Derek Brown | Sat, Nov 25th 2023, 8:30am EST

The Primer: Week 12 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

I hope you had a great Thanksgiving. You have plenty of football remaining this weekend to enjoy with your leftovers. Let’s dive into the rest of the action for Week 12 of the NFL season.

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Fantasy Football Primer

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

NO -1.5, O/U 41.5
Saints vs. Falcons Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

New Orleans continues to push the pace and passing rate. Since Week 6, the Saints have been first in neutral pace and 10th in neutral passing rate.
Since Week 6, the Falcons have been sprinting, ranking fourth in neutral pace while also checking in at ninth in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Derek Carr: Prior to his Week 10 injury derailing his game against the Vikings, Carr has shown progress over the last few games. In Weeks 6-9, Carr finished as a QB1 in three of four games (QB10, QB9, QB12). In that four-game stretch among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 11th in passer rating and 14th in CPOE and adjusted completion rate. Carr should cook the Falcons’ secondary this week, who, since Week 6, has allowed the 12th-most yards per attempt, the third-most passing touchdowns, and the eighth-most fantasy points via passing. Week 12 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Desmond Ridder: Ridder has been reinstalled as the starter for Atlanta as the Falcons flounder in an attempt to save their season. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Ridder has not been great, ranking 17th in yards per attempt, 25th in passer rating, and 31st in highly accurate throw rate. Ridder has also ranked 18th in fantasy points per dropback. The Saints have fallen off some as a pass defense in the last few weeks. Since Week 6, they have allowed the ninth-most passing touchdowns and the 13th-highest yards per attempt. In this span, they have the second-lowest time to pressure while ranking 18th in pressure rate. Ridder could produce a nice stat line this week. He is tenth in fantasy points per drop back from a clean pocket this season. Week 12 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara: After the Saints lightened Kamara’s load in Week 9, they bumped it right back up in Week 10 as he played 76% of the snaps with 16 touches and 75 total yards. Since his return in Week 4, Kamara has averaged 22 touches and 99 total yards. Kamara is the RB3 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in opportunity share and fourth in weighted opportunities. Kamara has been a volume and usage monster, but he has still been extremely disappointing from an efficiency standpoint. Kamara, at this stage of his career, is 2022 Leonard Fournette. He’s soaking up usage with an amazing role, but he’s leaving so much production on the table. As good as he’s been, if this were prime Kamara, he’d be giving Christian McCaffrey a run for his money as the RB1 overall, but Kamara simply isn’t that efficient anymore. Among 50 qualifying backs, he ranks 45th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 49th in yards after contact per attempt. Kamara can continue to produce as an RB1, especially against the Falcons this week. Since Week 6, Atlanta has allowed the 11th-highest missed tackles per attempt and the sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt. The Falcons have also given up the tenth-highest yards per reception to backs this season. Since Week 6, Atlanta has utilized two high at the second-highest rate (63.2%). Kamara leads the team with a 22.8% target share and 1.81 YPRR against two high. Week 12 Positional Value: RB1

Bijan Robinson: Robinson finally reclaimed this backfield in Week 10 with 23 touches and 106 total yards while playing 75% of the snaps. The biggest issue that Robinson faces is that Allgeier remained involved in the red zone as they split work (four opportunities each). Robinson remains rock solid from an efficiency standpoint, boasting the fourth-highest missed tackles forced per attempt while also ranking 17th in explosive run rate and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. The once-vaunted Saints’ run defense has taken a step back. Since Week 6, they have allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate and the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt. They are also 14th in yards per carry allowed to zone runs (Robinson 67.2% zone). Robinson should see 18-20 touches and pass game work in a plus matchup in Week 12. Week 12 Positional Value: RB1

Tyler Allgeier: In Week 10, Allgeier played 27% of the snaps, finishing with 10 touches and 38 total yards. The crazy thing is that 40% of his work came in the red zone. Allgeier is live to score a touchdown weekly if he continues to see a healthy red zone role. I don’t know why Arthur Smith continues to do this, but at this point in the season, it looks like it’s here to stay. It’s maddening that Allgeier continues to eat into Robinson’s ceiling, especially when you consider that the divide in ability between the two is the size of the Grand Canyon. Among 50 qualifying backs, Allgeier ranks 45th in explosive run rate and 38th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Since Week 6, the Saints have allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate and the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Because of his red zone role, Allgeier remains in the weekly RB3/4 conversation. Week 12 Positional Value: RB3/4

Wide Receivers

Chris Olave: Olave is the WR20 in fantasy, leading all receivers in deep targets. While Olave has only 10 red zone targets all season, six of them have come in the last four games. With Michael Thomas out, Olave’s red zone role could blossom even further. Olave has had a 24.3% target share, a 40.2% air-yard share, and a 31.6% first-read share with 1.85 YPRR. Since Week 6, Atlanta has utilized two high at the second-highest rate (63.2%). Against two high, Olave’s target share had dropped to 19.0%, and his YPRR has cratered at 1.05. This is quite concerning for Olave’s ceiling possibilities this week. Olave could see shadow coverage from A.J. Terrell this week. Terrell has followed receiving on at least 55% of their routes four times this season. Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, and Mike Evans each finished with at least 38 receiving yards while scoring a touchdown in primary coverage from Terrell (59.6% catch rate and 101.0 passer rating). Week 12 Positional Value: WR2

Rashid Shaheed: In Week 10, with Michael Thomas leaving due to injury, Shaheed soaked up a 20.9% target share, an 18.7% air-yard share, and a 24.2% first-read share. Shaheed’s role in the offense changed as his aDOT dropped to 9.4, with A.T. Perry taking over the field stretching role (15.5 aDOT) with Chris Olave. Shaheed was the primary read against two high in Week 10 against a Vikings defense that has utilized two high, the eighth-most (53.3%) this season. Shaheed had a 25% target share, a 33.8% air-yard share, and a 29.4% first-read share against two high in Week 10. Since Week 6, Atlanta has utilized two high at the second-highest rate (63.2%). Shaheed ran 58% of his routes from the slot in Week 10, which means he’ll see Dee Alford (71.1% catch rate and 110.0 passer rating) or Clark Phillips (rookie with only four targets in coverage). Atlanta has allowed the most PPR points per target and the third-most receiving touchdowns to slot receivers. Week 12 Positional Value: WR3

A.T. Perry: In Week 10, with Thomas knocked out of the game, Perry had an 80.9% route run rate, a 9.3% target share, 15.5 aDOT, and a 9.1% first-read share as he took over the field stretching role. Perry is a nice dice roll this week against an Atlanta secondary that has allowed the fourth-most deep passing touchdowns and the second-highest passer rating to deep shots. Week 12 Positional Value: Flex dice roll

Drake London: In Weeks 2-7 with Desmond Ridder under center, London had a 23.3% target share, a 30.2% air-yard share, 1.86 YPRR, and a 28.8% first-read share. In those six games, he saw 10 red zone targets as the WR22 in fantasy points per game. The Saints have allowed the second-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers this season, but not having Marshon Lattimore for a few weeks will hurt this pass defense. Week 12 Positional Value: WR2/3

Tight Ends

Taysom Hill: Since Week 6, Hill has been the TE4 in fantasy points per game. He has averaged nine touches and 56.8 total yards since Week 6, with a whopping 20 red zone opportunities. Hill has top-five tight-end upside weekly, and matchups matter little because his role is so multifaceted. Week 12 Positional Value: TE1

Kyle Pitts: In Weeks 1-7 with Ridder as the full-time starter, Pitts saw an 18.3% target share, 28.3% air-yard share, and a 20% first-read share with 1.50 YPRR. He had only two end-zone targets in this stretch. Pitts is the TE17 this season, with only two weeks as a TE1. It’s been tough to trust him in your lineup in any week, as he has surpassed 50 receiving yards only twice this season. New Orleans has been giving to slot tight ends, though (Pitts 58.3% slot), with the 10th-most fantasy points per game allowed to that position. Week 12 Positional Value: TE2

Jonnu Smith: With Ridder as the starter, Smith saw a 14.8% target share, 12.9% air-yard share, and an 18.2% first-read share with 2.03 YPRR. Smith only had one end zone target in those seven weeks. Smith is the TE15 this season with four TE1 weeks (TE3, TE12, TE4, TE5). Smith is a TE2 weekly dice roll that could produce strong TE1 numbers. New Orleans has been giving to slot tight ends, though (Pitts 58.3% slot), with the 10th-most fantasy points per game allowed to that position. Week 12 Positional Value: TE2

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

PIT -2, O/U 35
Steelers vs. Bengals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 6, the Steelers have had the 12th-slowest neutral pace and the fourth-highest neutral rushing rate.
In the second half of Week 11’s game, the Bengals operated at 30.5 seconds per snap with a 50% rushing rate. That would be the slowest neutral pace mark and the third-highest neutral rushing rate this season if those marks translate moving forward.

Quarterbacks

Kenny Pickett: Pickett has been unplayable in fantasy. He is the QB33 in fantasy points per game. He hasn’t crested 11 fantasy points in his last four games or crossed the 200-passing yard benchmark. It’s been a tough season for Pickett. Don’t play him in fantasy. He has one passing touchdown in his last five games. Week 12 Positional Value: Sit

Jake Browning: Browning looked like a backup last week. He completed only 57.1% of his passes with 4.86 yards per attempt, a 57.1% adjusted completion rate, and a 71.4% catchable throw rate. None of these numbers inspire any form of confidence. Even if we look at a larger preseason sample since 2019, it doesn’t get any prettier. Across those 155 pass attempts, Browning has had 6.1 yards per attempt, a 2:4 passing touchdown to interception ratio, and a 1.7% big-time throw rate. Don’t entrust your fantasy hopes to Browning. Week 12 Positional Value: Sit

Running Backs

Weeks 10-11

Player	Rushing attempts	Targets	Routes	Red zone opportunities
Jaylen Warren	24	7	22	4
Najee Harris	28	6	17	2

Jaylen Warren: Warren is the RB25 in fantasy points per game with RB2 or higher finishes in 70% of his games this season. Over the last three weeks, Warren has been the RB14, RB8, and RB2 in weekly fantasy scoring. Since Week 9, Warren has averaged 14.4 touches and 122.7 total yards. In the last two games, he has seen more targets, routes, and red zone opportunities than Najee Harris. Warren currently has the triple crown. Among 50 qualifying running backs, he is first in explosive run rate, missed tackles forced per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. That is absolute insanity. Warren should run wild again this week against a run defense that, since Week 6, has allowed the 10th-highest explosive run rate, the third-most missed tackles per attempt, and the highest yards per carry to zone runs (5.05). Warren has seen 56.3% of his runs on zone plays. Week 12 Positional Value: RB2 with RB1 upside

Najee Harris: Harris is the RB34 in fantasy with RB2 or higher finishes in five of his last seven games (RB19, RB13, RB22, RB12, RB9). Harris’s backfield mate, Jaylen Warren, has been amazing, but I don’t think that Harris hasn’t also been solid this season. Harris ranks 27th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. He should be able to churn out another solid stat line this week. Since Week 6, Cincinnati has allowed the 10th-highest explosive run rate, the third-most missed tackles per attempt, and the highest yards per carry to zone runs (5.05). Harris has seen 58.6% of his runs on zone plays. Week 12 Positional Value: RB2/3

Joe Mixon: Mixon is the RB15 in fantasy, ranking seventh in snap share, first in opportunity share, and fifth in weighted opportunities. The Bengals offense will revolve around him with Browning under center now. Mixon has been a volume monster, ranking fifth in carries, 12th in targets, and fourth in red zone touches. The volume should remain, but now we have questions about the overall efficiency of this offense and Mixon’s scoring opportunities. Mixon has averaged 18.4 touches and 79.3 total yards. The Steelers have been a mixed bag as a run defense since Week 6, ranking sixth in missed tackles allowed per attempt, but they have held backs to the 13th-lowest explosive run rate while ranking 18th in yards after contact per attempt. Mixon is a volume play moving forward. Week 12 Positional Value: RB2

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson: Since his return in Week 7, Johnson has had a 27.5% target share, a 48.3% air-yard share, 1.90 YPRR, and a 32.7% first-read share. Johnson is a stud that is being limited by not only the offensive design but also his quarterback. Pickett has not thrown more than 30 passes in a game since Week 7 and has only one touchdown pass. Unless Johnson starts chucking touchdown passes to himself, he’ll remain limited by Pickett. Johnson will run about 81% of his routes against Chidobe Awuzie (70.4% catch rate and 122.6 passer rating) and D.J. Turner (50% catch rate and 88.1 passer rating). Week 12 Positional Value: Volume-based WR3

George Pickens: With Johnson’s return and the Steelers deploying a run-first approach, Pickens’ volume has dried up. Since Week 7, he has had an 18.8% target share, a 38.0% air-yard share (13.4 aDOT), 1.40 YPRR, and a 24.3% first-read share. Pickens could have a strong day in Week 12 as Cincinnati has struggled against the deep ball recently. Since Week 7, Pickens has led the team with eight deep targets. Since Week 6, Cincinnati has allowed the third-highest CPOE and the fifth-highest yards per attempt on deep passes. Pickens will run about 86% of his routes against Chidobe Awuzie (70.4% catch rate and 122.6 passer rating) and D.J. Turner (50% catch rate and 88.1 passer rating). Week 12 Positional Value: Volume-based WR4 with WR2/3 upside

Ja’Marr Chase: Last week, Chase had a 22.6% target share, a 38.9% air-yard share, 0.32 YPRR, and a 25.9% first-read share. A touchdown saved his day from being a total loss as he finished with 12 receiving yards as the WR39 for the week. Because of the massive drop-off in quarterback play, Chase has been demoted to a WR2/3 for the rest of the season unless Browning surprises us all. He’s a volume play in the same area code as Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins. It’s a tough scene. Week 12 Positional Value: WR2/3

Tee Higgins: Higgins has been ruled out.

Tyler Boyd: Last week, Boyd had a 19.4% target share, a 15.0% air-yard share, 0.65 YPRR, and a 22.2% first-read share. Boyd is a sit until we see if Browning can support more than one (if that) receiving option weekly. Boyd is also droppable if there’s a more attractive flex option on the waiver wire or if you need to pick up a handcuff. Week 12 Positional Value: Sit

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth: Freiermuth returned last week, and the Steelers eased him back in with a 36.4% route run rate. Add in Pickett’s struggles and declining passing volume, and Freiermuth is not only a must-sit but droppable if you need a tight-end streamer. Freiermuth has logged more than ten receiving yards in a game only once this season. Week 12 Positional Value: Sit

Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans

TEN -3.5, O/U 36.5
Panthers vs. Titans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 6, the Panthers have ranked 13th in neutral pace and fifth in neutral passing rate.
With Will Levis under center, the Titans have had the tenth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 15th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Bryce Young: Young has been unplayable in fantasy this season. He is the QB28 in fantasy points per game. Young has not eclipsed 250 passing yards in any game this season and has only one game with multiple passing touchdowns and higher than 6.5 yards per attempt. If you are desperate for a streamer this week or up against a wall in a Superflex league, Young is worth a look this week, though. Tennessee has fielded a dreadful pass defense this season and could allow Young to post his best stat line of the season. Since Week 6, they have allowed the seventh-most yards per attempt, the fifth-highest passer rating, and the eighth-highest CPOE. Week 12 Positional Value: QB2

Will Levis: After playing the Falcons, who looked lost in Week 8, Levis has turned in QB22, QB26, and QB20 finishes. Since Week 9 among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 22nd in yards per attempt, 26th in passer rating, 29th in highly accurate throw rate, and 30th in adjusted completion rate. Tennessee should lean on their ground game this week against a pass defense that, since Week 6, has held passers to the second-lowest yards per attempt, the fifth-lowest passing yards per game, and the sixth-lowest fantasy points via passing. Week 12 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Miles Sanders: Last week, Sanders played 46% of the snaps with 12 touches and 52 total yards. He handled all of the red zone work for the backfield (three opportunities). This was Sanders’ highest snap share since Week 5. We could see the backfield beginning to shift back in his direction. Sanders has been terribly inefficient this season. Among 50 qualifying backs, he is 37th in explosive run rate, 47th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 6, Tennessee has been a neutral matchup for backs, ranking 18th in explosive run rate, 20th in missed tackles allowed per attempt, and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. Sanders is a low-end flex play at best. Week 12 Positional Value: RB3/4

Chuba Hubbard: Last week, Hubbard logged 49% of the snaps with 12 touches and 65 total yards. He didn’t touch the ball at all in the red zone as Sanders handled all three opportunities inside the 20. Hubbard has seen his snap rate decline in each of the last four weeks. He has easily been the best back on the Carolina depth chart this season, ranking 26th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 17th in yards after contact per attempt, but we could see this backfield shifting back to Sanders. The Panthers are desperate to get anything going on offense, so in their desperation, they could turn back to Sanders. Since Week 6, Tennessee has been a neutral matchup for backs, ranking 18th in explosive run rate, 20th in missed tackles allowed per attempt, and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. Week 12 Positional Value: RB3/4

Derrick Henry: Henry is the RB20 in fantasy, averaging 17.8 touches and 83 total yards. His snap shares have fluctuated widely this season from 38% to 71% of the snaps played, depending on the game script. This game sets up as one where Tennessee should be playing with a lead and should lean on their star back. Henry continues to ninja-kick Father Time in the cojones as he hasn’t fallen off in efficiency metrics. Henry ranks ninth in explosive run rate, 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. He should run wild this week against Carolina. Since Week 6, the Panthers have allowed the 10th-highest rate of missed tackles per attempt, the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the fifth-most rushing touchdowns. The King will return in Week 12. Week 12 Positional Value: RB1

Tyjae Spears: Spears is the RB44 in fantasy, averaging 7.6 touches and 42.6 total yards. Despite having six red zone opportunities over his last seven games, he has only one touchdown to show for it. Spears is a decent flex play this week, considering the matchup on the ground. Derrick Henry likely dominates the snaps this week if Tennessee can hold a lead, but Spears has been lightning in the bottle this season and could easily break any touch for a long play and a score. Among 57 qualifying backs, he is first in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and third in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 6, the Panthers have allowed the 10th-highest rate of missed tackles per attempt, the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the fifth-most rushing touchdowns. Week 12 Positional Value: Dart throw flex with upside

Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen: Thielen is the WR10 in fantasy points per game, ranking 13th in red zone targets. He bounced back last week with a WR21 showing after two down weeks. Thielen could stack back-to-back resurgent games this week. Thielen has a 25.4% target share, a 29.4% air-yard share, 1.88 YPRR, and a 34.3% first-read share. Thielen will run about 70% of his routes against Amani Hooker (82.3% catch rate and 133.5 passer rating). Week 12 Positional Value: WR2

DeAndre Hopkins: With Levis under center, Hopkins has had a 23.4% target share, a 40.9% air-yard share, 2.61 YPRR, and a 28.1% first-read share. With Levis struggling over the last three weeks, Hopkins has not cleared 65 receiving yards since Week 8. Over the last three weeks, he has finished as the WR27, WR57, and WR18. Tennessee could take the air out of the ball this week and feed King Henry, so temper your expectations regarding Hopkins’ target ceiling. Since Week 6, Carolina has allowed the 10th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 12 Positional Value: WR3

Treylon Burks: Burks still has not practiced since sustaining a concussion. I doubt he will play this week.

Tight Ends

*There are no fantasy viable tight ends in this game*

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts

IND -2.5, O/U 44.5
Buccaneers vs. Colts Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 6, the Buccaneers have been 12th in neutral pace and ninth in neutral passing rate.
With Gardner Minshew as the starter, Indy has ranked 11th in neutral pace and seventh in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield: Mayfield is the QB17 in fantasy with QB1 outings in four of his last five games (QB11, QB11, QB8, QB10). In efficiency metrics, he has operated at a QB2 level this season, ranking 23rd in yards per attempt, 16th in passer rating, and 23rd and adjusted completion rate. Mayfield is 20th in fantasy points per dropback. This week, Mayfield runs into a much improved Indy pass defense that has allowed the second-lowest passer rating, the second-fewest passing touchdowns, and the 11th-lowest CPOE since Week 6. Week 12 Positional Value: QB2

Gardner Minshew: Since taking over as Indy’s starter, Minshew has finished as the QB17 or lower in four of five games (QB17, QB18, QB23, QB27). Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Minshew ranks 24th in yards per attempt, 35th in highly accurate throw rate, and 27th in fantasy points per dropback. Minshew could post strong numbers this week and possibly flirt with QB1 numbers against a terrible Tampa Bay pass defense. Since Week 6, the Bucs have allowed the highest yards per attempt, the second-most passing touchdowns, and the third-highest adjusted completion rate to quarterbacks. Week 12 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Rachaad White: White is the RB11 in fantasy points per game. He has survived all season because of volume and his pass-game role. White ranks sixth in snap share, ninth in opportunity share, and fourth in weighted opportunities among running backs. He has averaged 18.2 touches and 81.3 total yards while ranking fifth in targets and 12th in target share among running backs. Tackle-breaking continues to elude him. Among 50 qualifying backs, White ranks 47th in explosive run rate and 44th in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. Indy has been a neutral matchup for backs with the ability to give up production to zone runs. Since Week 6, they have allowed the eighth-lowest missed tackles per attempt, but they have also ranked 17th in yards after contact per attempt and given up the ninth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (4.5). 53.9% of White’s runs this season have been on zone plays. White can use his pass game role to carve out another good day against a defense giving up the ninth-highest yards per reception to backs this season. White has been downgraded to questionable with a knee injury. If he misses this game, we probably see a gross committee, and this backfield becomes a situation to avoid. Week 12 Positional Value: RB2

Jonathan Taylor: Taylor owns this backfield now, as he has averaged 81% of the snaps with 23.5 touches and 72 total yards across his last two games. Since Week 7, Taylor has looked like his usual self, breaking tackles with ease, ranking 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 11th in yards after contact per attempt (among 46 qualifying backs). Unfortunately, Taylor ran into a buzzsaw this week. The Buccaneers’ run defense has been an elite unit. Since Week 6, they have kept backs in check with the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the second-lowest yards per carry allowed to zone runs (Taylor 69.4% zone). Week 12 Positional Value: RB2

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans: Evans is the WR11 in fantasy, ranking second in deep targets and 16th in red zone looks among wide receivers. Since Week 6, Indy has the highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL (89.4%). Against zone, Evans has had a 21.2% target share, a 42.2% air-yard share, 2.74 YPRR, and a 27.4% first-read share. Among 69 qualifying wide receivers against zone coverage, Evans ranks 11th in fantasy points per route run. Week 12 Positional Value: WR1

Chris Godwin: Godwin has had a terribly disappointing season as the WR39 in fantasy. He is 64th in deep targets and 13th in red zone targets among wide receivers. Godwin has finished as a WR3 or higher in only 50% of his games this season. Since Week 6, Indy has the highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL (89.4%). Against zone, Godwin has had a 20.4% target share, a 24.4% air-yard share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 25.7% first-read share. Among 69 qualifying wide receivers against zone coverage, he ranks 39th in fantasy points per route run. Week 12 Positional Value: WR3/4

Michael Pittman: Pittman is the WR15 in fantasy points per game, ranking third among wide receivers in red zone targets. In the four games with Minshew as the starter and Josh Downs fully healthy, Pittman had a 24.5% target share, a 25.7% air-yard share, 1.80 YPRR, and a 31.8% first-read share. In those four games, Pittman had ten red zone targets. Since Week 6, Tampa Bay has allowed the highest PPR points per target, the fourth-most receiving yards, and the most receiving touchdowns (tied) to perimeter wide receivers. Week 12 Positional Value: WR1

Josh Downs: Downs is the WR45 in fantasy points per game. He gutted through injuries in his last two games played, so that has taken the per-game average down. Downs has finished as a top-30 fantasy wideout in each of his last four fully healthy games (WR18, WR30, WR4, WR29). In the four games with Minshew as the starter and Downs fully healthy, he had a 20.9% target share, a 23.4% air-yard share, 2.05 YPRR, and a 23.6% first-read share. Downs should shred Tampa Bay’s pass defense. Since Week 6, the Bucs have allowed the second-highest PPR points per target and the most receiving touchdowns to slot receivers. Week 12 Positional Value: WR3 with WR2 upside

Tight Ends

Cade Otton: Otton is the TE18 in fantasy, ranking tenth in red zone targets among tight ends. Otton has finished as a TE1 in weekly fantasy scoring four times this season (TE11, TE12, TE3, TE12), including three times in his last five games. Since Week 6, Indy has the highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL (89.4%). Against zone coverage, Otton has had a 14.6% target share, 1.18 YPRR, and a 15.6% first-read share. Among 40 qualifying tight ends against zone, Otton ranks 27th in fantasy points per route run and expected fantasy points per route run. Otton could finish as a TE1 again this week against an Indy pass defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game and the eighth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 12 Positional Value: TE2 with TE1 upside

NFL

MLB

NBA

NHL

The Primer: Week 12 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Fantasy Football Primer

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts

Tight Ends

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