read share (third). He’s also sixth in deep targets and fifth in red zone targets. If Allen dices up this secondary with play-action, Diggs will lead the way. He leads the team in play-action targets with a 30.1% target share on play-action passes. Diggs will run about 59% of his routes against D.J. Turner ll (41.2% catch rate and 50.9 passer rating) and Cam Taylor-Britt (55.6% catch rate and 76.3 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR1
Gabriel Davis: Davis is the WR32 in fantasy as the team’s deep threat. Davis has a 16.4% target share, a 26.6% air-yard share, 1.72 YPRR, and a 17.7% first-read share. The Bengals have utilized zone coverage on 69.4% of their defensive snaps. Against zone, Davis’ air-yard share has increased to 27.7%, and his YPRR skyrockets to 2.03. Also working in Davis’ favor is his 22.9% target share on play-action passes. Last week, when he was ripping apart the Bucs secondary, he had a 50% target share on play-action passes with a 73.8% air-yard share. Davis could repeat those numbers this week. Davis has five of his eight red zone targets this season over his last two games. Davis will run about 81% of his routes against D.J. Turner ll (41.2% catch rate and 50.9 passer rating) and Cam Taylor-Britt (55.6% catch rate and 76.3 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR2/3
Khalil Shakir: Last week without Dawson Knox, Buffalo utilized 11 personnel at the eighth-highest rate (77.9% of snaps) as Shakir became a full-time player (66.7% route run rate) in the offense. Shakir drew a 15.0% target share and a 22.9% air-yard share, but he only saw a 3.8% first-read share. With that low first-read share, his target share is only shakier ground than it appears on the surface. He produced 92 receiving yards and 3.07 YPRR with the bump in work. Shakir will run about 70% of his routes against Mike Hilton (60.7% catch rate and 69.5 passer rating). The Bengals have allowed the second-most receiving touchdowns to slot receivers this season. Week 9 Positional Value: WR4
Ja’Marr Chase: Chase is the WR5 in fantasy, ranking second in red zone targets. He has at least 12 targets and 80 receiving yards in four of his last five games. His usage numbers are just silly at this point. He has a 31.7% target share, a 42.8% air-yard share, 2.39 YPRR, and a 40.1% first-read share. Since losing Tre’Davious White, Buffalo is 13th in passer rating allowed to perimeter wide receivers. Week 9 Positional Value: WR1
Tee Higgins: Higgins still isn’t 100%. Last week, he drew an 18.8% target share and 32.2% air-yard share, but he only had a 63% route run rate. Higgins still produced 2.88 YPRR and was second on the team with a 19.2% first-read share. Higgins has three of his six red zone targets over his last three games played. I’m hoping with another week away from the rib injury, we will see Higgins’ playing time continue to tick up, but it’s not a certainty. Week 9 Positional Value: WR2/3
Tyler Boyd: Boyd has a 15.8% target share, a 15.9% air-yard share, 1.00 YPRR, and an 18.7% first-read share. Boyd has stacked three straight top-36 wide receiver weeks in a row (WR34, WR17, WR31). He could make it four in a row this week. Since Week 5, Buffalo has allowed the ninth-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Boyd will run about 89% of his routes against Taron Johnson (87% catch rate and 127.0 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR3
Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid: Last week, Dalton Kincaid was FINALLY unleashed. He had a 75.6% route run rate, a 15% target share, a 15.7% air-yard share, 1.91 YPRR, and a 15.4% first-read share. He finished with 65 receiving yards. Over the last two weeks, he has finished as the TE6 and TE7. The Bengals have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game and the most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Kincaid smash week incoming. Week 9 Positional Value: TE1
TEN vs. PIT | MIA vs. KC | LAR vs. GB | TB vs. HOU | CHI vs. NO | SEA vs. BAL | MIN vs. ATL | ARI vs. CLE | WAS vs. NE | IND vs. CAR | DAL vs. PHI | NYG vs. LV | BUF vs. CIN | LAC vs. NYJ
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets
- LAC -3.5, O/U 40
- Chargers vs. Jets Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- The game will be amazing from a play-volume perspective. The Chargers are sixth in neutral pace, while the Jets are besting them at third.
- There should also be a healthy amount of passing in this contest as the Bolts are eighth in neutral passing rate, and New York is 14th.
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert: Herbert is the QB3 in fantasy points per game and put to rest any worries last week as he finished with 298 passing yards and three scores as the QB8. Herbert is seventh in yards per attempt and fantasy points per dropback while ranking ninth in highly accurate throw rate. The Jets are a fearsome pass defense, allowing the third-lowest yards per attempt, fourth-lowest passer rating, and the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The one area where they are mortals is against play-action passing. Herbert has the seventh-most play-action dropbacks while ranking sixth in play-action passer rating and fourth in play-action passing touchdowns. New York has allowed the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate to play-action passes while also ranking 17th in CPOE against play-action. Week 9 Positional Value: QB1
Zach Wilson: Yes, I know Wilson faces the Chargers this week, who seemingly give up passing production to everyone in the NFL. It’s still a hard pass for me. Wilson has only surpassed 200 passing yards in two games this season and has one weekly finish above QB21. He has one passing touchdown over his last three games and only three passing scores across his last five games. He has surpassed 13 fantasy points once. Even in Superflex formats, we can find that type of production from a positional player. Wilson is a player I wish I could sum up weekly with a two-word answer. “Just no.” Week 9 Positional Value: Weekly Must Sit
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler: Last week, Ekeler finished with 67% of the snaps played with 22 touches and 123 total yards. While he looked like he had his pre-injury juice back, the numbers say otherwise. He was stuffed on 53.3% of his runs. He didn’t manage any explosive runs, with a 13% missed tackles forced per attempt mark and 1.47 yards after contact per attempt. All of these are frighteningly bad numbers, but the volume infusion and pass-game usage are very encouraging. If the team is feeding him volume, I feel good that his health is trending in the right direction, and we’re just going to have to be patient for the explosiveness to return. While the Jets’ secondary has been scary, their run defense has been porous. They have allowed the eighth-highest explosive run rate and the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Ekeler should be able to get something going on the ground while also feasting through the air. New York has given up the sixth-most receptions and receiving yards to backs. Week 9 Positional Value: RB1
Breece Hall: Hall is a matchup-proof RB1. Over the last three games, he has averaged 20 touches and 126.7 total yards while finishing as the RB3, RB4, and RB7 in weekly scoring. Hall is ninth in explosive run rate, 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and third in yards after contact per attempt. Los Angeles has been a run defense to avoid this season as they have stifled backs with the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, the sixth-lowest missed tackles allowed per attempt, and the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. That matters little for Hall, who can get it done through the air. He has averaged 5.5 receptions and 65 receiving yards over his last two games. The Bolts have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and the eighth-highest yards per reception to backs this season. Week 9 Positional Value: Matchup proof RB1
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen: Allen is the WR6 in fantasy despite being relatively quiet the last two games (WR41, WR26). Without Mike Williams, Allen has had a 26.0% target share, a 37.4% air-yard share, 1.73 YPRR, and a 36.5% first-read share. He has ten deep targets while also ranking 17th among wide receivers in red zone targets. New York has allowed only one touchdown and the lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Allen will run about 62% of his routes against Michael Carter (56% catch rate and 82.3 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: Low-end WR1
Joshua Palmer: Palmer has been ruled out.
Quentin Johnston: Last week, with Palmer ailing, Johnston picked up the slack with a 63% route run rate, 15% target share, a 27.2% air-yard share, 1.92 YPRR, and a 15.4% first-read share. We saw flashes of Johnston’s after-the-catch ability as he forced two missed tackles. The Jets have not been giving to perimeter wide receivers (last week, Johnston had 76% of his snaps on the boundary). New York has allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target and zero receiving touchdowns to perimeter wide receivers. Week 9 Positional Value: WR4
Garrett Wilson: Wilson is the WR23 in fantasy, drawing a beautiful 29.7% target share, a 48.9% air-yard share, 1.98 YPRR, and a 45.7% first-read share. Wilson has been amazing this season. He has been producing as a WR2 despite Zach Wilson. This offseason, the question was posed: “Can Wilson be Aaron Rodgers‘ new Davante Adams?” Well, I think we have our answer. It’s just a shame that we were robbed of seeing him blow up with Rodgers chucking him the ball. Wilson is tenth in deep targets and fifth in red zone looks. Wilson will run about 72% of his routes against Asante Samuel Jr. (69.4% catch rate and 95.1 passer rating) and Michael Davis (67.3% catch rate and 120.8 passer rating). The Bolts have allowed the sixth-highest PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving touchdowns to perimeter wideouts. Week 9 Positional Value: WR2
Tight Ends
Tyler Conklin: Conklin makes the Primer this week as a matchup-based streamer. Conklin has a 14.3% target share and a 12.6% air-yard share. His two red zone targets this season are an ugly result, but they have come in his last four games, so there’s hope that he can earn one this week and punch it in for his first score of the season. The Bolts have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and the tenth-highest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 9 Positional Value: Matchup-based streamer
TEN vs. PIT | MIA vs. KC | LAR vs. GB | TB vs. HOU | CHI vs. NO | SEA vs. BAL | MIN vs. ATL | ARI vs. CLE | WAS vs. NE | IND vs. CAR | DAL vs. PHI | NYG vs. LV | BUF vs. CIN | LAC vs. NYJ
Tennessee Titans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- PIT -2.5, O/U 36.5
- Titans vs. Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Titans didn’t reinvent the wheel with Will Levis under center. Last week, they were 21st in neutral pace with the fifth-highest neutral rushing rate.
- The pace of this game will be healthy, but the play volume will flow to the rushing attacks. Pittsburgh is 12th in neutral pace, but sadly, they are also fourth in neutral rushing rate.
Quarterbacks
Will Levis: Levis had a strong debut as the QB6 in fantasy. He ranked sixth in highly accurate throw rate, 14th in adjusted completion rate, and first in fantasy points per dropback last week. Pittsburgh will give him a tougher test than Atlanta offered last week. The Steelers have given up the seventh-highest yards per attempt but they have also kept quarterbacks in check with the ninth-lowest adjusted completion rate and the 12th-lowest passer rating permitted. Levis was tied for the fourth-most play-action dropbacks last week. The Titans wisely built this wrinkle into the offensive attack and Levis responded with 9.6 yards per attempt and a 137.5 passer rating on play-action throws. Pittsburgh has yielded the seventh-highest yards per attempt (15th in play-action passer rating allowed) to play-action passes this season. This is an avenue that Levis could exploit, but he also has to contend with the Pittsburgh pass rush. They are fifth in pressure rate this season. Levis enjoyed the eighth-highest time to pressure last week. That likely won’t be the case in Week 9, so we can get a true litmus test regarding the rookie. Week 9 Positional Value: QB2
Kenny Pickett: Pickett has stated he will start this week, which is surprising considering the rib issue he is dealing with. Pickett has been nothing short of an incredible disappointment this season as the QB32 in fantasy. He hasn’t finished higher than QB15 in any week. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 25th in passing grade, 23rd in yards per attempt, and 32nd in adjusted completion rate. Since Week 4, the Titans’ pass defense has ranked 12th-worst in yards per attempt, 17th in passer rating, and 13th in adjusted completion rate allowed. In many aspects, they are a middle-of-the-road pass defense, except when you consider, in that span, that have allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL. Only two. Two passing touchdowns. That’s it. I wouldn’t be extremely high on a fully healthy Pickett facing this secondary, so a banged-up Pickett is even less enticing. Week 9 Positional Value: Basement level QB2
Running Backs
Derrick Henry: While many of his peers continue to wear down as the carry totals climb in their careers, Henry keeps on trucking. Henry remains a human steamroller. Among 65 qualifying backs, Henry is 15th in explosive run rate, 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 12th in yards after contact per attempt. Henry should have no issues leaving cleat marks up the Steelers’ backs this week. Pittsburgh has been struggling to stop the run all year. They have given up the seventh-highest missed tackles per attempt, the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the sixth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Henry 53.3% zone). Week 9 Positional Value: Top-5 RB
Tyjae Spears: Last week, Spears had his second-lowest snap share of the season as the Titans whooped the Falcons. Spears has averaged 7.5 touches and 45.4 total yards. This could be another game where he doesn’t see the field as much if Henry can run the ball down their throats early, but he could still be a productive flex play this week. The matchup is there for him to have a superbly efficient outing on minimal touches. Spears remains one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL. If anything ever happened to Henry, Spears would be a weekly RB1. He is second in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. The Steelers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Week 9 Positional Value: RB3/flex play
Najee Harris: Harris’s role has remained steady, with 49-58% of the snaps played weekly while averaging 13.9 touches and 58.1 total yards. Among 65 qualifying backs, Harris ranks 27th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 29th in yards after contact per attempt. Harris has not rushed for more than 71 yards in any game this season. Harris’s season won’t turn around this week as he faces the Titan’s elite run defense. Tennessee has contained backs with the lowest explosive run rate, the eighth-lowest missed tackles per attempt, and the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Week 9 Positional Value: RB3/4
Jaylen Warren: Warren has averaged 10.1 touches and 51.3 total yards. Among 65 qualifying backs, he ranks fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 37th in yards after contact per attempt. He has been a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3 in weekly scoring numerous times this season. Warren has a tough draw on the ground and through the air this week. Tennessee has the ninth-highest stuff rate and has surrendered the 11th-fewest rushing yards. Even Warren’s pass game role won’t help him against a defense that has allowed the fewest receptions and the second-fewest receiving yards to backs. Week 9 Positional Value: RB3/4
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins: After last week’s monster game, Hopkins is the WR23 in fantasy. Among 119 qualifying wide receivers, he is 17th in target share (25.8%), tenth in air-yard share (41.7%), ninth in yards per route run (YPRR, 2,8), and 14th in first-read share (33.6%). Since Week 4, Pittsburgh has utilized man coverage at the second-highest rate in the league (41.7%). Against man, Hopkins has seen his numbers increase in target share (28.6%), YPRR (3.16), and first-read share (36.1%). Hopkins will run about 75% of his routes against Joey Porter Jr. (21.4% catch rate and 9.8 passer rating) and Patrick Peterson (58.8% catch rate and 115.6 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR2/3
Treylon Burks: Burks has struggled against man coverage this season, so I doubt that he’s walking away from Week 9 with a monster game. Against man this year, he has an 18.8% target share, a 12.9% air-yard share, 1.00 YPRR, and an 18.5% first-read share. This feels like a game where Tennessee could limit the passing volume, which hurts all Tennessee receiving options not named DeAndre Hopkins. Add in Burks’ mediocre man coverage numbers, and he’s an easy sit. Week 9 Positional Value: Sit
Diontae Johnson: Since his return to the starting lineup, Johnson has dominated the targets. He has had a 29.4% target share, a 43.3% air-yard share, 2.28 YPRR, and a 36.4% first-read share. In his injury-abbreviated season, Johnson has already climbed to second on the team in red zone targets (three). Since Week 7, he has been second on the team in deep targets. Johnson will run about 82% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (65.4% catch rate and 86.4 passer rating) and Kristian Fulton (69% catch rate and 115.3 passer rating). Tennessee has allowed the sixth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 9 Positional Value: WR2/3
George Pickens: With Johnson back, Pickens has had a 19.1% target share, a 39.7% air-yard share, 1.77 YPRR, and a 25% first-read share. We’ve seen Pickens in this small sample turn back into the team’s downfield threat as he leads the team with five deep targets and has a 17.7 aDOT. Tennessee has improved significantly against deep passing as the season has progressed. Since Week 4, Tennessee has kept receivers to the fourth-lowest YPRR and the fifth-lowest deep receiving yards per game. This could be another down week for Pickens. Pickens will run about 87% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (65.4% catch rate and 86.4 passer rating) and Kristian Fulton (69% catch rate and 115.3 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR3
Tight Ends
Chigoziem Okonkwo: Okonkwo has been a huge disappointment this season. He has had a 16.0% target share, an 11.2% air-yard share, and only 0.99 YPRR to show for it. He has only two red zone targets this season. This isn’t the matchup to consider streaming him. Pittsburgh has given up the fourth-fewest receiving yards and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Week 9 Positional Value: TE2
TEN vs. PIT | MIA vs. KC | LAR vs. GB | TB vs. HOU | CHI vs. NO | SEA vs. BAL | MIN vs. ATL | ARI vs. CLE | WAS vs. NE | IND vs. CAR | DAL vs. PHI | NYG vs. LV | BUF vs. CIN | LAC vs. NYJ
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All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, 4for4, Rotoviz, RBdsm.com, The Edge from the 33rd Team, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.