The Primer: Week 12 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

New England Patriots vs. New York Giants

• NE -3.5, O/U 44.5
• Patriots vs. Giants Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

NE QBs: I can’t start any New England quarterback with confidence. Mac Jones‘ play has been up and down all season, and with rumblings that he could lose his starting gig to Bailey Zappe, I can’t trust that Jones will even finish the game this week. The same could be said for Zappe. Even if Zappe starts, I have no faith that he will finish the game.

Tommy DeVito: DeVito has played like a backup-level quarterback overall. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 30th in yards per attempt, 36th in CPOE, and 24th in hero throw rate. He faces a New England pass defense that has looked human since Week 6. Since that moment in time, the Patriots have allowed the tenth-most yards per attempt and sixth-most passing yards per game while also ranking 15th in CPOE. DeVito should be able to post solid QB2 numbers this week. Week 12 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson is the RB28 in fantasy points per game, and he’s been heating up. Stevenson has top-20 weekly finishes in four of his last five games (RB6, RB15, RB2, RB20). Since Week 9 among 35 qualifying backs, he has ranked 15th in explosive run rate, 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt while averaging 18 touches and 115.5 total yards. Stevenson is FINALLY starting to play like the back I thought we were drafting during the summer. He has had no issue holding off Zeke all season, ranking 11th in snap share and weighted opportunities. Stevenson should continue his hot streak against a Giants run defense that has fallen off the wagon if it was ever on it. Since Week 6, they have allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the most rushing touchdowns, and the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 12 Positional Value: RB1/2

Ezekiel Elliott: Across his last four games, Elliott has averaged 10.6 touches and 46.8 total yards. He has surprisingly been a strong flex play since Week 5 with RB30, RB20, RB25, RB35, and RB25 finishes in five games. His tackle-breaking metrics remain in the gutter, which, at this point, we shouldn’t expect any rebound. Among 50 qualifying backs, he is 48th in explosive run rate and 49th in missed tackles forced per attempt. The matchup for Elliott and this rushing attack is glorious, which could vault him into another strong flex week. Since Week 6, the Giants have allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the most rushing touchdowns, and the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 12 Positional Value: RB3

Saquon Barkley: Barkley is the RB9 in fantasy points per game, ranking third in snap share and opportunity share. Barkley is also eighth in weighted opportunities. Barkley hasn’t been 100% for most of the season, but you’d never know it by looking at his metrics. Among 50 backs, he ranks seventh in explosive run rate and 22nd in yards after contact per attempt. Barkley will have his work cut out for him this week. New England has shut down rushers. Since Week 6, they have allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate and missed tackles per attempt while giving up the LOWEST yards after contact per attempt. Barkley can outkick efficiency with volume this week for a decent fantasy day but don’t expect a ceiling performance. Week 12 Positional Value: RB2

Wide Receivers

Demario Douglas: Douglas has been awesome since becoming a starter in New England, with WR3 or higher fantasy finishes in three of those four games (WR29, WR27, WR23). Since Week 7, Douglas has had a 21.5% target share, 1.88 yards per route run, and a 27.1% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). That’s WR2-equivalent usage. Douglas has not scored any touchdowns this season, or those WR3 weeks would easily all be WR2 finishes. Douglas should have another productive week against a Giants’ secondary that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to slot receivers this season. Week 12 Positional Value: WR3 with WR2 upside

NYG WRs: Darius Slayton is banged up (neck). Outside of Slayton, there’s not a single Giants’ wide receiver that you can trust in your fantasy lineup. In Week 11, only Wan’Dale Robinson managed higher than a 60% route run rate as the Giants utilized a wide receiver committee. Even if you wanted to get cute and plug-in Robinson, this isn’t the matchup to do so. New England has allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target and the 10th-fewest receiving yards to slot wide receivers. No receiver from this depth chart is trustworthy in fantasy.

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry: Henry is the TE19 in fantasy this season. Henry has only one TE1 finish over his last eight games. He has had a 13.5% target share and four red zone targets (two in his last two games). This is just another week to sit, Henry. New York has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the eighth-fewest receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends. Week 12 Positional Value: Sit

NO vs. ATL | PIT vs. CIN | CAR vs. TEN | TB vs. IND | NE vs. NYG | JAC vs. HOU | CLE vs. DEN | LAR vs. ARI | KC vs. LV | BUF vs. PHI | BAL vs. LAC | CHI vs. MIN

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

• JAX -1.5, O/U 47.5
• Jaguarsvs. Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 6, Jacksonville has operated at the third-slowest neutral pace while having the 11th-highest neutral rushing rate.
• With C.J. Stroud playing at an MVP level, the speedy, pass-happy Texans’ offense has returned. Since Week 9, they have ranked fifth in neutral pace and seventh in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence is the QB18 in fantasy this season. Last week’s QB1 overall showing was only his second QB1-worthy fantasy performance of the season when not facing the Colts. Lawrence’s high-level peripherals this season have been consistent with his QB2-worthy performances, as he has ranked 14th in yards per attempt and passer rating while sitting at 19th in fantasy points per dropback. His deeper passing marks have stated that he is playing better football than it seems as long as he has a clean pocket, ranking 12th in highly accurate throw rate, fifth in adjusted completion rate, and eighth in CPOE. Against pressure, Lawrence ranks 18th in passing grade, 29th in adjusted completion rate, and 11th in turnover-worthy throws. Luckily for Lawrence, his offensive line has been doing a good job in pass protection lately because they will be tested this week. Since Week 6, Jacksonville’s line has allowed the lowest pressure rate with the eighth-lowest pressure rate over expectation. In the same timeframe, Houston ranked fifth in pressure rate and third-best in time to pressure. Week 12 Positional Value: Volatile Borderline QB1

C.J. Stroud: Stroud is the QB6 in fantasy, ranking third in yards per attempt, eighth in passer rating, and ninth in fantasy points per dropback. Stroud will have all day in the pocket against a Jacksonville front that, since Week 6, has had the second-lowest pressure rate while also ranking fourth-lowest in pressure rate over expectation. This will be their undoing because Stroud will have plenty of time to wind up deep. Since Week 6, Jacksonville has allowed the ninth-most passing touchdowns and passing yards per game while giving up the 12th-most fantasy points via passing. A large chunk of that has been through deep passing. Over the same timeframe, Jacksonville has given up the second-most passing fantasy points via deep passing, the most deep passing touchdowns, and the seventh-highest depth-adjusted completion rate. Stroud will cook this week. Week 12 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Travis Etienne: Jacksonville has lessened Etienne’s workload over the last two games, and we could see that continue this week. Over the last two games, Etienne has played 61% and 66% of the snaps, averaging 14 touches and 51.5 total yards. This is a departure for a back who ranks fourth in snap share and fifth in opportunity share this season. Etienne ranks 24th in explosive run rate and 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt. He faces a much improved Texans’ run defense this week that still has some holes in it. Since Week 6, the Texans have clamped down, allowing the 11th-lowest explosive run rate and seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt, but they have also yielded the 10th-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Etienne 54% gap) and the second-highest missed tackles per attempt. Etienne could surprise with a strong outing even if his volume is dialed back a bit. Week 12 Positional Value: RB1

Devin Singletary: Over the last two weeks, Singletary has averaged 83% of the snaps played with 27.5 touches and 139.5 total yards per game. Even with Pierce back, I expect Singletary to lead the backfield in touches. Singletary ranks 30th in explosive run rate and seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt. The bulk of his production will have to come on the ground as he has not seen more than two targets in any game this season. Jacksonville has been a strong team against the run for most of the season, but Singletary can exploit some of their flaws this week. Since Week 6, Jacksonville has held backs in check with the seventh-best stuff rate and eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, but in that stretch they have also given up the eighth-highest explosive run rate and missed tackles allowed per attempt. The issue has been their inability to defend gap runs. Since Week 6, they have given up the second-highest yards per carry to gap runs (5.45). Over the last two weeks, Singletary has a 53.8% gap run rate. Week 12 Positional Value: RB2

Dameon Pierce: What Devin Singletary has done over the last two games can’t be ignored. For a team that has searched to find a ground game all season, it has been huge. Pierce will likely be shoved into a backup role this week. The biggest issue for Pierce producing on even limited volume is that 66.1% of his runs have come via zone plays this season. Jacksonville has allowed the third-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (2.97) since Week 6. Sit Pierce this week. Week 12 Positional Value: Sit

Wide Receivers

Calvin Ridley: Ridley is the WR31 in fantasy, ranking 15th in deep targets and 24th in red zone targets among wide receivers. The good thing for Ridley is that four of his nine red zone targets this season have come in his last two games. The last time Ridley faced this secondary, they held him in check with seven targets, three receptions, and 40 scoreless receiving yards. This time will be different. Houston has utilized zone coverage on 70.1% of their defensive snaps this season. Ridley has ranked second on the team in target share (19.9%) and YPRR (1.83) against zone while leading the squad with a 38.4% air-yard share and 24.3% first-read share against zone. Since Week 6, Houston has allowed the second-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 12 Positional Value: WR2

Christian Kirk: Kirk is the WR26 in fantasy while also ranking outside the top 30 wide receivers in deep targets and red zone targets. Kirk has had three red zone looks over his last four games. Houston has utilized zone coverage on 70.1% of their defensive snaps this season. Against zone, Kirk ranks third on the team with an 18.7% target share and 21.3% first-read share against zone while also ranking second in air-yard share with 26.5% against the coverage type. Kirk will run about 71% of his routes against Tavierre Thomas (81.3% catch rate and 97.1 passer rating). Week 12 Positional Value: WR3

Zay Jones: Last week, Jones returned to the lineup to log a 68% route run rate with a 12.5% target share, 5.1% air-yard share, 0.83 YPRR, and a 14.3% first-read share. Jones has seen an insane 36.3% of his targets in the red zone this season (eight of his 22 targets). If Jones is closer to full strength this week, his target share and route run rate will climb even higher. Since Week 6, Houston has allowed the second-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. If you are looking for upside in your flex spot this week, Jones should be your guy. Week 12 Positional Value: WR4 with WR2/3 upside

Tank Dell: In the last six games with Dell and Nico Collins at full strength, Dell has led the way with a 21.2% target share and a 35.3% air-yard share while ranking second to Collins with 2.84 YPRR and a 24.0% first-read share. Dell has led the team in deep targets in these games with 10 deep looks (Collins six). Since Week 6, Jacksonville has utilized zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate (81.3%). In those previously mentioned six games with Dell and Collins both active, Dell has easily led the team with a 24.1% target share, a 40.0% air-yard share, and a 26.7% first-read share (tied with Collins). Dell will crush souls again this week. Since Week 6, Jacksonville has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 12 Positional Value: WR1/2

Nico Collins: In the last six games with Tank Dell and Collins rocking their usual snap rates, Collins has ranked second in target share (20.3%) and air-yard share (25.1%) while leading the team with 3.07 YPRR and a 27.3% first-read share. Since Week 6, Jacksonville has utilized zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate (81.3%). In those six games, against zone Collins had a 19.9% target share, a 24.8% air-yard share, 3.03 YPRR (led the team), and 26.7% first-read share (tied for first with Dell). Collins has ranked second in this sample of games in deep targets. Since Week 6, Jacksonville has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 12 Positional Value: WR2

Robert Woods: In the last six games with Dell and Collins playing their usual roles, Woods has been a nice complement. Since Week 6, Jacksonville has utilized zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate (81.3%). In those six games, against zone, Woods had an 18.9% target share, a 21.9% air-yard share, 1.53 YPRR, and a 21.0% first-read share. The matchup has not been great for slot receivers facing off against Jacksonville. Since Week 6, they have allowed the lowest PPR points per target and the 11th-fewest receiving yards. Week 12 Positional Value: WR4/5

Noah Brown: Brown hasn’t practiced this week (knee). I doubt he will play this week.

Tight Ends

Evan Engram: Engram is the TE9 in fantasy, as he has soaked up a ton of volume all season. Engram ranks third in raw target volume among tight ends. Among 45 qualifying tight ends, he is third in target share (20.9%), 16th in YPRR (1.51), and fifth in first-read share (22.7%). Engram hasn’t scored a touchdown this season and has only three red zone looks, but the silver lining is that all three of those targets inside the 20-yard line have come in the last three games. Houston has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game, third-most receiving yards per game, and the ninth-most receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends. Week 12 Positional Value: TE1

Dalton Schultz: Schultz is the TE6 in fantasy points per game, ranking fourth in red zone targets. In the last six games with Tank Dell and Nico Collins healthy, he has had a 13.7% target share, 1.77 YPRR, and a 12.7% first-read share. He should post another week of TE1 production against Jacksonville, who has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the second-most yards per reception to tight ends. Week 12 Positional Value: TE1

NO vs. ATL | PIT vs. CIN | CAR vs. TEN | TB vs. IND | NE vs. NYG | JAC vs. HOU | CLE vs. DEN | LAR vs. ARI | KC vs. LV | BUF vs. PHI | BAL vs. LAC | CHI vs. MIN

Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos

• DEN -1.5, O/U 36
• Browns vs. Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Last week Cleveland ranked fourth in neutral pace and 13th in neutral passing rate.
• Since Week 6, the Broncos have had the sixth-slowest neutral pace and the fifth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Dorian Thompson-Robinson: Thompson-Robinson completed only 55.8% of his passes last week with 3.8 yards per attempt. The Browns did feel comfortable enough to let him chuck it 43 times in a close game, but Thompson-Robinson didn’t do much with the volume. He also didn’t run nearly enough to outkick the passing concerns, with only three carries and 20 rushing yards. Thompson-Robinson should not be considered as a start in any format, especially against the Broncos’ resurgent pass defense. Since Week 8, Denver has allowed the 13th-lowest yards per attempt, the second-lowest passer rating, and the fewest fantasy points via passing. Week 12 Positional Value: Sit

Russell Wilson: Since Week 5, Wilson has become a check-down machine with the highest check-down rate (24.2%) and the lowest aDOT (5.9) among 33 qualifying quarterbacks. During this stretch of games, he has also logged the fourth-lowest yards per attempt and sixth-fewest passing yards per game as the QB17 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 6, Cleveland has remained a top pass defense, allowing the fourth-lowest passing yards per game, the lowest passer rating, and the second-lowest CPOE. Wilson is a basement-level QB2 this week. Week 12 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Week 11

Jerome Ford: Last, Ford and Kareem Hunt essentially split the work as Ford played 49% of the snaps with 14 touches and 39 total yards. He did have the edge between the two in the red zone with three opportunities versus Hunt’s one. Ford ranks 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. Ford should flirt with 15-20 touches and have a strong stat line against Denver this week. Since Week 6, the Broncos have allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-most missed tackles per attempt, and the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 12 Positional Value: RB2

Kareem Hunt: Since Week 9, Hunter has averaged 13 touches and 35.6 total yards. His saving grace has been his red zone role, but if Ford is absorbing that, Hunt is toast. Hunt is juiceless at this stage of his career. The juice has dried up. Among 50 qualifying backs, he ranks 47th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 48th in yards after contact per attempt. The matchup this week is amazing, so Hunt may get an efficiency bump. If he falls into the end zone somehow, he’ll be an RB3. Since Week 6, the Broncos have allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-most missed tackles per attempt, and the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 12 Positional Value: Low-end flex

Javonte Williams: Williams has seen his workload decrease in each of the last three games, with his snaps dropping from 63% to 49% in Week 11. Last week, he saw only 13 touches while producing 53 total yards. This isn’t the trend line we want to see or that I was expecting after he unleashed with 30 touches in Week 8. Williams ranks eighth in explosive run rate and 12th in yards after contact per attempt. If his volume bounces back this week, Williams can have a glorious day. Since Week 7, the Browns have continued to have issues stopping the run, allowing the highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 12 Positional Value: RB2

Wide Receivers

Amari Cooper: In the four games without Deshaun Watson this season, Cooper has had a 22.1% target share, a 44.3% air-yard share, 1.79 YPRR, and a 28.3% first-read share. Last week with Thompson-Robinson, Cooper had eight targets, four grabs, and 34 scoreless receiving yards. Patrick Surtain has followed receivers on at least 57.7% of their routes in six games this season. Only Tyreek Hill and D.J. Moore have surpassed 40 receiving yards in Surtain’s primary coverage. None of the six receivers he has shadowed on at least 57.7% of their routes has spiked a touchdown. If you have other comparable receiving options this week, sit Cooper. Week 12 Positional Value: Sit

Elijah Moore: Last week with Thompson-Robinson, Moore had a 16.3% target share, a 37.8% air-yard share, and a 19.4% first-read share with 1.62 YPRR. Moore is low-end flex play this week that is better left on your bench. He will run about 50% of his routes against Ja’Quan McMillian (60% catch rate and 82.4 passer rating). Since Week 7, Denver has allowed the lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 12 Positional Value: Sit

Courtland Sutton: Sutton is the WR21 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in red zone targets and second in total touchdowns among wide receivers. Sutton couldn’t get a touchdown last year to save his life, but this season, he can’t stop spiking them for six points. He has scored in eight of his ten games played. Sutton has a 20.9% target share, a 37.2% air-yard share, 1.73 YPRR, and a 24.7% first-read share. Since Week 6, Cleveland has utilized single-high at the highest rate in the NFL (73.2%). Sutton has smashed single-high this season with a 23.6% target share, a 35.6% air-yard share, 2.18 YPRR, and a 27.3% first-read share. Sutton will run about 76% of his routes against Mike Ford (Career: 71.8% catch rate and 111.1 passer rating) and Martin Emerson (45% catch rate and 50.7 passer rating). Week 12 Positional Value: WR2/3

Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy is the WR52 in fantasy who has seen only three red zone targets over his last five games played. Jeudy has finished with more than 65 receiving yards only once this season. He hasn’t seen more than seven targets in any game. He has been a floor play with WR3 finishes in three of his last four games. Since Week 7, the Browns have allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 12 Positional Value: WR4

Tight Ends

David Njoku: Last week with Thompson-Robinson, Njoku saw a monstrous 34.9% target share, 37.8% air-yard share, and a 38.9% first-read share with 1.56 YPRR. Since Week 7, he has been a focal point of the passing offense with a 24.9% target share, 1.76 YPRR, a 28.9% first-read share, and four end zone targets. Denver has been a dream matchup for tight ends, allowing the most fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game with the fourth-highest yards per reception. While this game overall feels gross, Njoku is a strong play. Week 12 Positional Value: TE1

NO vs. ATL | PIT vs. CIN | CAR vs. TEN | TB vs. IND | NE vs. NYG | JAC vs. HOU | CLE vs. DEN | LAR vs. ARI | KC vs. LV | BUF vs. PHI | BAL vs. LAC | CHI vs. MIN

Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals

• LAR -1.5, O/U 44.5
• Rams vs. Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Last week, with Matthew Stafford back, the Rams were fifth in neutral pace and fourth in neutral rushing rate.
• With Kyler Murray under center, Arizona has been 20th in neutral pace and 13th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford: In his first game back, Stafford completed only 54.8% of his passes with 6.1 yards per attempt and 190 passing yards to finish as the QB24 for the week. Stafford didn’t look like himself. Among 30 qualifying quarterbacks last week, he finished 26th in adjusted completion rate and highly accurate throw rate. Even at less than 100%, Stafford could forge a decent QB2 stat line this week against a burnable Arizona secondary. Since Week 6, the Cardinals have allowed the sixth-most yards per attempt, passing touchdowns, and passer rating. Week 12 Positional Value: QB2

Kyler Murray: In his two starts back in the fold, Murray has finished as the QB13 and the QB6. he has averaged 42 rushing yards per game with rushing scores in each game. Since Week 10 among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 12th in yards per attempt, 18th in highly accurate throw rate, and eighth in fantasy points per dropback. The Rams have become a pass-funnel defense. Since Week 6, they have allowed the ninth-most yards per attempt, the 11th-highest passer rating, and the eighth-highest adjusted completion rate. Murray is a strong QB1 this week that could easily finish as a top-five option in Week 12. Week 12 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Kyren Williams: Williams has been rocking full practices all week. The last time Williams faced this run defense, he had 20 carries that he turned into 158 rushing yards. During his time as the starter this season, he has played 65-100% of the snaps, averaging 18.4 touches and 93.5 total yards. I think Williams will resume his lead role in this backfield this week. While he might not play 90-100% of the snaps, he should at least see 60-70% of the work. Among 50 qualifying backs, Williams ranks 23rd in explosive run rate, ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. After starting the season in the basement in every tackle-breaking metric, Williams has picked it up as the season has moved along. Since Week 6, Arizona has allowed the 14th-highest explosive run rate, the second-most rushing yards per game, and the fourth-highest yards before contact per attempt. Williams reenters the RB1 ranks in Week 12. Week 12 Positional Value: RB1

Royce Freeman: Freeman played 63% of the snaps last week with 17 carries and 73 rushing yards (zero targets). I doubt we will see him get anywhere close to this type of workload this week. Freeman will spell Williams and handle some of the short yardage work. Among 50 qualifying backs, Freeman ranks 25th in explosive run rate, 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. Freeman should be started this week, but he is now a solid handcuff. Week 12 Positional Value: Strong handcuff

James Conner: Since his return, Conner has averaged 66% of the snaps with 16 touches and 68 total yards per game. He has not recorded an explosive run over his last two games, but his 30% missed tackles forced per attempt rate, and 3.13 yards after contact per attempt are incredibly strong numbers. Since Week 6, the Rams have shut down rushing attacks, allowing the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the ninth-lowest missed tackles per attempt, and the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Conner should see 15-20 touches this week. Week 12 Positional Value: RB2/3

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp: In the three-game sample we have with Stafford, Kupp, and Nacua all playing full-time roles this season, Kupp has had a 30.0% target share, a 41.5% air-yard share, 3.31 YPRR, and a 37.5% first-read share. In those three games, he saw two end zone targets and finished as the WR12, WR4, and WR53 in weekly scoring. We’ll see if Kupp can play his usual complement of snaps and be effective, but I do anticipate him trying to this week. Since Week 6, Arizona has allowed the third-highest PPR points to perimeter wide receivers (Kupp 51% boundary wide receiver). I’m approaching Kupp with some hesitation, ranking him as a WR2, but if he is a full-go, he absolutely can be a WR1 this week. Week 12 Positional Value: WR1/2 with strong WR1 upside

Puka Nacua: We only have a small three game sample with Kupp, Nacua, and Stafford all playing full-time snaps. In those three games, Nacua had a 33.3% target share (first on the team), a 37.7% air-yard share, 2.70 YPRR, and a 35.9% first-read share. He was also first on the team with three end zone targets. If I have to start one of Kupp or Nacua this week my lean is to Nacua because even though he is also dealing with a shoulder issue he is the healthier of the two. I have no question marks about Nacua playing his usual allotment of snaps this week. Since Week 6, Arizona has allowed the third-highest PPR points to perimeter wide receivers. Week 12 Positional Value: WR1

Tutu Atwell: Atwell only saw an 8.9% target share, 16.4% air-yard share, and a 10.9% first-read share with Nacua and Kupp active in Weeks 5-7. Sit Atwell. There isn’t enough target volume to go around with these two alphas active. Week 12 Positional Value: Sit

Marquise Brown: Brown is questionable this week with a heel issue. He didn’t practice on Thursday or Friday this week. With Murray back, Brown has only seen a 12.9% target share, a 25.1% air-yard share, and a 17.0% first-read share with 0.68 YPRR. These aren’t the type of numbers that people hoped for with Murray back under center. Since Week 8, the Rams have utilized zone coverage on 70.2% of their snaps. Against zone, Brown has had a 20.6% target share, a 33.9% air-yard share, 1.33 YPRR, and a 27.7% first-read share. Brown will run about 79% of his routes against Derion Kendrick (54.8% catch rate and 81.8 passer rating) and Ahkello Witherspoon (51% catch rate and 78.7 passer rating). Week 12 Positional Value: WR3/4

Micheal Wilson: Wilson has been ruled out (shoulder).

Rondale Moore: With Murray back, Moore has handled a 16.1% target share, a 27.6% air-yard share, and a 14.9% first-read share with 1.75 YPRR. Last week, with Michael Wilson out, he ran out of the slot on 65% of his snaps. Since Week 6, the Rams have allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to opposing slot receivers. Moore will tangle with Quentin Lake (74.1% catch rate and 89.0 passer rating) for most of the day. Moore could finish second on the team in targets this week. Week 12 Positional Value: WR4 with WR3 upside

Greg Dortch: Last week, with Wilson out, Dortch had a 78.4% route run rate, a 23.3% target share, 2.62 YPRR, and a 14.3% first-read share while running 72% of his routes on the perimeter. Dortch is flex-viable this week with Wilson out again, and Brown banged up. He will tangle with Derion Kendrick (54.8% catch rate and 81.8 passer rating) and Ahkello Witherspoon (51% catch rate and 78.7 passer rating) all day. Week 12 Positional Value: PPR flex

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee: With Stafford, Kupp, and Nacua all active and playing full-time roles in Weeks 5-7, Higbee only managed a 10.0% target share, 0.58 YPRR, and a 9.4% first-read share. None of these marks are good enough to consider plugging him into a lineup this week. Week 12 Positional Value: Sit

Trey McBride: Since Week 8, McBride has been a beast with a 29.4% target share, a 28.9% air-yard share, 2.47 YPRR, and a 36.0% first read share. Over the last four weeks, he has been the TE4 in fantasy. McBride should eat this week against a defense that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game and the highest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 12 Positional Value: TE1

NO vs. ATL | PIT vs. CIN | CAR vs. TEN | TB vs. IND | NE vs. NYG | JAC vs. HOU | CLE vs. DEN | LAR vs. ARI | KC vs. LV | BUF vs. PHI | BAL vs. LAC | CHI vs. MIN