The Primer: Week 9 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints

• NO -8.5, O/U 41
• Bears vs. Saints Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Bears have the second-slowest neutral pace with the second-highest neutral rushing rate.
• The Saints continue to blaze a trail with the second-highest neutral pace and the tenth-highest neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Tyson Bagent: Among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, Bagent ranks 32nd in yards per attempt and 24th in fantasy points per dropback, but those numbers don’t tell the full tale. Bagent’s numbers as a passer could look wildly different if Velus Jones didn’t fall down in the end zone last week and if Darnell Mooney‘s long completion last week wasn’t blown dead. A better indicator of Bagent’s passing prowess is the fact that among the sample group, he is fifth in adjusted completion rate, highly accurate throw rate, and hero throw rate. Despite those glittering numbers, Bagent remains only a QB2 this week against a staunch Saints pass defense. New Orleans has held passers to the second-lowest yards per attempt, the lowest passer rating, and the lowest adjusted completion rate. New Orleans has given up the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Week 9 Positional Value: QB2

Derek Carr: Since Week 6, Carr has been showing some life for fantasy. Among 28 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 13th in yards per attempt, ninth in hero throw rate, and 11th in fantasy points per game. Across his last three games, he is second in passing attempts and passing yards per game. Carr looks headed for another QB1 performance this week. The Bears have bled out the tenth-highest yards per attempt, second-most passing touchdowns and the eighth-highest adjusted completion rate. Week 9 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Week 8

D’Onta Foreman: I didn’t see this coming last week. The Bears turned this backfield into a dreaded three-way committee, essentially crushing every running back’s value on this team. Foreman played 32% of the snaps with ten touches and 36 total yards. He didn’t even register a red zone touch despite leading the team in rushing attempts. Among 65 qualifying backs, he ranks 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 32nd in yards after contact per attempt. The Saints are a slightly below-average matchup for Foreman. They have the 13th-highest stuff rate while holding backs to the eighth-lowest yards per carry on zone runs (Foreman 60% zone). Week 9 Positional Value: RB3/4

Roschon Johnson: I expected Johnson to be the team’s primary passing down back. He led the team in routes run while trying for the lead in targets, so the thesis wasn’t wrong. The problem is that Darrynton Evans split this role with Johnson, which nuked his value. Johnson played 36% of the snaps with nine touches and 31 total yards. He did see an opportunity in the red zone, but Evans came away with the red zone touchdown. Among 65 qualifying backs, Johnson is 49th in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. Johnson is a low-end/deep league flex play only against a defense that has contained backs with the sixth-lowest fantasy points per game and the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game allowed. Week 9 Positional Value: RB3/4

Alvin Kamara: Kamara is the RB3 in fantasy points per game and RB1 in expected fantasy points per game. He is fifth in opportunity share, seventh in weighted opportunities, and 13th in red zone touches. Kamara also leads all running backs in targets despite only playing five games. His usage has been nothing short of mouth-watering, but his tackle-breaking has remained pedestrian. Among 65 qualifying backs, he is 34th in explosive run rate, 57th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 63rd in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Kamara will have a tough day on the ground, but he can make up that production through the air. Chicago has been a rush defense to avoid all season. They have held tight with the second-lowest explosive run rate and sixth-lowest yards per carry allowed to zone runs (Kamara 62.8% zone). Chicago has the second-best stuff rate as well. Kamara can pick apart the Bear’s zone defense this week through the air. Against zone, Kamara has a ridiculous 26.9% target share with 2.01 YPRR. Chicago has allowed the sixth-most receptions per game and the most receiving yards per game to running backs. Week 9 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

D.J. Moore: With Bagent under center, Moore has had a 22.7% target share, a 25.7% air-yard share, 1.68 YPRR, and a 31.8% first-read share. Moore is fifth in deep targets and 29th in red zone looks among wide receivers. Moore will run about 83% of his routes on the perimeter against Marshon Lattimore (56.8% catch rate and 76.1 passer rating) and Paulson Adebo (51.7% catch rate and 43.9 passer rating). New Orleans has allowed the lowest PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 9 Positional Value: WR3

Darnell Mooney: Mooney is a sneaky flex play this week. With Bagent, he has had a 12.1% target share, a 28.5% air-yard share, 1.28 YPRR, and a 15.9% first-read share. Mooney has only two red zone targets this season, so to pay off, he’ll likely need to break a big play, but that’s possible this week. The Saints have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards and the seventh-most receiving touchdowns (tied) to opposing slot receivers. Mooney will run about 73% of his routes against Alontae Taylor (66.7% catch rate and 100.5 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR5 with WR3 upside

Chris Olave: Olave has had a disappointing season. He’s the WR33 in fantasy points per game while ranking 18th in target share (25.3%), 14th in air-yard share (39.8%), and 17th in first-read share (32.2%). Olave is 56th in fantasy points per route run, but he is also 31st in expected fantasy points per route run. It’s been a season of miscommunications and flub-ups on big plays like last week’s game, where a ball bounced off his helmet. Olave ranks first among receivers in deep targets and 20th in red zone targets (three red zone targets across his last two games). Olave is due for a big game, and he could pop off here against a Bears secondary that is tenth in yards per attempt and 14th in deep adjusted completion rate. Chicago has utilized zone coverage on 74.1% of their defensive snaps. Against zone, Olave’s air-yard share has increased to 42.6%. Olave will run about 63% of his routes against Tyrique Stevenson (72% catch rate and 125.6 passer rating) and Kyler Gordon (85.7% catch rate and 99.4 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR2

Rashid Shaheed: Shaheed has been the Saints’ zone-beating deep threat. Against zone, he has had an 11.8% target share (17.3 aDOT), a 25.2% air-yard share, 2.30 YPRR, and a 12.6% first-read share. He leads the team with 0.44 fantasy points per route run against zone, but he’s second to Olave in expected fantasy points per game (0.46 vs. 0.30). Shaheed is fourth in deep targets, but he has only one red zone target since Week 2. Shaheed will run nearly half of his routes against Kyler Gordon (85.7% catch rate and 99.4 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR4 with WR2/3 upside

Michael Thomas man/zone splits (per Fantasy Points Data)

Michael Thomas: Thomas’ man versus zone splits have been eye-opening all season. Looking at the Bears’ coverage usage, this is the spot to sit Thomas. Chicago is tied for the 11th-highest zone coverage rate this season (74.1%). Even if you look since Week 6, the Bears have the sixth-lowest usage of zone coverage, but that still is good for 62.5% of their defensive snaps. Against zone, Thomas’ numbers have sharply declined, with a 14.8% target share, a 17.9% air-yard share, and an 18.5% first-read share. Thomas will run about 71% of his routes against Tyrique Stevenson (72% catch rate and 125.6 passer rating) and Jaylon Johnson (42.3% catch rate and 37.3 passer rating). In Week 7, Johnson followed Jakobi Meyers on 65% of his routes, holding him to 31 scoreless receiving yards. Johnson may follow Thomas this week. Week 9 Positional Value: WR4

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet: With Bagent under center, Kmet has had a 15.2% target share, a 16.7% air-yard share, 1.72 YPRR, and an 18.2% first read share. The Saints are a team I don’t want to test with tight ends in fantasy. New Orleans has held tight ends to the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-lowest receiving yards per game. Week 9 Positional Value: TE2

Taysom Hill: Hill remains an integral part of this offense with 44-60% of the snaps played over the last three weeks. Between rushing and receiving, he has averaged nine touches and 65.4 total yards per game since Week 6 while also kicking in 16 passing yards per game. Overall, this season, he is the TE14 in fantasy points per game, but since Week 6, he is the TE2 behind only Travis Kelce. Week 9 Positional Value: TE1

TEN vs. PIT | MIA vs. KC | LAR vs. GB | TB vs. HOU | CHI vs. NO | SEA vs. BAL | MIN vs. ATL | ARI vs. CLE | WAS vs. NE | IND vs. CAR | DAL vs. PHI | NYG vs. LV | BUF vs. CIN | LAC vs. NYJ

Seattle Seahawks vs. Baltimore Ravens

• BAL -6, O/U 44
• Seahawks vs. Ravens Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Baltimore lives and dies by the run. They are 23rd in neutral pace with the third-highest neutral rush rate and second-highest red zone rushing rate.
• Seattle remains a fast-paced, pass-centric team, ranking tenth in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith: Smith is the QB21 in fantasy points per game with only one QB1 week this season. Smith ranks 14th in yards per attempt, 21st in highly accurate throw rate, and 18th in fantasy points per dropback. Smith won’t reverse his QB2 ways this week against one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Baltimore has stonewalled quarterbacks with the lowest yards per attempt, second-fewest passing touchdowns, and the fourth-lowest adjusted completion rate allowed. Baltimore has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Week 9 Positional Value: Low-end QB2

Lamar Jackson: Jackson is the QB5 in fantasy with five weekly finishes as the QB10 or higher. Jackson has been excellent as a passer this season. He is third in passing grade and highly accurate throw rate while leading the NFL in hero throw rate. Jackson is second to only Josh Allen in fantasy points per dropback. This week he faces possibly his toughest test of the 2023 season thus far. Since Week 4, Seattle has been one of the league’s elite pass defenses. They have allowed the third-lowest yards per attempt, fourth-lowest passer rating, and the second-fewest fantasy points passing. Only the New York Jets have given up fewer fantasy points through the air. Week 9 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Week 8

Kenneth Walker: Walker dealt with a calf issue last week before logging a “full practice” on Friday. Walker didn’t have an injury designation entering Week 8, but it clearly played a role in his playing time. Last week was a season-low in snap share. Previously, his snap share hadn’t dropped below 51%. Walker finished with nine touches and 70 total yards. Walker has practiced in full all week and hasn’t been on the injury report. I’m not buying that his calf is 100% this week, but we could see him take back his lead role if he is healthier than in Week 8. Among 65 qualifying backs, Walker is 14th in explosive run rate, 17th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 21st in yards after contact per attempt. While a matchup against the Raven’s secondary is nightmare fuel, it’s possible to run against this defense. Baltimore has allowed the tenth-highest missed tackles per attempt while sitting at 16th in yards after contact per attempt. The Ravens permit the ninth-highest yards before contact per attempt. Week 9 Positional Value: Borderline RB1

Zach Charbonnet: Last week, Charbonnet led the backfield with 59% of the snaps played with seven touches and 64 total yards. I do think a lot of that was related to Walker’s injury. We could see the snap share lean back toward Walker this week. Charbonnet is a monster, and he’s proving that already. Among 65 qualifying backs, he ranks third in explosive run rate, 19th in missed tackles forced, and ninth in yards after contact per attempt. In Weeks 1-6, Charbonnet averaged 5.8 touches and 29 total yards. I think his workload is probably a touch higher this week, but there’s a risk that he falls back into the clear backup role. Week 9 Positional Value: Borderline RB3

Gus Edwards: Edwards had a week to remember with 21 touches, 94 total yards, and three scores. Since Week 2, Edwards has averaged 14.8 touches and 71.6 total yards. Among 65 qualifying backs, Edwards ranks 32nd in explosive run rate, 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 44th in yards after contact per attempt. Edwards is outside the top 30 backs in snap share, opportunity share, and weighted opportunities as he shares the work with Justice Hill. Edwards owns the red zone work now, though, with 13 touches inside the 20 over the last three games (Hill four). Don’t expect the Gus Bus to come close to last week’s numbers against Seattle. Seattle has been a terrible matchup for backs as they have the eighth-highest stuff rate, ninth-lowest missed tackles allowed per attempt, and the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Week 9 Positional Value: Low-end RB3

Justice Hill: Hill has taken a backseat to Edwards. He has seen his red zone work dry up. Since Week 5, Hill has averaged 8.8 touches and 45.8 total yards (one touchdown). Among 65 qualifying backs, Hill is 53rd in yards after contact per attempt. Hill is better left on your bench this week, even in deeper formats. Seattle has given up the eighth-lowest rushing yards per game and the fifth-lowest yards per carry to gap runs (Hill 55.6% gap). Week 9 Positional Value: Sit

Wide Receivers

D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf is the WR27 in fantasy earning a 22.2% target share, a 40.6% air-yard share, 2.23 YPRR, and a 31.1% first-read share. Baltimore utilizes zone on 69.8% of their defensive snaps. Against zone, Metcalf’s target share dwindles to 18.4% while his air-yard share drops to 33.1% and his first read share sits at 25.6%. Metcalf is 20th among wide receivers in red zone targets. Baltimore has been shutting down perimeter wide receivers all year giving up the second-fewest PPR points per target. Metcalf will run about 84% of his routes against Brandon Stephens (62.5% catch rate and 68.4 passer rating) and Marlon Humphrey (72.7% catch rate and 122.9 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR3

Tyler Lockett: Lockett had lingering health questions all last week before dispelling all of them on Sunday. He played his third-highest snap share of the season (84%) with an 86% route run rate, a 24.3% target share, a 31.5% air-yard share, and a 2.45 YPRR. Overall, Lockett has a 20.8% target share, a 33.7% air-yard share, 1.72 YPRR, and a 24.1% first-read share. Baltimore has utilized zone coverage on nearly 70% of their defensive snaps. Against zone, he leads the team with a 20.7% target share and a 35.4% air-yard share. His YPRR remains strong at 1.82, and his first-read share is 25.5% (Metcalf 25.6%). Baltimore also ranks seventh in two-high looks this season. Against two-high, Lockett leads the team with a 20.2% target share and a 46% air-yard share (in the six games Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and D.K. Metcalf have all played). Lockett is 17th among wide receivers in red zone targets. Lockett will run about 63% of his routes against Brandon Stephens (62.5% catch rate and 68.4 passer rating) and Marlon Humphrey (72.7% catch rate and 122.9 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR2/3

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: With Lockett and Metcalf in the lineup, Smith-Njigba returned to his low aDOT slot role. He ran 79% of his routes from the slot with a 0.8 aDOt, which is sickening. His 63.2% route run rate and 10.8% target share were ugly as well. Smith-Njigba is a player to bench until further notice because his role with both of these receivers active is maddening and lacks any upside. Week 9 Positional Value: Must Sit

Zay Flowers: Well, so much for Zay Flowers week in Week 8. That clearly didn’t work out, but this week brings a new matchup. Flowers has a 26.3% target share, a 27.5% air yard share, 180 YPRR, and a 29.9% first-read share. Seattle has the highest zone coverage rate (84.9%) in the NFL. Against zone, Flowers’ air-yard share has bumped to 30.3% while his YPRR (2.02) and his first-read share (32.7%) have also increased. If we delve even further into the coverage data, Seattle has the sixth-highest rate of Cover 3 in the NFL (40.5%). Against Cover 3, Flowers has a 31.2% target share, a 42.9% air-yard share, 2.88 YPRR, and a 39.3% first-read share. Flowers is tenth in deep targets and 17th in red zone targets among wide receivers. Flowers will run about 69% of his routes against Devon Witherspoon (42.9% catch rate and 53.2 passer rating) and Tariq Woolen (66.7% catch rate and 93.1 passer rating). Since Week 4, Seattle has allowed the fifth-lowest PPR points per target. If Flowers can overcome the difficult matchup, he could be fed volume this week. Week 9 Positional Value: WR2/3

Tight Ends

SEA TEs: Seattle’s tight end situation remains a three-way split for snaps and routes, with none of them surpassing a 43% route run rate. Baltimore isn’t the matchup to chase a thin, tight-end play with. The Ravens have allowed the fourth-lowest fantasy points per game and only one score to tight ends.

Mark Andrews: Andrews is the TE2 in fantasy. Among 44 qualifying tight ends, he is fourth in target share, sixth in air-yard share, sixth in YPRR, and fifth in first-read share. The Seahawks love Cover 3 (40.5% of their defensive snaps). Against Cover 3, Andrews is second on the team in target share and first-read share behind only Flowers. Seattle has faced the fifth-fewest tight end targets this season, but they have allowed the sixth-highest yards per reception to the position. Seattle is 21st in DVOA against tight ends. Week 9 Positional Value: TE1

TEN vs. PIT | MIA vs. KC | LAR vs. GB | TB vs. HOU | CHI vs. NO | SEA vs. BAL | MIN vs. ATL | ARI vs. CLE | WAS vs. NE | IND vs. CAR | DAL vs. PHI | NYG vs. LV | BUF vs. CIN | LAC vs. NYJ

Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons

• MIN -5, O/U 37
• Vikings vs. Falcons Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Falcons are ninth in neutral pace with the seventh-highest neutral rushing rate.
• The Vikings are fifth in neutral pace with the highest neutral passing rate in the NFL. I doubt we see them move quickly or throw that aggressively with Jaren Hall under center in Week 9.

Quarterbacks

Jaren Hall: Hall can create explosive plays, but his accuracy issues and inconsistent ball placement caused him to slip in the NFL Draft. These warts in his prospect profile showed up in the preseason this year. Among 28 qualifying preseason passers, he was 23rd in passing grade, 22nd in yards per attempt, 18th in adjusted completion rate, and 25th in aDOT. After Atlanta fell on their collective face against Will Levis last week, I expect this pass defense to show up this week. The Falcons have softened, though, as the season has rolled along. They have yielded the sixth-lowest yards per attempt while ranking 16th in adjusted completion rate, but they have given up the tenth-highest passer rating and the fifth-most passing touchdowns. Week 9 Positional Value: QB2

For redraft folks that are unfamiliar with Hall, below is my prospect writeup for him that I penned this offseason.

• 2022 (minimum 150 dropbacks)
  • PFF passing grade: 20th
  • Adjusted completion rate: 25th
  • Yards per attempt: 26th
  • Big-time throw rate: 37th

• Deep passing (minimum 20 deep passing attempts)
  • Adjusted completion rate: 3rd
  • Deep throw rate: 68th

Scouting report:

• Bouncy feet in some clean pockets. His footwork can lapse on short timing throws or when pressured. This leads to accuracy wanes.
• Inconsistent touch on passes. He will lace a perfect ball to the boundary on one play and then follow it up with a sideline throw that could have used a tad more mustard or a short pass that’s fastballed to his receiver.
• When he’s in rhythm, Hall can put some special throws on tape. Easy velocity. A strong arm that can also lead him to attempt some tight window throws he shouldn’t.
• Rushing upside should be there for Hall in the NFL. Good burst and lateral agility in the open field. A playmaker with the ball in his hands.

Taylor Heinicke: Heinicke has looked good in limited duty for Atlanta, with 8.3 yards per attempt, a 79.1 passing grade, and a 76.5% adjusted completion rate. It’s a small sample, and we have a much larger body of work of Heinicke being a high-end backup and below-average starter when he has been thrust into the position. The biggest question for Heinicke this week will revolve around how he handles the blitz. If last season’s body of work is any indicator, he should fare well. Minnesota blitzes at the highest rate in the league (52.7%) while ranking 20th in pressure rate. Last season, Heinicke (among 42 qualifying quarterbacks) was seventh in yards per attempt, eighth in adjusted completion rate, and fourth in big-time throw rate against the blitz. Since Week 5, this Vikings pass defense has solidified, allowing the 11th-lowest yards per attempt, the 12th-lowest passer rating, and the 12th-fewest fantasy points via passing. Week 9 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Alexander Mattison: Mattison’s playing time has bounced around over the last three weeks, with 53-79% of the snaps played weekly. He has averaged 15.9 touches and 62.4 total yards this season. Among 65 qualifying backs, he is 40th in explosive run rate and 48th in yards after contact per attempt. Atlanta has been a nasty assignment for running backs this season. The Falcons have the seventh-highest stuff rate while holding tight with the 11th-lowest explosive run rate and tenth-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (Mattison 63.2% zone). Week 9 Positional Value: RB3/flex

Cam Akers: Akers looks like he has been pigeonholed into a backup role after it looked like he could possibly unseat Mattison. Last week, he played only 24% of the snaps with ten touches and 25 total yards. He saved his day with a touchdown. Since joining the Vikings (among 49 qualifying backs), he ranks 27th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 26th in yards after contact per attempt. In a tough matchup, keep Akers on the bench. Week 9 Positional Value: Sit

Bijan Robinson: Robinson has played 74% and 77% of the snaps since Week 6 if we forget about the headache gate game. He averaged 14.5 touches and 71 total yards. Since Week 4, Robinson remains one of the most explosive backs in the game, ranking 14th in explosive run rate, tenth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. Minnesota has been a run-stopping behemoth all season, but zooming in some since Week 4, they have given up the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the 13th-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 9 Positional Value: RB1/2

Tyler Allgeier: Allgeier’s playing time has been abysmal in two of the last three games. In those two games, he has averaged 25% of the snaps with 10.5 rushing attempts and 41 rushing yards. Since Week 4, Allgeier has slowed down. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranks 43rd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 40th in yards after contact per attempt with zero explosive runs. Allgeier needs to stay on the bench this week in a tough rushing matchup. Minnesota has allowed the ninth-lowest rushing yards per game and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game. Week 9 Positional Value: Sit

Wide Receivers

Jordan Addison: Without Justin Jefferson in the lineup, Addison has been the WR6 in fantasy with a 20.7% target share, a 34.9% air-yard share, 2.53 YPRR, and a 27.4% first-read share. Addison has seven red zone targets over his last three games. Addison will get shadowed by A.J. Terrell (63.6% catch rate and 112.3 passer rating), but that’s honestly a good thing. Terrell has been torched lately. Terrell has followed receivers on at least 50% of their routes eight times this season. Three receivers have surpassed 60 receiving yards in his primary coverage with three scores. Week 9 Positional Value: WR2/3

K.J. Osborn: Without Jefferson in the lineups, Osborn has an 18.9% target share, a 24.7% air-yard share, 2.02 YPRR, and a 21.9% first-read share. If Terrell is in Addison’s back pocket, then Osborn should tangle with Jeff Okudah (40% catch rate and 52.5 passer rating) all day. I doubt Hall’s ability to support multiple pass catchers. Osborn is the third or fourth option in this passing attack. With Hall and the tough corner matchup, it’s a good week to sit Osborn. Week 9 Positional Value: Sit

Drake London: London has been ruled out (groin). 

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson: Without Jefferson in the lineup, Hockenson has been a target-gobbling monster with a 26.1% target share, a 29.7% air-yard share, 2.55 YPRR, and a 28.8% first-read share. Hockenson is the TE3 in fantasy, with TE7, TE4, and TE3 finishes without Jefferson. Hockenson is fourth in red zone targets among tight ends. The Falcons are a neutral matchup for Hockenson, ranking 15th in receiving yards per game allowed with the seventh-lowest yards per reception permitted. Hockenson’s biggest worry isn’t the Falcons but receiving catchable targets from Hall this week. Hopefully, volume can outkick the efficiency drop. Week 9 Positional Value: TE1

Kyle Pitts: Pitts should be the WR1 for Atlanta this week with London out. He is the TE15 in fantasy with a 17.5% target share, a 26.5% air-yard share, 1.49 YPRR, and a 19.3% first-read share (second on the team). Pitts faces a secondary that has allowed the tenth-highest PPR points per target and the eighth-most receiving yards to the slot (Pitts 59.6% slot). Week 9 Positional Value: TE1

Jonnu Smith: Smith could be the same London bump if the start receiver can’t go in Week 9. Smith has a 13.3% target share, an 11.1% air-yard share (6.3 aDOT), 1.80 YPRR, and a 16.1% first-read share (third on the team). 50.9% of Smith’s receiving yardage has come after the catch. Minnesota is 18th in YAC per reception allowed, so this isn’t a smash matchup for Smith’s YAC prowess. Smith does run 62% of his routes from the slot, though. Minnesota has allowed the tenth-highest PPR points per target and the eighth-most receiving yards to the slot. Week 9 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

TEN vs. PIT | MIA vs. KC | LAR vs. GB | TB vs. HOU | CHI vs. NO | SEA vs. BAL | MIN vs. ATL | ARI vs. CLE | WAS vs. NE | IND vs. CAR | DAL vs. PHI | NYG vs. LV | BUF vs. CIN | LAC vs. NYJ

Arizona Cardinals vs. Cleveland Browns

• CLE -8, O/U 37.5
• Cardinals vs. Browns Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Toss out the previous pace marks for Arizona this week with Clayton Tune under center. The Cardinals are 13th in neutral rushing rate this season, and that number could go higher this week to protect their rookie quarterback.
• Cleveland has the 13th-slowest neutral pace with the third-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Clayton Tune: Tune was not impressive in the preseason. Among 28 qualifying quarterbacks, he was 17th in passing grade, 18th in yards per attempt, and 21st in adjusted completion rate. I was not impressed with him as a prospect. After reviewing his collegiate film and stats, he could develop into a Case Keenum stop-gap game manager and career backup if everything broke right. The Browns’ defense has had some recent hiccups, but this remains a secondary that has allowed the eighth-lowest yards per attempt, fifth-lowest passer rating, and the sixth-lowest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Week 9 Positional Value: Low-end QB2

For those redraft warriors unfamiliar with Tune. Here is an excerpt from the Senior Bowl Primer regarding Tune.

Stats:

• 2022 (143 QBs, minimum 150 dropbacks)
  • PFF passing grade: 1st
  • Adjusted completion rate: 4th
  • Yards per attempt: 34th
  • Big-time throw rate: 31st

• Deep passing (148 QBs, minimum 20 deep passing attempts)
  • Adjusted completion rate: 30th
  • Deep throw rate: 77th (15.1%)

Scouting report:

• Adequate zip on short and intermediate throws. Rainbows deep throws. His average arm strength shows up past 15-20 yards.
• Good pocket presence overall. Tune is not a massive rushing threat, but he does display good pocket mobility. He can buy time for his receivers to uncover. He will drift some against pressure, though.
• Tune was not asked to make full-field reads at Houston. He tends to force throws to his predetermined first read.

Deshaun Watson: Watson is expected to start this week. Watson has finished as a top-ten fantasy quarterback in two of his three full games played this season (QB5, QB10). Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks in Weeks 1-3, Watson ranked 17th in passing grade, 19th in yards per attempt, and 19th in adjusted completion rate. Watson returns to a matchup that he should smash. Arizona has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game, the fourth-highest yards per attempt, and the third-highest passer rating to quarterbacks. Week 9 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Running Backs

Week 8

Jerome Ford: Ford practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday and Thursday (ankle). Last week, he miraculously played despite the ankle issue. The backfield dissolved into a three-headed committee, which is nightmare fuel for fantasy. This could easily be the case again this week. Last week, Ford played 33% of the snaps with ten touches and 39 total yards. Ford didn’t look like his usual explosive self, as he had an 11% missed tackles forced per attempt rate and 2.56 yards after contact per attempt. Ford didn’t manage any work in the red zone. With the limited workload, if his touchdown equity is zero near the goal line, he’s a sit until he gets healthy. Week 9 Positional Value: Sit

Kareem Hunt: Hunt essentially played the same role that he has been playing as the excess snaps went to Strong. Hunt played 35% of the snaps with 15 touches and 67 total yards. Since Week 6, he has averaged 13.3 touches and 56.3 total yards. Among 65 qualifying backs, Hunt ranks 61st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 57th in yards after contact per attempt. He has proven by coming back this season that he’s past his prime. Arizona is a fantastic matchup for backs that could help elevate Hunt’s ailing efficiency stats. Arizona has the second-lowest stuff rate while giving up the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 9 Positional Value: RB3

Pierre Strong: My fever dream this week would be that Strong is given the keys to the castle, but it won’t happen. Last week, he played 31% of the snaps with 11 touches and 82 total yards. Strong has been a personal fav for a while. When he was an NFL draft prospect, I had him ranked as the RB3 in that class before the draft. Among 65 qualifying backs, he is 36th in explosive run rate and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. The Cardinals have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs and the 12th-highest success rate to gap runs (Strong 58% gap). Week 9 Positional Value: RB3/4

Emari Demercado: Demercado has been ruled out (toe).

Keaontay Ingram: With Demercado out, Ingram will be the starter and could be a bell cow this week. Tony Jones is the only other back on this roster. Ingram is what I call a “spinning top” running back. He can break tackles but lacks the extra juice to do much after he has shed the defender. Among 75 qualifying backs, he ranks fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt, but he is 54th in yards after contact per attempt and has zero explosive runs. The good thing for Ingram is that he runs behind one of the best run-blocking lines in the NFL. Arizona is second in yards before contact per attempt and open field yards. The Browns are an amazing matchup on the ground for Ingram. They have allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the highest missed tackles per attempt rate, and the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 9 Positional Value: RB2/3

Wide Receivers

Marquise Brown: Brown is the WR26 in fantasy, drawing a 25.5% target share, a 39.7% air-yard share, and producing 1.61 YPRR. Brown has a 30.1% first-read share. He has five weeks this season as a WR24 or higher. Cleveland has the highest man coverage rate (43.6%) in the NFL. Against man, Brown’s numbers have been crazy, with a 38.1% target share, a 62.7% air-yard share, 2.32 YPRR, and a 37.5% first-read share. Brown ranks tenth in deep targets and 17th in red zone looks this season among wide receivers. Brown will run about 80% of his routes against Martin Emerson (since Week 4: 47.6% catch rate and 43.8 passer rating) and Denzel Ward (since Week 4: 57.9% catch rate and 103.6 passer rating). Against the man coverage heavy Giants and Cowboys this season, Brown averaged 57.5 receiving yards with touchdowns in both games. Week 9 Positional Value: Volume WR3

Michael Wilson: Wilson has been listed as questionable, but he is closer to doubtful. He hasn’t practiced all week (shoulder). In a brutal matchup, even if he’s active, sit Wilson. Week 9 Positional Value: Sit

Amari Cooper: Cooper is the WR39 in fantasy, garnering a 23.2% target share, a 43.1% air-yard share, and a 30.9% first-read share (2.10 YPRR). Arizona has the tenth-highest rate of zone coverage this season (75.3%). Against zone, Cooper’s air-yard share has increased to 45.3%, but his fantasy points per route run have slightly dipped from 0.37 to 0.33. His numbers have stayed pretty consistent, so I’m not worried about his ability to produce against zone. Arizona has allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers and the eighth-most receiving touchdowns (tied). Week 9 Positional Value: Volume WR2/3

Elijah Moore: Moore has a 19.1% target share, 19.8% air-yard share, 1.09 YPRR, and an 18.8% first read share. The sad thing is that he has done next to nothing with the volume as the WR63 in fantasy this season. He has only four red zone targets and zero receiving touchdowns. Moore has finished no higher than WR37 in any game this season. I know the matchup is amazing this week, but I’d rather bet that Cedric Tillman blows up in his first game as a starter than bank on Moore finding his rookie season fountain of youth in Week 9. Week 9 Positional Value: Droppable

Cedric Tillman: Tillman isn’t a bad stash at this point in the season, especially on an offense where a competent WR2 has yet to emerge. I can’t start him this week, though, without any idea regarding his snap share. The Browns could easily still involve Marquise Goodwin and David Bell enough to limit Tillman to a 50% route run rate. Week 9 Positional Value: Low-end stash

Tight Ends

Trey McBride: McBride blew up last week with an 87.8% route run rate, a 37.8% target share, 2.64 YPRR, and a 46.4% FIRST READ SHARE. My jaw dropped when I read that first-read share. McBride’s talent is real. He is fifth in receiving grade and second in YPRR, behind only Travis Kelce. Against man coverage, he has a 30% target per route run rate and 2.04 YPRR. The Browns have played two elite tight ends this season. George Kittle had a 2.8% pass block rate against Cleveland, but he only produced one receiving yard on one reception (two targets). Mark Andrews, on the other hand, roasted them for 80 receiving yards and two scores. McBride just cooked the Ravens secondary with his monster Week 8 outing, and they had been lockdown against tight ends. I won’t make the bet that he can’t do it this week against the Browns. Week 9 Positional Value: TE1

David Njoku: Over the last two weeks, the Browns have finally realized that Njoku deserves more work. He was left out in the cold in the first six weeks of the season. Over the last two weeks, he has awakened with a 23.2% target share, 2.22 YPRR, and a 21.3% first-read share. Njoku has five red zone targets over the last two games. Arizona has allowed the fourth-highest yards per reception to tight ends and the third-highest rate of two-high (60.7%). Against two-high, Njoku is second on the team with an 18.8% target share and 17.6% first-read share. Week 9 Positional Value: TE1

TEN vs. PIT | MIA vs. KC | LAR vs. GB | TB vs. HOU | CHI vs. NO | SEA vs. BAL | MIN vs. ATL | ARI vs. CLE | WAS vs. NE | IND vs. CAR | DAL vs. PHI | NYG vs. LV | BUF vs. CIN | LAC vs. NYJ