The Primer: Week 11 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos

• DEN -2, O/U 42.5
• Vikings vs. Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Joshua Dobbs under center, the Vikings have been 11th in neutral pace with the 13th-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Since Week 6, the Broncos have had the second-slowest neutral pace while operating with the second-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Joshua Dobbs: Dobbs has been one of the best feel-good stories of the season. He is the QB14 in fantasy points per game with top-eight fantasy finishes in 50% of his games played. The primary driver of his fantasy value has been his legs. Dobbs is ninth in red zone carries, second in rushing yards, and third in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. His passing metrics have been league-average or below. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 21st in passer rating, 30th in highly accurate throw rate, and 32nd in adjusted completion rate. Dobbs will have to get busy with his legs again this week against an improved Broncos pass defense. Since Week 5, they have ranked 14th in yards per attempt, eighth in passer rating, and fourth in fantasy points allowed via passing. Week 11 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

Russell Wilson: Mr. Unlimited has been limited to QB2 production this season as the QB16 in fantasy. He has three weeks this year as a QB1. He has offered flashes of his once prolific production, but they have been too infrequent. Wilson ranks 21st in yards per attempt and 17th in highly accurate throw rate and hero throw rate. Since Week 5, the Vikings pass defense has really gelled. They have smothered quarterbacks with the ninth-lowest passer rating, the 11th-lowest yards per attempt, and the 11th-lowest adjusted completion rate allowed. Brian Flores will blitz Wilson religiously this week. Minnesota still ranks first in blitz rate (49%). Against the blitz, Wilson has the sixth-lowest passing grade and the seventh-highest turnover-worthy play rate. Week 11 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Alexander Mattison: Mattison (concussion) didn’t practice on Wednesday, but he returned to a limited session on Thursday and had a full practice on Friday. He has been listed as questionable, with signs pointing toward him possibly gaining clearance to play this week. In his last three full games played, he played 53-61% of the snaps, averaging 15 touches and 56 total yards. Among 47 qualifying backs, Mattison ranks 32nd in explosive run rate and 36th in yards after contact per attempt. He has not been an impressive rusher this season at all. He does have a beautiful matchup this week that could help elevate his play. Since Week 5, Denver has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-highest rate of missed tackles per attempt, and the second-highest yards after contact per attempt. Mattison will split carries with Ty Chandler this week, but he could see 15-plus touches, and if he gets into the endzone, he could sneak into RB2 range this week. Week 11 Positional Value: RB3 with RB2 upside

Ty Chandler: Last week, with Mattison knocked out of the game, Chandler played 44% of the snaps with 15 carries and 45 rushing yards. With his limited workload this season, he has a 4.3% explosive run rate, only two missed tackles forced with 23 carries, and 2.0 yards after contact per attempt. None of these numbers inspire confidence. Chandler should split work with Mattison this week, but his star has dimmed, with Mattison likely suiting up. Chandler has been downgraded to a dicey flex play despite the plus rushing matchup. Since Week 5, Denver has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-highest rate of missed tackles per attempt, and the second-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 11 Positional Value: RB3/4 with RB3 upside

Javonte Williams: Since Week 7, Williams has played 52-63% of the snaps, averaging 24.3 touches and 101.3 total yards. Over the last three weeks, he has finished as the RB20, RB9, and RB5 in fantasy. Williams is ninth in explosive run rate and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, Minnesota remains a tough run defense to grind out production against. They have yielded the third-lowest explosive run rate, the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the 11th-lowest yards per carry to gap runs (Williams 51.4% gap). Williams will need volume to overcome this tough matchup. Week 11 Positional Value: RB1/2

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson: Jefferson was not activated from the IR and has been ruled out.

Jordan Addison: Addison is the WR17 in fantasy, ranking fourth in red zone targets and 29th in deep targets. Since playing at least 75% of the snaps beginning in Week 5, he has had a 20.2% target share, a 33.9% air-yard share, 2.00 YPRR, and a 23.7% first-read share. I expect all of these numbers to decline with Jefferson back. The question is not if but how much. Since Week 5, Denver has ranked 16th in PPR points per target with only two receiving touchdowns to perimeter wide receivers. Week 11 Positional Value: WR3

K.J. Osborn: Osborn has cleared the concussion protocol and will be back this week. Osborn is the WR56 in fantasy this season with a 14.6% target share, 16.6% air-yard share, and seven red zone targets (only two in his last four games played). Osborn has only two games this season as a WR3 or higher. Week 11 Positional Value: WR5

Courtland Sutton: Sutton is the WR28 in fantasy, ranking sixth in red zone targets. He has been a touchdown machine with seven scores (second-most). Sutton has had a 21.8% target share, a 37.2% air-yard share, 1.68 YPRR, and a 25.2% first-read share. Since Week 5, the Vikings have allowed the seventh-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 11 Positional Value: WR3/4

Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy is the WR55 in fantasy, with only one game surpassing 65 receiving yards. He has finished as a WR3 in only four games this season (WR33, WR29, WR29, WR32). He has only three red zone targets all season, with one touchdown. Jeudy has been droppable. Week 11 Positional Value: Droppable

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson is the TE2 in fantasy. He has been performing like Travis Kelce with Jefferson out. He has had at least 86 receiving yards in three of his last four games. Hockenson is first in targets, receptions, and receiving yards among tight ends. He gets a cakewalk matchup this week against a secondary that has allowed the second-highest fantasy points per game and the most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 11 Positional Value: TE1

CIN vs. BAL | PIT vs. CLE | CHI vs. DET | LAC vs. GB | LV vs. MIA | NYG vs. WAS | DAL vs. CAR | TEN vs. JAC | ARI vs. HOU | TB vs. SF | NYJ vs. BUF | SEA vs. LAR | MIN vs. DEN | PHI vs. KC

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• KC -3, O/U 45.5
• Eagles vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 5, the Eagles have had the seventh-slowest neutral pace while ranking 18th in neutral passing rate.
• Over their last five games, the Chiefs have had the sixth-slowest neutral pace while passing at the fourth-highest rate in close games.

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts: Hurts is the QB1 in fantasy. He is sixth in yards per attempt, first in CPOE, and fifth in hero throw rate. Kansas City has been a formidable pass defense all season. Since Week 5, they have allowed the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the 13th-lowest passer rating, and the sixth-lowest adjusted completion rate. Hurts can overcome any tough matchup in fantasy with his Konami code. He is first in red zone carries, third in rushing yards, and first in rushing touchdowns. Week 11 Positional Value: QB1

Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes is the QB5 in fantasy points per game. He just continues to do Mathomes things regardless of his receiving group. He is 12th in yards per attempt, 11th in passer rating, and seventh in CPOE. Mahomes faces off with a downgraded Philly pass defense. Since Week 5, they have allowed the seventh-highest passing yards per game, the fourth-most passing touchdowns, and the seventh-highest passer rating. Week 11 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

D’Andre Swift: Swift is the RB13 in fantasy points per game. He is 15th in snap share, 16th in opportunity share, and eighth in weight opportunities. Since Week 4, he has averaged 19.2 touches and 76.3 total yards. Swift hasn’t rushed for 100 yards since Week 3. He hasn’t finished with 100 total yards since Week 5. He’s been in a slump, relying on volume. He’s only scored three touchdowns across his last six games and a total of four this season. Among 47 qualifying backs, he is 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 34th in yards after contact per attempt. Swift could enjoy better-rushing production this week against the Chiefs, who, since Week 6, have allowed the 12th-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the seventh-highest yards before contact per attempt. Week 11 Positional Value: RB1

Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco is the RB21 in fantasy points per game, ranking 14th in opportunity share, 21st in snap share, and 16th in weight opportunities. Since Week 2, he has averaged 17 touches and 78.9 total yards. Among 47 qualifying backs, he ranks 14th in explosive run rate and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, the Eagles’ run defense has taken a step back, coughing up the sixth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and ranking 16th in yards after contact per attempt allowed. Week 11 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown: Brown is the WR3 in fantasy, ranking seventh in receptions, second in receiving yards, and tenth in targets. His last game against Dallas broke a streak of six straight 100-yard receiving days. Brown has a 29.5% target share, a 49.3% air-yard share, 3.30 YPRR, and a 41.6% first-read share. Since Week 6, the Chiefs have utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (66.7%). Against two high, Brown’s numbers remain strong, but they do dip as he has had a 24.7% target share, a 47.6% air-yard share, 2.50 YPRR, and a 37.0% first-read share. To be clear, those are still WR1 usage numbers. Week 11 Positional Value: WR1

DeVonta Smith: The Slim Reaper is WR29 in fantasy, ranking 21st in deep target. Overall, he has had a 19% target share, a 28.8% air-yard share, 1.65 YPRR, and a 22.6% first-read share. Since Week 6, the Chiefs have utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (66.7%). Against two high, Smith has had an 18.0% target share, a 31.9% air-yard share, 2.03 YPRR, and a 25.9% first-read share. The Eagles could lean on Smith more heavily this week with Kansas City’s love for two high and the Eagles lacking Dallas Goedert. Week 11 Positional Value: WR1/2

Rashee Rice: Since Week 6, Rice has had a 50.3% route run rate, an 11.3% target share, 2.41 YPRR, and a 15.2% first-read share. Rice is the WR48 in fantasy points per game, ranking 17th in red zone targets. Since Week 5, the Eagles have allowed the 13th-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers (Rice 67% slot). If this game shoots out, Rice should be the second passing game option behind Kelce. Week 11 Positional Value: WR3/4

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: Kelce remains the TE1 in fantasy. He is second in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and target share among tight ends. Matchups do not matter with Kelce. Maybe Taylor Swift splits do, but I won’t get into that. Kelce never leaves your fantasy lineup except for bye weeks, and even then, he’s cheering on your fantasy squad from the bench. Week 11 Positional Value: THE TE1

CIN vs. BAL | PIT vs. CLE | CHI vs. DET | LAC vs. GB | LV vs. MIA | NYG vs. WAS | DAL vs. CAR | TEN vs. JAC | ARI vs. HOU | TB vs. SF | NYJ vs. BUF | SEA vs. LAR | MIN vs. DEN | PHI vs. KC

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens

• BAL -3.5, O/U 46
• Bengals vs. Ravens Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 5 the Bengals have been stuck in the mud while remaining pass happy. They have had the second-slowest neutral pace and the third-highest neutral passing rate.
• The pace of this game will crawl. Over their last six games Baltimore has had the fifth-slowest neutral pace with the 12th-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow: Since returning to full health, Burrow has been incredible. Since Week 5, he has been tenth in yards per attempt, fifth in CPOE, and the QB4 in fantasy points per game. Over his last five games, he is third in passing yards per game and passing touchdowns. Over the same span, Baltimore has remained a quarterback-smothering pass defense. They have held quarterbacks to the lowest passer rating, the second-fewest passing touchdowns (tied), and the seventh-lowest yards per attempt. In his last four meetings against Baltimore, Burrow has not surpassed 225 passing yards in any game and has only one contest with multiple passing scores. Week 11 Positional Value: Low-end QB1

Lamar Jackson: While Jackson’s fantasy output has been disappointing lately, that doesn’t mean that he is playing badly. Actually, it’s quite far from it. Jackson is enjoying arguably his best season as a passer, ranking fifth in yards per attempt, seventh in adjusted completion rate, and sixth in hero throw rate. Jackson has five weeks as the QB9 or better this season. Since Week 5, the Bengals’ pass defense has still been among the league’s best, but they have allowed a ton of yardage to quarterbacks. Over their last five games, they have given up the third-highest yards per attempt and sixth-highest passing yards per game while also forcing the second-most interceptions with the ninth-lowest passer rating allowed. Since Week 5, the Bengals are 18th in fantasy points allowed via passing. Jackson might not walk away from Week 11 with a monster game, but he can still squeak out a QB1 week. Week 11 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Joe Mixon: Mixon remains the Bengals’ workhorse, averaging 18.1 touches and 77 total yards while playing at least 70% of the snaps in every game since Week 2. Mixon’s tackle-breaking metrics have rebounded nicely this season, as he was near the bottom of the league in every category last season. Among 46 qualifying backs, he is 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 21st in yards after contact per attempt. He remains a goal-line hammer, ranking tenth in carries inside the five-yard line. The Bengals should feed Mixon this week and lean on their ground game. Since Week 5, Baltimore has been a team that you can run the ball against. They have given up the 12th-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Over their last six games, they have allowed the third-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Mixon 52.6% gap). Week 11 Positional Value: RB1

Weeks 9-10

Gus Edwards: The blowout game in Week 9 muddies up the usage numbers, but this backfield has been split in three ways over the last two weeks. Overall, Edwards has averaged 12.8 touches and 61.3 total yards. Edwards continues to surprise me in elusiveness metrics, ranking 21st in explosive run rate and 24th in yards after contact per attempt. Baltimore should lean on their ground game this week. Cincinnati is another team that has been gashed by the run. Since Week 5, they have allowed the 12th-highest rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest explosive run rate, and the fourth-highest missed tackles per attempt. Edwards disappointed me last week in a good matchup, but he will come through this week. Week 11 Positional Value: RB2/3

Justice Hill: Hill has been a flex-worthy player this season, averaging 8.4 touches and 36.1 total yards. He has five weeks as an RB3 or better this season. My worry with Hill has nothing to do with Hill but the explosive plays that Keaton Mitchell continues to stack anytime he gets the ball. Hill has been productive with his touches, ranking 26th in explosive run rate and 14th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Hill is a dicey flex despite the good matchup this week, as Mitchell could eat into his work. The Bengals have allowed the 12th-most rushing yards and rushing touchdowns this season. Week 11 Positional Value: Shaky flex play

Keaton Mitchell: Mitchell has been lightning in a bottle the last two weeks, turning his 14 touches into 200 total yards. Mitchell’s numbers have been ridiculous. Madden on easy mode type of numbers. With his 12 rushing attempts, he has 12 missed tackles forced and 12.0 yards after contact per attempt. The problem is he has played only 27 snaps across the last two games, but Baltimore can ignore this type of playmaking for only so long. If he gets a bump in playing time, he will destroy the Bengals this week. Since Week 5, they have allowed the 12th-highest rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest explosive run rate, and the fourth-highest missed tackles per attempt. Week 11 Positional Value: Moonshot flex play

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase: Chase is the WR8 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 27.8% target share (tenth), a 39.7% air-yard share (15th), and a 35.2% first-read share (ninth) with 2.30 yards per route run (YPRR). Since Week 5, the Ravens have played two high at the eighth-highest rate (52.5%). Against two-high, Chase’s air-yard share has increased to 41.4%, and his YPRR has jumped to 3.14. Chase will have his work cut out for him against a secondary that has allowed the lowest PPR points per target and only two receiving touchdowns to perimeter wide receivers. Week 11 Positional Value: WR1

Tee Higgins: Higgins has been ruled out (hamstring).

Tyler Boyd: Last week, with Chase not 100% and Higgins out, Boyd led the team with a 30% target share while also racking up a 30% air-yard share, 2.79 YPRR, and a 36.7% first-read share. It was a huge game from Boyd. It’s been a while since we have seen a spike week from Boyd, regardless of the situation. That was Boyd’s first 100-yard receiving game since Week 7 of last season and his first game with double-digit targets since Week 4 of the 2021 season. Overall, Boyd has seen a 16.9% target share, a 19.2% air-yard share, and a 19.8% first-read share with 1.30 YPRR. Prior to last week, he had seen three red zone targets in his last four games, so his high-leverage usage was quietly increasing. Since Week 5, the Ravens have played two high at the eighth-highest rate (52.5%). Boyd is third on the team in end zone targets against two-high (three). Boyd will run about 88% of his routes against Kyle Hamilton (57.1% catch rate and 78.1 passer rating). Since Week 5, the Ravens have allowed the ninth-lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 11 Positional Value: WR3/4

Trenton Irwin: In Irwin’s two games as a starter for the Bengals, he has had a 71.4% route run rate, 16.3% target share, 27.7% air-yard share, 1.63 YPRR, and an 18.0% first read share. Irwin has one end zone target in those games while finishing with at least 54 receiving yards in each game. There are plenty of flexes that you could do worse by playing this week, but the tough matchup probably halts his hot streak as a starter. Week 11 Positional Value: WR4/5

Zay Flowers: Flowers has a 23.6% target share, a 25.8% air-yard share, 1.78 YPRR, and a 26.2% first-read share. Sadly, he has only one end zone target this season, but he is second on the team in red zone targets, behind only Mark Andrews. Since Week 5, the Bengals have the eighth-highest rate of single-high (59.9%). Against single-high, Flowers has seen increases in usage and productivity across the board with a 25.5% target share, a 28.1% air-yard share, 2.07 YPRR, and a 26.9% first-read share. Flowers will run about 70% of his routes against Cam Taylor-Britt (55.3% catch rate and 60.1 passer rating) and D.J. Turner (45.8% catch rate and 76.4 passer rating). This could be a sneaky spot for a big game from Flowers. Since Week 5, the Bengals have allowed the seventh-highest PPR points per target to outside wide receivers. Week 11 Positional Value: WR3

Rashod Bateman: Last week, Bateman assumed a starting workload for the first time this season with a 76.7% route run rate, a 17.4% target share, and a 22.2% first-read share. I’m not rushing to start Bateman, but if you have a dire flex situation, Bateman could fit the bill. The matchup is there for him to surprise. Since Week 5, the Bengals have allowed the seventh-highest PPR points per target to outside wide receivers. Bateman will run about 85% of his routes against Cam Taylor-Britt (55.3% catch rate and 60.1 passer rating) and D.J. Turner (45.8% catch rate and 76.4 passer rating). Week 11 Positional Value: WR5/6

Odell Beckham Jr.: Beckham Jr. is droppable at this point. Last week, he only saw a 36.7% route run rate and a 4.3% target share. He’s been a part-time player in this offense all season. It’s time to cut bait.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews: Andrews is the TE3 in fantasy points per game. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, he is third in target share (22.1%), fifth in YPRR (2.05), second in end zone targets (six), and fourth in first-read share (23.6%). Andrews should crush this week against a Bengals defense that has allowed the fourth-highest fantasy points per game and the third-most receiving yards to tight ends. Week 11 Positional Value: TE1

CIN vs. BAL | PIT vs. CLE | CHI vs. DET | LAC vs. GB | LV vs. MIA | NYG vs. WAS | DAL vs. CAR | TEN vs. JAC | ARI vs. HOU | TB vs. SF | NYJ vs. BUF | SEA vs. LAR | MIN vs. DEN | PHI vs. KC

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All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, 4for4, Rotoviz, RBdsm.com, The Edge from the 33rd Team, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.