Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots

• NE -3.5, O/U 40.5
• Commanders vs. Patriots Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Washington is 16th in neutral pace, but they are passing at the fourth-highest rate in close games.
• New England continues to move quickly and throw a ton, ranking fourth in neural pace and 12th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Sam Howell: Howell is the QB9 in fantasy, ranking second in passing attempts, sixth in passing yards, and sixth in passing touchdowns. He has been a QB1 in three of his last four games (QB5, QB8, QB1). Howell ranks eighth in adjusted completion rate and highly accurate throw rate. Since Week 4, the Patriots have struggled as a pass defense, yielding the eight-most passing yards per game, the fourth-most passing touchdowns, and the sixth-highest passer rating. During this stretch, they have been 23rd in pressure rate, so Howell should have plenty of clean pockets to deal from in Week 9. Week 9 Positional Value: QB1

Mac Jones: Since Week 6, Jones has been 29th in passing grade, 18th in yards per attempt, and fifth in adjusted completion rate. In the same span, the Commanders have remained one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. They have allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the most passing touchdowns, and the fourth-most passing yards per game. With no Montez Sweat and Chase Young to apply pressure, Jones should have all day in the pocket to pick apart this pass defense. Week 9 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Week 8

Brian Robinson: Last week, this reverted to just a two-person backfield, as Robinson played 49% of the snaps. Since Week 6, he has averaged 10.6 touches and 52.7 total yards. He ranks 17th in explosive run rate and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. He faces a tall order this week against a standout Patriots-run defense. They have limited rushers with the sixth-lowest explosive run rate, the highest stuff rate, and the seventh-lowest yards per carry allowed to zone runs (Robinson 64.2% zone). Week 9 Positional Value: RB3

Antonio Gibson: Gibson’s fantasy utility is tied to his pass game usage. Since Week 6, he has averaged a paltry five touches and 29.7 total yards. He has four games this season with at least 24 receiving yards. Gibson is a low-end flex with the most value in PPR leagues. New England has allowed the seventh-most receptions and the eighth-most receiving yards to running backs this season. Week 9 Positional Value: RB3/4

Rhamondre Stevenson: I’ve waived the white flag on Stevenson for 2023. He has averaged 15.2 touches and done very little with it (60 total yards per game). Among 65 qualifying backs, he is 55th in explosive run rate, 50th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 62nd in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 4, Washington has done well with defending the ground game. They have yielded the tenth-lowest explosive run rate and the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. We’ll see if they can continue to operate at such a high level after trading away key cogs on their defensive line. Even against a degraded defensive line, I don’t have much faith in Stevenson. Week 9 Positional Value: RB3

Ezekiel Elliott: Why would you flex Elliott at this point? Do you enjoy pain? Outside of the two weeks in which he luck-boxed touchdowns, Elliott has finished above RB30 only once and outside the top-48 backs three times. Elliott ranks 52nd in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt. Week 9 Positional Value: Droppable

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin: McLaurin is the WR25 in fantasy, ranking 18th in deep targets. He also has six red zone targets in his last two games. McLaurin has started to heat up with at least nine targets and 63 receiving yards in each of his last three games. The Patriots have the fourth-highest rate of man coverage (38.4%). Against man coverage, McLaurin has a 26.1% target share, a 46.4% air-yard share, 2.07 YPRR, and a 29.6% first-read share. Week 9 Positional Value: WR2/3

Jahan Dotson: I’m willing to chalk Dotson’s big Week 8 performance up to matchup and variance. He hasn’t snagged more than five balls or surpassed 50 receiving yards in any other game this season. Dotson has also disappeared against man coverage this season with a 10.9% target share, a 9.4% air-yard share, and 1.05 YPRR against man. Sit Dotson. Week 9 Positional Value: Sit

Curtis Samuel: Samuel has been ruled out (toe). 

Demario Douglas: Douglas will lead the Patriots’ passing attack this week. In Week 8, he had an 84.4% route run rate with a 24.1% target share, a 27.2% air-yard share, 0.93 YPRR, and a 28.6% first-read share. Since Week 6, Washington has allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target and the third-most receiving yards to slot receivers (Douglas 74% slot). Douglas is a strong flex play with a tangible upside this week. Week 9 Positional Value: WR4 with WR2/3 upside

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas: Thomas is the TE8 in fantasy points per game. He is 13th in targets, 15th in target share, and 14th in red zone targets among tight ends. Thomas has four TE1 weeks on his resume this season. New England is 14th in receiving yards and 12th in catch rate allowed to tight ends. Week 9 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

TEN vs. PIT | MIA vs. KC | LAR vs. GB | TB vs. HOU | CHI vs. NO | SEA vs. BAL | MIN vs. ATL | ARI vs. CLE | WAS vs. NE | IND vs. CAR | DAL vs. PHI | NYG vs. LV | BUF vs. CIN | LAC vs. NYJ

Indianapolis Colts vs. Carolina Panthers

• IND -2.5, O/U 44
• Colts vs. Panthers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Gardner Minshew starting, the Colts have been ninth in neutral pace and 14th in neutral rushing rate.
• Since Week 6, Carolina has been 15th in neutral pace with the tenth-highest neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew: In Minshew’s starts, he has finished as the QB23, QB18, QB3, and QB17 in weekly scoring. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 33rd in passing grade, 20th in yards per attempt, and 18th in adjusted completion rate. Minshew could flirt with QB1 numbers this week against a pass defense that is 11th in yards per attempt, 14th in passing touchdowns, and 11th in passer rating allowed. He should enjoy clean pockets against a Carolina team that ranks dead last in pressure rate. Week 9 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

Bryce Young: Young has finished as the QB17 or lower in five of his six games this season. He has eclipsed 6.0 yards per attempt and had multiple passing touchdowns in only one game. Young is a must-sit unless the matchup is beautiful, and unfortunately, that isn’t this week. Since Week 6, the Colts pass defense has been improving. Over their last three games, they have kept passers in check with the 12th-lowest passer rating, the 11th-lowest CPOE, and the ninth-lowest adjusted completion rate allowed. Week 9 Positional Value: Sit

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor: Taylor’s workload continues to ramp up. Last week, he played 61% of the snaps with 13 touches and 97 total yards. His snaps have increased every week. Taylor has looked like the explosive player that we know and love since Week 7. Among 38 qualifying running backs since Week 7, Taylor ranks seventh in explosive run rate, second in missed tackles forced per attempt, and first in yards after contact per attempt. Taylor will DESTROY Carolina this week. The Panthers have allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt. Taylor will put on a vintage performance this week, reminding people why he deserved the big contract. Week 9 Positional Value: Top-5 RB

Zack Moss: Moss has seen his workload trending down. Last week, he played only 39% of the snaps with 12 touches and 74 total yards. Over the last three weeks, Taylor has out-touched him in the red zone (13 vs. six). Among 65 qualifying backs, Moss ranks 21st in explosive run rate and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. The rushing matchup is so juicy this week that I wouldn’t be surprised if Taylor and Moss both finish inside the top-24 fantasy backs. The Panthers have allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 9 Positional Value: RB3 with RB2 upside

Chuba Hubbard: Last week, Hubbard played 67% of the snaps with 17 touches and 54 total yards. Hubbard has been the better back in this backfield all season long. It seems the Carolina Panthers coaching staff now agrees. Among 65 qualifying backs, Hubbard ranks 29th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 30th in yards after contact per attempt. Don’t get carried away with Hubbard hope this week, though. Indy still has a good run defense with the 14th-best stuff rate, the 11th-lowest missed tackles per attempt, and the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Week 9 Positional Value: RB3

Miles Sanders: Last week, Sanders played only 18% of the snaps with two touches. We have to see his workload trend back up to consider plugging him in lineups. This could be Hubbard’s backfield moving forward. For now, hold Sanders. Week 9 Positional Value: Hold/Sit

Wide Receivers

Michael Pittman man/zone splits (per Fantasy Points Data)

Michael Pittman: Pittman has been the team’s go-to receiver against zone with a 26.2% target share, a 29.9% air-yard share, and a 36.3% first-read share. Carolina has the second-highest zone coverage rate (84.4%) in the NFL. Pittman is the WR17 in fantasy, running 23rd in deep targets and second in red zone targets. Carolina has been torched by the deep ball, allowing the ninth-highest yards per attempt and passer rating on deep passes. Pittman leads the team in deep targets. Pittman will run about 70% of his routes against Donte Jackson (75% catch rate and 144.4 passer rating) and C.J. Henderson (78.1% catch rate and 119.7 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR2 with WR1 upside

Josh Downs man/zone splits (per Fantasy Points Data)

Josh Downs: Downs has been a pleasant surprise this season as the WR35 in fantasy. Downs has been a top-36 wide receiver in five of his last six games (WR32, WR18, WR30, WR4, WR29). He might not be the team’s leader against zone, but he has still performed well. He has an 18.6% target share, a 19.7% air-yard share, 2.10 YPRR, and an 18.5% first-read share against zone. In his last three games, Downs has four red zone targets. Downs will run about 83% of his routes against Troy Hill (63.6% catch rate and 56.8 passer rating). Downs picked up a knee injury this week. He was limited in practice on Thursday and Friday and has been listed as questionable. Week 9 Positional Value: WR3

Adam Thielen: Thielen is the WR7 in fantasy, ranking 17th in red zone targets. He is 11th in raw target volume, 14th in target share, and the WR10 in expected fantasy points per game. Indy has the third-highest rate of zone coverage (84.1%) in the NFL. Against zone, Thielen has a 21.8% target share, a 28.2% air-yard share, 1.93 YPRR, and a 30.7% first-read share. Thielen will run about 71% of his routes against Kenny Moore (77.5% catch rate and 84.5 passer rating). Indy has held slot receivers at bay with the seventh-lowest PPR points per target and only two receiving touchdowns. Week 9 Positional Value: WR2

Tight Ends

There are no fantasy viable tight ends in this game.

TEN vs. PIT | MIA vs. KC | LAR vs. GB | TB vs. HOU | CHI vs. NO | SEA vs. BAL | MIN vs. ATL | ARI vs. CLE | WAS vs. NE | IND vs. CAR | DAL vs. PHI | NYG vs. LV | BUF vs. CIN | LAC vs. NYJ

Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• PHI -3, O/U 46.5
• Cowboys vs. Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 5, Dallas has picked up the pace, ranking 15th in neutral pace while passing at the seventh-highest rate in close games.
• Philly has slowed things down as they have the sixth-slowest neutral pace and the fifth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott: Since Week 4, Prescott has been DEALING! Over his last four games, he is second in passing grade, third in yards per attempt, and sixth in fantasy points per dropback. Prescott has been locked in with the ninth-highest highly accurate throw rate. He has finished as the QB1 and QB3 in fantasy in his last two games. Since Week 4, the Eagles have been crushed through the air. They have allowed the ninth-highest passing yards per game, the seventh-most passing touchdowns, and the tenth-highest passer rating. Prescott is headed for another banner week. Week 9 Positional Value: QB1

Jalen Hurts: Hurts is the QB2 in fantasy. Hurts is ninth in passing grade, sixth in passing touchdowns, fourth in yards per attempt, and seventh in adjusted completion rate. Hurts is also fourth in play-action passing attempts, which will be huge against Dallas. The Cowboys have been eaten up by play-action passing this season, giving up the eighth-highest play-action yards per attempt and second-most play-action passing touchdowns. Without Trevon Diggs, Dallas has allowed the tenth-highest yards per attempt and the 12th-most passing touchdowns while ranking 14th in yards per attempt. Week 9 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Tony Pollard: Pollard’s season has made me immensely sad. The special sauce he had last year is gone. It has expired. He is the RB16 in fantasy, ranking eighth in snap share, 15th in opportunity share, eighth in weighted opportunities, and second in red zone touches. Among 65 qualifying backs, he ranks 33rd in explosive run rate and 47th in yards after contact per attempt. I didn’t have 2023 Pollard running like 2022 Ezekiel Elliott on my bingo card. It has been a tough scene. It won’t get any easier this week against an Eagles run defense that has the fourth-best stuff rate, the sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed, and the 12th-lowest yards per carry given up to gap runs (Pollard 64.8% gap). Week 9 Positional Value: RB2

D’Andre Swift: Swift is the RB13 in fantasy, ranking 17th in snap share, 18th in opportunity share, fourth in weighted opportunities, and 14th in red zone touches. Since Week 2, Swift has played at least 54% of the snaps weekly, averaging 20.5 touches and 100.4 total yards. Among 65 qualifying backs, Swift is 27th in explosive run rate and 38th in yards after contact per attempt. His pass game usage has helped a ton, as he is seventh in targets and 15th in target share (12.5%). Swift should run all over Dallas this week. Dallas is 13th in explosive run rate, 16th in stuff rate, and 11th in yards per carry allowed to zone runs (4.53). 72.6% of Swift’s runs have been on zone plays. Week 9 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb: Dallas finally gets it. Feed Lamb and good things happen. Thank you. Lamb is the WR10 in fantasy with a 24.5% target share, a 31.7% air-yard share, 2.85 YPRR, and a 26.9% first-read share. Lamb has seven red zone looks in his last five games. Lamb will run about 66% of his routes against Eli Ricks (45.5% catch rate and 53.9 passer rating) and Sydney Brown (71.4% catch rate and 126.2 passer rating). The Eagles have allowed the most receiving yards to slot receivers this season. Week 9 Positional Value: WR1

Brandin Cooks: Cooks saw his route run rate clipped to 64.5% in Week 8, as he could only muster an 8.3% target share. Cooks has been a letdown this season, as it looks like age has caught up to him. He has only been able to scratch together a 15.2% target share and 1.05 YPRR this season. Cooks is droppable. Week 9 Positional Value: Droppable

Michael Gallup: Gallup is also not playable after what happened in Week 8. Gallup garnered a 12.3% target share, but his route run rate declined sharply to 45.2% as he split time with Jalen Tolbert. Gallup is another veteran who has let us down this season with a 14.3% target share and 1.43 YPRR. He is the WR70 in fantasy. He hasn’t finished higher than WR66 over his last three games. Week 9 Positional Value: Droppable

A.J. Brown: Brown is the WR2 in fantasy as he is posting Madden video game numbers. Death, taxes, and Brown stealing souls on the gridiron. Absolute constants in life. Brown now has six straight games with at least 127 receiving yards. During this streak, he has finished no lower than WR13 in any week. The only hole in his usage has been in the red zone. He has only six red zone targets in his last six games, which include three games with zero looks inside the 20-yard line. Brown is second in deep targets. If Hurts dials up play-action this week to dismantle Dallas, Brown will be heavily involved as he leads the team with a 52.4% air-yard share on play-action passes. Brown will run about 78% of his routes against DaRon Bland (47.2% catch rate and 22.6 passer rating) and Stephon Gilmore (50% catch rate and 74.3 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR1

DeVonta Smith: Smith is the WR29 in fantasy, ranking 18th in deep targets. Smith, like Brown, has a red zone issue with only two red zone targets this season. Smith could be the primary beneficiary of a play-action heavy game plan against Dallas this week. He leads the team with a 25.3% target share and 1.99 YPRR on play-action passes (33.3% air-yard share). He is tied with Brown for the team lead with a 29.8% first-read share on play-action passes. Smith will run about 71% of his routes against DaRon Bland (47.2% catch rate and 22.6 passer rating) and Stephon Gilmore (50% catch rate and 74.3 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR2

Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson: In his last two games, Ferguson has an 82.3% route run rate. Overall, he has a 14.0% target share, 9.9% air-yard share, 1.42 YPRR, and a 16.3% first-read share. He is the TE14 in fantasy points per game, ranking second among tight ends in red zone targets. Philly is a neutral matchup for tight ends, ranking 16th in fantasy points per game and yards per reception allowed. Week 9 Positional Value: TE1

Dallas Goedert: Goedert is the TE9 in fantasy, ranking sixth in targets, 11th in target share, sixth in red zone targets, and 16th in YPRR. Goedert is the matchup chess piece for the Eagles this week. He leads the team in slot routes run (52.4% slot). Dallas has allowed the sixth-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Goedert could lead the team in targets this week. Week 9 Positional Value: TE1

TEN vs. PIT | MIA vs. KC | LAR vs. GB | TB vs. HOU | CHI vs. NO | SEA vs. BAL | MIN vs. ATL | ARI vs. CLE | WAS vs. NE | IND vs. CAR | DAL vs. PHI | NYG vs. LV | BUF vs. CIN | LAC vs. NYJ

New York Giants vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• LV -1.5, O/U 37
• Giants vs. Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• New York has the ninth-slowest neutral pace with the highest neutral rushing rate.
• Las Vegas is 12th in neutral pace and 16th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones: Jones returns this week. He is the QB28 in fantasy after looking dreadful to open the season. Jones is 27th in passing grade, 31st in yards per attempt, and eighth in turnover-worthy play rate. The lone bright spot has been his legs. He has retained the rushing equity ranking third in rushing yards per game and sixth in red zone carries per game. The problem with that, though, is how much do we see him run now, coming off the neck issue? I’m doubtful that it is at previous levels that we have witnessed in 2023. Jones should have time in the pocket against a defense ranking 21st in pressure rate. The Raiders have allowed teams to dink and dunk, which is Jones’s game. They have allowed the highest rate of passing yards via YAC in the NFL, with the third-highest adjusted completion rate allowed. Week 9 Positional Value: Low-ceiling QB2

Aidan O’Connell: In O’Connell’s one start, he completed 61.5% of his passes with 6.1 yards per attempt and a rushing score as the QB23 for the week. His 37.1 passing grade was ghastly, and his 6.3% turnover-worthy play rate was even worse. It’s a one-game sample, though, so take it with a grain of salt. The Giants have a decent pass defense, but nothing to freak out and pee your shorts about. They are 15th in yards per attempt, 18th in passer rating, and 21st in passing yards per game allowed. The biggest worry for O’Connell should be how to handle their blitz. New York blitzes at the second-highest rate in the league (43.1%) while ranking 14th in pressure rate. O’Connell performed well against the blitz in the preseason, completing 61.5% of his blitzed passes with an 11.3 aDOT and a 75% adjusted completion rate. Week 9 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley: Since Barkley’s return, he has been averaging 30.3 touches and 114.6 total yards. Yes, I typed that correctly. 30.3 touches per game. Barkley’s workload has been insane. While many teams have moved to committee backfields, the Giants know Barkley is the best chance at wins at this point. Among 65 qualifying backs, Barkley is 27th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. He has finished as the RB16, RB9, and RB13 over his last three games. He is second in snap share and opportunity share while ranking 12th in weighted opportunities. The Raiders have been a basement-level run defense all season. They have the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-lowest stuff rate, and the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Barkley will threaten to get 25-plus touches again in Week 9. Week 9 Positional Value: RB1

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs has been a volume RB2 this season. He is the RB17 in fantasy, ranking sixth in snap share, third in opportunity share, and first in weighted opportunities. He ranks in the top three among backs in carries, targets, and red zone touches. His inability to break tackles has been an eye sore all year. Among 65 qualifying backs, he ranks 51st in explosive run rate, 43rd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 60th in yards after contact per attempt. The Giants have been a run funnel all season, and losing Leonard Williams this week won’t change that. New York has given up the fifth-highest explosive run rate and the 13th-highest yards after contact per attempt while also having the third-lowest stuff rate. Week 9 Positional Value: RB1/2

Wide Receivers

Wan’Dale Robinson: Last week, Robinson played a season-high 80% of snaps, which was lost in the fact that he only drew one target. Since Week 4, Robinson has had a 15.9% target share with 1.16 YPRR and an 18.8% first-read share. He has only one red zone target and zero deep targets this season. Robinson will run about 81% of his routes against Nate Hobbs (80% catch rate and 102.2 passer rating). With Hobbs as the starting slot corner in Weeks 1-3, the Raiders allowed the seventh-highest PPR points per target and the third-highest passer rating to slot receivers. Week 9 Positional Value: PPR WR4

Davante Adams: Adams hopefully gets a quarterback upgrade this week, as insane as that sounds, but Jimmy Garoppolo has been terrible this season. Adams remains rocking a 29.4% target share, a 41.7% air-yard share, 2.14 YPRR, and a 41.5% first-read share. Adams has slipped to the WR19 in fantasy through no fault of his play. He leads all wide receivers in red zone targets and ranks tenth in deep targets. The Giants utilize man coverage at the second-highest rate (43.4%) in the NFL. Against man, Adams has a bonkers 38.5% target share, 47.9% air-yard share, 2.09 YPRR, and a 44.4% first-read share. Adams could see Deonte Banks (55.1% catch rate and 80.0 passer rating) for most of the day. He’ll line up opposite him on at least 55% of his routes this week. In previous weeks, Banks followed Garrett Wilson and D.K. Metcalf on 89-100% of their routes with varying returns. He held Metcalf to 34 receiving yards, but Wilson posted 100 receiving yards. Week 9 Positional Value: WR1

Jakobi Meyers: Meyers is the WR16 this season with a 23.9% target share, a 33.0% air-yard share, 1.79 YPRR, and a 29.4% first-read share. His numbers have suffered against man coverage as the offense has condensed around Adams. His air-yard share has dipped to 28% while his YPRR has been 1.43, and his first-read share has been 25%. If Adams is locked up with Banks, Meyers will spend the day matching up with Adoree Jackson (75% catch rate and 119.0 passer rating). Meyers ranks tenth in red zone targets among wide receivers, with five over his last four games. Week 9 Positional Value: WR3

Tight Ends

Darren Waller: Waller has been ruled out (hamstring). 

Michael Mayer: Last week, Mayer still had a solid route run rate of 75%. His playing time remains in the range that we could see top-12 production weekly, but the quarterback play and overall complexion of this offense have been so bad that it has hampered even Davante Adams. If Adams has been hurting, we can’t be surprised that the pain has trickled down to Mayer. Among 47 qualifying tight ends, Mayer still ranks 19th in receiving grade and third in YAC per reception. The talent is there. Mayer faces a defense that has allowed the second-highest yards per reception to tight ends, but they have also held the position to the lowest catch rate and the third-lowest fantasy points per game. Week 9 Positional Value: TE2/Sit

TEN vs. PIT | MIA vs. KC | LAR vs. GB | TB vs. HOU | CHI vs. NO | SEA vs. BAL | MIN vs. ATL | ARI vs. CLE | WAS vs. NE | IND vs. CAR | DAL vs. PHI | NYG vs. LV | BUF vs. CIN | LAC vs. NYJ