The Primer: Week 12 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders

KC -9, O/U 43
Chiefs vs. Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 6, the Chiefs have ranked 14th in neutral pace and fifth in neutral passing rate.
With Antonio Pierce calling the shots, the Raiders have ranked 20th in neutral pace and 13th in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes remains the QB5 in fantasy points per game, but the Chiefs offense has been sputtering lately. Mahomes has not finished as a QB1 or surpassed 250 passing yards since Week 7. In his last three starts, he has finished as the QB31, QB13, and QB15 in fantasy. Mahomes has not been the problem with this offense, ranking 12th in passer rating and sixth in CPOE and highly accurate throw rate. The Raiders’ pass defense numbers have been a facade over the last few weeks as they played a laundry list of backup-level quarterbacks. Tua Tagovailoa proved this theory last week by completing 71.8% of his passes with 8.3 yards per attempt and two scores. If Mahomes’ pass catchers can get their act together, Mahomes should return to the QB1 ranks this week. Week 12 Positional Value: QB1

Aidan O’Connell: O’Connell has not finished higher than QB21 in any start this season, and I don’t see that changing in Week 12. In four of five games played, he has not surpassed 6.6 yards per attempt, and he hasn’t had a single game with multiple passing touchdowns this season. Kansas City’s vaunted pass defense should have no issues shutting down the Las Vegas aerial attack. The Chiefs have allowed the second-lowest yards per attempt, the seventh-fewest passing touchdowns, and the eighth-lowest CPOE. Week 12 Positional Value: Sit

Running Backs

Isiah Pacheco: With Jerick McKinnon being ruled out, Pacheco could play a bell-cow role this week against the Raiders. Pacheco has not played more than 68% of the snaps in any game this season, but we could see that this week. Pacheco has averaged 17.2 touches and 80.3 total yards this season. He has four games this season with at least four targets, and he should have a fifth after Week 12. Pachecho ranks 12th in explosive run rate and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. He will find tough sledding this week against a Raiders run defense that, since Week 6, has ranked 15th in explosive run rate with the fourth-lowest missed tackles per attempt and the 12th-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 12 Positional Value: RB1/2

Josh Jacobs: With Pierce calling the shots, Jacobs has been a near lock for 20 touches, but his pass game role has dried up to nothing. Over the last three games, Jacobs has averaged 23.3 touches and 92 total yards, but he has only one game with more than one target (two targets in Week 10). Jacobs also remains one of the most inefficient backs in the NFL. Among 50 qualifying backs, he is 40th in explosive run rate, 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 46th in yards after contact per attempt. The Chiefs’ run defense has been their Achilles heel all season. Since Week 6, they have ranked 11th in explosive run rate and seventh in yards after contact per attempt allowed while also having the fourth-lowest stuff rate. Jacobs should get 20-plus carries this week in a good matchup. Week 12 Positional Value: RB2

Wide Receivers

Rashee Rice: Since Week 6, the Raiders have had the third-highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL (81.4%). Since Week 7, Rice has had a 52.3% route run rate, an 11.3% target share, 19% target per route run rate, 2.21 YPRR, and an 18.2% first read share against zone. Kansas City seems married to their horrible wide receiver committee approach (because it has worked so well, lol), so don’t expect Rice to see more than a 50-60% route run rate this week. Rice will run about 57% of his routes against Tyler Hall (77.8% catch rate and 87.5 passer rating). Week 12 Positional Value: WR4 with WR2/3 upside

Justin Watson: Last week Watson had a 54% route run rate as he soaked up a 25.6% target share, 47.3% air-yard share, and a 26.1% first-read share with 1.96 YPRR. The Chiefs felt comfortable feeding him last week and could roll that back this week. Watson was the WR16 in fantasy last week. He has a red zone target in each of his last two games. Since Week 6, the Raiders have had the third-highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL (81.4%). Since Week 7, Watson has led the receiver room with a 14.5% target share and a 38.3% air-yard share against zone with a 24% target per route run rate and 1.82 YPRR (second to only Rashee Rice). Watson will run about 71% of his routes against Marcus Peters (70.2% catch rate and 102.1 passer rating) and Nate Hobbs (76.5% catch rate and 91.6 passer rating). Week 12 Positional Value: WR4 with WR2/3 upside

Davante Adams: In O’Connell’s four starts, Adams has had a 32.6% target share, a 51.8% air-yard share, 2.15 YPRR, and a 40.7% first-read share. Adams has finished as the WR19, WR45, WR21, and WR8 in weekly fantasy scoring. Adams has seven red zone targets in those four games. Adams will likely see L’Jarius Sneed on at least half of his routes this week. Sneed has followed receivers on at least 54.3% of their routes six times this season. He has not allowed any receiver to surpass 50 receiving yards or score a touchdown in his primary coverage in those games. Adams remains one of the best receivers in the game, but Sneed has shut down the likes of Calvin Ridley, A.J. Brown, D.J. Moore, Justin Jefferson, and Garrett Wilson. Don’t discount how amazing Sneed has been. Week 12 Positional Value: WR2/3

Jakobi Meyers: In O’Connell’s four starts, Meyers has had a 12.1% target share and 15.5% air-yard share while producing 1.28 YPRR and averaging 35.3 receiving yards per game. He has been droppable. The passing volume has been sucked out of this offense, and Adams draws nearly all of the target volume oxygen from the room weekly. Week 12 Positional Value: Droppable

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: Kelce remains the TE1 in fantasy, ranking sixth in deep targets and second in red zone looks. He has handled a 23.3% target share, a 23.5% air-yard share, and a 27.4% first-read share with 2.45 YPRR. Since Week 6, the Raiders have had the third-highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL (81.4%). Against zone, his target share rises to 24.7%, and his first-read share shoots up to 29.2%. If you have Kelce, you are starting him. Week 12 Positional Value: TE1

Michael Mayer: Mayer’s potential has been crushed in this run-first offense. He hasn’t seen more than five targets in any game with O’Connell under center. He has surpassed 50 receiving yards only once this season (Week 6). At this juncture, he is a low-end TE2 that can be dropped. Week 12 Positional Value: Droppable

Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles

PHI -3, O/U 48.5
Bills vs. Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 6, Buffalo has picked the pace back up in close games (13th), but their neutral passing rate has dropped to 15th.
Over their last five games, the Eagles have the ninth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 19th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen: Allen remains the QB1 in fantasy points per game. He ranks eighth in yards per attempt, ninth in passer rating, and tenth in adjusted completion rate. We’ve seen his rushing uptick recently, with two of his three games this season with 40 or more rushing yards occurring since Week 8. While the rushing yards have trended down this season, Allen still maintains a goal-line presence with the second-most rushing touchdowns and sixth-most red zone carries per game this season among quarterbacks. Allen should have a nice game against a Philly secondary that, since Week 6, has looked vulnerable. Over their last five games, Philly has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game and third-most passing touchdowns while also giving up the ninth-highest CPOE and 11th-highest adjusted completion rate. Week 12 Positional Value: QB1

Jalen Hurts: Hurts continues to nip at Allen’s heels as the QB2 in fantasy points per game. Hurts continues to coffin every person who ever doubted him as a passer. This season, he ranks sixth in yards per attempt, 11th in passer rating, third in CPOE, and fourth in highly accurate throw rate. Like with Allen, Hurts’ rushing floor has remained intact, but the rushing yardage ceiling has been much lower this season. He has only two games with more than 40 rushing yards, while his goal-line role hasn’t changed. Hurts is first in red zone carries and rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. Since Week 6, the Bills haven’t been an imposing pass defense, allowing the sixth-most passing touchdowns, the eighth-highest passer rating, and the fourth-highest adjusted completion rate. Hurts will continue to post high-end QB1 numbers. Week 12 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

James Cook: Last week, with Joe Brady calling the shots, Cook finished as the RB10 for the week, playing 46% of the snaps with 20 touches and 102 total yards. He still only handled a 34.3% route run rate despite a 12.5% target share, with Latavius Murray and Ty Johnson cutting into his route share. Among 50 qualifying backs, Cook ranks 22nd in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt. Cook has seen 61.3% of his rushing volume on gap runs as he ranks sixth-best in gap yards per carry (5.63) and 11th in gap success rate. The Bills should feature their best rusher this week. Since Week 6, the Eagles have had trouble stopping the run, allowing the second-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest yards before contact per attempt, and the eighth-highest yards per carry to gap runs (4.58). Since Week 7, the Bills offensive line has been bullying opponents with the third-highest adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Cook could crush again this week with another RB1 outing. Week 12 Positional Value: RB1

Latavius Murray: Last week, Murray played only 32% of the snaps with 10 carries and 35 rushing yards. Cook had two red zone opportunities to Murray’s one. Murray remains one of the most inefficient backs in the NFL. Among 50 qualifying backs, he is dead last in missed tackles forced per attempt and 42nd in yards after contact per attempt. If you are struggling in deep leagues to fill out your flex spot, Murray makes some sense, considering the matchup. Since Week 6, the Eagles have had trouble stopping the run, allowing the second-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest yards before contact per attempt, and the eighth-highest yards per carry to gap runs (4.58). 63.9% of Murray’s runs have been on gap plays. Week 12 Positional Value: Desperation flex

D’Andre Swift: Swift is the RB12 in fantasy points per game, ranking 14th in snap share, 13th in opportunity share, and tenth in weighted opportunities. He is also ninth in carries and 12th in targets and red zone touches. Swift has averaged 19.8 touches and 98.2 total yards. Swift ranks 16th in explosive run rate and 29th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Since Week 6, the Bills have cracked down against rushing attacks, allowing the fourth-lowest explosive run rate and the fifth-lowest missed tackles per attempt while rocking the fourth-best stuff rate. Swift will need his pass game role and a touchdown this week to finish as an RB1. Week 12 Positional Value: RB1/2

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs: Diggs is the WR8 in fantasy, commanding a 28.3% target share, a 37.9% air-yard share, and a 37.6% first-read share with 2.31 YPRR. Diggs ranks 17th in deep targets and seventh in red zone targets. This feels like an eruption spot after he has finished as the WR53 in fantasy in each of the last two weeks. Since Week 6, the Eagles have utilized single-high at the eighth-highest rate (58.1%) while surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback in single-high. Since Week 7 with Dalton Kincaid as a full-time player, Diggs has had a 25% target share, a 28.5% air-yard share, and a 32.8% first-read share against single high. Diggs will run about 61% of his routes against Darius Slay (68.8% catch rate and 88.6 passer rating) and James Bradberry (55.4% catch rate and 111.8 passer rating). Week 12 Positional Value: WR1

Gabriel Davis: This doesn’t feel like a ceiling spot for Davis, who remains the team’s field stretcher. He is the WR49 in fantasy, ranking 15th in aDOT (13.5) and 17th in deep targets. Since Week 6, the Eagles have utilized single-high at the eighth-highest rate (58.1%) while surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback in single-high. Against single-high, Davis has had a 14.8% target share, a 22.3% air-yard share, 0.97 YPRR, and a 15.6% first-read share. The Eagles have allowed the 11th-lowest CPOE and the seventh-fewest yards per attempt to deep passes this season. Week 12 Positional Value: Sit

Khalil Shakir: Since Week 8, Shakir has had a 67.5% route run rate, an 11.8% target share, 2.82 YPRR, and a 5.0% first-read share. That first-read share is frightening, while the other metrics are all fine, considering his place in the target pecking order. Since Week 6, the Eagles have utilized single-high at the eighth-highest rate (58.1%) while surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback in single-high. Against single high, Shakir has ranked third on the team with a 16% target per route run rate while also posting 2.50 YPRR and 8.55 yards after the catch per reception. Shakir is a flex with a high upside this week in a game that projects to be a shootout. Since Week 6, Philly has allowed the 10th-highest PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards to slot receivers. Week 12 Positional Value: High upside flex play

A.J. Brown: Brown has been the WR6 in fantasy points per game ranking second in deep targets and top-five in receiving yards and air yards. Brown had a dominant stretch of games from Weeks 3-8 with at least six receptions and 127 receiving yards weekly. Brown could start a new hot streak this week. Overall, he has had a 28.7% target share, a 49% air-yard share, 3.11 YPRR, and a 40.3% first-read share. Brown will run about 77% of his routes against Christian Benford (68.8% catch rate and 104.7 passer rating) and Rasul Douglas (63% catch rate and 79.6 passer rating). Week 12 Positional Value: WR1

DeVonta Smith: This season, in the one game without Dallas Goedert in the lineup, Smith had a 36.4% target share, a 64.8% air-yard share, 4.13 YPRR, and a 37.5% first-read share. Yes, I know it’s a one-game sample, but it still has to be mentioned. Overall, this season, Smith has had a 20.2% target share, a 30.8% air-yard share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 23.8% first-read share. Since Week 6, the Bills have utilized two-high at the fifth-highest rate (57.5% of their defensive snaps). Against two-high, Smith has seen his air-yard share increase to 36%, his YPRR jump to 2.36, and his first-read share hops up to 29.3%. Smith will run about 69% of his routes against Christian Benford (68.8% catch rate and 104.7 passer rating) and Rasul Douglas (63% catch rate and 79.6 passer rating). Week 12 Positional Value: WR2

Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid: Since Week 7, among 35 qualifying tight ends, Kincaid has ranked eighth in target share (22.0%), ninth in YPRR (2.09), and eighth in first-read share (24.0%). He has been the TE5 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 6, the Eagles have utilized single-high at the eighth-highest rate (58.1%) while surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback in single-high. Since Week 7, among 34 qualifying tight ends against single high, Kincaid ranks eighth in target share (20.8%) and YPRR (2.13) and ninth in expected fantasy points per route run. Week 12 Positional Value: TE1

Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers

BAL -3.5, O/U 48
Ravens vs. Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 6, Baltimore has had the second-slowest neutral pace and the sixth-highest neutral rushing rate.
Over their last six games, the Bolts have been 15th in neutral pace and 12th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson: Jackson is the QB10 in fantasy points per game. His rushing equity remains alive and well, as he is second in rushing yards per game, red zone carries per game, and fourth in rushing touchdowns. He continues to ball out as a passer, ranking fourth in yards per attempt, sixth in passer rating, and tenth in highly accurate throw rate. Jackson has QB1 overall upside this week against a pass defense that, since Week 6 has allowed the third-highest yards per attempt, the second-highest passer rating, and the second-highest adjusted completion rate. Week 12 Positional Value: QB1

Justin Herbert: Herbert has had his ups and downs as a passer this season, but he is still the QB3 in fantasy. He has finished as the QB8 or higher in weekly scoring in four of his last six games (QB5, QB8, QB2, QB3). Herbert is 12th in yards per attempt, seventh in passer rating, and fifth in highly accurate throw rate. He runs into a Baltimore pass defense that has been playing incredible football. Since Week 6, they have allowed the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the second-fewest passing touchdowns, and the fourth-lowest passer rating. Week 12 Positional Value: Volatile QB1

Running Backs

Gus Edwards: Edwards has turned into this season’s version of Jamaal Williams. He has scored a touchdown in every game since Week 7 while averaging 13.4 touches and 77.6 total yards along the way. Edwards is the RB23 in fantasy points per game, ranking 16th in carries and red zone touches. He is third in total touchdowns with 10. He ranks 20th in explosive run rate and 26th in yards after contact per attempt. He’ll need to spike another touchdown to pay off this week against a strong Chargers run defense. Since Week 6, the Bolts have had the 11th-best stuff rate while allowing the sixth-fewest missed tackles per attempt and the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 12 Positional Value: RB2/3

Keaton Mitchell: Mitchell has been explosive and impressive with limited volume this season. Last week, we saw that his weekly floor remained low as he played only 36% of the snaps (season-high) with nine touches and 41 total yards. He had only two red zone opportunities compared to Edwards’ four. All of these numbers are encouraging as his usage is going up, but they also remind us to pump the brakes. Mitchell’s 20% explosive run rate and 8.45 yards after contact per attempt are astronomical numbers. He should continue to earn more of this backfield over time, but in a tough matchup this week, he’s a sit. Since Week 6, the Bolts have had the 11th-best stuff rate while allowing the sixth-fewest missed tackles per attempt and the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 12 Positional Value: Sit

Austin Ekeler: Ekeler is the RB10 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.6 touches and 81 total yards since his return. He ranks ninth in snap share, tenth in opportunity share, and 16th in red zone touches. Since Week 9, among 34 qualifying backs, Ekeler ranks fifth in explosive run rate and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. His tackle-breaking has rebounded, but if you turn on the film, he still doesn’t look like the lightning-in-a-bottle version of Ekeler that we have grown accustomed to over the last few seasons. Ekeler should have another strong outing this week. Baltimore’s pass defense is fearsome, but the Ravens’ run defense is like Swiss cheese. Since Week 6, they have allowed the 12th-highest explosive run rate, the ninth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 12 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

Zay Flowers: Flowers enters this game with a questionable tag (hip). He was limited on Wednesday, but then he missed practice on Thursday before returning to a full session on Friday. Assuming Flowers is healthy enough to play his usual role, he should enjoy a volume bump this week. Without Mark Andrews in Week 1, Flowers handled a 45.5% target share and a 60% first-read share. I don’t expect him to see that insane type of usage this week with Odell Bekcham Jr. and Rashod Bateman becoming bigger parts of the offense, but he should still see a volume infusion. Since Week 2, Flowers has had a 21.2% target share, a 24% air-yard share, 1.63 YPRR, and a 23.6% first-read share. Among wide receivers, he ranks 25th in deep targets and 24th in red zone looks. Since Week 6, the Chargers have allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 12 Positional Value: WR2/3

Odell Beckham Jr.: Beckham has run hot over the last three games with limited snap counts. He has played 33%-46% of the snaps. He finished with 56 yards in Week 9 with a score, only to manage 40 yards and another score in Week 10 with his only reception. Last week, he secured four of his seven targets for 116 receiving yards. Since Week 9, he has had a 47.5% route run rate, an 18.3% target share, a 29.5% air-yard share, 4.42 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share. He is currently dealing with a shoulder issue. He missed practice on Wednesday before managing a limited session on Thursday and a full practice on Friday. He has been listed as questionable. Beckham could continue defying the odds in Week 12 with a glorious matchup. Since Week 6, the Chargers have allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 12 Positional Value: WR4/5 with WR3 upside

Rashod Bateman: Over the last two weeks, Bateman has had a 71.4% route run rate with a 12.2% target share, 0.78 YPRR, a 21% air-yard share, and a 19.4% first-read share. Bateman tweaked his foot in Wednesday’s practice, but he returned to full practices on Thursday and Friday so my concern meter is low. Bateman’s arrow is pointing up with only his second red zone target of the season last week. He is a true dice roll flex this week with a strong matchup. The Chargers have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Week 12 Positional Value: Dice roll flex

Keenan Allen: Allen remains the WR2 in fantasy points per game. He is 17th in deep targets and tenth in red zone targets among wide receivers. Allen has had a 31.2% target share, a 38.3% air-yard share, 2.82 YPRR, and a 39.7% first-read share. He is the engine of the Bolts offense with at least 116 receiving yards in each of his last two games. Week 12 Positional Value: WR1

Quentin Johnston: No. Just no. Do not play Johnston. Johnston has had the perfect run out this season with Mike Williams‘ unfortunate injury, but sadly, Johnston was ill-equipped to step up. Since Week 8, he has had an 80% route run rate, which he has done nothing with. Over his last four games, he has a 13% target share, 0.91 YPRR, and a 15.1% first-read share. Week 12 Positional Value: Droppable

Tight Ends

Isaiah Likely: In Weeks 1 & 11 this season, Likely has seen his most extensive game usage with a 65.6% route run rate, a 6.3% target share, 0.10 YPRR, and a 3.6% first-read share. These are not glittering numbers at all. We have seen Likely produce when called upon in the past, so I won’t rule out that he can get into a groove and produce low-end TE1 numbers weekly. In five career games with at least 67% of snaps played, he has finished with at least seven targets, six grabs, and 77 receiving yards twice. The Chargers are the perfect matchup for him to flash once again, as they have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and the second-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 12 Positional Value: Low-end TE1

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings

MIN -3, O/U 43
Bears vs. Vikings Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

With Fields back last week, Chicago had the fourth-slowest neutral pace and the highest neutral rushing rate.
With Josh Dobbs as the starter, Minnesota has ranked 18th in neutral pace and had the eighth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Justin Fields: In Fields’ last three full starts, he has finished as the QB3, QB1, and QB8 in fantasy. Last week, he returned to post 104 rushing yards, as Chicago didn’t limit him as a rusher at all. Since Week 4, when Luke Getsy decided to get out of his own way, Fields has been playing extremely well as a passer. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks third in yards per attempt, second in passer rating, tenth in adjusted completion rate, and third in highly accurate throw rate. I know that people don’t want to give Fields his flowers as a passer, but you can’t explain away those numbers. Fields will be truly tested to prove his growth this week. Since Week 6, the Vikings have been a tough pass defense, allowing the 12th-fewest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest passer rating, and the ninth-lowest adjusted completion rate. Brian Flores will attempt to dismantle Fields with the blitz this week. Minnesota still leads the NFL in blitz rate. Against the blitz, Fields has struggled since Week 4, with the ninth-lowest passer rating and the eighth-lowest CPOE when blitzed. Week 12 Positional Value: QB1

Joshua Dobbs: Dobbs is the QB15 in fantasy points per game. With the Vikings, Dobbs has finished as the QB5, QB3, and QB14 in fantasy. Since joining Minnesota, among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, Dobbs has ranked 20th in yards per attempt, 15th in passer rating, and 20th in adjusted completion rate. Dobbs has needed his rushing equity to boost his fantasy output. Dobbs will be tested as well this week against a much improved Chicago Bears pass defense. Since Week 6, they have allowed the tenth-fewest passing yards per game, the fifth-lowest yards per attempt, and the tenth-lowest CPOE. Week 12 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Khalil Herbert: Last week, D’Onta Foreman looked like he was going to be the Bears’ leading rusher until he sustained an injury, and then he gave way to Herbert. Herbert played 43% of the snaps, finishing with 18 touches and 41 total yards. With Foreman still banged up, I expect Herbert to lead the backfield this week. Among 50 qualifying backs, Herbert ranks sixth in explosive run rate and third in missed tackles forced per attempt. Herbert will need every bit of his explosiveness this week against a stout Minnesota run defense. Since Week 6, they have allowed the ninth-lowest explosive run rate and the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 12 Positional Value: RB3

D’Onta Foreman suffered a high ankle sprain. Even with 8 days rest, he won’t be 100% by Week 12. pic.twitter.com/T6IICnqmbj

— Edwin Porras, DPT (@FBInjuryDoc) November 21, 2023

D’Onta Foreman: Foreman has been downgraded to doubtful. With no way to project his workload in Week 12, even if he is active and he’s probably not 100%, Foreman is a sit. The matchup is also brutal. Since Week 6, Minnesota has allowed the ninth-lowest explosive run rate and the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 12 Positional Value: Sit

Alexander Mattison: Last week, Mattison returned to play 65% of the snaps with 19 touches and 80 total yards. It was easily one of his best games of the season. In Week 12, Mattison is still searching for his first rushing touchdown of the season, as crazy as that sounds. Over his last four games, he has averaged 15.8 touches and 59.8 total yards. He ranks 31st in explosive run rate and 39th in yards after contact per attempt. Don’t expect much from him this week, as the matchup is terrible. Since Week 6, Chicago has allowed the lowest explosive run rate, the seventh-lowest missed tackles per attempt, and the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 12 Positional Value: RB3

Ty Chandler: Last week, Chandler only played 31% of the snaps, turning his 14 touches into 110 total yards in a smash matchup. This isn’t the week to look to flex Chandler in a dreadful matchup. Since Week 6, Chicago has allowed the lowest explosive run rate, the seventh-lowest missed tackles per attempt, and the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 12 Positional Value: Sit

Wide Receivers

D.J. Moore: In Fields’ last three full starts, Moore has had a 33.3% target share, a 56.0% air-yard share, 4.76 YPRR, and a 48.1% first-read share. He finished as the WR5, WR2, and the WR6 in weekly fantasy scoring in those weeks. Moore is the WR13 in fantasy points per game ranking ninth in deep targets. With Fields under center, Moore is a borderline WR1 weekly. Week 12 Positional Value: WR1/2

Darnell Mooney: In Fields’ last three full games, Mooney has had a 9.2% target share, 0.93 YPRR, and a 13.2% first-read share with one end-zone target. Mooney is a sneaky deep league flex this week, even though the target volume has been spotty at best. Slot receivers have gouged Minnesota. Since Week 6, they have allowed the 10th-most PPR points per target and the fourth-most receiving yards to slot receivers. Week 12 Positional Value: Dice roll flex

Justin Jefferson: Jefferson has remained limited in practice, so we shall see if he makes his return this week. All of the reports around Jefferson have seemed positive. The math remains easy. If Jefferson is active, you play him. He is the WR3 in fantasy points per game this season, ranking 14th in target share, 13th in target rate, and 18th in air-yard share. Week 12 Positional Value: WR1 if active

Jordan Addison: With Dobbs under center, Addison has had a 19.6% target share, a 35% air-yard share, 1.39 YPRR, and a 22.2% first-read share. Addison has finished as a WR3 in two of Dobbs’ three starts (WR29, WR33). He has three red zone targets over his last three games. Since Week 6, the Bears have allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 12 Positional Value: WR3/4

K.J. Osborn: Osborn is droppable. He is the WR59 in fantasy and has finished outside the top 40 wide receivers in weekly fantasy scoring in 70% of his games. He has not surpassed 20 receiving yards with Dobbs under center. Week 12 Positional Value: Droppable

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet: Kmet is the TE7 in fantasy points per game, ranking 20th in deep targets and sixth in red zone targets among tight ends. He ranks ninth in target share, tenth in air-yard share, sixth in receptions, and ninth in receiving yards among tight ends. Minnesota is a neutral matchup for tight ends, allowing the 17th-most receiving yards per game and the 18th-most fantasy points per game. Week 12 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson’s ribs are still ailing. He has been limited in practice all week. Over the last two games, he has played 63-70% of the snaps, still seeing an 86.1% route run rate, a 33.3% target share, a 43.4% air-yard share, and a 37.2% first-read share. Hockenson is the TE2 in fantasy, ranking sixth in deep targets and fourth in red zone looks. Hockenson should smash again this week. Chicago has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends. Week 12 Positional Value: TE1

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, 4for4, Rotoviz, RBdsm.com, The Edge from the 33rd Team, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.

NFL NFL Primers Start/Sit Weekly Advice Patrick Mahomes Tua Tagovailoa Aidan O’Connell Isiah Pacheco Jerick McKinnon Josh Jacobs Rashee Rice Tyler Hall Justin Watson Marcus Peters Nate Hobbs Davante Adams L’Jarius Sneed Calvin Ridley A.J. Brown D.J. Moore Justin Jefferson Garrett Wilson Jakobi Meyers Travis Kelce Michael Mayer Josh Allen Jalen Hurts James Cook Latavius Murray Ty Johnson D’Andre Swift Stefon Diggs Dalton Kincaid James Bradberry Gabriel Davis Khalil Shakir Christian Benford Rasul Douglas DeVonta Smith Dallas Goedert Lamar Jackson Justin Herbert Gus Edwards Jamaal Williams Keaton Mitchell Austin Ekeler Zay Flowers Mark Andrews Rashod Bateman Odell Beckham Jr. Keenan Allen Quentin Johnston Mike Williams Isaiah Likely Justin Fields Joshua Dobbs Khalil Herbert D’Onta Foreman Alexander Mattison Ty Chandler Darnell Mooney Jordan Addison K.J. Osborn Cole Kmet T.J. Hockenson